All Things Jimmy Butler Containment Thread

[Texas Chuck]

So all the feedback I received was you guys want a containment thread. Apologies to any of you who prefer not, but none of you spoke up so going this route for now. We will not be merging any existing threads into this, but please post your new Jimmy Butler trade itt. Or your Jimmy speculation. All goes in here now.

We are getting close enough to the deadline that we need to make room for some other topics to breathe as well.

Thanks all!

[Texas Chuck]

I'll lead this off with the obvious: If the Bucks don't want Beal (conflicting reporting here) or he doesn't want them(his agent says they've okayed nothing), it seems like there is no Beal landing spot which would be Phoenix is out.

So what does Jimmy do? Miami is trying to make it impossible for him to stay. So what does he want if no team will extend him?

I know Freak is optimistic Miami is going to get what they want out of this, but its getting harder and harder to see a great resolution here.

[BBallFreak]

So all the feedback I received was you guys want a containment thread. Apologies to any of you who prefer not, but none of you spoke up so going this route for now. We will not be merging any existing threads into this, but please post your new Jimmy Butler trade itt. Or your Jimmy speculation. All goes in here now.

We are getting close enough to the deadline that we need to make room for some other topics to breathe as well.

Thanks all!

Thank you. This is going to make it a lot easier! Lol!

I guess the one that makes the most sense is the rumored deal between Milwaukee, Miami, and Phoenix with one or two other teams involved (one to absorb Pat C) where Miami gets Middleton and either Portis or an expiring contract, Milwaukee gets Beal, and Phoenix gets Jimmy. Picks distributed as appropriate. This, of course, assumes that the Bucks want Beal and vice versa.

But I think that's the overall bones of it.

[Scoot McGroot]

I'll lead this off with the obvious: If the Bucks don't want Beal (conflicting reporting here) or he doesn't want them(his agent says they've okayed nothing), it seems like there is no Beal landing spot which would be Phoenix is out.

The hardest part is that Phoenix is kind of doing the best they can here. They can't reasonably bring options to Beal until they have a couple possibilities lined up. You just can't burn that bridge with Beal until you're absolutely ready to pull the trigger. So, until he's dealt, I just don't think we can trust any reports of where Beal may or may not be willing to accept a trade.

And if Beal doesn't accept a trade, there's just absolutely no route to Phoenix. Which may change Butler's math. Or it may not. He's also mercurial enough that we can't assume, or rule out, anything at all.

[SA37]

I'll lead this off with the obvious: If the Bucks don't want Beal (conflicting reporting here) or he doesn't want them(his agent says they've okayed nothing), it seems like there is no Beal landing spot which would be Phoenix is out.

So what does Jimmy do? Miami is trying to make it impossible for him to stay. So what does he want if no team will extend him?

I know Freak is optimistic Miami is going to get what they want out of this, but its getting harder and harder to see a great resolution here.

Yeah, with a no-trade clause, it's hard to imagine more than 1-2 other teams that might be willing to take Beal and be acceptable to Beal.

Using past trades as a guide, Riley tends to only pull the trigger when he thinks he is getting the best player in a deal. This is a unique situation, so I don't know that Miami will be able to pull something like that off. But, at least from the most recent ESPN reporting, it seems like Miami has a couple of options it's at least considering. I'd also point out Riley has a lot of disdain for the Draft and has never shown any interest in holding on to, let alone stockpiling, draft capital. But again, it's a unique situation.

If anything gets done, I think it'll be a 5-6 team deal. The guys who I know Miami has had interest in in the past and are likely available now are Julius Randle, Collin Sexton, and Marcus Smart. Middleton and Portis/Lopez strike me as guys who would check a lot of boxes for Riley. I'm inclined to believe John Collins would be amongst the group of players Miami would want/accept back if Utah were involved.

The other thing is I think Miami may want to send Rozier out depending on the teams involved in a deal. Sexton and Smart are in that salary range. I have a feeling Robinson and Jaquez Jr might also be on their way out if the deal gets big enough, but in the past Riley has been pretty reluctant to make massive overhauls like that. The only time I can remember him doing so was back in the early days with Miami when he traded half the team to acquire Tim Hardaway, Walt Williams, and others and Miami rode a historic Rex Chapman evening over the eventual 72-10 Bulls.

[winforlose]

I'll lead this off with the obvious: If the Bucks don't want Beal (conflicting reporting here) or he doesn't want them(his agent says they've okayed nothing), it seems like there is no Beal landing spot which would be Phoenix is out.

So what does Jimmy do? Miami is trying to make it impossible for him to stay. So what does he want if no team will extend him?

I know Freak is optimistic Miami is going to get what they want out of this, but its getting harder and harder to see a great resolution here.

Yeah, with a no-trade clause, it's hard to imagine more than 1-2 other teams that might be willing to take Beal and be acceptable to Beal.

Using past trades as a guide, Riley tends to only pull the trigger when he thinks he is getting the best player in a deal. This is a unique situation, so I don't know that Miami will be able to pull something like that off. But, at least from the most recent ESPN reporting, it seems like Miami has a couple of options it's at least considering. I'd also point out Riley has a lot of disdain for the Draft and has never shown any interest in holding on to, let alone stockpiling, draft capital. But again, it's a unique situation.

If anything gets done, I think it'll be a 5-6 team deal. The guys who I know Miami has had interest in in the past and are likely available now are Julius Randle, Collin Sexton, and Marcus Smart. Middleton and Portis/Lopez strike me as guys who would check a lot of boxes for Riley. I'm inclined to believe John Collins would be amongst the group of players Miami would want/accept back if Utah were involved.

The other thing is I think Miami may want to send Rozier out depending on the teams involved in a deal. Sexton and Smart are in that salary range. I have a feeling Robinson and Jaquez Jr might also be on their way out if the deal gets big enough, but in the past Riley has been pretty reluctant to make massive overhauls like that. The only time I can remember him doing so was back in the early days with Miami when he traded half the team to acquire Tim Hardaway, Walt Williams, and others and Miami rode a historic Rex Chapman evening over the eventual 72-10 Bulls.

It’s even worse than that. With the 2nd apron and CBA finding a team to take Beal is harder than ever. Teams cannot aggregate or the may end up hard capped under the 2nd apron, and most teams don’t have a 50 million dollar player to swap for Beal. If the Heat won’t take him, it is extremely hard to get Beal anywhere else.

[SA37]

It’s even worse than that. With the 2nd apron and CBA finding a team to take Beal is harder than ever. Teams cannot aggregate or the may end up hard capped under the 2nd apron, and most teams don’t have a 50 million dollar player to swap for Beal. If the Heat won’t take him, it is extremely hard to get Beal anywhere else.

There's still plenty of garbage that can be tossed around:

Candidates might be Ben Simmons (~$40M expiring), Zach Lavine (~$45-50M), Jordan Poole (~$30M), Tobias Harris and THJ (~$43M combined), KCP and J Isaac (~$45M combined), or Jerami Grant and D Ayton (~$65M combined).

If Phoenix went ahead and made the 3-for-1 deal they did, they 1) must have a strong feeling the Butler deal will go down (perhaps a tentative agreement while both they and Miami look to expand the deal/find back up plans?) and 2) have another player in their sights (Lavine? Ingram?) in case it falls through.

[VaDe255]

I don’t see why Milwaukee would even entertain the idea of going after Beal.
They’re in a good spot right now, winning games with their current core, and Khris/Portis are key rotation pieces. Khris, in particular, was huge for them in last year’s playoffs. It wouldn’t make sense to risk handcuffing their flexibility for the next two years to bring in Beal, especially given his performance over the last two seasons. Even if some of it is due to his role, he hasn’t had much of a positive impact.

As for Miami and Butler, I think the most realistic scenario is either another team other than Phoenix emerges as a suitor or Jimmy ends up staying past the deadline. If he does stay, it’s hard to imagine him continuing to disengage for the rest of the season.

He’d have to prove he’s still a positive contributor, maintaining his value and competitiveness will only help him in the long run.
Unless Jimmy is just ready to retire and do the absolute minimum to get his money, like he is doing now and then opting in, to again do the minimum.

Who will want a 36y year old Jimmy next year at 50m? And more importantly who is giving him another contract, if he just does the absolute minimum and you can't even be sure that it's not just decline?

[BBallFreak]

Here's what Miami beat writer Barry Jackson has to say about Miami's expectations in trade for Butler, as posted by Kobewade11

Here’s how the Heat generally views what it wants in return for Butler in what likely would be a multi-team trade: If Miami cannot land an All-Star player in return (highly unlikely), the Heat would be open to taking pretty good players with expiring contracts.

If the Heat is going to take back pretty good players with another year left on their contracts beyond this season, Miami wants an additional carrot or two — likely a draft pick.

The Heat has no interest in taking back big money that extends beyond next season because it’s eyeing the summer of 2026 as the ideal time to have significant cap space, considering that could be the best free agent class in history, headlined by Luka Doncic. (Most of the top players likely will sign extensions before that and won’t get to free agency, but historically, some players like to be relocated, and Miami would be in prime position to pounce.) As it stands, Miami has only $85 million committed for the 2026-27 season, well under the $170.6 million projected cap that season.

The Heat’s goal remains to trade Butler, but Miami is disinclined to take what it considers a bad deal. ▪ Even if the Suns are willing to give Miami three first-rounders, accepting Beal’s contract still seems to be a non-starter for Miami, barring a change of heart. Taking back Beal would leave Miami $5 million over the luxury tax line next season. And paying him the $57 million he’s due in 2026-27 would leave Miami with about $28 million in cap space, not enough to offer anyone a max contract that summer.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article297667123.html#storylink=cpy

[NYG]

I think the Butler trade will be an off-season deal given he wants the Suns and Phoenix can't trade Beal right now.

[gswhoops]

I will keep banging the Butler to Milwaukee for Middleton/Portis/1st drum until a trade happens or the deadline passes.

[gswhoops]

I'll lead this off with the obvious: If the Bucks don't want Beal (conflicting reporting here) or he doesn't want them(his agent says they've okayed nothing), it seems like there is no Beal landing spot which would be Phoenix is out.

The hardest part is that Phoenix is kind of doing the best they can here. They can't reasonably bring options to Beal until they have a couple possibilities lined up. You just can't burn that bridge with Beal until you're absolutely ready to pull the trigger. So, until he's dealt, I just don't think we can trust any reports of where Beal may or may not be willing to accept a trade.

And if Beal doesn't accept a trade, there's just absolutely no route to Phoenix. Which may change Butler's math. Or it may not. He's also mercurial enough that we can't assume, or rule out, anything at all.

Yeah to be real this is why I never really saw Butler to Phoenix as a realistic outcome. They don't have the assets to turn Beal's massive negative contract into Butler no matter how many additional teams they dress it up with. Someone's got to take a raw deal for it to happen.

[MasterIchiro]

Suns have 3 firsts to move Beal and add Butler. Perhaps they have insufficient assets. But they also have Dunn.

If their hardline stance is Dunn stays in any Butler trade with Beal going out as negative salary, they may not cross the finish line.

I don't think they should surrender Dunn.

But it would be nice to unclog the toilet for this trade deadline.

Butler and Beal are holding up literally everything.

[winforlose]

It’s even worse than that. With the 2nd apron and CBA finding a team to take Beal is harder than ever. Teams cannot aggregate or the may end up hard capped under the 2nd apron, and most teams don’t have a 50 million dollar player to swap for Beal. If the Heat won’t take him, it is extremely hard to get Beal anywhere else.

There's still plenty of garbage that can be tossed around:

Candidates might be Ben Simmons (~$40M expiring), Zach Lavine (~$45-50M), Jordan Poole (~$30M), Tobias Harris and THJ (~$43M combined), KCP and J Isaac (~$45M combined), or Jerami Grant and D Ayton (~$65M combined).

If Phoenix went ahead and made the 3-for-1 deal they did, they 1) must have a strong feeling the Butler deal will go down (perhaps a tentative agreement while both they and Miami look to expand the deal/find back up plans?) and 2) have another player in their sights (Lavine? Ingram?) in case it falls through.

Remember the Suns are 2nd apron and cannot aggregate, take back more money than what is outgoing, and must have at least 14 players. Even before the no trade clause is factored in, this is a mess. Grant and Ayton are automatically out. Simmons requires another team to take $7,922,792 of additional salary with non coming back to the Nets. That either means 2 more players out or Melton. Then you start to get into filling the roster back to 14 while the Nets are hard capped. I could go on. The situation is just more complicated than it has ever been because of the era we are living in.

[Bentley1225]

I’ll never understand why Washington ever gave Beal that contract AND a NTC coupled with the fact the fit with the Suns never seemed ideal.

I don’t know what team has interest in Beal that he would likely move his NTC for to help facilitate a deal between Phoenix and Miami. The market for him coupled with his power to chose is non-existent unless he plays better between now and end of season to warrant a deal getting done this off-season.

[oldncreaky]

But it would be nice to unclog the toilet for this trade deadline.

Butler and Beal are holding up literally everything.

[NYG]

.

Can the Bucks aggregate salary if the end the trade below the apron or would they need to get below the apron first then make the deal?

[BBallFreak]

I think the Butler trade will be an off-season deal given he wants the Suns and Phoenix can't trade Beal right now.

It won't be any different in the off-season. He'll still be just as untradable. I'm not even sure you'll be able to find a taker in his last year.

[Godaddycurse]

Bad idea if Dallas wants to punt on season due to injuries to lively/doncic

Dallas trade: Irving, Kleber, Thompson (separate transaction)
Dallas receive: Beal, Allen, better of ORL/DEN 2025 1st, better of PHX/ORL 2026 (top 4 protected, then unprotected) 1st, worst of UTAH/CLE/MINN 2029 1st

Orlando trade: Wagner, Harris, Anthony, Howard, better of ORL/DEN 2025 1st, better of PHX/ORL 2026 (top 4 protected, then unprotected) 1st
Orlando receive: Irving, JHS (separate transaction)

Phoenix trade: Beal, Allen (separate transaction), 3 1sts they own
Phoenix receive: Butler, Vincent, Wood

LAL trade: Vincent, JHS, Wood (separate transaction)
LAL receive: Thompson

Miami trade Butler
Miami receive: Brogdon, JV, Harris, worst of CLE/MINN/UTAH 2025 1st

Washington trade: JV, Brogdon
Washington receive: Wagner, Howard, Anthony, Kleber, worst of CLE/MINN/UTAH 2027 1st

add 2nds as needed (to washington i think?)

Why for Dallas: Avoid paying Irving a max extension into his mid 30s and retool w/ Beal and picks. Allen also helps them more next few yrs vs Thompson
Why for Orlando: Add a great backcourt fit to suggs
Why for Phoenix: get Butler as rumored
Why for LAL: add spacing
Why for Miami: Huge savings in tax and brogdon/JV sorta helps with their playoff push this year
Why for Washington: eat salary for a future first

Thompson for Allen for Vincent/JHS/Wood is a separate transaction to be cap compliant

[winforlose]

.

Can the Bucks aggregate salary if the end the trade below the apron or would they need to get below the apron first then make the deal?

The Bucks would need to duck below the 2nd apron to aggregate. That means moving Pat Con to another team for nothing back. Then, the act of aggregation creates a hard cap at the 2nd apron threshold. So the Bucks would need to trade under and stay under the 2nd apron. Also you should remember that once you are a first apron team you cannot increase your overall salary in trade.