RealGM

Phoenix trades: Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, 2029 UTA/CLE/MIN 1st (least favorable to Utah)
in: Lauri Markkanen, Fred VanVleet
Phoenix trades for dollar store Durant (Lauri) who is still very, very good but fits Booker's timeline. They also swap Beal for a very good point guard who might be a longer term piece and set themselves up to have significant cap space in the 2026 offseason with Booker/Lauri being their only major deals. I think at this point they just tell Beal that if he stays they are tearing it down to the studs and he won't play much, but that they've found a team who will release him so that he can just sign elsewhere. Their recent trades should allow them to get under the second apron in the offseason, but after this they'd be comfortably below (haven't done the math to see if it gets them below the first apron).

Houston trades: Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr., 2027 PHX/BRK/HOU 1st (two lowest to Utah), 2029 DAL/PHX/HOU 1st (most favorable to Utah)
in: Kevin Durant, Svi Mykhailiuk
Houston gets Durant while maintaining their best pick in 2027 (b/c Brooklyn's short-term outlook isn't that good) and there is still a decent chance that a combination of mismanagement from Phoenix and Dallas still nets them a lottery pick in 2029.

Utah trades: Lauri Markkanen, Kenyon Martin Jr., Svi Mykhailiuk [57 x 1.25 = 71.25]
in: Bradley Beal (waived), Jabari Smith Jr. [69], 2027 PHX/BRK/HOU 1st (two lowest to Utah), 2029 DAL/PHX/HOU 1st (most favorable to Utah), 2029 UTA/CLE/MIN 1st (least favorable to Utah)
Is getting Beal bad? Absolutely. I would consider the 2029 UTA/CLE/MIN 1st + one of the 2027 PHX/BRK/HOU 1sts as adequate compensation for that extra year, though. So this comes down to Smith + the other 2027 pick + the 2029 pick. YMMV on the value of that (Lauri's value has certainly declined this year even if the numbers are a result of contextual stuff - i.e., our shameless tank), but I think the 2029 1st is potentially the most individually valuable asset we would get for Lauri. I still feel good that the 2031 PHX pick isn't horribly devalued by this deal. If the 2025 and 2026 drafts go in our favor then we could be looking at an extremely young core that is very good and have a bunch of picks we can deal if a superstar becomes available.

There is just no way Houston both pays that much value for Durant AND Phoenix dumps Beal instead of taking on the value.

It's also inconceivable that Beal gets bought out for 111 Million.

ReggiesKnicks wrote:There is just no way Houston both pays that much value for Durant AND Phoenix dumps Beal instead of taking on the value.

It's also inconceivable that Beal gets bought out for 110 Million.

(1) I think on the premise that Phoenix doesn't want to rebuild it is very plausible that they flip value from a Durant deal for a better player;
(2) I don't think it is inconceivable that a team would be open to pocketing assets for taking Beal's last year.

The first year is kind of irrelevant, Utah is sending out matching salary for Beal so the only difference in $ is Smith being added to the team here. I am def. open to the idea that Houston just doesn't want to pay for Durant and/or that Durant doesn't want to go there.

Not interested in Durant and he doesn't have that level of value.

babyjax13 wrote:

ReggiesKnicks wrote:There is just no way Houston both pays that much value for Durant AND Phoenix dumps Beal instead of taking on the value.

It's also inconceivable that Beal gets bought out for 110 Million.

(1) I think on the premise that Phoenix doesn't want to rebuild it is very plausible that they flip value from a Durant deal for a better player;
(2) I don't think it is inconceivable that a team would be open to pocketing assets for taking Beal's last year.

The first year is kind of irrelevant, Utah is sending out matching salary for Beal so the only difference in $ is Smith being added to the team here. I am def. open to the idea that Houston just doesn't want to pay for Durant and/or that Durant doesn't want to go there.

I get as a fan of a team you want your team to actually commit to a full tank-rebuild and will do so at any cost, but teams don't just buy out $110 Million of salary. That's just not something any business person (An NBA Owner) would do.

As a fan of Utah, why do you think they signed Lauri to the extension at the time they did?

Do you think Lauri likes being on a dumpster fire for 3 years with no light at the end of the tunnel barring a superstar trade?

I'd be worried if Lauri asked out behind doors this summer, though getting a pick in the early lottery (3-6) as the centerpiece does appear lucrative.

A more realistic scenario could be San Antonio. They could offer up the 2025 Hawks pick + Sochan + Future 1st + Barnes and other filler.

ReggiesKnicks wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:

ReggiesKnicks wrote:There is just no way Houston both pays that much value for Durant AND Phoenix dumps Beal instead of taking on the value.

It's also inconceivable that Beal gets bought out for 110 Million.

(1) I think on the premise that Phoenix doesn't want to rebuild it is very plausible that they flip value from a Durant deal for a better player;
(2) I don't think it is inconceivable that a team would be open to pocketing assets for taking Beal's last year.

The first year is kind of irrelevant, Utah is sending out matching salary for Beal so the only difference in $ is Smith being added to the team here. I am def. open to the idea that Houston just doesn't want to pay for Durant and/or that Durant doesn't want to go there.

I get as a fan of a team you want your team to actually commit to a full tank-rebuild and will do so at any cost, but teams don't just buy out $110 Million of salary. That's just not something any business person (An NBA Owner) would do.

As a fan of Utah, why do you think they signed Lauri to the extension at the time they did?

Do you think Lauri likes being on a dumpster fire for 3 years with no light at the end of the tunnel barring a superstar trade?

I'd be worried if Lauri asked out behind doors this summer, though getting a pick in the early lottery (3-6) as the centerpiece does appear lucrative.

A more realistic scenario could be San Antonio. They could offer up the 2025 Hawks pick + Sochan + Future 1st + Barnes and other filler.

Lauri has expressed several times he wants to stay, but that could well change by the end of the year. I'd definitely like a San Antonio package - though they can keep Sochan.

Not interested from Utahs point of view.

Yeah, this move is fairly reasonable outside of the Beal portion. Ryan Smith is super cheap so he would never agree to fully buy out Beal's $110m. And Beal would only agree to be traded to Utah if he got waived while keeping all the money.

This trade is also so catastrophic for Ainge's career in particular (as he will have humiliated himself by blowing up Lauri's value) that it can only happen if both Zanik and Ainge have been fired for incompetence.

I don’t think that makes sense for Houston

Durant at 37 on a 1 year deal would have to be really cheap, if a high bidder comes along and sees him as the final piece for a 2026 championship run they should have him

Lauri makes more sense as a target for Houston here

Imagine if Durant had this value he would had been traded at the deadline.

This makes absolutely no sense for Utah.