RealGM

6'6 215lb 23 years
How much value could the Lakers recover for him..?
In his first year as a rookie, he is emerging as an elite shooter with good athleticism.

FWIW he and Vincent or Kleber combine to make about $15 million, and all three combine to make about $26 million, so there is some room to aggregate with expiring contracts. They also have Rui's $18 million and DFS' $15 million if they are open to parting with decent role players.

At $26 million they can reasonably salary match (maybe needing to make some other moves to navigate luxury tax, etc.): Nic Claxton, KCP, Cam Johnson, Jarrett Allen, and Jakob Poeltl (among many).

At $15.5 million: Isaiah Stewart, Daniel Gafford, Bobby Portis, Coby White, Obi Toppin, and Terrance Mann.

Obviously value exchanging either direction might be needed depending on the player, but these seem like some interesting targets to me? Less so on the second list other than maybe Gafford ...

babyjax13 wrote:FWIW he and Vincent or Kleber combine to make about $15 million, and all three combine to make about $26 million, so there is some room to aggregate with expiring contracts. They also have Rui's $18 million and DFS' $15 million if they are open to parting with decent role players.

At $26 million they can reasonably salary match (maybe needing to make some other moves to navigate luxury tax, etc.): Nic Claxton, KCP, Cam Johnson, Jarrett Allen, and Jakob Poeltl (among many).

At $15.5 million: Isaiah Stewart, Daniel Gafford, Bobby Portis, Coby White, Obi Toppin, and Terrance Mann.

Obviously value exchanging either direction might be needed depending on the player, but these seem like some interesting targets to me? Less so on the second list other than maybe Gafford ...

my idea behind this..would it be to get draft capital (or a different stat prospect) from say Magic or Houston for a FRP? (they fill a need in a rookie contract and you know what he gets..he'll have a long NBA career)..maybe to the Nets (with surplus picks)...then redirect it to the Jazz and give Angie the overpayment she wants for Kessler after the draft...
unprotect FRP27
Swap FRP 2030 and 2032
Unprotected FRP 2031..
FRP obtained from Knecht for Kessler and some SRP...

Jazz draft Sorber/Newell or Fleming with Wolves pick...avoid paying Kessler and get more future assets

Maybe I'm off base here but I don't think Knecht has meaningfully improved his value since being drafted, he's pretty much been as expected despite some initial hype early in the season. He was the 17th overall pick as an older prospect in a weak draft class so best case if you are trying to trade him for a 1st its probably for a pick in the late 20s in this draft if a team has a specific need to fill, or a protected 1st (turns into seconds) deal for a future pick and even then a team might not want to handcuff themselves.

Astaluego wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:FWIW he and Vincent or Kleber combine to make about $15 million, and all three combine to make about $26 million, so there is some room to aggregate with expiring contracts. They also have Rui's $18 million and DFS' $15 million if they are open to parting with decent role players.

At $26 million they can reasonably salary match (maybe needing to make some other moves to navigate luxury tax, etc.): Nic Claxton, KCP, Cam Johnson, Jarrett Allen, and Jakob Poeltl (among many).

At $15.5 million: Isaiah Stewart, Daniel Gafford, Bobby Portis, Coby White, Obi Toppin, and Terrance Mann.

Obviously value exchanging either direction might be needed depending on the player, but these seem like some interesting targets to me? Less so on the second list other than maybe Gafford ...

my idea behind this..would it be to get draft capital (or a different stat prospect) from say Magic or Houston for a FRP? (they fill a need in a rookie contract and you know what he gets..he'll have a long NBA career)..maybe to the Nets (with surplus picks)...then redirect it to the Jazz and give Angie the overpayment she wants for Kessler after the draft...
unprotect FRP27
Swap FRP 2030 and 2032
Unprotected FRP 2031..
FRP obtained from Knecht for Kessler and some SRP...

Jazz draft Sorber/Newell or Fleming with Wolves pick...avoid paying Kessler and get more future assets

Ah, yes, the third team issue is hard. I'd rather keep Kessler, but I could imagine the right value coming along to tip the balance. I would argue that unprotecting the 27 pick and adding swaps in 2030 and 2032 is pretty marginal value, so this is mostly just Kessler for a 2031 1st + whatever Knecht returns which isn't super appealing. Obviously there is the chance of freak injuries, etc. that make those swaps exercisable so it isn't no value, it is just unlikely value.

Unless the Mark Williams non-trade poisoned the well, I'm not sure LA should trade him at this point? Seems like a good movement shooter who can also do a little secondary creation would be a nice fit next to Luka on a post-LeBron Lakers team.

He's in that grey area as a prospect where he's shown enough to be more than just a throw-in but not enough to anchor a trade for a contributor by himself, so you're likely stuck overpaying for a guy like Claxton or Zubac, which I'm not sure is the right approach.

I want my blazers to go after him. Perfect age and need for our team

Magic should be very interested in Knetch, he provides everything they are missing: 3-point shooting, athleticism in the backcourt, merts their timeline and is cheap.

Makes sense to Brooklyn, Atlanta, and just about any team that is between tanking and not sure if to tank or not, but has a core under 30 (and not a surplus of guards like Portland).

The issue is what do the Lakers get back for him. Detroit could have him and a first for Duren, but I don’t think they are parting with him.

Brooklyn for Claxton, plus salary (Gabe and Maxi probably). That makes sense, but I’m afraid Brooklyn will try to squeeze more for Claxton.

Hawks for Capela could make sense but Lakers would want seconds in return. A reunion with Nance could be interesting but he is a free agent.

Magic doesn’t have anyone they are willing to trade and Lakers want, so has to be assets for a future Lakers trade.

Imo Knetch is worth a good first, just outside the top 10. He has proven to be a contributor in a competitive Lakers squad, is only 23 and under team control for years to come. Most 10-20 picks don’t reach that much in their first year.

Stanq wrote:Magic should be very interested in Knetch, he provides everything they are missing: 3-point shooting, athleticism in the backcourt, merts their timeline and is cheap.

Makes sense to Brooklyn, Atlanta, and just about any team that is between tanking and not sure if to tank or not, but has a core under 30 (and not a surplus of guards like Portland).

The issue is what do the Lakers get back for him. Detroit could have him and a first for Duren, but I don’t think they are parting with him.

Brooklyn for Claxton, plus salary (Gabe and Maxi probably). That makes sense, but I’m afraid Brooklyn will try to squeeze more for Claxton.

Hawks for Capela could make sense but Lakers would want seconds in return. A reunion with Nance could be interesting but he is a free agent.

Magic doesn’t have anyone they are willing to trade and Lakers want, so has to be assets for a future Lakers trade.

Imo Knetch is worth a good first, just outside the top 10. He has proven to be a contributor in a competitive Lakers squad, is only 23 and under team control for years to come. Most 10-20 picks don’t reach that much in their first year.

WCJ?

MNRunLeft wrote:Maybe I'm off base here but I don't think Knecht has meaningfully improved his value since being drafted, he's pretty much been as expected despite some initial hype early in the season. He was the 17th overall pick as an older prospect in a weak draft class so best case if you are trying to trade him for a 1st its probably for a pick in the late 20s in this draft if a team has a specific need to fill, or a protected 1st (turns into seconds) deal for a future pick and even then a team might not want to handcuff themselves.

Not sure if this is true.

Guys were picked in front of him that had the higher potential that teams may already suspect they don't after a year. If those teams knew they got a dud they would have preferred Knecht. Many guys in front of him were a gamble that didn't pay up and he should raise up in hindsight right?

gswhoops wrote:Unless the Mark Williams non-trade poisoned the well, I'm not sure LA should trade him at this point? Seems like a good movement shooter who can also do a little secondary creation would be a nice fit next to Luka on a post-LeBron Lakers team.

He's in that grey area as a prospect where he's shown enough to be more than just a throw-in but not enough to anchor a trade for a contributor by himself, so you're likely stuck overpaying for a guy like Claxton or Zubac, which I'm not sure is the right approach.

Yeah you're right I think.


The issue with Knecht and why he was traded was the Lakers thought they needed the vertical threat more and the player that provided a boost defensively.

Knecht hadn't been working in the defensive system with Davis. But this system without Davis is working and he fits in to that because this current system just requires you to be athletic and tall for your position.

So yeah I think Lakers end up keeping him.

babyjax13 wrote:

Stanq wrote:Magic should be very interested in Knetch, he provides everything they are missing: 3-point shooting, athleticism in the backcourt, merts their timeline and is cheap.

Makes sense to Brooklyn, Atlanta, and just about any team that is between tanking and not sure if to tank or not, but has a core under 30 (and not a surplus of guards like Portland).

The issue is what do the Lakers get back for him. Detroit could have him and a first for Duren, but I don’t think they are parting with him.

Brooklyn for Claxton, plus salary (Gabe and Maxi probably). That makes sense, but I’m afraid Brooklyn will try to squeeze more for Claxton.

Hawks for Capela could make sense but Lakers would want seconds in return. A reunion with Nance could be interesting but he is a free agent.

Magic doesn’t have anyone they are willing to trade and Lakers want, so has to be assets for a future Lakers trade.

Imo Knetch is worth a good first, just outside the top 10. He has proven to be a contributor in a competitive Lakers squad, is only 23 and under team control for years to come. Most 10-20 picks don’t reach that much in their first year.

WCJ?

Lakers would be interested, but not sure if value is equal here.

Stanq wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:

Stanq wrote:Magic should be very interested in Knetch, he provides everything they are missing: 3-point shooting, athleticism in the backcourt, merts their timeline and is cheap.

Makes sense to Brooklyn, Atlanta, and just about any team that is between tanking and not sure if to tank or not, but has a core under 30 (and not a surplus of guards like Portland).

The issue is what do the Lakers get back for him. Detroit could have him and a first for Duren, but I don’t think they are parting with him.

Brooklyn for Claxton, plus salary (Gabe and Maxi probably). That makes sense, but I’m afraid Brooklyn will try to squeeze more for Claxton.

Hawks for Capela could make sense but Lakers would want seconds in return. A reunion with Nance could be interesting but he is a free agent.

Magic doesn’t have anyone they are willing to trade and Lakers want, so has to be assets for a future Lakers trade.

Imo Knetch is worth a good first, just outside the top 10. He has proven to be a contributor in a competitive Lakers squad, is only 23 and under team control for years to come. Most 10-20 picks don’t reach that much in their first year.

WCJ?

Lakers would be interested, but not sure if value is equal here.

Maybe it's just me..but I'm not sold on WCJ at all..he misses a ton of games every year and is kind of a jack of all trades, master of none..he can shoot 3's but does it (way) below average, mediocre rebounder..it's not clear if he's a 4 or a 5, not particularly good at catching lobs..Lakers already have centers lacking size that can switch on defense (Vandervilt and he shoots a similar average on 3's)even Hayes is pretty mobile...which is where I see the appeal of WCJ.. I think the Lakers need a different archetype at center a giant in the Zubac/Kessler/Adams mold or if they go the mobile center route Claxton is the name, at least he's a specialist who is elite at something

zimpy27 wrote:

MNRunLeft wrote:Maybe I'm off base here but I don't think Knecht has meaningfully improved his value since being drafted, he's pretty much been as expected despite some initial hype early in the season. He was the 17th overall pick as an older prospect in a weak draft class so best case if you are trying to trade him for a 1st its probably for a pick in the late 20s in this draft if a team has a specific need to fill, or a protected 1st (turns into seconds) deal for a future pick and even then a team might not want to handcuff themselves.

Not sure if this is true.

Guys were picked in front of him that had the higher potential that teams may already suspect they don't after a year. If those teams knew they got a dud they would have preferred Knecht. Many guys in front of him were a gamble that didn't pay up and he should raise up in hindsight right?

Other guys may have lowered their stock, making him higher a re-draft, but I think if we were to throw Knecht back into a new draft in 2025 with what we know about him now, teams will again choose the high potential gambles over him up to around the 20th pick (depending on needs of course).

Myth wrote:

zimpy27 wrote:

MNRunLeft wrote:Maybe I'm off base here but I don't think Knecht has meaningfully improved his value since being drafted, he's pretty much been as expected despite some initial hype early in the season. He was the 17th overall pick as an older prospect in a weak draft class so best case if you are trying to trade him for a 1st its probably for a pick in the late 20s in this draft if a team has a specific need to fill, or a protected 1st (turns into seconds) deal for a future pick and even then a team might not want to handcuff themselves.

Not sure if this is true.

Guys were picked in front of him that had the higher potential that teams may already suspect they don't after a year. If those teams knew they got a dud they would have preferred Knecht. Many guys in front of him were a gamble that didn't pay up and he should raise up in hindsight right?

Other guys may have lowered their stock, making him higher a re-draft, but I think if we were to throw Knecht back into a new draft in 2025 with what we know about him now, teams will again choose the high potential gambles over him up to around the 20th pick (depending on needs of course).

That depends a lot on the team that is drafting the player and how loaded is the draft. I'd say that knowing what we know now, if we re-do the 2024 draft, he would jump at least 4 spots.That barely out of the top ten, which is one hell of a pick, even if that wasn't sucha good draft class.

Stanq wrote:

Myth wrote:

zimpy27 wrote:
Not sure if this is true.

Guys were picked in front of him that had the higher potential that teams may already suspect they don't after a year. If those teams knew they got a dud they would have preferred Knecht. Many guys in front of him were a gamble that didn't pay up and he should raise up in hindsight right?

Other guys may have lowered their stock, making him higher a re-draft, but I think if we were to throw Knecht back into a new draft in 2025 with what we know about him now, teams will again choose the high potential gambles over him up to around the 20th pick (depending on needs of course).

That depends a lot on the team that is drafting the player and how loaded is the draft. I'd say that knowing what we know now, if we re-do the 2024 draft, he would jump at least 4 spots.That barely out of the top ten, which is one hell of a pick, even if that wasn't sucha good draft class.

Just looking at the 2024 draft out of my own curiousity...

1. Hawks draft Zaccharie Risacher (JL Bourg-en-Bresse)

2. Wizards draft Alex Sarr (Perth)

3. Rockets draft Reed Sheppard (Kentucky)

4. Spurs draft Stephon Castle (Connecticut)

5. Pistons draft Ron Holland II (G League Ignite)

6. Hornets draft Tidjane Salaun (Cholet Basket)

7. Trail Blazers draft Donovan Clingan (Connecticut)

8. Spurs draft Rob Dillingham (Kentucky) — Traded to Timberwolves

9. Grizzlies draft Zach Edey (Purdue)

10. Jazz draft Cody Williams (Colorado)

11. Bulls draft Matas Buzelis (G League Ignite)

12. Thunder draft Nikola Topic (KK Crvena Zvezda)

13. Kings draft Devin Carter (Providence)

14. Trail Blazers draft Bub Carrington (Pittsburgh) — Traded to Wizards

15. Heat draft Kel’el Ware (Indiana)

16. 76ers draft Jared McCain (Duke)

17. Lakers draft Dalton Knecht (Tennessee)

Ware, McCain, and Edey probably rise (Ware and McCain probably go top-3 in a re-do), Sheppard and Salaun probably fall. A lot of the guys drafted ahead of Knecht were projects so idk if we've seen enough from Knecht for him to pass them?

gswhoops wrote:

Stanq wrote:

Myth wrote:Other guys may have lowered their stock, making him higher a re-draft, but I think if we were to throw Knecht back into a new draft in 2025 with what we know about him now, teams will again choose the high potential gambles over him up to around the 20th pick (depending on needs of course).

That depends a lot on the team that is drafting the player and how loaded is the draft. I'd say that knowing what we know now, if we re-do the 2024 draft, he would jump at least 4 spots.That barely out of the top ten, which is one hell of a pick, even if that wasn't sucha good draft class.

Just looking at the 2024 draft out of my own curiousity...

1. Hawks draft Zaccharie Risacher (JL Bourg-en-Bresse)

2. Wizards draft Alex Sarr (Perth)

3. Rockets draft Reed Sheppard (Kentucky)

4. Spurs draft Stephon Castle (Connecticut)

5. Pistons draft Ron Holland II (G League Ignite)

6. Hornets draft Tidjane Salaun (Cholet Basket)

7. Trail Blazers draft Donovan Clingan (Connecticut)

8. Spurs draft Rob Dillingham (Kentucky) — Traded to Timberwolves

9. Grizzlies draft Zach Edey (Purdue)

10. Jazz draft Cody Williams (Colorado)

11. Bulls draft Matas Buzelis (G League Ignite)

12. Thunder draft Nikola Topic (KK Crvena Zvezda)

13. Kings draft Devin Carter (Providence)

14. Trail Blazers draft Bub Carrington (Pittsburgh) — Traded to Wizards

15. Heat draft Kel’el Ware (Indiana)

16. 76ers draft Jared McCain (Duke)

17. Lakers draft Dalton Knecht (Tennessee)

Ware, McCain, and Edey probably rise (Ware and McCain probably go top-3 in a re-do), Sheppard and Salaun probably fall. A lot of the guys drafted ahead of Knecht were projects so idk if we've seen enough from Knecht for him to pass them?

Ware, McCain and Edey were taken ahead of him, so the fact they move up doesn't change his position. You could make a case that he goes ahead of most guys from 10 to 14, and a 2-3 before 9.

Stanq wrote:

gswhoops wrote:

Stanq wrote:
That depends a lot on the team that is drafting the player and how loaded is the draft. I'd say that knowing what we know now, if we re-do the 2024 draft, he would jump at least 4 spots.That barely out of the top ten, which is one hell of a pick, even if that wasn't sucha good draft class.

Just looking at the 2024 draft out of my own curiousity...

1. Hawks draft Zaccharie Risacher (JL Bourg-en-Bresse)

2. Wizards draft Alex Sarr (Perth)

3. Rockets draft Reed Sheppard (Kentucky)

4. Spurs draft Stephon Castle (Connecticut)

5. Pistons draft Ron Holland II (G League Ignite)

6. Hornets draft Tidjane Salaun (Cholet Basket)

7. Trail Blazers draft Donovan Clingan (Connecticut)

8. Spurs draft Rob Dillingham (Kentucky) — Traded to Timberwolves

9. Grizzlies draft Zach Edey (Purdue)

10. Jazz draft Cody Williams (Colorado)

11. Bulls draft Matas Buzelis (G League Ignite)

12. Thunder draft Nikola Topic (KK Crvena Zvezda)

13. Kings draft Devin Carter (Providence)

14. Trail Blazers draft Bub Carrington (Pittsburgh) — Traded to Wizards

15. Heat draft Kel’el Ware (Indiana)

16. 76ers draft Jared McCain (Duke)

17. Lakers draft Dalton Knecht (Tennessee)

Ware, McCain, and Edey probably rise (Ware and McCain probably go top-3 in a re-do), Sheppard and Salaun probably fall. A lot of the guys drafted ahead of Knecht were projects so idk if we've seen enough from Knecht for him to pass them?

Ware, McCain and Edey were taken ahead of him, so the fact they move up doesn't change his position. You could make a case that he goes ahead of most guys from 10 to 14, and a 2-3 before 9.

Williams/Buzelis were drafted as projects and Topic was known to be hurt going into the draft. I don't think their lack of production relative to Knecht in their rookie years is going to move the needle much. Knecht was expected to be better as a rookie, and he hasn't been SO MUCH better than expected that you'd have to re-assess what you think Knecht's NBA projection/ceiling is.

gswhoops wrote:

Stanq wrote:

gswhoops wrote:Just looking at the 2024 draft out of my own curiousity...

1. Hawks draft Zaccharie Risacher (JL Bourg-en-Bresse)

2. Wizards draft Alex Sarr (Perth)

3. Rockets draft Reed Sheppard (Kentucky)

4. Spurs draft Stephon Castle (Connecticut)

5. Pistons draft Ron Holland II (G League Ignite)

6. Hornets draft Tidjane Salaun (Cholet Basket)

7. Trail Blazers draft Donovan Clingan (Connecticut)

8. Spurs draft Rob Dillingham (Kentucky) — Traded to Timberwolves

9. Grizzlies draft Zach Edey (Purdue)

10. Jazz draft Cody Williams (Colorado)

11. Bulls draft Matas Buzelis (G League Ignite)

12. Thunder draft Nikola Topic (KK Crvena Zvezda)

13. Kings draft Devin Carter (Providence)

14. Trail Blazers draft Bub Carrington (Pittsburgh) — Traded to Wizards

15. Heat draft Kel’el Ware (Indiana)

16. 76ers draft Jared McCain (Duke)

17. Lakers draft Dalton Knecht (Tennessee)

Ware, McCain, and Edey probably rise (Ware and McCain probably go top-3 in a re-do), Sheppard and Salaun probably fall. A lot of the guys drafted ahead of Knecht were projects so idk if we've seen enough from Knecht for him to pass them?

Ware, McCain and Edey were taken ahead of him, so the fact they move up doesn't change his position. You could make a case that he goes ahead of most guys from 10 to 14, and a 2-3 before 9.

Williams/Buzelis were drafted as projects and Topic was known to be hurt going into the draft. I don't think their lack of production relative to Knecht in their rookie years is going to move the needle much. Knecht was expected to be better as a rookie, and he hasn't been SO MUCH better than expected that you'd have to re-assess what you think Knecht's NBA projection/ceiling is.

So Sheppard, Salaun, Carrington and Dillingham, maybe Carter? That's 12-13.

Stanq wrote:

gswhoops wrote:

Stanq wrote:
Ware, McCain and Edey were taken ahead of him, so the fact they move up doesn't change his position. You could make a case that he goes ahead of most guys from 10 to 14, and a 2-3 before 9.

Williams/Buzelis were drafted as projects and Topic was known to be hurt going into the draft. I don't think their lack of production relative to Knecht in their rookie years is going to move the needle much. Knecht was expected to be better as a rookie, and he hasn't been SO MUCH better than expected that you'd have to re-assess what you think Knecht's NBA projection/ceiling is.

So Sheppard, Salaun, Carrington and Dillingham, maybe Carter? That's 12-13.

Well if you are looking at a redraft you have to look at the guys taken after 17 too, right? A few guys that I think have been better already than I thought they would be at the draft -- Jaylen Wells in the 2nd round wouldn't happen again, Filipowski in the early 2nd looks like a rotation stretch big. Post looks serviceable enough that he's probably not going in the 50s again. Missi at 21 looks like a limited skill set but rotation big. I think Da Silva's shot has been a bit more consistent overall (a few points below but not nearly the same swings in %) and shot well enough in college I expect he'll still get better there and he would have a similar profile as Knecht with a bit more size and rebounding.