ORL gets offensive, PHX gets big, POR gets pix

[Skybox]

ORL sends:Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, 27 frp (top 8), #15 & #26 to POR
POR sends: Simons & #9
*POR doesn’t really want the KCP contract, but ORL adds the 27 and KCP can likely be flipped or kept if they want to compete and maybe raise his value…with a decent shooting season, he’ll be valued by a contender by TD…package is just enough to make it worth the chance. POR has Clingan, so their draft is a little flat at that spot anyway (center & shooting guards - which they have). If they prefer a future frp (instead of #15), that’s fine too…ORL could send it elsewhere or draft a shooter like McNeely and give POR a future pick. In this case, ORL is chasing Malauch and most of the teams drafting in this range have young centers. KCP has admittedly tanked his value, but history suggests he’s one of the most reliably elite 3&D guys around. EVERYONE (literally-everyone) on ORL are shooting career lows from 3…which suggests to a buy-low investor that it’s systemic, not personal, to KCP (and WCJ too)

ORL sends Wendell Carter, Jr
PHX sends: Tyus Jones (SnT $12m x 2+TO)
PHX, effectively gets what they need for a failed experiment…Tyus’ paycheck (and role) gets corrected, unless he had a secret handshake for $20m for coming over for only $3m for a starting featured role…something PHX would now regret.

[JRoy]

Hard pass for POR.

The best asset in the deal is POR lotto pick. Swapping that for lesser picks and a bad contract is the exact opposite of what POR should do.

POR needs a shot at top end talent,and the draft is the best place to get that.

[facothomas22]

Remove the 9th and the 26th pick in the draft and this becomes closer. The Blazers have no interest in moving down in a strong class to take on KCP contract. Far as the value from there, it depends where the Magic pick ends up at. Assuming it's the 15th pick, the Magic need to add a bit value more get Simons, while getting off KCP bad contract.

[Skybox]

Well of course it matters where the picks land...my presumption is that POR's pick lands out of the very top and ORL's lands out of the very bottom of the lottery. POR, UTA, NOLA, CHA, MIA, SAS, BRK, WAS, HOU all have really good young Centers in-house and all of them have a chance to land in the late single digits (where Maluach likely lands). PHI might even pass with the blind faith in Embiid...ORL could really use a monster like Maluach - but he's also looking like a very limited player, who could be very good at just the few things that ORL needs next to Paolo & Franz. I only chose POR for this one because Simons has been on their menu for years (should be I should say) and I, honestly don't love this draft overall, outside of the Top 2 and Maluach. It could end up with ORL being held hostage and having to pay to trade up one slot to get Maluach.

I hate the term "the draft flattens out", but this year I could see that after the Top 3 (at this point at least), there's a lot of guys that have different but somewhat equivalent appeal. 9 to 15 is a significant drop, in this scenario, and it might end up being very few slots which would look a lot better for POR...it all comes down to who POR likes - but I don't see guys in that general range that would be all that exciting to POR. Kon would be good, but he'll probably be long gone by then...IF POR preferred ORL's 26 frp (top 5 protected) to ORL's 25, that's good with me too.

It's also about POR, or whoever, banking on ORL's impotent ball movement and playmaking being a factor in KCP, after a decade of excellence, just forgetting how to shoot...and buying low, even if it's just to move him out later. KCP hasn't lost a step defensively or athletically...so it's not an unreasonable bet - it's not like trading for a guy with a blown out Achilles and hoping he can still jump over people. Even if KCP was hitting 3's at 40% - it wasn't a sensible acquisition for ORL, who still lacks a viable table-setter.

Other variations (within that range) could be UTA drafts Maluach and sends him and Sexton, NOLA sends him and CJ, WAS sends him and Poole, etc. IF MIA went after KD-maybe they'd send Herro and Maluach for a strong pick package to move to PHX (and cut their share of the price significantly). Same might be said for HOU, who could send over FVV in pursuit of KD....all of these would have varying draft equity and matching salary needed from ORL...but you get the idea.

[Skybox]

Hard pass for POR.

The best asset in the deal is POR lotto pick. Swapping that for lesser picks and a bad contract is the exact opposite of what POR should do.

POR needs a shot at top end talent,and the draft is the best place to get that.

Assuming the pick is around Maluach range (Tankathon currently mocks him at #10, with POR sitting at #8)...who do you prefer that much at #8 over ORL's pick (currently slotted at #15-but tough schedule ahead)? I see that that's a big jump back, but looking at the humans we're actually drafting...who would be great for POR?

[BlazersBroncos]

KCP has an extra year on Simon’s.

KCP + Cole + Black + DEN FRP for Simon’s + Thybulle + Reath or Kris would be my counter offer.

ORL gets their scoring guard, a defender in Thybulle to replace KCP and shaves a year from both KCP and Cole. They use 15 on a guard to replace Black as a development guy.

PDX takes on salary but gets a prospect and pick.

That would be my counter.

[Myth]

I don’t yet know the players deeper in this draft to have all the necessary info, but in general, Portland needs to swing for a homerun in the draft rather than adding more young depth, and I think the chance is better with a high pick rather than multiple lower picks. I’m fully on board with Simons for lesser picks, but I think dropping back in the draft is the wrong direction for Portland.

[Skybox]

I don’t yet know the players deeper in this draft to have all the necessary info, but in general, Portland needs to swing for a homerun in the draft rather than adding more young depth, and I think the chance is better with a high pick rather than multiple lower picks. I’m fully on board with Simons for lesser picks, but I think dropping back in the draft is the wrong direction for Portland.

My whole point is based on the actual players in the draft and how they might look to POR, not any abstract theories about moving back in the draft. Ask Ainge about trading #1 Fultz and dropping back to grab Tatum.

[Myth]

I don’t yet know the players deeper in this draft to have all the necessary info, but in general, Portland needs to swing for a homerun in the draft rather than adding more young depth, and I think the chance is better with a high pick rather than multiple lower picks. I’m fully on board with Simons for lesser picks, but I think dropping back in the draft is the wrong direction for Portland.

My whole point is based on the actual players in the draft and how they might look to POR, not any abstract theories about moving back in the draft. Ask Ainge about trading #1 Fultz and dropping back to grab Tatum.

So who are the actual players that you think Portland should be targeting in this draft at those spots?

If the Blazers are convinced the guy they really want at 9 will still be available at 15, then sure, get more picks, but Portland should be trying to find a potential franchise guy, and I think it is very unlikely that if Portland has a guy pegged as the best available at 9 that they’ll believe he’ll fall 6 more spots.

[Skybox]

I don’t yet know the players deeper in this draft to have all the necessary info, but in general, Portland needs to swing for a homerun in the draft rather than adding more young depth, and I think the chance is better with a high pick rather than multiple lower picks. I’m fully on board with Simons for lesser picks, but I think dropping back in the draft is the wrong direction for Portland.

My whole point is based on the actual players in the draft and how they might look to POR, not any abstract theories about moving back in the draft. Ask Ainge about trading #1 Fultz and dropping back to grab Tatum.

So who are the actual players that you think Portland should be targeting in this draft at those spots?

If the Blazers are convinced the guy they really want at 9 will still be available at 15, then sure, get more picks, but Portland should be trying to find a potential franchise guy, and I think it is very unlikely that if Portland has a guy pegged as the best available at 9 that they’ll believe he’ll fall 6 more spots.

I don't disagree with the logic, but I don't see anyone that appealing for POR, so they might even look at trading out. Maluach, to me, is the biggest upside guy in that range (maybe the ONLY upside guy in that range) and Clingan is probably the same or much better at the same type of play.

I'd trust Brian Schmitz a lot more than me ...I miss his analysis-this might be the kind of draft where he really earns his money

[JRoy]

Hard pass for POR.

The best asset in the deal is POR lotto pick. Swapping that for lesser picks and a bad contract is the exact opposite of what POR should do.

POR needs a shot at top end talent,and the draft is the best place to get that.

Assuming the pick is around Maluach range (Tankathon currently mocks him at #10, with POR sitting at #8)...who do you prefer that much at #8 over ORL's pick (currently slotted at #15-but tough schedule ahead)? I see that that's a big jump back, but looking at the humans we're actually drafting...who would be great for POR?

Depends who is left on the board.

[cucad8]

Don't like it for Portland. I'd want a 1st to move Simons for KCP, so ok, enter the '27 FRP, I suppose. But I don't think 15 and 26 is enough for 9, personally. Regardless of who is currently mocked at that spot, and the draft being more of this than that. If you look at Portland, anyone they draft will have a young guy they like in front of him(Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni, Clingan), which brings it back to Portland needing a big swing over putting together a few solid cuts. I don't know who that big swing is, or whether a trade is better, but I'm not a fan at this price.

[Skybox]

Hard pass for POR.

The best asset in the deal is POR lotto pick. Swapping that for lesser picks and a bad contract is the exact opposite of what POR should do.

POR needs a shot at top end talent,and the draft is the best place to get that.

Assuming the pick is around Maluach range (Tankathon currently mocks him at #10, with POR sitting at #8)...who do you prefer that much at #8 over ORL's pick (currently slotted at #15-but tough schedule ahead)? I see that that's a big jump back, but looking at the humans we're actually drafting...who would be great for POR?

Depends who is left on the board.

What kind of answer is that? You some kind of politician?

Who do you like after the consensus top 3 even? Like I said to the other guy - this might be a great year to have Brian Schmitz in-house. I think there'll be a lot of disparity of valuations of guys in this draft...of course, it's still very soon to rank guys too.

[Skybox]

Don't like it for Portland. I'd want a 1st to move Simons for KCP, so ok, enter the '27 FRP, I suppose. But I don't think 15 and 26 is enough for 9, personally. Regardless of who is currently mocked at that spot, and the draft being more of this than that. If you look at Portland, anyone they draft will have a young guy they like in front of him(Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni, Clingan), which brings it back to Portland needing a big swing over putting together a few solid cuts. I don't know who that big swing is, or whether a trade is better, but I'm not a fan at this price.

That's fair...I know that's what I wrote but It could even be 9 for 8, or 12 for 9, etc...heck, ORL might even land ahead of POR if they're not stupid enough to win out and make the playoffs for the glory of getting smashed in 4 games. By the end of March Madness, Maluach could end up in the Top 3 or completely out of the lottery too...and my present impression of him is the only reason I'm here. Lots more to be clarified. Best to revisit this later.

[Myth]

Assuming the pick is around Maluach range (Tankathon currently mocks him at #10, with POR sitting at #8)...who do you prefer that much at #8 over ORL's pick (currently slotted at #15-but tough schedule ahead)? I see that that's a big jump back, but looking at the humans we're actually drafting...who would be great for POR?

Depends who is left on the board.

What kind of answer is that? You some kind of politician?

Who do you like after the consensus top 3 even? Like I said to the other guy - this might be a great year to have Brian Schmitz in-house. I think there'll be a lot of disparity of valuations of guys in this draft...of course, it's still very soon to rank guys too.

Are you talking about Mike Schmitz? This is the 2nd time you mentioned Brian Schmitz and after the 1st time I googled him expecting some mock draft guru or something lol.

As for JRoy’s answer, my default is to assume the higher pick has the most upside and therefore not make the trade UNLESS we really don’t like the options at 9 much more than multiple lower quality swings, so yes, it does depend on who is available. All of the discussions draft pick trades discussed have been unnamed players with the exception of Maluach who you implied Portland shouldn’t target. So without specific targeted players being discussed and just the hypothetical value of the numerical picks, I’m not currently on board.

[JRoy]

Depends who is left on the board.

What kind of answer is that? You some kind of politician?

Who do you like after the consensus top 3 even? Like I said to the other guy - this might be a great year to have Brian Schmitz in-house. I think there'll be a lot of disparity of valuations of guys in this draft...of course, it's still very soon to rank guys too.

Are you talking about Mike Schmitz? This is the 2nd time you mentioned Brian Schmitz and after the 1st time I googled him expecting some mock draft guru or something lol.

As for JRoy’s answer, my default is to assume the higher pick has the most upside and therefore not make the trade UNLESS we really don’t like the options at 9 much more than multiple lower quality swings, so yes, it does depend on who is available. All of the discussions draft pick trades discussed have been unnamed players with the exception of Maluach who you implied Portland shouldn’t target. So without specific targeted players being discussed and just the hypothetical value of the numerical picks, I’m not currently on board.

Bingo.

Pretty much how I see it.

[Skybox]

Depends who is left on the board.

What kind of answer is that? You some kind of politician?

Who do you like after the consensus top 3 even? Like I said to the other guy - this might be a great year to have Brian Schmitz in-house. I think there'll be a lot of disparity of valuations of guys in this draft...of course, it's still very soon to rank guys too.

Are you talking about Mike Schmitz? This is the 2nd time you mentioned Brian Schmitz and after the 1st time I googled him expecting some mock draft guru or something lol.

As for JRoy’s answer, my default is to assume the higher pick has the most upside and therefore not make the trade UNLESS we really don’t like the options at 9 much more than multiple lower quality swings, so yes, it does depend on who is available. All of the discussions draft pick trades discussed have been unnamed players with the exception of Maluach who you implied Portland shouldn’t target. So without specific targeted players being discussed and just the hypothetical value of the numerical picks, I’m not currently on board.

God yes...Brian Schmitz was a sportswriter for the Orlando Sentinel for many years. I love Mike Schmitz.

as far as not being on board with speculation, cool- there's the door - participation is optional.

"High Pick Better Than Low Pick" is certainly an impressive conclusion.

[Myth]

as far as not being on board with speculation, cool- there's the door - participation is optional.

This felt very unnecessary. Not liking a proposal means I should leave the thread you started? You may not have liked my position, but I was actively involved in the discussion.

[Skybox]

as far as not being on board with speculation, cool- there's the door - participation is optional.

This felt very unnecessary. Not liking a proposal means I should leave the thread you started? You may not have liked my position, but I was actively involved in the discussion.

My apologies...the gist I got (from your non-proposal) was that there was not much worth discussing or speculating about which players might make sense based on the early mocks.

I only post things that I think could be win-wins with the proper analysis of fit, etc

[Myth]

as far as not being on board with speculation, cool- there's the door - participation is optional.

This felt very unnecessary. Not liking a proposal means I should leave the thread you started? You may not have liked my position, but I was actively involved in the discussion.

My apologies...the gist I got (from your non-proposal) was that there was not much worth discussing or speculating about which players might make sense based on the early mocks.

I’m totally fine with speculation. I was just indicating that with the info currently presented, I prefer the speculative value of what we have over that of what we receive. I’m even open to changing that stance, but that requires a bit more info, which is why I asked if you had specific targets in mind. If this conversion has done anything on my end, it got me going to some mock drafts to start reading up on some players who may be available to us, but I’m very early in that process as most of the season I’ve just hoped to be bad enough to land a higher pick to land one of the players who have gained more attention.