Mavs/Wizards/Hawks

[Astaluego]

MAVS
In: Smart/SRP CAVS 27 and 31(by Hawks)
Out: Gafford/Hardy/Powell

The Mavs bring Smart home, he gives them depth at the guard position and also complements KI well when he returns. They make room on the roster to take advantage of this season's discoveries, especially B. Williams and also K. Jones or K. Edwards.

AD/Lively/K.Jones
PJ/O-Max/K.Edwards
Marshall/Martín/Draft
Klay/Christie/Exum
Smart/B.Williams/*KI


WIZARDS
In:Hardy/Powell/SRP Cavs 29(by Hawks)
Out:Smart

Wizards cut around 10 million while gaining an extra prospect and SRP
Powell would replace Smart's veteran role, being an excellent professional and locker room guy... (or they just cut him)


HAWKS
In: Gafford
Out:3 SRP

They get Capela's replacement at a very affordable price... great fit alongside T. Young

[Mavrelous]

I like it for the Mavs and all other teams.

[jayjaysee]

Yeah, my response is mostly off of Smart’s reputation as I don’t know how big a decline he is in/has had.. But I like this a lot for Dallas.

Atl gets a cheap good fitting piece. And Washington saves some money and gets a 2nd far enough away that it could be decent.

[nate33]

I think we are past the point where Hardy has any positive trade value. After his 3rd season, his ORtg was still sub 100 and he couldn't get minutes in a playoff game on a team that has no guards.

The Wizards have no need for cap relief. It won't get them far enough under the cap to use it (rather than the MLE). From their perspective, this is really just Smart for the 55th or so pick in the 2029 draft. I'd rather keep Smart as a veteran mentor and look to trade him for a better package at the Trade Deadline.

[Texas Chuck]

yeah seems light for Washington. Powell offers them try hard guy but they can find that elsewhere. Hardy offers them nothing. Maybe Smart is just bad money and the salary relief is enough value, but I don't see the point especially as Hardy has future money.

And if Smart is that bad, then Dallas should keep Gafford who is pretty useful.

[Astaluego]

I think we are past the point where Hardy has any positive trade value. After his 3rd season, his ORtg was still sub 100 and he couldn't get minutes in a playoff game on a team that has no guards.

The Wizards have no need for cap relief. It won't get them far enough under the cap to use it (rather than the MLE). From their perspective, this is really just Smart for the 55th or so pick in the 2029 draft. I'd rather keep Smart as a veteran mentor and look to trade him for a better package at the Trade Deadline.

After this, the Wizards could continue doing business. I thought freeing up space would put them in a better position, whether they want to bid for a free agent (Kuminga) or have the flexibility to make a trade where they accept more money in exchange for assets...
I'm sure you're right about Hardy, but he's only 21 and he'll be earning "only" 6 million. I don't think it's a crippling contract at all.
I thought that with Middleton earning 30 million as a mentor, it would be enough.

[nate33]

After this, the Wizards could continue doing business. I thought freeing up space would put them in a better position, whether they want to bid for a free agent (Kuminga) or have the flexibility to make a trade where they accept more money in exchange for assets...
I'm sure you're right about Hardy, but he's only 21 and he'll be earning "only" 6 million. I don't think it's a crippling contract at all.
I thought that with Middleton earning 30 million as a mentor, it would be enough.

By all accounts, Smart has been great in the locker room. He is already talking about working with Sarr in the offseason. Middleton is currently the better player, but I haven't heard that he is a notable voice in the locker room.

And my comment about the salary relief is particular to the Wizards current position. As it stands now, they are shaping up to be about $2M over the salary cap line. So by saving $10M in this deal, it moves them to $8M below the salary cap line. But $8M in raw cap room isn't really useful because they would first have to renounce their MLE to use that raw space. They'd be better off just using the $13.5M MLE.

[Mavrelous]

I think we are past the point where Hardy has any positive trade value. After his 3rd season, his ORtg was still sub 100 and he couldn't get minutes in a playoff game on a team that has no guards.

The Wizards have no need for cap relief. It won't get them far enough under the cap to use it (rather than the MLE). From their perspective, this is really just Smart for the 55th or so pick in the 2029 draft. I'd rather keep Smart as a veteran mentor and look to trade him for a better package at the Trade Deadline.

29 is 4 years from now, there is just no way we can assign number to this pick, Utah Jazz had a 60+ wins team in 21 and are picking 1st in the 2nd round in25.
The deal also contain cap relief, if you don't want it, then sell it for more picks.
The last thing Wizards need is a vet with injury history...

[nate33]

I think we are past the point where Hardy has any positive trade value. After his 3rd season, his ORtg was still sub 100 and he couldn't get minutes in a playoff game on a team that has no guards.

The Wizards have no need for cap relief. It won't get them far enough under the cap to use it (rather than the MLE). From their perspective, this is really just Smart for the 55th or so pick in the 2029 draft. I'd rather keep Smart as a veteran mentor and look to trade him for a better package at the Trade Deadline.

29 is 4 years from now, there is just no way we can assign number to this pick, Utah Jazz had a 60+ wins team in 21 and are picking 1st in the 2nd round in25.
The deal also contain cap relief, if you don't want it, then sell it for more picks.
The last thing Wizards need is a vet with injury history...

Whatever dude. The Cavs pick in 2029 is not very likely to have value and you know it. Obviously, nothing is certain, but reasonable people can make reasonable projections, and it's reasonable to project the Cavs as one of the top 10 best teams in 2029 given their current success and the age of their roster.

The Wizards can already sell cap relief for picks by selling their expiring contract vets, their MLE, and the Jonas Valanciunas trade exception of $9.9M. This deal is simply not attractive from the Wizards' standpoint for the reasons I've cited.

[Mavrelous]

Cavs pick in 2029 is not very likely to have value and you know it.

No I don't know it and neither do you, picks years from now have high variance, and there is no telling what the pick is.
This deal after waiving Holmes, gives the Wizards 20M in cap space + 8+M in room exception TPE, that's better than 14 + 10 TPEs, add to that the fact that cap space can be combined with contracts and TPEs don't, meaning you can send a 10M contract and take 30, which you can't do with TPEs.
The deal does offer the Wizards value, whether in cap flexibility or draft capital, and it's disingenuous to act it doesn't.

[Mavrelous]

And the return is a player that got salary dumped, Smart can be a good player, but a team already gave up on him, it's a risk/reward deal, no one can really determine if it'll be a good deal or not, Washington doesn't need the reward to take on the risk, so it's really a no brainer for them.

[jayjaysee]

Dallas will be able to trade a couple distant 2nds if Washington needs a little extra for the OP.. If Dallas thinks Smart can be a super sixth man for a few years, it’s easily worth losing those distant 2nds when the team will be rebuilding anyways..

I’m still sort of interested in Middleton for some reason, though his salary is a bit too high for any deal that really helps Dallas? And think Poole could help next season. The two teams have history so seems reasonable there will be contact made as the pieces seem to fit and Washington should be open to moving on from their vets (at least one of them)

[Texas Chuck]

There is no way to tell where a pick will fall in 4 years. This shouldn't even be an argument. Of course you can project, but saying 55 as if its locked in is silly. As always injuries, payroll, bad luck are possibilities we can't deny. Take Dallas. This summer, coming off the Finals with Luka being 25 it would be easy to say their future 2nds will be super late, and now nobody has any idea how Dallas will look, but teams holding their picks probably feel pretty good.

That said, the difference between pick 55 and a random 2nd rounder is minimal at best. So while there was no need to make a baseless claim, it doesn't change the calculus for Washington. Either they value the financial savings or they don't. Sounds like Nate doesn't. It of course has tangible value, but like always we have our own ideas on how we'd prefer to receive value.

Back to Dallas--the idea of Marcus Smart sounds better than Gafford. But Gafford has been the more useful player for 2 seasons now. Not sure Dallas should be spending on that, especially since the last thing Dallas needs is yet another injury prone guy and with AD/Lively guys you can't count on to play 70 games, I want to make sure Gafford is turned into something more sure, because he's valuable insurance/depth.

[nate33]

Cavs pick in 2029 is not very likely to have value and you know it.

No I don't know it and neither do you, picks years from now have high variance, and there is no telling what the pick is.
This deal after waiving Holmes, gives the Wizards 20M in cap space + 8+M in room exception TPE, that's better than 14 + 10 TPEs, add to that the fact that cap space can be combined with contracts and TPEs don't, meaning you can send a 10M contract and take 30, which you can't do with TPEs.
The deal does offer the Wizards value, whether in cap flexibility or draft capital, and it's disingenuous to act it doesn't.

You aren't factoring the Wizards first round picks. One will be a top 5 pick at $10-13M. Plus they will add the MEM pick if MEM beats Dallas tonight. That's another $3.5M

[nate33]

That said, the difference between pick 55 and a random 2nd rounder is minimal at best.

I disagree with this. I think there is a big difference between a pick in the top-half of the 2nd round and the bottom-half of the second round. If you go through the last 25 years, there are virtually no starting-caliber players obtained with picks 46 or later. Usually, they're absolute busts. And if they aren't, they are marginal journeymen who aren't worth enough on their second contracts for Bird Rights and RFA rights to matter (making them no better than random free agents).

[Texas Chuck]

That said, the difference between pick 55 and a random 2nd rounder is minimal at best.

I disagree with this. I think there is a big difference between a pick in the top-half of the 2nd round and the bottom-half of the second round. If you go through the last 25 years, there are virtually no starting-caliber players obtained with picks 46 or later. Usually, they're absolute busts. And if they aren't, they are marginal journeymen who aren't worth enough on their second contracts for Bird Rights and RFA rights to matter (making them no better than random free agents).

This is also basically true of early 2nd rounders. (and late 1sts)

Not sure I would have my opinion changed on a deal if I knew I was getting pick 38 in 2029 versus a random pick that year, but hey to each their own I guess. It's worth way less than the room under the cap/tax/apron that you have turned your nose up at so I'm perplexed. But I also know despite how much people posting on this board have to understand about the value of financial flexibility, still so many posters treat it as nothing when it comes to their own team.

[nate33]

That said, the difference between pick 55 and a random 2nd rounder is minimal at best.

I disagree with this. I think there is a big difference between a pick in the top-half of the 2nd round and the bottom-half of the second round. If you go through the last 25 years, there are virtually no starting-caliber players obtained with picks 46 or later. Usually, they're absolute busts. And if they aren't, they are marginal journeymen who aren't worth enough on their second contracts for Bird Rights and RFA rights to matter (making them no better than random free agents).

This is also basically true of early 2nd rounders. (and late 1sts)

Not sure I would have my opinion changed on a deal if I knew I was getting pick 38 in 2029 versus a random pick that year, but hey to each their own I guess. It's worth way less than the room under the cap/tax/apron that you have turned your nose up at so I'm perplexed. But I also know despite how much people posting on this board have to understand about the value of financial flexibility, still so many posters treat it as nothing when it comes to their own team.

I already explained why the financial flexibility benefit is marginal, at best. The additional cap room gained in this trade will still result in total cap space less than the MLE.

I'm open to trading Smart. But the return must be an incentive that is actually useful to the Wizards.

[jayjaysee]

I already explained why the financial flexibility benefit is marginal, at best. The additional cap room gained in this trade will still result in total cap space less than the MLE.

I'm open to trading Smart. But the return must be an incentive that is actually useful to the Wizards.

Washington wouldn’t create cap space here, but would save money. They’d create a Smart sized TPE by using their two smaller TPE’s. Which could be used to bring in a better asset by taking on a bigger contract later.

I do think Washington is owed a bit more in OP, but pretty minimal.

[GatherStepGuru]

Wash isn’t in a bad cap situation and also not in a position to free up money for a big signing. They’re in a “build with high upside guys” phase, which this trade offers none of.

Smart is a good backcourt partner for Poole and vet mentor who brings a needed defensive toughness in the backcourt. He can still get about 10-11ppg along with good defense. We’d rather keep Smart. Even if WAS was gonna deal him, I think they could do better dealing him at the deadline to a team looking for more cap space in summer 2026.

[nate33]

They’d create a Smart sized TPE by using their two smaller TPE’s. Which could be used to bring in a better asset by taking on a bigger contract later.

This is a very good point that I hadn't considered. Effectively, they would turn the $9.9M Valanciunas TPE into a $20.2M TPE.

A $20.2M TPE might be a very useful bargaining chip at the Trade Deadline next February. A 2nd Apron team might pay a pretty good price to offload $20M in salary.