Tim Lehrbach wrote:
And, tbh, I think this is a good point and too often forgotten in a fan environment where how you are trending in the past three weeks outweighs the fundamentals of roster building. Booker remains a solid cornerstone -- a perfect, top 5 guy, no, but only 5 teams have one of those -- worth retooling around. In the various Durant threads, I'm curious whether anybody has tossed an offer out there that fits your criteria. Doesn't seem impossible to meet. Defense and picks and... ?
The fundamental problem here is that teams are generally in one of following stages of building if they are operating rationally.
1.) Ascending young core, bright future - OKC, Det, Ind, Hou, Orl - Teams that should be relevant for 4-5 years maybe even longer.
These teams are young, usually have some extra assets to spend, maybe some draft picks, or young guys that don't quite fit. They likely have future concerns about salary. These teams are going to be targeting long term fits that can ascend with them.
2.) Peaked, looking for something to put them over the edge - Den, LAC, Bos, Mil, NYK, Cle. Teams that are good now, but could drop off at any moment and forced into a rebuild.
These teams usually don't have many assets left, but are looking for a short term boost to squeeze the best odds they can in the short term. They might be willing to trade some future firsts, but I doubt they will move core rotation guys helping them win at the moment, unless they truly believe their window has closed and they need to swing for the fences. (Which never seems to work out).
3.) Descending teams - Teams that tried to be competitive, but lost major pieces either through decline, injury or mismanagement - SAC, PHX, DAL, PHI, MIA, ChI, ATL, NOP.
These teams are all over the place, but likely have no path forward to contention and need major shakeups. These are real wildcards, but its hard to predict what they will do, or what their mindset is, as there is no obvious path forward.
4.) Rebuilding - Teams in asset collection mode, still trying to move to ascending phase - POR, SAS, UTA, WAS, CHA, BK.
These teams are the least likely to trade for a guy like Durant.
5.) Whatever the hell Toronto is doing.
No one knows....
So if the ask is, who wants a 37 year old declining star in exchange for defense and draft picks.....who exactly is going to provide that?
1.) This group probably has defense and draft picks, but they are...also trying to win....and also trying to manage salary. Why would they trade those things for a short term boost? The reality, is they won't, unless the price is dirt cheap. All these teams are going to have eyes on the big prizes, the guys they can pencil in for 4-5 years. They might trade youth and some lower value picks...like this trade, but I doubt much else.
2.) This is the group that is interested in a guy like Durant. They probably aren't getting any better through development, they might be getting worse due to tax crunches, age, or injury. This is the group who might be desperate enough to throw something out there. But, they don't have many picks, and probably don't want to trade key defensive guys, so what's left? Mostly disappointments or bad fits....Mikal Bridges? Dame Lillard? Jamal Murray? Aaron Gordon? Norm Powell? Porzingas? Jrue?
3.) These teams might want Durant, but absolutely shouldn't, for the exact reason why Phoenix doesn't want him. Maybe they are convinced to rebuild and you can nab a good long term piece in a three way deal, with some team sending picks to the selling team. But why wouldn't the buyer take the Zion, or the AD, or Sabonis for themselves instead of Durant? They probably wouldn't.
4.) None of these teams should want him, but maybe some can facilitate a 3 way. Does Phx want Collins and Sexton, maybe Claxton and Johnson? But again, which team is sending the picks needed to Ainge and Marks to get those guys? Does group 2 have the picks needed to shake those guys loose? Might they just want those role players for themselves?
All of these are going to be clunky trades, for the simple reason that a team is trying to trade Durant....to get better....to a team...probably also trying to get better. I am trying to think of an example where this has happened...ever?