RealGM

DAL trades: PJ Washington, Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin, Jaden Hardy, Dwight Powell, Derrick Lively, 2025 DAL 1st (11), 2029 LAL 1st
PHI trades: Joel Embiid

The logic here is pretty simple - there is no way Embiid will have 4 reasonably healthy seasons over the next 4 years of his massive contract and Philadelphia has really put themselves in a financial bind with he and George on the roster. George has no value, but Embiid still might. Here, they get a lottery pick, a really nice young center, some decent rotation players, and a future first to start reshaping the roster around Maxey and whoever they draft.

For Dallas, they just nuked their future by trading Luka and fans are (understandably) livid. They spin the fruits of their failure this season into a player who - if they can get one healthy run with AD and Kyrie - gives them a real chance at a championship. I don't think there would be a better trio than a healthy Kyrie, AD, and Embiid. There is obviously huge downside here: Embiid might have suffered career ending injuries, Kyrie is often hurt, AD is often hurt, you may never see them field a full team, they wouldn't have much depth, etc. But given what we've seen out of Harrison ... this seems like something he would strongly consider. If it fails, you flip AD and Kyrie for value and rebuild while waiting for Embiid to expire.

Embiid/Gafford
AD
Marshall
Christie
Kyrie/Williams

dont think philly does this if they dont own their pick next year

dont think dallas should do this period (way too risky and expensive)

Godaddycurse wrote:dont think philly does this if they dont own their pick next year

dont think dallas should do this period (way too risky and expensive)

TBH I think Philadelphia should just take the L on that pick and move forward. But it does make the decision easier if they have it. For Dallas, they shouldn't do anything they've done, but this at least seems potentially fun ... for a short time. But I agree, it is too risky to be a good idea.

I feel like the take the Embiid gamble doesn't cost all this. And if it does cost all this, I really hope Dallas isn't the team to pay it.

Neither the Mavs nor any other team offers this type of value until Embiid takes the floor for a few weeks without his knee swelling.

Embiid isn't worth 4 drafts of a team (2023, 2025, 2027 and 2029 drafts belonging to Dallas).

I mean, this type of trade would be the icing on the cake for the Mavericks' FO/ownership. Davis and Embiid wouldn't even play 82 games combined in a season.

Texas Chuck wrote:I feel like the take the Embiid gamble doesn't cost all this. And if it does cost all this, I really hope Dallas isn't the team to pay it.

Originally I had Gafford instead of Lively. Do you think that evens it out?

babyjax13 wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote:I feel like the take the Embiid gamble doesn't cost all this. And if it does cost all this, I really hope Dallas isn't the team to pay it.

Originally I had Gafford instead of Lively. Do you think that evens it out?

I think if you kept the same players in the OP but took out the picks, that's probably about right. It's two solid starters, 2 solid reserves, and the upside Lively represents.

That's not close for an MVP level player of course, but when said MVP level player is so unlikely to play even half a season and those health concerns are likely to only get worse. I think asking Dallas to punt more draft assets to take that gamble just isn't something they could do. Especially since would anyone be surprised if Dallas didn't get 100 games combined out of the 3 stars next year?

Off topic.. can Dallas trade AD and get Joel and “….” back? Plan on tanking a year and hope Joel/Kyrie with a year off recover well enough? Trade Lively for the best pick..

But for the OP? I think that’s a lot more than Joel returns if Philly trades him after this season/surgery. And I don’t mind the risk for Dallas. He’s a year younger than AD/Kyrie. And you just hope that you get lucky with health for one run in the next 3 years. Don’t know if Dallas should get to keep one first or both firsts? But something

jayjaysee wrote:Off topic.. can Dallas trade AD and get Joel and “….” back? Plan on tanking a year and hope Joel/Kyrie with a year off recover well enough? Trade Lively for the best pick..

But for the OP? I think that’s a lot more than Joel returns if Philly trades him after this season/surgery. And I don’t mind the risk for Dallas. He’s a year younger than AD/Kyrie. And you just hope that you get lucky with health for one run in the next 3 years. Don’t know if Dallas should get to keep one first or both firsts? But something

I'm not sure the right combination of assets, either. It'd be interesting to see what some Philly fans think. I had this originally as both firsts but keeping Lively and sending Gafford instead.

Texas Chuck wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote:I feel like the take the Embiid gamble doesn't cost all this. And if it does cost all this, I really hope Dallas isn't the team to pay it.

Originally I had Gafford instead of Lively. Do you think that evens it out?

I think if you kept the same players in the OP but took out the picks, that's probably about right. It's two solid starters, 2 solid reserves, and the upside Lively represents.

That's not close for an MVP level player of course, but when said MVP level player is so unlikely to play even half a season and those health concerns are likely to only get worse. I think asking Dallas to punt more draft assets to take that gamble just isn't something they could do. Especially since would anyone be surprised if Dallas didn't get 100 games combined out of the 3 stars next year?

I wonder if Philly would prefer Lively or #11? It is, IMO, probably the hardest situation in the league to assign a price to. That probably means a trade can't realistically happen, but it would at least be exciting if it did, and I don't think it significantly harms Dallas moving forward. With Embiid they'd have championship upside, without him they don't, and they don't now. I'm not sure if another player realistically available with their assets would get them there? e.g., I proposed Lauri, I think he makes them a lot better than they are, but their shot at a championship would be something like: make it to the conference finals (realistic) and Chet gets injured. Beat OKC sans Chet (still really hard) and face Boston & Brown is out with an injury. It would take a lot of things falling into place. This kind of does, too, but I think having AD/Kyrie/Embiid healthy for the playoffs is a smaller ask than injuries on a bunch of other teams? Maybe that's wrong?

Hadn’t thought of Dallas as a landing spot for Embiid.

I don’t think the Sixers are really ready to trade him yet, but if Dallas offered those players, I would take it; even without the picks. Is there easier way for Dallas to match money here? I would think it would be a lot to ask for them to build out the roster at that point, if it was 6 for 1.

Klay, Gafford, Caleb, and PJ match money. That seems a workable base. Will revisit this after the lottery.

I think Dallas should blow it up, but if they go the opposite direction (which seems likely) then I like this framework. Agree that it’s probably too much for the risk Embiid represents but Nico has been on record not caring much about the state of the franchise after he’s gone. Would position them kind of like the Clippers in recent years where it’s really hard to see them playing much at full strength, but at least hypothetically if everyone was healthy there is championship talent there. For a team like Dallas that wants to prove they can still make the finals after trading Luka it’s not the worst gamble to make

Assets are going the wrong way. Philly would be lucky to rid themselves of Embiid's contract even for salary filler. Don't think that option would be available, though. Can't see any takers.

wemby wrote:Assets are going the wrong way. Philly would be lucky to rid themselves of Embiid's contract even for salary filler. Don't think that option would be available, though. Can't see any takers.

No. You want to make that argument on PG, have at it. Not Embiid.

Embiid has massive upside if magically healthy. That itself has value even if he's never healthy. Just like Zion. And, to reiterate from above, the Sixers think they're going to win next year so they're not even ready to trade him yet.

Nico still hasn't been fired...this ought to seal it.

PHI should probably talk to PHX. Their owner would love to throw everything at the promise of Embiid walking again.

Bad odds, high payout...that seems to be right up PHX ownership's alley

the_process wrote:

wemby wrote:Assets are going the wrong way. Philly would be lucky to rid themselves of Embiid's contract even for salary filler. Don't think that option would be available, though. Can't see any takers.

No. You want to make that argument on PG, have at it. Not Embiid.

Embiid has massive upside if magically healthy. That itself has value even if he's never healthy. Just like Zion. And, to reiterate from above, the Sixers think they're going to win next year so they're not even ready to trade him yet.

And I would be a millionaire if magically I had a lot of money.

i think it takes a couple less pieces but I like the premise.

Martin can't go back to the 76ers this summer since they just traded him. But something like Gafford, Martin (to 3rd team), Marshall, Powell, Hardy, Christie, and multiple picks does work financially.

Mavs go "all in" with Embiid/AD/PJ/Klay/Kyrie + Lively/OMax as their top 7. Old and injury prone as all hell, but more talented. I don't know what other choice they have. Not like they can rebuild from the ground up through the draft (although this fan of a team that owns their 2027 1st would enjoy nothing more) and the current team is very obviously not good enough.

wemby wrote:Assets are going the wrong way. Philly would be lucky to rid themselves of Embiid's contract even for salary filler. Don't think that option would be available, though. Can't see any takers.

Yeah there are some real obstacles to even making an Embiid trade ten days after the second surgery on his left knee. Is Dallas waiving the physical?

Why would Dallas waive the physical on a player with a serious injury history who's going to be owed more than $220M over the next 4 seasons?

This is the same Mavs team that traded Luka rather than commit to paying him a supermax, ostensibly at least, due to concerns about conditioning and durability. The implicit rationale seems to be that Dallas does something even dumber than the Luka trade.

It seems widely implausible to me that any team trades for Embiid until he takes the court and looks right.