RealGM

Houston is fortunate to have a top ten pick this year.

How should they use it? Obviously there are still unknowns with the lottery, but here are my early thoughts.

1.) Jump to 1, obviously take Flagg, becomes long term 3 and possible franchise player
2.) Jump to 2, obviously take Harper, possible becomes long term solution at point and maybe franchise player / engine? (qualifier, I haven't scouted him closely yet)
3.) Jump to 3, very unclear. I don't like Bailey for Houston at all. I think the pick is Edgecombe, as just another of one of IME type players. May trade out all together or up to Harper?
3.) Jump to 3, very unclear. I don't like Bailey for Houston at all. I think the pick is Edgecombe, as just another of one of IME type players. May trade out all together or up to Harper?

Stay at 9, guys I am interested in, but have concerns over playing time with loaded roster
Maluach
-I have always wanted a traditional defensive big, but his lack of rebounding scares me, although he has a path to playing time, as no one has his skill set on the roster.
Tre Johnson
Kon Kneuppel
- Interesting players, but same issue as Reed Sheppard, we don't have rotation space and they deserve it.
Boyle
- Interesting, but again how is getting minutes, as we are loaded with guys at this position. Might be the only guy left I like if no trade scenarios materialize.

High-ish rated guys, who I just don't have interest in
Bailey
Fears
Queen
Newell
Kasparis
Boyles
McNeely

Trade down?

The only other guy I like in this draft is Rasheer Flemming, who probably goes about 20. Is there a trade down scenario for a future first? Even a crummy first in 26 or 28 helps our Stepien situation.

Would Orlando trade up in exchange for 28 first top 14 protected? Maybe Utah for 26 or 28 with some protections.

Trade out?
Probably not for players, but a couple future protected firsts to kick the asset pile down the road?

Package for win now player?
Will likely be most popular answer, but I really only like a couple guys as trade targets, and none of the old stars.

i think they should ship out whichever of Eason/Smith that doesn't sign a team friendly extension in a consolidation trade to make room for a new rookie scale bench player with that pick

Godaddycurse wrote:i think they should ship out whichever of Eason/Smith that doesn't sign a team friendly extension in a consolidation trade to make room for a new rookie scale bench player with that pick

Detroit definitely needs a stretch 4 of the future.

What would it take for Detroit to get the odd man out between Smith Jr & Eason?

Godaddycurse wrote:i think they should ship out whichever of Eason/Smith that doesn't sign a team friendly extension in a consolidation trade to make room for a new rookie scale bench player with that pick

They won't know that at the draft in most likihood

Jabari's agent is Wallace Prather Jr. (his dad is Jabari Sr. Agent) who's not like a big big time agent but has had some guys over the years, doesn't seem like the type of situation (and he isn't quiet that type of player) to really ask for the moon.

Tari's agent is Jeff Schwartz who's obviously a much bigger name agent. Though usually not seen as the totally unreasonable type, aside from obvious no brainer max clients like Jokic and Westbrook (back in the days) I guess the most lopsided deal he got was.... Jamal Murray's extension? though that's probably more due to Denver's MO . Also Tari being a mid first pick usually means they're unlikely to get huge extensions unless they're making all star teams or something.

Yes, being able to get these two on reasonable extensions will go a long way to keeping these guys together, especially since Amen looks increasingly like a max / near max guy.

As for the pick, I dunno, it depends obviously on what is out there, one thought might be to trade current pick for future picks but that doesn't happen nearly as often as you'd think in the NBA, most of the smarter GMs don't like to have uncertain future pick obligations unless they really have to.

If the Rockets really need to choose between these two I'd guess they'd lean Tari right now for a variety of reasons. (just make more **** happens, less obvious weakness, big wings are by default the most valuable type of players etc.), though Jabari is more reliable both health wise and consistency wise, and also gives them a different look option, there are also flashes of his game being able to get to a higher gear etc. (it should be noted that Tari is two years older than Jabari, and also Jabari is very young for his class, he's actually just 3 months older than Amen Thompson.)


The guy they're probably currently lowest on is Cam Whitmore, though that can certainly change if he just improve on some things. (also should note he's actually super duper young despite looking like a totally grown men, he's younger than Reed Sheppard.)

It should be noted that there's no real cap rule that say they CAN'T keep everyone, it's just a matter of tax and losing flexibility, though Houston generally drafted in a way where these guys mostly fill different positions. Stone managed to not even give Sengun a max probably should tell you a good bit on his negotiations and cap awareness.

1. Take the pick if it lands at 1 (Cooper) or 2 (Harper).

2. Trade the pick otherwise.
Most likely for multiple late picks (have to get back at least one 2025 and/or 2026 because of Stepien Rule restrictions).
More ammo for future trades.

If top two, Flagg, Harper.
If 9, 3 or 4, make offer for Harper
3 or 4, Cam, Sheppard for 2 type of offer. Add picks if 9 like those two great picks in 2027.
If no deal up, punt. No need for another rookie unless he is a stud.

I still like 15, 24, 2026* HOU 1st top 4 prot for 9

*edit

I think if there is someone there the team likes at 9, you still make the pick and then see about dealing off some rookie contract guys the team doesn't see as core for futures and resetting a rookie clock which is going to become important. I get the natural attachment to the guys we already have but I think Houston has several guys who aren't going to be here in a year or two anyway so I'd rather get value out of them rather than running it out in low minute roles that could be replaced by cheap veterans.

I would probably look at who they like at #9, what's his upside and when does he start to make a difference. The reason for making the pick is those questions have very good answers then you trade somebody from the list of Green, Sheppard, Smith, Thompson, Eason, Sengun, Whitmore to push the timetable for offering many people max 2nd contracts farther down the road. In moving someone from that list you get back an expiring veteran and a future protected 1st or 2nds to send to the G League to have future cap room to extend some others on the list.

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:I still like 15, 24, 2024 HOU 1st top 4 prot for 9

2024?

LarsV8 wrote:

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:I still like 15, 24, 2024 HOU 1st top 4 prot for 9

2024?

2026*

Get a lightly protected first from some other team .
Houston is deep and still have youngster they can give minutes to for now.

Unless someone blow them away in workouts.

#3 + Eason/Sheppard for Desmond Bane?

BarbaGrizz wrote:#3 + Eason/Sheppard for Desmond Bane?

Feels like a pretty big overpay for Bane.

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:I still like 15, 24, 2026* HOU 1st top 4 prot for 9

*edit

I think that is a good deal, I would probably do that, and take Flemming at 15.

Who does OKC like at 9?

BarbaGrizz wrote:#3 + Eason/Sheppard for Desmond Bane?

I like Bane, but I like Eason more, and we have a SG. Plus, the Rockets org loves Sheppard.

If I am at #3, I am taking Edgecombe (or possibly Maluach) unless its a really good deal.

From Houston's perspective, it likely has to be Green + #3 for Bane for it too work for Houston's long term cap mgmt, otherwise I think we would just take Edgecombe.

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:I still like 15, 24, 2026* HOU 1st top 4 prot for 9

*edit

15+24 does seem a little too light for 9, but the West is too competitive to give up a lightly protected 2026 1st on top.

Godaddycurse wrote:i think they should ship out whichever of Eason/Smith that doesn't sign a team friendly extension in a consolidation trade to make room for a new rookie scale bench player with that pick

Smith/9 for Spurs Unprotected 27 / Minny Unprotected 31

Moves assets forward for Houston. Helps Sac right now.

SNPA wrote:

Godaddycurse wrote:i think they should ship out whichever of Eason/Smith that doesn't sign a team friendly extension in a consolidation trade to make room for a new rookie scale bench player with that pick

Smith/9 for Spurs Unprotected 27 / Minny Unprotected 31

Moves assets forward for Houston. Helps Sac right now.

Seems amazing for Sacramento. Seems just like a giant gamble for Houston. And nobody is likely shorting Wemby like this.

SNPA wrote:Smith/9 for Spurs Unprotected 27 / Minny Unprotected 31

Moves assets forward for Houston. Helps Sac right now.

I would not do that.

Spurs will be really good in 27, and Minny will still have Ant at 29, so no reason to believe they wont still be competing.

That seems like #9 for two lates firsts, oh and we also throw in a really good young player in Jabari.

I think Houston should use it to trade for talent. Whether that’s KD or some other piece.. Their kids are really good and they should take advantage of the tax space.

But if that’s not the goal..

I think OKC’s offer is good and gets OKC up to take Newell if Presti falls in love. Presti is willing to pay heavy when he needed.

But just to try one? Probably off.

Atlanta trades up to get Queen or Maluach. CLT cashes in before we know how terrible that first will be. Houston gets an extra first and stays in the lottery.

Atl: 13 and 22
Atl: 9

CLT: 34th, 2026 first (worst of Memphis, Orlando, Washington or Phx)
CLT: 22nd

Houston: 9
Houston: 13, 34, and a bad 2026 first