RealGM

ATL: 22 and Niang for Hauser
BOS: Hauser, 28, 32 for 18 and 45
WAS: 18 and 45 for 22, 28, 32 and take in Niang’s $8.5M expiring

BOS saves tax money galore, and move up 10 spots. Get a later 2nd round swing for a 2 way.

ATL still has their lotto pick still to get their next big upside guy. Then add Hauser as a win now guy instead of a gamble at 22. And unload Niang salary. Possible snag would be SAC jumping to top 4 and keeping their pick instead of it going to ATL.

WAS also still has their lotto pick and gets their stud. Then it turns 1 late mid pick chance into 3 by sliding down 4 spots and taking on Niang salary.

---
45 you could quibble on either WAS keeping or ATL getting. I think it's fair going to BOS, but realize that could be bias. Hauser is a good player on a great contact. While BOS does need to save the money, I think he still has good positive value as many teams could want him and also be able to take him back via exception / space. I view Niang is as slightly negative to basically neutral.

Seems very suspect for Atlanta. I think they need to keep acquiring young assets.

My fix:

ATL sends 22/Niang for 28/Hauser
BOS sends 28/32/Hauser for 22
WSH sends nothing for 32/Niang

Atlanta moves down 6 spots and replaces Niang with a younger Niang
Boston saves money and consolidates
Washington eats Niang for an early 2nd

ReggiesKnicks wrote:Seems very suspect for Atlanta. I think they need to keep acquiring young assets.

My fix:

ATL sends 22/Niang for 28/Hauser
BOS sends 28/32/Hauser for 22
WSH sends nothing for 32/Niang

Atlanta moves down 6 spots and replaces Niang with a younger Niang
Boston saves money and consolidates
Washington eats Niang for an early 2nd

This seems more correct to me value wise

The Wizards will not be trading down from #18 in this deal. If you want to trade #28 and #32 and Niang's salary for #45, that could work.

Yep like fixed version more.

Sent from my SM-A156U using RealGM mobile app

Appreciate the feedback. It feels like it shifted a tiny bit too much in ATL favor, imo.
Adding the uber-valuable CLE 2027 2nd could make me feel better about that.

Firstly, I'm way higher on Sam Hauser on his present contract than is this board.
To me, and maybe I'm just insanely biased as a C's fan, but I really don't think so -- lol
Anyway, I'd think Atlanta's pick from SAC if it comes in at 13, I'd think Sam Hauser + 28 for 13
with Sam going into ATL's mid level exception, no Niang coming back

that's fair value in my opinion. Hauser is really good

ReggiesKnicks wrote:Seems very suspect for Atlanta. I think they need to keep acquiring young assets.

My fix:

ATL sends 22/Niang for 28/Hauser
BOS sends 28/32/Hauser for 22
WSH sends nothing for 32/Niang

Atlanta moves down 6 spots and replaces Niang with a younger Niang
Boston saves money and consolidates
Washington eats Niang for an early 2nd

I had the same initial reaction that it wasn’t great for ATL. I think this works OK.
Value is a bit light for Boston but the repeater tax situation makes it palatable I think.

redslastlaugh wrote:Firstly, I'm way higher on Sam Hauser on his present contract than is this board.
To me, and maybe I'm just insanely biased as a C's fan, but I really don't think so -- lol
Anyway, I'd think Atlanta's pick from SAC if it comes in at 13, I'd think Sam Hauser + 28 for 13
with Sam going into ATL's mid level exception, no Niang coming back

that's fair value in my opinion. Hauser is really good

I like Hauser too, but I think that is very optimistic on his value. Can you think of a situation where a similar player to Hauser brought in that kind of value?

brackdan70 wrote:I like Hauser too, but I think that is very optimistic on his value. Can you think of a situation where a similar player to Hauser brought in that kind of value?

edit: i think this whole post undermined my case, lol ... i'm trying to do 15 things at the moment, i'll come back to it later, sorry


Dallas got #25 for taking 2 yrs of bad salary for Richaun Holmes at roughly the same number as Sam.
Sam is a positive contract and Atlanta is only moving back 15 spots.

What did Landry Shamet return in 2000? Wasn't it #18 in the 2000 draft?

Atlanta not giving #13 straight up for Hauser, but moving back 15 spots.

redslastlaugh wrote:

brackdan70 wrote:I like Hauser too, but I think that is very optimistic on his value. Can you think of a situation where a similar player to Hauser brought in that kind of value?

edit: i think this whole post undermined my case, lol ... i'm trying to do 15 things at the moment, i'll come back to it later, sorry


Dallas got #25 for taking 2 yrs of bad salary for Richaun Holmes at roughly the same number as Sam.
Sam is a positive contract and Atlanta is only moving back 15 spots.

What did Landry Shamet return in 2000? Wasn't it #18 in the 2000 draft?

Atlanta not giving #13 straight up for Hauser, but moving back 15 spots.

Brad would get another gold star if he pulled off though. It probably depends who is available at 13 for Atlanta.
What about including the 2026 pick going to Atlanta. That seems like they could move up 13 spots then.

brackdan70 wrote:

redslastlaugh wrote:

brackdan70 wrote:I like Hauser too, but I think that is very optimistic on his value. Can you think of a situation where a similar player to Hauser brought in that kind of value?

edit: i think this whole post undermined my case, lol ... i'm trying to do 15 things at the moment, i'll come back to it later, sorry


Dallas got #25 for taking 2 yrs of bad salary for Richaun Holmes at roughly the same number as Sam.
Sam is a positive contract and Atlanta is only moving back 15 spots.

What did Landry Shamet return in 2000? Wasn't it #18 in the 2000 draft?

Atlanta not giving #13 straight up for Hauser, but moving back 15 spots.

Brad would get another gold star if he pulled off though. It probably depends who is available at 13 for Atlanta.
What about including the 2026 pick going to Atlanta. That seems like they could move up 13 spots then.

Moving 15 picks to 13 is just a whole different level than moving up 10 spots to 18, or 6 spots to 22,imo. Each spot as you enter the lottery and closer to 1 is much more expensive.

If Brad can make it happen, great. But I just don’t see it, even with multiple firsts.

Wiz fan here - would gladly take a late first or early second in return for taking on an 8.5 mil expiring contract.

For Hauser, I'd take him on but wouldn't give up a pick to make it happen. Put Hauser on the Wiz and I think his numbers don't look too much different from a guy who they already have - Corey Kispert.

Alright, so here's how I value Sam Hauser.
Undrafted in 2021, he is currently 10th in winshares for his draft class. His per 48 ws is .134 . He played in 79 games this year. He is 27 yrs. He has shot over .400 on 3PTA every year of his career. By basic catchall metric like RAPTOR WAR he was 102nd in the league for wins over replacement despite coming off the bench. He is signed for four more years at $11/avg.

High level role players like Sam traded for picks in recent years include:
De'Anthony Melton (ws/48 = .084) traded for #23 pick in 2022
Royce O'Neale (ws/48 = .092) traded in 2022 for a "worst of" first that became #29 in 2023
Aaron Holiday (ws/48 = .066) traded by WAS with pick #31 for #22 in 2021

If Melton and O'Neale are roughly worth a 1st in the 20s. And Aaron Holiday is worth moving up 9 spots. I dunno. Sam Hauser by most metrics is atleast as valuable as these other players. So if you see Aaron Holiday plus a 1st (#31 actually) moving a team 9 slots, then Sam Hauser plus a 1st should move you up more than 9 spots.

Is Hauser + #28 worth #13. I don't think it's outlandish at all. If you think in a rising cap environment, you are getting the 100th winningest player in reg season games for $11 million per. I don't think that's a misvaluation at all, especially for a team like Atlanta who owes future firsts to another team so wants badly to land in the playoffs next couple of yrs.

In fact, I think if Atlanta offered #13 for Sam Hauser + #28, I think Boston would hold a meeting and contemplate the offer, but ultimately choose not do it. That's my guess anyway

djFan71 wrote:

brackdan70 wrote:Brad would get another gold star if he pulled off though. It probably depends who is available at 13 for Atlanta.
What about including the 2026 pick going to Atlanta. That seems like they could move up 13 spots then.

Moving 15 picks to 13 is just a whole different level than moving up 10 spots to 18, or 6 spots to 22,imo. Each spot as you enter the lottery and closer to 1 is much more expensive.

If Brad can make it happen, great. But I just don’t see it, even with multiple firsts.

Can Detroit swoop in and offer Fontechio and some 2nds to whoever is getting Niang?

9 and 20 wrote:Wiz fan here - would gladly take a late first or early second in return for taking on an 8.5 mil expiring contract.

For Hauser, I'd take him on but wouldn't give up a pick to make it happen. Put Hauser on the Wiz and I think his numbers don't look too much different from a guy who they already have - Corey Kispert.

Hauser is just plain elite at shooting and a much better defender than most realize. You’d notice the upgrade on both ends, imo. I do like Kispert, but Sam’s done it at a higher level, all the way thru the NBA Finals. He definitely benefits from playing with Tatum, but a good percentage of his numbers come with 3 other bench guys and JT, so it’s not just wide open shots or anything.

redslastlaugh wrote:Alright, so here's how I value Sam Hauser.
Undrafted in 2021, he is currently 10th in winshares for his draft class. His per 48 ws is .134 . He played in 79 games this year. He is 27 yrs. He has shot over .400 on 3PTA every year of his career. By basic catchall metric like RAPTOR WAR he was 102nd in the league for wins over replacement despite coming off the bench. He is signed for four more years at $11/avg.

High level role players like Sam traded for picks in recent years include:
De'Anthony Melton (ws/48 = .084) traded for #23 pick in 2022
Royce O'Neale (ws/48 = .092) traded in 2022 for a "worst of" first that became #29 in 2023
Aaron Holiday (ws/48 = .066) traded by WAS with pick #31 for #22 in 2021

If Melton and O'Neale are roughly worth a 1st in the 20s. And Aaron Holiday is worth moving up 9 spots. I dunno. Sam Hauser by most metrics is atleast as valuable as these other players. So if you see Aaron Holiday plus a 1st (#31 actually) moving a team 9 slots, then Sam Hauser plus a 1st should move you up more than 9 spots.

Is Hauser + #28 worth #13. I don't think it's outlandish at all. If you think in a rising cap environment, you are getting the 100th winningest player in reg season games for $11 million per. I don't think that's a misvaluation at all, especially for a team like Atlanta who owes future firsts to another team so wants badly to land in the playoffs next couple of yrs.

In fact, I think if Atlanta offered #13 for Sam Hauser + #28, I think Boston would hold a meeting and contemplate the offer, but ultimately choose not do it. That's my guess anyway

djFan71 wrote:

brackdan70 wrote:Brad would get another gold star if he pulled off though. It probably depends who is available at 13 for Atlanta.
What about including the 2026 pick going to Atlanta. That seems like they could move up 13 spots then.

Moving 15 picks to 13 is just a whole different level than moving up 10 spots to 18, or 6 spots to 22,imo. Each spot as you enter the lottery and closer to 1 is much more expensive.

If Brad can make it happen, great. But I just don’t see it, even with multiple firsts.

Thanks for providing the solid rationale. Yeah It’s maybe not outlandish. I just think 13 in this draft ( a really good draft) is a pretty high level asset. I don’t see Hauser and 28 quite being enough.

brackdan70 wrote:

redslastlaugh wrote:Alright, so here's how I value Sam Hauser.
Undrafted in 2021, he is currently 10th in winshares for his draft class. His per 48 ws is .134 . He played in 79 games this year. He is 27 yrs. He has shot over .400 on 3PTA every year of his career. By basic catchall metric like RAPTOR WAR he was 102nd in the league for wins over replacement despite coming off the bench. He is signed for four more years at $11/avg.

High level role players like Sam traded for picks in recent years include:
De'Anthony Melton (ws/48 = .084) traded for #23 pick in 2022
Royce O'Neale (ws/48 = .092) traded in 2022 for a "worst of" first that became #29 in 2023
Aaron Holiday (ws/48 = .066) traded by WAS with pick #31 for #22 in 2021

If Melton and O'Neale are roughly worth a 1st in the 20s. And Aaron Holiday is worth moving up 9 spots. I dunno. Sam Hauser by most metrics is atleast as valuable as these other players. So if you see Aaron Holiday plus a 1st (#31 actually) moving a team 9 slots, then Sam Hauser plus a 1st should move you up more than 9 spots.

Is Hauser + #28 worth #13. I don't think it's outlandish at all. If you think in a rising cap environment, you are getting the 100th winningest player in reg season games for $11 million per. I don't think that's a misvaluation at all, especially for a team like Atlanta who owes future firsts to another team so wants badly to land in the playoffs next couple of yrs.

In fact, I think if Atlanta offered #13 for Sam Hauser + #28, I think Boston would hold a meeting and contemplate the offer, but ultimately choose not do it. That's my guess anyway

djFan71 wrote:Moving 15 picks to 13 is just a whole different level than moving up 10 spots to 18, or 6 spots to 22,imo. Each spot as you enter the lottery and closer to 1 is much more expensive.

If Brad can make it happen, great. But I just don’t see it, even with multiple firsts.

Thanks for providing the solid rationale. Yeah It’s maybe not outlandish. I just think 13 in this draft ( a really good draft) is a pretty high level asset. I don’t see Hauser and 28 quite being enough.

Agreed with the bolded.
And as noted, Hawks being out future pics would prefer taking a swing at a higher level talent in this draft.
They might also prefer Niang's expiring contract after this season, as Jalen Johnson and now Dyson Daniel's extension would be kicking in.

brackdan70 wrote:

redslastlaugh wrote:Alright, so here's how I value Sam Hauser.
Undrafted in 2021, he is currently 10th in winshares for his draft class. His per 48 ws is .134 . He played in 79 games this year. He is 27 yrs. He has shot over .400 on 3PTA every year of his career. By basic catchall metric like RAPTOR WAR he was 102nd in the league for wins over replacement despite coming off the bench. He is signed for four more years at $11/avg.

High level role players like Sam traded for picks in recent years include:
De'Anthony Melton (ws/48 = .084) traded for #23 pick in 2022
Royce O'Neale (ws/48 = .092) traded in 2022 for a "worst of" first that became #29 in 2023
Aaron Holiday (ws/48 = .066) traded by WAS with pick #31 for #22 in 2021

If Melton and O'Neale are roughly worth a 1st in the 20s. And Aaron Holiday is worth moving up 9 spots. I dunno. Sam Hauser by most metrics is atleast as valuable as these other players. So if you see Aaron Holiday plus a 1st (#31 actually) moving a team 9 slots, then Sam Hauser plus a 1st should move you up more than 9 spots.

Is Hauser + #28 worth #13. I don't think it's outlandish at all. If you think in a rising cap environment, you are getting the 100th winningest player in reg season games for $11 million per. I don't think that's a misvaluation at all, especially for a team like Atlanta who owes future firsts to another team so wants badly to land in the playoffs next couple of yrs.

In fact, I think if Atlanta offered #13 for Sam Hauser + #28, I think Boston would hold a meeting and contemplate the offer, but ultimately choose not do it. That's my guess anyway

djFan71 wrote:Moving 15 picks to 13 is just a whole different level than moving up 10 spots to 18, or 6 spots to 22,imo. Each spot as you enter the lottery and closer to 1 is much more expensive.

If Brad can make it happen, great. But I just don’t see it, even with multiple firsts.

Thanks for providing the solid rationale. Yeah It’s maybe not outlandish. I just think 13 in this draft ( a really good draft) is a pretty high level asset. I don’t see Hauser and 28 quite being enough.

Yeah, I agree with this. But, not trying to devalue Hauser either. Obviously, my original got us to 18 (with 32), so I value him pretty highly as well. This is about as low as I'd go:

ATL sends 22/Niang/27 CLE 2nd for 28/Hauser
BOS sends 28/32/Hauser for 22, 45, 22 CLE 2nd
WAS sends 45 for 32/Niang

That's a big jump for WAS for taking an expiring player that is only $8.5M and could be flipped elsewhere (see DET post above).
ATL chips in one more asset as well.

If $ wasn't a concern, I don't touch this. But, it is. And I think 22 is a good jump in prospect level from 28 in this draft. So, I pull the trigger.

djFan71 wrote:WAS sends 45 for 32/Niang

That's a big jump for WAS for taking an expiring player that is only $8.5M and could be flipped elsewhere (see DET post above).

Spending $8.5M to move up 13 spots in the second round is really poor value. Just a year ago, the Wizards got paid one high SRP and one mid SRP to absorb the $12.5M salary of Bagley for one year.

I might pay that to move up all the way to #28. Or I'd do it to acquire he #32 without giving up the #45.