TOR - ORL: Immanuel Quickley as the PG solution

[MessiahUjiri]

The Magic:
It’s obvious the Magic will make a move for PG this offseason. They have 4 picks, but there’s no way they will bring 4 rookies in - a trade is inevitable.
They need shooting and backcourt creation. Their core is in their early to mid 20s, and it would be great to get someone who matches their timeline.


The Raptors
The Raptors are in a much earlier stage of team building cycle. They really like Quickley:17 & 7 with good shooting, and locked for 4 years. But they should be open to shopping him if they get a package that makes the team better.
The Raps FO seems to love this draft. They’ve been scouting guys in person who are around the ORL #16 pick (eg Traore, Demin). They also seem to love guys like Anthony Black - 6’7, smart and versatile.


Here’s the trade:

Immanuel Quickley for Anthony Black, #16, salary (KCP)



The Magic would be ready to compete for multiple years:

Quickley / Cole
Suggs / Harris?
Wagner / TDS
Paolo / Isaac
WCJ / Goga / Wagner

+ #23, #46, #57



The Raptors could go Maluach #7 + Traore/Demin #16, and get a complete team that can grow:

Black / Traore
Barrett / KCP / Jakobe
Ingram / Dick / Ochai
Barnes /
Poeltl / Maluach

[giberish]

I don't think Quickley has this sort of value. I liked him at $25M but IMO he's a bit overpaid now. Granted KCP's a negative value return but even then I think Quickley's getting Black or #16, not both. There are enough other PG options available that Orlando can shop around a bit.

Though the one point in Quickley's favor is that he's much better on defense that the other common options.

[MessiahUjiri]

I don't think Quickley has this sort of value. I liked him at $25M but IMO he's a bit overpaid now. Granted KCP's a negative value return but even then I think Quickley's getting Black or #16, not both. There are enough other PG options available that Orlando can shop around a bit.

Though the one point in Quickley's favor is that he's much better on defense that the other common options.

Yeah you addressed it:

KCP is negative value
Black is still theoretical value after 2 years
Quickley is very good at 3 pt%, decent D, and locked on a flat contract that will look cheaper each year.

[Godaddycurse]

Raptors are not doing this after trading for Ingram. Maybe if we luck into Harper but even then i doubt it

[redslastlaugh]

IQ is a great fit for the Magic, perfect type of player.
Unfortunately, the contract he's on is just a killer, highly dissuasive from a trading partner's perspective.

You look now at the non-allstar type player extensions from the 2020 draft.
Isaiah Stewart making $15/yr
Pritchard making $8/yr
Nesmith making $11/yr
Saddiq Bey making $7/ yr (coming off the injury)
Jalen Smith making $10/yr
Deni Advijia making $14/yr
Okongwu making $15/yr
Isaiah Joe is making $12/yr

...

Once the new CBA really got digested by NBA teams, Quickley at $32.5/yr is just impossible to justify, at least unless Quickley really takes another leap next year.

Immanuel Quickley for Anthony Black, #16, salary (KCP)



The Magic would be ready to compete for multiple years:

Quickley / Cole
Suggs / Harris?
Wagner / TDS
Paolo / Isaac
WCJ / Goga / Wagner

+ #23, #46, #57



The Raptors could go Maluach #7 + Traore/Demin #16, and get a complete team that can grow:

Black / Traore
Barrett / KCP / Jakobe
Ingram / Dick / Ochai
Barnes /
Poeltl / Maluach

[jbk1234]

I have IQ at slightly negative value on his new contract. That return seems wildly optimistic. He's young. There's potential for improvement still, but he did not look good as a starter.

[Godaddycurse]

I have IQ at slightly negative value on his new contract. That return seems wildly optimistic. He's young. There's potential for improvement still, but he did not look good as a starter.

22/5/7 per 36 min on 57% TS, 30% AST% to 10% TOV%. Positive EPM (2.1 - 89th percentile). What didnt look good about it?

Seemed to me he was about middle of the pack amongst starting PGs this year based on those numbers. His contract was a bit overpaid this year but will fall relative to the cap as time passes (~17% of cap by year 4/5)

[Skybox]

As a really big fan of IQ and still scarred that ORL didn’t go at him from NY when it seemed obvious NYK couldn’t/shouldnt pay him what he was worth to be Brunson’s backup…I would do it - but that is a pretty strong return for him. Black isn’t the PG we hoped, but he’s everything else and he’d be missed…the deciding factor for me is that AB is probably due a big extension in two years…which might have priced him out of ORL anyway. If I’m ORL, I jump on it and quickly look to see where I can trim medium-range salary elsewhere on the roster. IQ IS overpaid, but so was Rashard Lewis…because he was just what they needed. The price was quickly forgotten when the team success came.

[jbk1234]

I have IQ at slightly negative value on his new contract. That return seems wildly optimistic. He's young. There's potential for improvement still, but he did not look good as a starter.

22/5/7 per 36 min on 57% TS, 30% AST% to 10% TOV%. Positive EPM. What didnt look good about it?

His TS% was helped mightly by his FT%,. A 42% FG% isn't great from your starting PG. Granted I didn't watch a whole lot of Raptors games, but he seemed to struggle with POA offense against better defenders.

[Devilanche]

Believe he’s worth either black or #16 . Not both . If Toronto wants both , they probably should send back a protected future first .

[Godaddycurse]

I have IQ at slightly negative value on his new contract. That return seems wildly optimistic. He's young. There's potential for improvement still, but he did not look good as a starter.

22/5/7 per 36 min on 57% TS, 30% AST% to 10% TOV%. Positive EPM. What didnt look good about it?

His TS% was helped mightly by his FT%,. A 42% FG% isn't great from your starting PG. Granted I didn't watch a whole lot of Raptors games, but he seemed to struggle with POA offense against better defenders.

ya, defense definitely could've been better. i think his efficiency% will improve when he plays with our complete lineup including Ingram. Overall his paly was okay for a starting PG this year. Not great, but decent enough.

[Texas Chuck]

I can accept Toronto doesn't want to trade him but feels like malpractice not to trade him for this level of overpay.

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[jbk1234]

22/5/7 per 36 min on 57% TS, 30% AST% to 10% TOV%. Positive EPM. What didnt look good about it?

His TS% was helped mightly by his FT%,. A 42% FG% isn't great from your starting PG. Granted I didn't watch a whole lot of Raptors games, but he seemed to struggle with POA offense against better defenders.

ya, defense definitely could've been better. i think his efficiency% will improve when he plays with our complete lineup including Ingram. Overall his paly was okay for a starting PG this year. Not great, but decent enough.

I'm not talking about defense, although that was underwhelming as well. Based on what I saw, he struggled breaking down a defense in a half court setting.

[Godaddycurse]

His TS% was helped mightly by his FT%,. A 42% FG% isn't great from your starting PG. Granted I didn't watch a whole lot of Raptors games, but he seemed to struggle with POA offense against better defenders.

ya, defense definitely could've been better. i think his efficiency% will improve when he plays with our complete lineup including Ingram. Overall his paly was okay for a starting PG this year. Not great, but decent enough.

I'm not talking about defense, although that was underwhelming as well. Based on what I saw, he struggled breaking down a defense in a half court setting.

sorry i misread. Agreed he wasn't the best at creating for himself/breaking down a D. It didn't help that his floater has gone MIA since coming over from New York. Seemed to me like the increase playmaking duties took a toll on his ability to convert shots. It's why Masai got Ingram for better self creation in crunch time. Will see how he does next year with hopefully better health and teammates around him.

[oldncreaky]

Agree with those who think IQ is maybe worth Black, or a FRP, but definitely not both

I do like the fit of IQ in Orlando both from a play style and contract structure. With Paolo and Franz on max salaries, ORL won't be able to fit a max-level guard and still fill out the roster. With IQ on a flat deal, and Suggs on a declining deal (what a steal!), ORL would have a legit chance to build around a core of Paolo-Franz-Suggs-IQ. Ceiling would depend on how much Paolo and/or Franz can develop . . .

For TOR, I only see this making sense if one of their guys on rookie contracts busts through and plays well enough to demand the starting PG spot, and you also have a functional backup PG option. Maybe TOR's lottery pick lands on a PG as BPA; maybe Shead and/or Walter take an unexpected leap. All fairly low odds.

However, if TOR has a workable PG rotation without IQ, moving IQ for (1) front-court help and (2) a bit of financial breathing room would make a lot of sense and be fairer value. While Black is nice, TOR has a half-dozen guys who can play SG and if none of them work out TOR is play-in at best anyway. Also TOR has a gaping hole whenever Poeltl sits, and if TOR doesn''t address this problem the bottom could fall out if he misses time due to injury.

I'd suggest:
TOR out/ORL in: Quickley ($32.5M)
ORL out/TOR in: KCP, Bitadze ($29.9M) plus a SRP or 2

I've got KCP as more negative than IQ, so 1 or 2 SRPs is to balance value, but YMMV

[Godaddycurse]

I'd suggest:
TOR out/ORL in: Quickley ($32.5M)
ORL out/TOR in: KCP, Bitadze ($29.9M) plus a SRP or 2

I've got KCP as more negative than IQ, so 1 or 2 SRPs is to balance value, but YMMV

Cant imagine masai turning the prize of OG trade into 2 veteran backups and SRPs.

I have bitadze and 2nds worth less than black or 16 as well. Value wisr probably need to add 25 at least but i still wouldnt do it due to wrong direction

[oldncreaky]

I'd suggest:
TOR out/ORL in: Quickley ($32.5M)
ORL out/TOR in: KCP, Bitadze ($29.9M) plus a SRP or 2

I've got KCP as more negative than IQ, so 1 or 2 SRPs is to balance value, but YMMV

Cant imagine masai turning the prize of OG trade into 2 veteran backups and SRPs.

I have bitadze and 2nds worth less than black or 16 as well. Value wisr probably need to add 25 but i wouldnt do it due to direction

There is always the sunk cost fallacy, and GMs do tend act like they buy into that. Can always spin that RJ was the real prize of the OG trade though

But if TOR gets pick 2, 3 or 4 in the lottery, there's a good chance they take a PG with that pick, and that shaving $2.5M off the salary sheet will be the difference between paying taxes or not. I don't think IQ's contract turns into an asset until the 3rd or maybe even 4th year of the deal, so getting off it for a position of dire need and saving money are pretty good motivations

[Godaddycurse]

I'd suggest:
TOR out/ORL in: Quickley ($32.5M)
ORL out/TOR in: KCP, Bitadze ($29.9M) plus a SRP or 2

I've got KCP as more negative than IQ, so 1 or 2 SRPs is to balance value, but YMMV

Cant imagine masai turning the prize of OG trade into 2 veteran backups and SRPs.

I have bitadze and 2nds worth less than black or 16 as well. Value wisr probably need to add 25 but i wouldnt do it due to direction

There is always the sunk cost fallacy, and GMs do tend act like they buy into that. Can always spin that RJ was the real prize of the OG trade though

But if TOR gets pick 2, 3 or 4 in the lottery, there's a good chance they take a PG with that pick, and that shaving $2.5M off the salary sheet will be the difference between paying taxes or not. I don't think IQ's contract turns into an asset until the 3rd or maybe even 4th year of the deal, so getting off it for a position of dire need and saving money are pretty good motivations

they will/should trade RJ before IQ to save money. IQ provides much needed spacing. The top PGs (outside of richardson) in this draft are not known for their 3 pt shooting

[MessiahUjiri]

Agree with those who think IQ is maybe worth Black, or a FRP, but definitely not both

I do like the fit of IQ in Orlando both from a play style and contract structure.


I'd suggest:
TOR out/ORL in: Quickley ($32.5M)
ORL out/TOR in: KCP, Bitadze ($29.9M) plus a SRP or 2

I've got KCP as more negative than IQ, so 1 or 2 SRPs is to balance value, but YMMV

It makes zero sense for Toronto to take on an aging KCP and a backup C for a couple of 2nds.

Add in #16 and it’s closer, but still not enough for Toronto. At 16, you’re not getting stars, so it’s better to take the floor spacing contributions of Quickley.

[oldncreaky]

Agree with those who think IQ is maybe worth Black, or a FRP, but definitely not both

I do like the fit of IQ in Orlando both from a play style and contract structure.


I'd suggest:
TOR out/ORL in: Quickley ($32.5M)
ORL out/TOR in: KCP, Bitadze ($29.9M) plus a SRP or 2

I've got KCP as more negative than IQ, so 1 or 2 SRPs is to balance value, but YMMV

It makes zero sense for Toronto to take on an aging KCP and a backup C for a couple of 2nds.

Add in #16 and it’s closer, but still not enough for Toronto. At 16, you’re not getting stars, so it’s better to take the floor spacing contributions of Quickley.

I have IQ as a slightly negative asset at the moment (in the second year of his contract). I think he turns into a positive asset either in 2026 or 2027 at the latest because of a flat salary and rising cap, but if he is moved this summer I doubt he's moved for much value