Cam Johnson to Hou, Jalen Green to Chicago

[K_chile22]

Houston out: Jalen Green, 10, 2 future seconds
Houston in: Cam Johnson, Lonzo Ball, 27

Brooklyn out: Cam Johnson, 27
Brooklyn in: 10, preferred filler salary between Zach Collins and Kevin Huerter

Chicago out: Lonzo, Collins/Huerter (BKN's choice)
Chicago in: Jalen Green, 2 2nds

Houston moves down quite far to swap Jalen for a couple dribble/pass/shoot connector guys

Brooklyn commits to another tank year before they owe a swap in 27 after some poor lotto luck and move up to have 2 top 10 picks while also keeping their books clean as they seem to love

Chicago takes a swing on Jalen for not much opportunity cost to give them some athleticism next to giddey

[Texas Chuck]

What is Houston's follow up move? I like this trade, but then I look at the Rockets and its asking a ton from Sengun/FVV offensively. Like it for the other two as is.

[LarsV8]

This doesn't work because you don't have an offensive creator / ie someone to put pressure on the defense.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Interesting, yes, very interesting.

Cam Johnson was a player I thought OKC should have seriously pursued, given his size, allowing him to stay on the court in playoff series, while a shorter gunner like Isaiah Joe simply can't.

Houston opening things up for Sengun/Amen with a movement shooter with size fixes a lot of Houston's problems without sacrificing being big.

Brooklyn receives an asset at the top of what is realistic in a Cam trade.

Chicago takes a flier on a high-upside scoring guard. His fit with Giddey is, in theory, good as a larger point-guard type pairs well with Jalen Green.

The minor fix I could throw out is #26 going to Houston and #27 going to Chicago instead of 2nds.

[Mamba4Goat]

This doesn't work because you don't have an offensive creator / ie someone to put pressure on the defense.

Would more Cam Whitmore be the logical fix to this?

[K_chile22]

This doesn't work because you don't have an offensive creator / ie someone to put pressure on the defense.

Amen with another year of development and better off the ball players. All the data says the Rockets are leagues better when Jalen is off the floor, they may need a regular season possession eater guard but I don't think that's hard to find and I don't think Jalen is particularly good at what you're describing

[K_chile22]

What is Houston's follow up move? I like this trade, but then I look at the Rockets and its asking a ton from Sengun/FVV offensively. Like it for the other two as is.

Them plus Amen and these two guys helping with off ball play should be enough but may need someone to just eat possessions to get through the regular season for sure

[LarsV8]

This doesn't work because you don't have an offensive creator / ie someone to put pressure on the defense.

Would more Cam Whitmore be the logical fix to this?

That is an awful lot of faith in Whitmore, but I think Houston would want to ease him in, and not throw him in the fire.

I am generally opposed to these types of moves, as they aren't that impactful and cost assets.

The next move we need to make is either
A.) get a star
B.) small moves to better position yourself going forward for a star trade. IE #10 for future picks.

[gswhoops]

The lynchpin here is whether you can convince Chicago to gamble on Green. I don't think they do that without some real incentive. 3 years $105MM for a guy who hasn't shown much real growth since he entered the league is a hard sell, especially given his disappearing act in the playoffs and the fact that Houston is better with him off the floor.

[LarsV8]

This doesn't work because you don't have an offensive creator / ie someone to put pressure on the defense.

Amen with another year of development and better off the ball players. All the data says the Rockets are leagues better when Jalen is off the floor, they may need a regular season possession eater guard but I don't think that's hard to find and I don't think Jalen is particularly good at what you're describing

Amen has shown little ability to be POA, he can do it in spurts, but I don't see him in that role, he is much more valuable as a cutter / lob. I really had hopes of him coming out of the draft as being our future PG, but over the past two years its looks more and more like he will never be a PG, and his natural fit will be at 3/4.

As Stone said specifically, the data lies.

I am not saying Jalen is some awesome creator, but if you blindly follow on/off, you disregard critical role / circumstance issues. Maybe Reed can pick it up eventually, but for now, Green still makes sense.

Adding Cam Johnson just doesn't really do much, we already have very capable players in that slot, it would just create a logjam. Spending a top ten pick to create a log jam, and make a weakness on your team, even more weak, is not a good idea.

[ChettheJet]

I can just about do it for the Bulls, more so if they move Huerter rather than Collins. Thinking being that they still have enough guards and with hopes of trading Vucevic Collins/Smith is the center tandem. This from the guy who, likes keeping Huerter and Ball. Yes it sounds even better getting #27 to keep or trade.

Possibly they end up keeping Coby White who comes off the bench behind Giddey and Green. They might keep Dosunmu and draft a 2/3 at #12. The wildcard in making deals is just who do they get back trading Vucevic. Unlikely it's one $21M guy, could be 2 $10M guys no matter it won't be some stiff sitting on the bench but then at what positions do they get someone back?

[Godaddycurse]

The lynchpin here is whether you can convince Chicago to gamble on Green. I don't think they do that without some real incentive. 3 years $105MM for a guy who hasn't shown much real growth since he entered the league is a hard sell, especially given his disappearing act in the playoffs and the fact that Houston is better with him off the floor.

This. I dont see Chicago forgoing 2026 cap space for Jalen Green without some meaningful incentive

[K_chile22]

This doesn't work because you don't have an offensive creator / ie someone to put pressure on the defense.

Amen with another year of development and better off the ball players. All the data says the Rockets are leagues better when Jalen is off the floor, they may need a regular season possession eater guard but I don't think that's hard to find and I don't think Jalen is particularly good at what you're describing

Amen has shown little ability to be POA, he can do it in spurts, but I don't see him in that role, he is much more valuable as a cutter / lob. I really had hopes of him coming out of the draft as being our future PG, but over the past two years its looks more and more like he will never be a PG, and his natural fit will be at 3/4.

As Stone said specifically, the data lies.

I am not saying Jalen is some awesome creator, but if you blindly follow on/off, you disregard critical role / circumstance issues. Maybe Reed can pick it up eventually, but for now, Green still makes sense.

Adding Cam Johnson just doesn't really do much, we already have very capable players in that slot, it would just create a logjam. Spending a top ten pick to create a log jam, and make a weakness on your team, even more weak, is not a good idea.

Stone is not gonna say "yeah he hasn't been good" lol come on. It is in his best interest to say that. idk how you can write off Amen's on ball growth which came a very very long way from year 1 but still believe in Jalen Green. Cam Johnson does something no one else on this team can do as an off ball mover, shooter and connector piece, he can be slotted at 2-4 offensively. If you look past basketball reference listed positions he is not redundant at all with this team

[gswhoops]

Amen has shown little ability to be POA, he can do it in spurts, but I don't see him in that role, he is much more valuable as a cutter / lob. I really had hopes of him coming out of the draft as being our future PG, but over the past two years its looks more and more like he will never be a PG, and his natural fit will be at 3/4.

As Stone said specifically, the data lies.

I am not saying Jalen is some awesome creator, but if you blindly follow on/off, you disregard critical role / circumstance issues. Maybe Reed can pick it up eventually, but for now, Green still makes sense.

Adding Cam Johnson just doesn't really do much, we already have very capable players in that slot, it would just create a logjam. Spending a top ten pick to create a log jam, and make a weakness on your team, even more weak, is not a good idea.

Stone is not gonna say "yeah he hasn't been good" lol come on. It is in his best interest to say that. idk how you can write off Amen's on ball growth which came a very very long way from year 1 but still believe in Jalen Green. Cam Johnson does something no one else on this team can do as an off ball mover, shooter and connector piece, he can be slotted at 2-4 offensively. If you look past basketball reference listed positions he is not redundant at all with this team

"Yeah this guy is a**, who wants to trade us something for him"

[hugepatsfan]

Would HOU have any interest in Jaylen Brown or Derrick White? There's mention here of need for more offensive creation juice, so I'd suggest one of them as a target either as a separate deal or expansion of this one.

From my perspective, it feels like Brown is the wing scorer they'd need, but maybe a level below where they want to push their chips in now. Between the assets he'd take and his contract, he kind of "clogs" them from what else they could do and being so young I think maybe they'd want to hold out hope for better? And on White, it feels like he might not be the TYPE of playmaker/shot creator they want unless FVV is dealt for a more traditional wing player. So neither might be a great fit there all things considered.

[LarsV8]

Stone is not gonna say "yeah he hasn't been good" lol come on. It is in his best interest to say that.

That's not the way that it works though.

You can't play every player 48 minutes, so you can't just shoe in the other lineups as an alternative, you have to consider roles.

So lets say the other team has a lineup with no decent POA defense, Fred is sitting, Green is gone, you could get away with Amen at the POA and play a good mix of off ball guys with good impact, and the on/off would look great, better than if Jalen was in place of Amen, because he can just overwhelm guys. The on / off will favor Amen and make Jalen look bad

Now, lets say, you have Fred on the bench, and Green is gone, but the opposition still has good a good POA defender, if you tried to play Amen, he would not be able to consistently break down defenses and struggle quite a bit, he would be a turnover machine, and his on/off would plummet. Jalen is not exceptional in that role, but he is acceptable, and better at it than Amen.

This is exactly what Stone is referring too. You can't use impact stats blindly like that.

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/11/lineups#tab-four_factors

Sort by lineups, you can see the high possession lineups. They all have either FVV or JG in them, because they are the only guys with the POA skillset.

[K_chile22]

Stone is not gonna say "yeah he hasn't been good" lol come on. It is in his best interest to say that.

That's not the way that it works though.

You can't play every player 48 minutes, so you can't just shoe in the other lineups as an alternative, you have to consider roles.

So lets say the other team has a lineup with no decent POA defense, Fred is sitting, Green is gone, you could get away with Amen at the POA and play a good mix of off ball guys with good impact, and the on/off would look great, better than if Jalen was in place of Amen, because he can just overwhelm guys. The on / off will favor Amen and make Jalen look bad

Now, lets say, you have Fred on the bench, and Green is gone, but the opposition still has good a good POA defender, if you tried to play Amen, he would not be able to consistently break down defenses and struggle quite a bit, he would be a turnover machine, and his on/off would plummet. Jalen is not exceptional in that role, but he is acceptable, and better at it than Amen.

This is exactly what Stone is referring too. You can't use impact stats blindly like that.

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/11/lineups#tab-four_factors

Sort by lineups, you can see the high possession lineups. They all have either FVV or JG in them, because they are the only guys with the POA skillset.

This is true in smaller sample sizes, there is a ton of noise in on/off even within a full season but this has been the case every single year of Jalen Green's career. The sample is huge. The starting four (Fred/Amen/Dillon/Sengun) is +35.6 in 256 minutes, obviously unsustainably good, but the old starting 4 with Jabari in for Amen no Jalen is also +10.9 in 225 minutes and was +19.8 in 170 minutes last year as well. With Jalen green as the fifth guy those lineups were -7.4, +7.3, +0.7 respectively. Jalen is in none of their best 2 man lineup combinations and most of their worst ones. The sample is too big and data too loud to just hand waive it off forever

[Frankie]

CJ in Houston is such an enticing idea.

I echo the sentiments that if we give up Green without replacing his PoA ball handling, then I feel like we would have plugged one hole whilst creating another hole.

I wonder if there is a package that exists out there that brings CJ and Booker to Houston, cuts Chicago out of the deal and just exchange assets between Houston, Brooklyn and Phoenix.

[LarsV8]

The sample is too big and data too loud to just hand waive it off forever

There is absolutely an opportunity to improve there.... at some point.

But you have too replace the role, not the player. Your trade doesn't do that and it leaves a huge roster construction issue.

This is why Booker is an obvious target (Hell, I still like Harden too). And maybe Cam or Reed can get there eventually.

But, to me, that is something you should work out after you make your big star move. Your assets should be saved to make that move, and you can work out the Jalen issue later, or when absolutely have no choice left, due to salary concerns. This works in the interim, as Jalen still has a chance to improve , due to his age.

[DrModesty]

Is Green better than Coby White? White is only 2 years older than Green, and at 25 it isn't like he can't be a long term piece for Chicago if the alternative isn't a clear step up. I definitely prefer White the shooter which feels important given Matas and Giddey aren't exactly trustworthy shooters at this stage.