Paolo/Harper swap? unlikely but kind of makes sense

[giberish]

Just throwing an unlikely idea out there that seems like a good fit and somewhat close in value:

Spurs trade #2(Harper) + filler (I think Barnes works) to Orlando for Paolo Banchero

Spurs: Figure Fox/Castle/Vassell is a very good guard rotation but they could use forward upgrade. Paolo gives them a star forward who isn't wildly too old for Wemby's timeline.

Orlando: Get a high-end offensive upgrade at guard to start with Suggs. Losing Paolo hurts but he didn't seem to impact their winning as much as his counting stats would indicate (perhaps overlap with Franz). Granted would now be looking for PF help rather than guard help.

[NYG]

Also it resets the contract for Orlando

[mademan]

Im fairly critical of Paolo, but I dont think Harper is a good enough prospect to get him straight up. Still an interesting trade and I can see SAS saying no and taking the cheaper salary for the next 5 years

[wemby]

I'm very high on Harper but I also love Paolo so this is a yes from me for the Spurs. Another interesting one is Franz.

[Texas Chuck]

Spurs making themselves super expensive without having a true #1 option feels wrong to me. Like how can you be opposed to Giannis but pro Banchero? The only way is if the only think you care about is age, which seems foolish to me.

[wemby]

Super expensive is relative, it's still going to be cheaper than Giannis (25% of the cap vs 35%) and one year delayed (next year Paolo is still on his rookie contract). There's also the assets side of this, here we're talking about a straight swap, none of the Giannis propositions were straight up swaps for #2 + filler, this gives the Spurs plenty of room to find additional pieces. And yes, age does matter, right now Giannis is clearly significantly better than Paolo, but in a few years I don't think he will be. With the left over assets, Spurs can go find themselves a couple of high level shooting wings and contend for 10+ years. Deals are a bit more nuanced than just who makes you better one month into making them, I don't know what's really surprising about that.

[Texas Chuck]

Giannis gives you an immediate contending window. Paulo may never give you one. So yeah, its way more valuable to have MVP level seasons even if you only get 2 or 3 than fringe all-star seasons even if you pay for 10 more of them.

But I realize few posters understand this despite the overwhelming evidence about how key those players are to titles. And the fetish of age and the belief that a guy is somehow going to just automatically reach a level of play because he's young.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I would also choose Giannis over Paolo, but if the former is not available to San Antonio, I like this idea.

As a true believer in Harper, I also like the idea for Orlando, although it arguably creates a hole as troublesome as the one it fills.

[wemby]

It's not just Giannis vs Paolo... I mean, I just typed it... it's right there for anyone to read... dear God...
PS: I love the condescending tone of "I realize few posters understand this" when it's in fact YOU who is making the simplistic read.

[Texas Chuck]

It's not just Giannis vs Paolo... I mean, I just typed it... it's right there for anyone to read... dear God...

I know Giannis is more valuable and would cost more. I mean obviously.

Hes also worth paying more for.

But hey as a Mavs fan I hope the Spurs brass thinks like you and doesn't go for Giannis. And keeps trading for 2nd tier "Stars": and paying them max contracts. Wemby may stay healthy and advance his offensive game enough that they still compete for a bunch of titles, but its definitely a harder approach.

[Texas Chuck]

.
PS: I love the condescending tone of "I realize few posters understand this" when it's in fact YOU who is making the simplistic read.

Oh Im definitely being condescending. But boy is a pot calling a kettle names here lol.

[Tim Lehrbach]

It's not just Giannis vs Paolo... I mean, I just typed it... it's right there for anyone to read... dear God...

I saw that, but I also tend to agree with TC that the additional assets/contracts it may take to get Giannis are worth it -- that he's just the better play. Consider it shorthand for choosing Giannis over Paolo + whatever else you might get making additional moves.

But there are so many "ifs" here it's hardly worth arguing over. We have no idea whether Milwaukee would trade Giannis or Orlando would trade Paolo for a San Antonio package, nor which one comes with a higher price in the first place. We also don't have any idea whether the Spurs agree with TC and me that it's wisest to maximize competing ASAP. Management may see it your way, or may not want to move Harper at all.

[One_and_Done]

I'd much rather Harper if I'm the Spurs. I'd be more tempted by Franz, but it's still probably a no.

[longfellow44]

Paolo is worth more than the 2nd pick in my mind. He is only 22 and he was putting up the kind of numbers that you can only hope a top pick will put up. I don't think it is worth the risk for Orlando to even consider. I doubt Harper ends up a better player than banchero, its possible but I think it's unlikely.

[JRoy]

I disagree.

Banchero looks like Randall to me.

[Chinook]

While I don't think folks should assume prospects will pan out to be All-Stars, Banchero is currently not so good that the Spurs can't project Harper being better. That's even more true if they see Dylan as THE GUY who will form the team's future core with Wemby. Having a star PG growing with your star center fits much better than having a star PF. That gets exacerbated by Wemby's style of play not really lending itself well to pairing with star front-court players. I think the Magic not wanting to make the trade makes sense, but I don't think the Spurs would want to unless they're seriously considering drafting someone else at 2 due to them believing Castle is the PG of the future still.

[jayjaysee]

I think this would be Wagner not Paolo.

[Tim Lehrbach]

While I don't think folks should assume prospects will pan out to be All-Stars, Banchero is currently not so good that the Spurs can't project Harper being better. That's even more true if they see Dylan as THE GUY who will form the team's future core with Wemby. Having a star PG growing with your star center fits much better than having a star PF. That gets exacerbated by Wemby's style of play not really lending itself well to pairing with star front-court players. I think the Magic not wanting to make the trade makes sense, but I don't think the Spurs would want to unless they're seriously considering drafting someone else at 2 due to them believing Castle is the PG of the future still.

This is a good point. If you truly believe in Harper you don't move him for a guy who is shy of being an all-world, surefire leader of a team poised to make deep runs. This is no knock on Paolo, just my appraisal of Harper's promise and how teams might look at investing in Banchero.

Take Wemby out of the equation for a second. If you were a terrible team looking for a franchise cornerstone, would you trade Harper for Banchero? Maybe, maybe not. Paolo is very, very good and obviously has an enormous head start over Harper, but he also has just enough limitations where you start to ask which guy is more likely to be your franchise player. It's important to forget your existing roster and aspirations as one angle to evaluating the draft. Harper is a guy you'd be ecstatic to land even if he was your only blue chip prospect.

The Spurs need to determine what they think they have in Harper and plan around that. You'd hate to make a move based on perceived roster redundancy, fit, or timeline, only to have Harper absolutely blow up and become somebody who would have rendered Fox and Castle afterthoughts, also surpassing great players like Paolo.

[jbk1234]

Top 5 picks are basically lottery tickets. Hitting on Banchero and trading him for Harper seems like winning $1,000 on a scratch off and buying a thousand more lottery ticks because there's a miniscule chance you could win $10,000. It's a bad bet.

I'm not a professional scout, but what based on what I've read Harper isn't a can't miss project with a ceiling through the roof. Even when prospects do rate out that way, injuries have derailed many a career in the cradle.

[Village Idiot]

Spurs making themselves super expensive without having a true #1 option feels wrong to me. Like how can you be opposed to Giannis but pro Banchero? The only way is if the only think you care about is age, which seems foolish to me.

You don't consider Wemby a probable true #1 option bases on a year and a half of NBA play? If not Wemby, whom?