RealGM

Boston gives-
J. Brown
J. Holiday
X. Tillman

Boston receives-
Z. Risacher
O. Okongwu
T. Mann
V. Krejci
2029 1st via ATL, top 1 protected

Trading Brown is tough, but they save 42 million in this trade along with some nice assets. This gives them a ton of flexibility. They could do practically whatever they want with KP, Hauser, and Mann-trade, keep, aggregate, whatever. They could decide to keep Thompson for themselves, along with the additional draft capital, and cut Brooklyn out. There's even a path to having cap space.

Atlanta gives-
Z. Risacher
O. Okongwu
T. Mann
V. Krejci
2029 1st top 1 protected
2027 1st, NOP or MIL swap rights
2031 2nd via Cleveland

Atlanta receives-
J. Brown
D. Gafford (25.3 mil TPE)
C. Martin (13.1 mil TPE)
X. Tillman

They're in a good cap situation right now and decide to go for it. The East is wide open so they bring the local kid home.

Dallas gives-
K. Thompson
D. Gafford
C. Martin
2030 2nd via PHI

Dallas gets-
J. Holiday

They give up questionable salary for questionable salary to improve the fit and double down on Defense. Keith Smith thinks Holiday has positive but not great value, and this deal reflects that.

Brooklyn gives-
Fake 2nds

Brooklyn gets-
K. Thompson, (TPE available)
2027 1st, NOP or MIL swap rights
2030 2nd via PHI
2031 2nd via Cleveland

Self explanatory

Take out the 2029 1st and I think you have a high, but feasible return for Jaylen Brown. So adding in the 2029 1st makes this a serious overvaluation of Brown. Then you have them shedding the entirety of Jrue’s money for free on top of that on the deal. Overall this just seems like your head is buried in the sand on how much Brown’s salary depresses his value.

this an interesting framework.
i don't think this is enough to move Brown. He'll turn 29 next October. And Boston really doesn't have to move him
so this is just not enough.

the baffling thing in all of this that the Boston ownership, having decided not to be an apron past 2 yrs, signed all these extensions in the first place.
Jrue was signed thru last playoffs, with an option for this year, but they extended him last April
Sam Hauser and Derrick White were signed through these playoffs, but they extended them deep past what they could pay

but despite their financial immaturity that put them into this spot, this deal is just insufficient return for Jaylen Brown at age 28.5

This leaves Atlanta with zero Centers

hugepatsfan wrote:Take out the 2029 1st and I think you have a high, but feasible return for Jaylen Brown. So adding in the 2029 1st makes this a serious overvaluation of Brown. Then you have them shedding the entirety of Jrue’s money for free on top of that on the deal. Overall this just seems like your head is buried in the sand on how much Brown’s salary depresses his value.

My head is certainly not buried in the sand and I doubt you get many of your valuations correct from what I've seen. If Brown gets traded then we'll all find out. Until then, your guess is no better than mine.

Godaddycurse wrote:This leaves Atlanta with zero Centers

Gafford, Tillman, 2 firsts this year, other means

hugepatsfan wrote:Take out the 2029 1st and I think you have a high, but feasible return for Jaylen Brown. So adding in the 2029 1st makes this a serious overvaluation of Brown. Then you have them shedding the entirety of Jrue’s money for free on top of that on the deal. Overall this just seems like your head is buried in the sand on how much Brown’s salary depresses his value.

whoa, I'd say this is way too insufficient for JB. i'd pass in one second and i don't even think it's close. this is 5 nickels for a quarter.

Cricket23 wrote:

Godaddycurse wrote:This leaves Atlanta with zero Centers

Gafford, Tillman, 2 firsts this year, other means

My bad missed gafford part. Tillman is JAG

Godaddycurse wrote:

Cricket23 wrote:

Godaddycurse wrote:This leaves Atlanta with zero Centers

Gafford, Tillman, 2 firsts this year, other means

My bad missed gafford part. Tillman is JAG

Yea Tillman couldn't even get on the court this year. Maybe there was an injury issue, idk, but he looked bad.

redslastlaugh wrote:

hugepatsfan wrote:Take out the 2029 1st and I think you have a high, but feasible return for Jaylen Brown. So adding in the 2029 1st makes this a serious overvaluation of Brown. Then you have them shedding the entirety of Jrue’s money for free on top of that on the deal. Overall this just seems like your head is buried in the sand on how much Brown’s salary depresses his value.

whoa, I'd say this is way too insufficient for JB. i'd pass in one second and i don't even think it's close. this is 5 nickels for a quarter.

Keep in mind, the flexibility allows the opportunity for Boston to acquire another impact player.

Cricket23 wrote:

redslastlaugh wrote:

hugepatsfan wrote:Take out the 2029 1st and I think you have a high, but feasible return for Jaylen Brown. So adding in the 2029 1st makes this a serious overvaluation of Brown. Then you have them shedding the entirety of Jrue’s money for free on top of that on the deal. Overall this just seems like your head is buried in the sand on how much Brown’s salary depresses his value.

whoa, I'd say this is way too insufficient for JB. i'd pass in one second and i don't even think it's close. this is 5 nickels for a quarter.

Keep in mind, the flexibility allows the opportunity for Boston to acquire another impact player.

JB deals are like Castle + #2 overall + Harrison Barnes
Or Cody Williams, Clarkson, Sexton, #5 overall + 2-3 future #1's including unprotected Phoenix 31
Those Atlanta players are not the type of return that gets Jaylen

redslastlaugh wrote:

Cricket23 wrote:

redslastlaugh wrote:whoa, I'd say this is way too insufficient for JB. i'd pass in one second and i don't even think it's close. this is 5 nickels for a quarter.

Keep in mind, the flexibility allows the opportunity for Boston to acquire another impact player.

JB deals are like Castle + #2 overall + Harrison Barnes
Or Cody Williams, Clarkson, Sexton, #5 overall + 2-3 future #1's including unprotected Phoenix 31
Those Atlanta players are not the type of return that gets Jaylen

I'm high on Risacher, I understand others may not be.

Cricket23 wrote:Boston gives-
J. Brown
J. Holiday
X. Tillman

Boston receives-
Z. Risacher
O. Okongwu
T. Mann
V. Krejci
2029 1st via ATL, top 1 protected

Trading Brown is tough, but they save 42 million in this trade along with some nice assets. This gives them a ton of flexibility. They could do practically whatever they want with KP, Hauser, and Mann-trade, keep, aggregate, whatever. They could decide to keep Thompson for themselves, along with the additional draft capital, and cut Brooklyn out. There's even a path to having cap space.

Atlanta gives-
Z. Risacher
O. Okongwu
T. Mann
V. Krejci
2029 1st top 1 protected
2027 1st, NOP or MIL swap rights
2031 2nd via Cleveland

Atlanta receives-
J. Brown
D. Gafford (25.3 mil TPE)
C. Martin (13.1 mil TPE)
X. Tillman

They're in a good cap situation right now and decide to go for it. The East is wide open so they bring the local kid home.

Dallas gives-
K. Thompson
D. Gafford
C. Martin
2030 2nd via PHI

Dallas gets-
J. Holiday

They give up questionable salary for questionable salary to improve the fit and double down on Defense. Keith Smith thinks Holiday has positive but not great value, and this deal reflects that.

Brooklyn gives-
Fake 2nds

Brooklyn gets-
K. Thompson, (TPE available)
2027 1st, NOP or MIL swap rights
2030 2nd via PHI
2031 2nd via Cleveland

Self explanatory

By my very quick calculation, this trade moves Atlanta over the Luxury Tax with 13 contracted players. Then add Dyson Daniels contract next season. Hawks cheap owner is not paying the tax.

I'm flabbergasted that people see Jaylen as having this kind of value. Dude is getting paid like he's top 10 in the league, when his numbers suggest he's more in the top 50-100 range. I sure as hell hope the Hawks don't do anything remotely close to a move like this.

For context, here's where Jaylen has ranked in the NBA in terms of some "catch-all" stats we have available to us for every year of his career. I threw out his rookie year, since it was pretty bad and obviously an outlier to the player he's become.

YEAR --- WS/48 --- VORP
2024-25 ---- 78 --- 121
2023-24 --- 67 --- 74
2022-23 --- 105 --- 58
2021-22 --- 62 --- 41
2020-21 --- 73 --- 38
2019-20 --- 62 --- 84
2018-19 --- 137 --- 331
2017-18 --- 103 --- 140

Guy is a good player and has shown he can be a #2 option on a championship team, which is nothing to sneeze at. But again, he's getting paid like a top 10 player in the league, which he just ain't. Giving up Zacc, Okongwu and a top 1 protected 1st for Jaylen is absolutely crazy to me.

Phunkabilly wrote:I'm flabbergasted that people see Jaylen as having this kind of value. Dude is getting paid like he's top 10 in the league, when his numbers suggest he's more in the top 50-100 range. I sure as hell hope the Hawks don't do anything remotely close to a move like this.

You don't have to be flabbergasted. I'm a Celtics fan and I'm proposing a trade that makes them unquestionably worse on the court. I don't want Brown traded at all, but financial necessities say that a move will be made that hurts. Your team would be the main beneficiary of that necessity, immediately improving on the court. I'm not saying that you're wrong and that it's definitely a good move for the Hawks, it may not be. I just see a lot of fans playing Internet GM, and when they see an idea that improves their team, they say no thanks. I find that interesting.

redslastlaugh wrote:

Cricket23 wrote:

redslastlaugh wrote:whoa, I'd say this is way too insufficient for JB. i'd pass in one second and i don't even think it's close. this is 5 nickels for a quarter.

Keep in mind, the flexibility allows the opportunity for Boston to acquire another impact player.

JB deals are like Castle + #2 overall + Harrison Barnes
Or Cody Williams, Clarkson, Sexton, #5 overall + 2-3 future #1's including unprotected Phoenix 31
Those Atlanta players are not the type of return that gets Jaylen

Hold up. Wait a minute. You think the Jazz would send that for Brown? Maybe you can get Philly to send the #3 pick and whatever players to match. But I wouldn’t touch a deal where the Jazz send #5 and more FRP’s. Not with this CBA, Browns salary, and Browns production.

I just heard Tim Bontemps say-

"You can get an absolute metric ton for Jaylen Brown"