RealGM

Premise: The top 5 picks (in some order) are Flagg, Harper, Bailey, VJ, and Tre

Nets trade 8+26+2031 Lakers 2nd for #6 overall.
Wiz trade 6 for 8+2031 Lakers 2nd+the rights to their 2026 1st (currently top 8 protected) back (via the Knicks)
Knicks trade 2026 Wiz top 8 protected 1st for 26 overall.

Why for the Wiz?
1). The Wizards have Bub Carrington at PG and will give him the year to see if he has it as a starter. Frears could easily make sense, but they are intrigued with other prospects like Maluach, Carter Bryant, or Noa Essengue at 8.
2). They do this deal to ensure they don't lose their 2026 1st (even though they are tanking hard, this deal ensures that the pick will never convey).

Why for the Nets?
1). With 4 1st rounders, they can afford to give up 1 to trade up to ensure they get Frears.

Why for the Knicks?
1). That Wiz pick will 99% not convey. With cap concerns, they'll get to pick a young contributor rookie on a cheap deal to hopefully provide some bench PT.

I don’t see any need for the Wizards to involve the Knicks. I am 100% certain the Wizards will be a bottom 6 team and that pick won’t convey.

The Brooklyn part of the deal is fine.

nate33 wrote:I don’t see any need for the Wizards to involve the Knicks. I am 100% certain the Wizards will be a bottom 6 team and that pick won’t convey.

The Brooklyn part of the deal is fine.

After this trade you’d have 8, 18, 26, 40 in this draft and already a good amount of young guys on the roster. I’d think it’s worth it to just use the pick to ensure you keep the pick. I mean let’s say you guys draft a player at #8 that is the kind of player you HOPE you get… is it unrealistic that you could be the 7th worst team in the NBA next year and drop two spots in the lottery? It just feels like a lot of risk to be holding onto for pick #26, IMO.

nate33 wrote:I don’t see any need for the Wizards to involve the Knicks. I am 100% certain the Wizards will be a bottom 6 team and that pick won’t convey.

The Brooklyn part of the deal is fine.

Not saying you should do this deal but you guys had the 2nd worst record in the league this year and ended up with the 6th pick so anything is possible.

Knicks are sucking value for a pick that will never convey, and the Nets are overpaying slightly to move up 2 spots.

JayTWill wrote:

nate33 wrote:I don’t see any need for the Wizards to involve the Knicks. I am 100% certain the Wizards will be a bottom 6 team and that pick won’t convey.

The Brooklyn part of the deal is fine.

Not saying you should do this deal but you guys had the 2nd worst record in the league this year and ended up with the 6th pick so anything is possible.

The Wizards falling to the 6th pick had a 20% chance of happening. It was disappointing, but not some sort of fluke. But the odds of the Wizards ending up with the 9th pick or lower are much worse:

If the Wizards finish 4th-worst or worse, there is no chance they will fall below 8th.
If the Wizards finish 5th-worst, there is a 0.6% chance of falling below 8th.
If the Wizards finish 6th-worst, there is a 3.9% chance of falling below 8th.

The only scenario in which I think I would sacrifice a FRP to get full control of the pick is if I believed the Wizards could possibly finish 7th-worst or better. I don't see that happening. Only Brooklyn and Utah look positioned to be as bad as the Wizards next year.

For the Knicks it’s essentially two high value 2nds for pick #26. Value is fine but it depends on who is available with that pick given the Knicks 2nd apron concerns.

Good concept, could see Nets doing some version of this directly with WAS if they can't somehow move up higher than 6th.

hugepatsfan wrote:

nate33 wrote:I don’t see any need for the Wizards to involve the Knicks. I am 100% certain the Wizards will be a bottom 6 team and that pick won’t convey.

The Brooklyn part of the deal is fine.

After this trade you’d have 8, 18, 26, 40 in this draft and already a good amount of young guys on the roster. I’d think it’s worth it to just use the pick to ensure you keep the pick.

Understood. I'd certainly be in favor of a consolidation trade after this, or moving one of those late 2025 FRP's for a late FRP in a future draft. But I'm not interested in simply giving the pick to New York for no particular reason.

hugepatsfan wrote:I mean let’s say you guys draft a player at #8 that is the kind of player you HOPE you get… is it unrealistic that you could be the 7th worst team in the NBA next year and drop two spots in the lottery? It just feels like a lot of risk to be holding onto for pick #26, IMO.

Yes. It is unrealistic. There are three types of teams: Good teams, not-so-good teams who try, and rebuilding teams who don't care about win/loss record and focus totally on player development. The Wizards are in the last group. And teams in the first two groups are going to outperform the teams in the last group.

There are only 2 other teams positioned to be in "player development mode" (tanking): Brooklyn and Utah. I expect one or two other teams to have an early injury, offseason trade or terrible start that might convince them to switch gears into a tanking mindset, but that's about it. Most other teams are going to try and compete for the playoffs. And those teams will do better than the Wizards.

nate33 wrote:

JayTWill wrote:

nate33 wrote:I don’t see any need for the Wizards to involve the Knicks. I am 100% certain the Wizards will be a bottom 6 team and that pick won’t convey.

The Brooklyn part of the deal is fine.

Not saying you should do this deal but you guys had the 2nd worst record in the league this year and ended up with the 6th pick so anything is possible.

The Wizards falling to the 6th pick had a 20% chance of happening. It was disappointing, but not some sort of fluke. But the odds of the Wizards ending up with the 9th pick or lower are much worse:

If the Wizards finish 4th-worst or worse, there is no chance they will fall below 8th.
If the Wizards finish 5th-worst, there is a 0.6% chance of falling below 8th.
If the Wizards finish 6th-worst, there is a 3.9% chance of falling below 8th.

The only scenario in which I think I would sacrifice a FRP to get full control of the pick is if I believed the Wizards could possibly finish 7th-worst or better. I don't see that happening. Only Brooklyn and Utah look positioned to be as bad as the Wizards next year.

Thank you. I didn't realize the odds of the Wizards dropping that far were that high but I could also see a few more teams joining the Wizards near the bottom of the league. You have teams like the Bucks, Suns, Pelicans, Hawks, Kings etc that could decide to move on from their star players and hit the reset button. You have teams like the Bulls who could easily go into a full tank mode after finally moving off of most of their vets last season. There is always a team like the Sixers whether due to injury or something else falls unexpectedly and the Hornets always seem to find a way to be the Hornets

Dont think Knicks get 26th for a fake first, knowing the Wizards are set to be a bottom 2 team this next season almost guaranteed, barring any surprising improvements from their rookies and Middleton not being traded AND being healthy. Maybe Knicks get 2 second rounders + Saddiq bey? if money can be worked around. Thibs would appreciate Saddiq in the rotation I believe

JayTWill wrote:You have teams like the Bucks, Suns, Pelicans, Hawks, Kings etc that could decide to move on from their star players and hit the reset button. You have teams like the Bulls who could easily go into a full tank mode after finally moving off of most of their vets last season. There is always a team like the Sixers whether due to injury or something else falls unexpectedly and the Hornets always seem to find a way to be the Hornets

The Bucks and Suns don't own the rights to their 2026 pick so you can disregard them right away.

The Hawks were a playoff team with 4 core guys under the age of 25 (Risacher, Johnson, Daniels, Okongwu). There's no chance they blow it up and trade those young talents away and commit to a full tank. I could see them trying to trade Trae and reloading around the younger crowd, but in that scenario, they would still be better than the Wizards.

I do think there's a chance that one or more West teams among POR, SAC, NOP or DAL could make the choice to tank. The Western Conference is a bloodbath, so there's logic in punting on the season and building for a future. But all of those teams have enough good players that they won't start off with the intent to tank. It'll take some sort of unexpected trade or early injury to a star to put those teams into a tanking mindset. I expect it'll will happen with one of them, or perhaps even two, but that's about it. And even if one or two of those teams enter the tanking fray, that would still only be 4 or 5 tanking teams in total.

nate33 wrote:

JayTWill wrote:You have teams like the Bucks, Suns, Pelicans, Hawks, Kings etc that could decide to move on from their star players and hit the reset button. You have teams like the Bulls who could easily go into a full tank mode after finally moving off of most of their vets last season. There is always a team like the Sixers whether due to injury or something else falls unexpectedly and the Hornets always seem to find a way to be the Hornets

The Bucks and Suns don't own the rights to their 2026 pick so you can disregard them right away.

The Hawks were a playoff team with 4 core guys under the age of 25 (Risacher, Johnson, Daniels, Okongwu). There's no chance they blow it up and trade those young talents away and commit to a full tank. I could see them trying to trade Trae and reloading around the younger crowd, but in that scenario, they would still be better than the Wizards.

I do think there's a chance that one or more West teams among POR, SAC, NOP or DAL could make the choice to tank. The Western Conference is a bloodbath, so there's logic in punting on the season and building for a future. But all of those teams have enough good players that they won't start off with the intent to tank. It'll take some sort of unexpected trade or early injury to a star to put those teams into a tanking mindset. I expect it'll will happen with one of them, or perhaps even two, but that's about it. And even if one or two of those teams enter the tanking fray, that would still only be 4 or 5 tanking teams in total.

I don't know if the Bucks or Suns can just make decisions based off of whether they control their draft pick or not. It just seems like they would be delaying the inevitable. The Suns could also make a deal involving Houston and the return of some of their picks. The Pelicans own the swap rights to the Bucks pick but they were also a bottom 4 team that may need to reset too.

As far as who else may be at the bottom of the league it is pretty unpredictable. You should know this very well. It was just 2 off-seasons ago where the Wizards were looked at as a team that would rather be mediocre around Beal than tank. They finally moved off of Beal and you were excited about adding Tyus Jones and Poole to go alongside the talents of guys like Kuzma, Deni, Gafford etc. That obviously didn't go as well as expected and your team ended up with the #2 pick.

A year later Kuzma, Deni, Gafford and Jones were gone and with the Wizards purposely tanking their way to the 2nd worst record they ended up with the 6th pick in the draft. Anything can happen. The Wizards could finish 5th or lower and fall out of the top 8 or they could finish in the back half of the lottery and still jump up to a #1 pick.

I'm not saying any of the teams involved should do the trade but based off the premise that certain guys the Wizards may value more highly are off the board at 6 sliding down 2 spots to grab a player from a secondary group they like while at the very worst picking up 3 2nd round picks and not having worry about potentially losing a first next year doesn't seem like a bad deal. Wasn't it just a couple of drafts ago where you guys paid a couple random distant 2nd round picks to move from 8 to 7?

Yeah I think this is better situated as a deal directly between Brooklyn and Washington, if Washington isn't particularly high on anyone available at #6. I do think Fears has separated himself from the pack a bit, so I'd guess Washington declines in the end.

JayTWill wrote:I don't know if the Bucks or Suns can just make decisions based off of whether they control their draft pick or not. It just seems like they would be delaying the inevitable. The Suns could also make a deal involving Houston and the return of some of their picks. The Pelicans own the swap rights to the Bucks pick but they were also a bottom 4 team that may need to reset too.

As far as who else may be at the bottom of the league it is pretty unpredictable. You should know this very well. It was just 2 off-seasons ago where the Wizards were looked at as a team that would rather be mediocre around Beal than tank. They finally moved off of Beal and you were excited about adding Tyus Jones and Poole to go alongside the talents of guys like Kuzma, Deni, Gafford etc. That obviously didn't go as well as expected and your team ended up with the #2 pick.

A year later Kuzma, Deni, Gafford and Jones were gone and with the Wizards purposely tanking their way to the 2nd worst record they ended up with the 6th pick in the draft. Anything can happen. The Wizards could finish 5th or lower and fall out of the top 8 or they could finish in the back half of the lottery and still jump up to a #1 pick.

I'm not saying any of the teams involved should do the trade but based off the premise that certain guys the Wizards may value more highly are off the board at 6 sliding down 2 spots to grab a player from a secondary group they like while at the very worst picking up 3 2nd round picks and not having worry about potentially losing a first next year doesn't seem like a bad deal. Wasn't it just a couple of drafts ago where you guys paid a couple random distant 2nd round picks to move from 8 to 7?

We are arguing in circles. I've explained my rationale and you have said nothing to refute it.

I'm open-minded to a tradedown with Brooklyn because I don't see a massive distinction between #6 and #8 in this draft. I am not interested in giving away value to the Knicks. I understand the situation perfectly, have weighed the odds, and I view the trade as unnecessary.

And 2 years ago, the Wizards may have looked like a team that would rather be mediocre around Beal, but the difference was that EVERYONE knew at the time that it was a bad idea and that the Wizards should tank instead. Finally, our stupid owner saw the light and hired a new front office. There are no similar analogies across the league today of a team with absolutely no hope for meaningful playoff contention that should clearly rebuild but won't do so out of stubbornness (except perhaps Milwaukee, who lack control of their pick).

nate33 wrote:

JayTWill wrote:I don't know if the Bucks or Suns can just make decisions based off of whether they control their draft pick or not. It just seems like they would be delaying the inevitable. The Suns could also make a deal involving Houston and the return of some of their picks. The Pelicans own the swap rights to the Bucks pick but they were also a bottom 4 team that may need to reset too.

As far as who else may be at the bottom of the league it is pretty unpredictable. You should know this very well. It was just 2 off-seasons ago where the Wizards were looked at as a team that would rather be mediocre around Beal than tank. They finally moved off of Beal and you were excited about adding Tyus Jones and Poole to go alongside the talents of guys like Kuzma, Deni, Gafford etc. That obviously didn't go as well as expected and your team ended up with the #2 pick.

A year later Kuzma, Deni, Gafford and Jones were gone and with the Wizards purposely tanking their way to the 2nd worst record they ended up with the 6th pick in the draft. Anything can happen. The Wizards could finish 5th or lower and fall out of the top 8 or they could finish in the back half of the lottery and still jump up to a #1 pick.

I'm not saying any of the teams involved should do the trade but based off the premise that certain guys the Wizards may value more highly are off the board at 6 sliding down 2 spots to grab a player from a secondary group they like while at the very worst picking up 3 2nd round picks and not having worry about potentially losing a first next year doesn't seem like a bad deal. Wasn't it just a couple of drafts ago where you guys paid a couple random distant 2nd round picks to move from 8 to 7?

We are arguing in circles. I've explained my rationale and you have said nothing to refute it.

I'm open-minded to a tradedown with Brooklyn because I don't see a massive distinction between #6 and #8 in this draft. I am not interested in giving away value to the Knicks. I understand the situation perfectly, have weighed the odds, and I view the trade as unnecessary.

And 2 years ago, the Wizards may have looked like a team that would rather be mediocre around Beal, but the difference was that EVERYONE knew at the time that it was a bad idea and that the Wizards should tank instead. Finally, our stupid owner saw the light and hired a new front office. There are no similar analogies across the league today of a team with absolutely no hope for meaningful playoff contention that should clearly rebuild but won't do so out of stubbornness (except perhaps Milwaukee, who lack control of their pick).

I pointed out the last 2 years because many things have gone quite differently than you may have expected even after the Beal trade.

As far as value in the trade I pointed out that your own Wizards team traded to 2 distant 2nds that are not even guaranteed to be good to move from 8 to 7. In this trade at least one of the 3 2nds would be guaranteed to be between 31 and 38 next year and there is a small possibility that it could be a first round pick. The value doesn't seem terribly off based on that.

You said that you would rather deal directly with the Nets. I don't know if that means just sending the 26th pick to the Wizards but I have no idea why you want to have the 8th, 18th, 26th and 40th pick in the same draft just a year after adding 4 rookies to your rotation that also had 2nd year player as a key rotational piece.

Personally I would rather have the security of knowing I will have control of my pick and worse case scenario getting an early second rounder and another 2nd than adding another late 1st rounder in a draft where I already have 2 other 1st round picks and another decent 2nd.

As a Knicks' fan i'd rather hold onto the small chance that the Wizards pick conveys than to essentially swap a high 2nd and another 2nd just to move into the back end of the first unless there is someone I desperately want there. I know that every time the protected Wizards pick gets mentioned you are quick to point out is unlikely to convey and has little value but why as a Wizards fan would you value another late 1st in this draft more?

JayTWill wrote:

nate33 wrote:

JayTWill wrote:I don't know if the Bucks or Suns can just make decisions based off of whether they control their draft pick or not. It just seems like they would be delaying the inevitable. The Suns could also make a deal involving Houston and the return of some of their picks. The Pelicans own the swap rights to the Bucks pick but they were also a bottom 4 team that may need to reset too.

As far as who else may be at the bottom of the league it is pretty unpredictable. You should know this very well. It was just 2 off-seasons ago where the Wizards were looked at as a team that would rather be mediocre around Beal than tank. They finally moved off of Beal and you were excited about adding Tyus Jones and Poole to go alongside the talents of guys like Kuzma, Deni, Gafford etc. That obviously didn't go as well as expected and your team ended up with the #2 pick.

A year later Kuzma, Deni, Gafford and Jones were gone and with the Wizards purposely tanking their way to the 2nd worst record they ended up with the 6th pick in the draft. Anything can happen. The Wizards could finish 5th or lower and fall out of the top 8 or they could finish in the back half of the lottery and still jump up to a #1 pick.

I'm not saying any of the teams involved should do the trade but based off the premise that certain guys the Wizards may value more highly are off the board at 6 sliding down 2 spots to grab a player from a secondary group they like while at the very worst picking up 3 2nd round picks and not having worry about potentially losing a first next year doesn't seem like a bad deal. Wasn't it just a couple of drafts ago where you guys paid a couple random distant 2nd round picks to move from 8 to 7?

We are arguing in circles. I've explained my rationale and you have said nothing to refute it.

I'm open-minded to a tradedown with Brooklyn because I don't see a massive distinction between #6 and #8 in this draft. I am not interested in giving away value to the Knicks. I understand the situation perfectly, have weighed the odds, and I view the trade as unnecessary.

And 2 years ago, the Wizards may have looked like a team that would rather be mediocre around Beal, but the difference was that EVERYONE knew at the time that it was a bad idea and that the Wizards should tank instead. Finally, our stupid owner saw the light and hired a new front office. There are no similar analogies across the league today of a team with absolutely no hope for meaningful playoff contention that should clearly rebuild but won't do so out of stubbornness (except perhaps Milwaukee, who lack control of their pick).

I pointed out the last 2 years because many things have gone quite differently than you may have expected even after the Beal trade.

As far as value in the trade I pointed out that your own Wizards team traded to 2 distant 2nds that are not even guaranteed to be good to move from 8 to 7. In this trade at least one of the 3 2nds would be guaranteed to be between 31 and 38 next year and there is a small possibility that it could be a first round pick. The value doesn't seem terribly off based on that.

You said that you would rather deal directly with the Nets. I don't know if that means just sending the 26th pick to the Wizards but I have no idea why you want to have the 8th, 18th, 26th and 40th pick in the same draft just a year after adding 4 rookies to your rotation that also had 2nd year player as a key rotational piece.

Personally I would rather have the security of knowing I will have control of my pick and worse case scenario getting an early second rounder and another 2nd than adding another late 1st rounder in a draft where I already have 2 other 1st round picks and another decent 2nd.

As a Knicks' fan i'd rather hold onto the small chance that the Wizards pick conveys than to essentially swap a high 2nd and another 2nd just to move into the back end of the first unless there is someone I desperately want there. I know that every time the protected Wizards pick gets mentioned you are quick to point out is unlikely to convey and has little value but why as a Wizards fan would you value another late 1st in this draft more?

I'd certainly be in favor of a consolidation trade after this, or moving one of those late 2025 FRP's for a late FRP in a future draft. But I'm not interested in simply giving the pick to New York for no particular reason.

nate33 wrote:

JayTWill wrote:

nate33 wrote:We are arguing in circles. I've explained my rationale and you have said nothing to refute it.

I'm open-minded to a tradedown with Brooklyn because I don't see a massive distinction between #6 and #8 in this draft. I am not interested in giving away value to the Knicks. I understand the situation perfectly, have weighed the odds, and I view the trade as unnecessary.

And 2 years ago, the Wizards may have looked like a team that would rather be mediocre around Beal, but the difference was that EVERYONE knew at the time that it was a bad idea and that the Wizards should tank instead. Finally, our stupid owner saw the light and hired a new front office. There are no similar analogies across the league today of a team with absolutely no hope for meaningful playoff contention that should clearly rebuild but won't do so out of stubbornness (except perhaps Milwaukee, who lack control of their pick).

I pointed out the last 2 years because many things have gone quite differently than you may have expected even after the Beal trade.

As far as value in the trade I pointed out that your own Wizards team traded to 2 distant 2nds that are not even guaranteed to be good to move from 8 to 7. In this trade at least one of the 3 2nds would be guaranteed to be between 31 and 38 next year and there is a small possibility that it could be a first round pick. The value doesn't seem terribly off based on that.

You said that you would rather deal directly with the Nets. I don't know if that means just sending the 26th pick to the Wizards but I have no idea why you want to have the 8th, 18th, 26th and 40th pick in the same draft just a year after adding 4 rookies to your rotation that also had 2nd year player as a key rotational piece.

Personally I would rather have the security of knowing I will have control of my pick and worse case scenario getting an early second rounder and another 2nd than adding another late 1st rounder in a draft where I already have 2 other 1st round picks and another decent 2nd.

As a Knicks' fan i'd rather hold onto the small chance that the Wizards pick conveys than to essentially swap a high 2nd and another 2nd just to move into the back end of the first unless there is someone I desperately want there. I know that every time the protected Wizards pick gets mentioned you are quick to point out is unlikely to convey and has little value but why as a Wizards fan would you value another late 1st in this draft more?

I'd certainly be in favor of a consolidation trade after this, or moving one of those late 2025 FRP's for a late FRP in a future draft. But I'm not interested in simply giving the pick to New York for no particular reason.

Let's say that you can't consolidate would you rather have another late 1st in this draft or the 2026 protected Wizards pick?

JayTWill wrote:

nate33 wrote:

JayTWill wrote:
I pointed out the last 2 years because many things have gone quite differently than you may have expected even after the Beal trade.

As far as value in the trade I pointed out that your own Wizards team traded to 2 distant 2nds that are not even guaranteed to be good to move from 8 to 7. In this trade at least one of the 3 2nds would be guaranteed to be between 31 and 38 next year and there is a small possibility that it could be a first round pick. The value doesn't seem terribly off based on that.

You said that you would rather deal directly with the Nets. I don't know if that means just sending the 26th pick to the Wizards but I have no idea why you want to have the 8th, 18th, 26th and 40th pick in the same draft just a year after adding 4 rookies to your rotation that also had 2nd year player as a key rotational piece.

Personally I would rather have the security of knowing I will have control of my pick and worse case scenario getting an early second rounder and another 2nd than adding another late 1st rounder in a draft where I already have 2 other 1st round picks and another decent 2nd.

As a Knicks' fan i'd rather hold onto the small chance that the Wizards pick conveys than to essentially swap a high 2nd and another 2nd just to move into the back end of the first unless there is someone I desperately want there. I know that every time the protected Wizards pick gets mentioned you are quick to point out is unlikely to convey and has little value but why as a Wizards fan would you value another late 1st in this draft more?

I'd certainly be in favor of a consolidation trade after this, or moving one of those late 2025 FRP's for a late FRP in a future draft. But I'm not interested in simply giving the pick to New York for no particular reason.

Let's say that you can't consolidate would you rather have another late 1st in this draft or the 2026 protected Wizards pick?

I'd probably still keep the pick. But I don't see the point of the hypothetical. Why couldn't the Wizards consolidate or trade for a future pick?

nate33 wrote:I don’t see any need for the Wizards to involve the Knicks. I am 100% certain the Wizards will be a bottom 6 team and that pick won’t convey.

The Brooklyn part of the deal is fine.

Disagree Nate, I would 100% make this deal.
At worst/lowest value, we would be dealing #26 in 2025 for ~#35 in 2026, ~#40 in 2027, and ~#50 in 2031 (Lakers). Not THAT Bad.
At best, we would be dealing #26 in 2025 for #9 in 2026 and ~#40 in 2031 (Lakers).

That is worth it to me.