When Shams says "I think this offseason might be the most craziest ever."... What would that mean for you?

[NYG]

"This is the most I think anticipation team executives have had over an offseason...I think this offseason might be the most craziest ever."
-Shams

What would need to happen for this to be the "most craziest ever" off-season?

What do you think happens? Who gets aggressive? Which teams are looking to save money? Who is outright selling? Which stars ask out?

[NYG]

I posted this old thread in the General Thoughts thread

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2282383&hilit=motivates

I think one of the most important things we need to be mindful of when proposing a trade is what motivates a trade? Why even bother making a trade versus standing pat? I decided to look over the trades made during the 2022-23 season and the 2022 off-season and analyze the "Why?" for each team.

After researching this, it seems that there's 7 motivations to making a trade in real life:

1. Move Up/Down in the NBA Draft: This is a trade where only picks are involved. The motivation for the team moving up is to get a specific player on their draft board versus waiting to see if he falls. The motivation for the team moving down is they are indifferent about the draft board there and prefer the value over the specific player they could draft there. This simply aligns when one team wants a specific player that they think won't be there when they pick and another team with an earlier pick doesn't care for the draft board.

2. Star requested a trade: This really seems to be the only time a really good player gets traded. You don't trade high level talent in the NBA for picks/young players unless it's requested or you are blatantly rebuilding. Looking over real life trades, it appears teams are either blatantly trying to contend or blatantly trying to rebuild. The only reason a team not planning to blatantly rebuild trades a really good player is if it's requested.

3. Contending team trying to get better: This is simple. You're a good team, but you want to get better so as a result of the trade you have become a more talented team even if you had to sacrifice an undeveloped young player with a high ceiling or draft picks to do so. Contending doesn't mean in regards to how you're expected to finish, but more-so if you are trying to contend. For example, I don't I have the Pistons or Magic as competitive, but I have them as joining this group and leave the following group this off-season.

4. Rebuilding team trying to add assets: This is also simple. You're a bad team so you trade your good players for picks and young players. The one thing that surprised me is looking over the trades, there's very clearly rebuilding teams and contending teams. There's no gray area or "hybrid" approach. The Raptors will keep OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam (unless they request a trade / see above) or trade both. There isn't really any team that hasn't clearly established which they are in terms of trade patterns.

5. Get value from a fill-in involved in a previous trade: This is basically where you made a trade that had cap filler attached to what you really wanted. Instead of waiving the filler, you get something for the filler from another team in a follow-up trade.

6. Save money: This can be one of two reasons most likely. Either you are close to or above the tax and want to reduce the payroll or you have a specific player you want in free agency and you need to create the cap space. It seems those are the only real motivations for saving money in a trade.

7. Fill a need: This is different than trying to get better. This is more trying to get neutral from a talent perspective, but you give up talent where you have more of it for talent where you have less of it to balance your depth. The only neutral trades seem motivated by using depth to fill a need with a team that can do the same.

Literally these are the only 7 motivations I have as being the driving force behind a team deciding to make a trade. There's no other reason a team makes a trade so be mindful of that moving forward.

So I have players requesting a trade, teams that are selling and teams looking to save money being drivers of the action since, inherently, everyone else is trying to buy the talent these teams are giving up.

2. Star requested a trade
-If this is the craziest off-season ever, it means Giannis requested a trade. KD is an obvious other guy. There's enough grumblings that I could see Sabonis asking out. Trae Young actually wouldn't shock me or being quietly moved later in the off-season like Towns was last year. LaMelo? Ja? Zion can't be requesting trades right now. I could see Booker ask out if the Suns botch the KD trade. So I guess if 3 of 7 of Giannis, KD, Trae, LaMelo, Ja, Sabonis and Booker ask out, it could be pretty crazy.

4. Rebuilding team trying to add assets
-I think unless the Bucks trade Giannis, you're looking at Nets, Pelicans, Jazz and Wizards so basically... Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, C.J. McCollum, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins

6. Save money
-I don't think anyone is shooting for cap space so you're looking at teams in need of tax/apron space: Celtics, Cavaliers, Pacers, T'Wolves, Magic, 76ers and Suns strike me as the teams that could be motivated enough to make a trade built around financial relief

Celtics couldn't totally sell off everything around Tatum to retool around him moving forward including Jaylen Brown and Derrick White especially if they can offload Jrue in the process

Cavaliers probably don't do anything too vital to their core to save money

Pacers probably dump Toppin unfortunately to get there

Let me put it this way about Minnesota... if they downgrade strictly for financially driven reasons, that's a shame. They should be just trying to keep the team in tact for another run. Probably lose NAW though either way.

Magic are interesting, I could see them finally being willing to make moves that help them both financially and on the court.

76ers are kind of stuck, they would be trade their depth off if they dumped salary cause no one is taking on Embiid or George as value right now.

Suns could be interesting. I think they completely commit to paying and winning now if it goes that way, but if KD and Booker ask out then I could see them trying to recoup as many assets as possible including cap savings.

[LarsV8]

Teams are starting to realize the implications of the new CBA, most fans still haven't quite figured it out.

All those C and D tier "stars" who make crazy money, but only have good, not great impact, their value is going to absolutely tank, specifically older guys who make it too their 2nd max. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a number of these guys end up in rumors.
- Butler
- Durant
- OG
- Brown
- Kawhi
- Bam
- KAT
- Lauri
- Herro
- Lavine
- Murray
- Ingram
- Ja
- Ball
- Fox

The new hotness is going to be quiet, dirty work guys, with good impact on reasonable salaries. Also rookie contract guys, young players in general, shorter contracts, non guaranteed, team options. Perhaps weaponizing RFA a bit more. More value in draft picks.

[NYG]

Teams are starting to realize the implications of the new CBA, most fans still haven't quite figured it out.

All those C and D tier "stars" who make crazy money, but only have good, not great impact, their value is going to absolutely tank, specifically older guys who make it too their 2nd max. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a number of these guys end up in rumors.
- Butler
- Durant
- OG
- Brown
- Kawhi
- Bam
- KAT
- Lauri
- Herro
- Lavine
- Murray
- Ingram
- Ja
- Ball
- Fox

The new hotness is going to be quiet, dirty work guys, with good impact on reasonable salaries. Also rookie contract guys, young players in general, shorter contracts, non guaranteed, team options. Perhaps weaponizing RFA a bit more. More value in draft picks.

Yeah it has to be picks because most teams aren't trading a prospect like that if they have one already.

[TheNetsFan]

I think it’s going to be crazy due to the volume, not necessarily the movement of elite players. I'm in agreement with Lars. I believe a very large percentage will be financially/apron restriction motivated. You'll see some expensive, non-elite stars moved for a lot less than they would have previously. Given only one team has cap space, teams looking to shed salary, are probably going to have to pay a hefty price or shed salary in relatively small chunks through a series of transactions.

Additionally, the new trend is away from big 3s and specialists and towards 2-way versatile players. Coaches and teams target and isolate defensive liabilities. They ignore offensive liabilities, leaving them wide open to help elsewhere. In order to be good across the board, teams will shift towards loading up on guys in the 10-15% of the cap range, rather than splurging for a 25+% third star.

[SkyHook]

Teams are starting to realize the implications of the new CBA, most fans still haven't quite figured it out.

All those C and D tier "stars" who make crazy money, but only have good, not great impact, their value is going to absolutely tank, specifically older guys who make it too their 2nd max. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a number of these guys end up in rumors.
- Butler
- Durant
- OG
- Brown
- Kawhi
- Bam
- KAT
- Lauri
- Herro
- Lavine
- Murray
- Ingram
- Ja
- Ball
- Fox

The new hotness is going to be quiet, dirty work guys, with good impact on reasonable salaries. Also rookie contract guys, young players in general, shorter contracts, non guaranteed, team options. Perhaps weaponizing RFA a bit more. More value in draft picks.

And yet not a single Rocket was mentioned.

[Mavrelous]

Teams are starting to realize the implications of the new CBA, most fans still haven't quite figured it out.

All those C and D tier "stars" who make crazy money, but only have good, not great impact, their value is going to absolutely tank, specifically older guys who make it too their 2nd max. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a number of these guys end up in rumors.
- Butler
- Durant
- OG
- Brown
- Kawhi
- Bam
- KAT
- Lauri
- Herro
- Lavine
- Murray
- Ingram
- Ja
- Ball
- Fox

The new hotness is going to be quiet, dirty work guys, with good impact on reasonable salaries. Also rookie contract guys, young players in general, shorter contracts, non guaranteed, team options. Perhaps weaponizing RFA a bit more. More value in draft picks.

And yet not a single Rocket was mentioned.

Well to be fair, Green isn't a star and doesn't have good impact, he just makes crazy money, so he doesn't belong in this list...

[giberish]

I actually think that means that some people will be disappointed/underwhelmed. CBA and financial limitations could reduce the number of deals that get made. Granted some deals will go down and they could end up large due to needing a bunch of side deals for logistics. But IMO the need for those logistics based side parts will limit the number of deals that go down.

[daoneandonly]

WOuld be interesting to see if the loser of the finals make any type of trades they feel would put them over. Both are extremely run franchises, so it wouldnt be anything stupid or too short sighted (ala Nico)

[SkyHook]

Teams are starting to realize the implications of the new CBA, most fans still haven't quite figured it out.

All those C and D tier "stars" who make crazy money, but only have good, not great impact, their value is going to absolutely tank, specifically older guys who make it too their 2nd max. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a number of these guys end up in rumors.
- Butler
- Durant
- OG
- Brown
- Kawhi
- Bam
- KAT
- Lauri
- Herro
- Lavine
- Murray
- Ingram
- Ja
- Ball
- Fox

The new hotness is going to be quiet, dirty work guys, with good impact on reasonable salaries. Also rookie contract guys, young players in general, shorter contracts, non guaranteed, team options. Perhaps weaponizing RFA a bit more. More value in draft picks.

And yet not a single Rocket was mentioned.

Well to be fair, Green isn't a star and doesn't have good impact, he just makes crazy money, so he doesn't belong in this list...

Not just Green, though given the "star" level money he seems to fit the assertion. Given the context, Van Vleet and Sengun would qualify as "C and D tier "stars" who make crazy money". Both make more than Herro, far more in FVV's case.

[shrink]

I think that the lack of cap space is going to make TRADES the standard method for teams to do transactions. Teams will be especially motivated to trade, with 13-14 teams in the west trying to get better, and maybe more eastern conference teams choosing to go for it while BOS is missing Tatum. I love IND, but I don’t think they scare off any possible contenders.

Without cap space to serve as the grease for trades, and the effects of the apron becoming more apparent, GMs are going to have to work together to get things done. I think we are going to see more and more complicated deals, with up to six teams in a single deal! That’s crazy! I also expect several of these complicated deals, including the movement of some very big names to their preferred destinations.

[Pattycakes]

I don’t listen to these armchairs anymore. Just another pisspoor take from another pisspoor analyst or whatever the hell shams would be considered. A Twitter poster who happens to have a couple agents cell numbers?

[Texas Chuck]

So Money has driven trades for years now. That's not new. Its more restrictive now, but the concept has existed.

But I think when you have an Indiana in the Finals(and being competitive at least for now), you are going to have teams saying why not us? So I think you are going to see a lot of teams trying to fill holes, add difference makers, and be really aggressive.

Fans get caught up in timelines and windows. GM's by their nature have to think short term(there are exceptions of course). But I also think they see opportunity. Especially in the East. I think only a handful of teams over there should think we have no chance at all, and even one or two of those is going to see themselves differently or just want to be more competitive(Chicago, Charlotte).

[louc1970]

"This is the most I think anticipation team executives have had over an offseason...I think this offseason might be the most craziest ever."
-Shams

What would need to happen for this to be the "most craziest ever" off-season?

What do you think happens? Who gets aggressive? Which teams are looking to save money? Who is outright selling? Which stars ask out?

First it means as a writer he failed his Writing 102 class - “most craziest”. He is more smarter than me is.

Lots of trades with some big names attached.

[SkyHook]

So Money has driven trades for years now. That's not new. Its more restrictive now, but the concept has existed.

But I think when you have an Indiana in the Finals(and being competitive at least for now), you are going to have teams saying why not us? So I think you are going to see a lot of teams trying to fill holes, add difference makers, and be really aggressive.

Fans get caught up in timelines and windows. GM's by their nature have to think short term(there are exceptions of course). But I also think they see opportunity. Especially in the East. I think only a handful of teams over there should think we have no chance at all, and even one or two of those is going to see themselves differently or just want to be more competitive(Chicago, Charlotte).

I agree with all of this (though we may look back at today and say that the Thunder were competitive at least for now). Fans get caught up in timelines — windows do unexpectedly slam shut — but GMs do too. It's why Presti's inactivity these past two deadlines has been somewhat baffling, genius that he is. The Thunder might be the defending champs in these playoffs had he felt more urgency.

[LarsV8]

[quote="SkyHook"][quote="Mavrelous"][quote="SkyHook"]

And yet not a single Rocket was mentioned. [/quote]

Well to be fair, Green isn't a star and doesn't have good impact, he just makes crazy money, so he doesn't belong in this list...[/quote]

Not just Green, though given the "star" level money he seems to fit the assertion. Given the context, Van Vleet and Sengun would qualify as "C and D tier "stars" who make crazy money". Both make more than Herro, far more in FVV's case.[/quote]

FVVs contract is over, so i don't predict it will be an ongoing issue

Good point on Herro, I had him on my mind as 37m, but he is cheaper than that. Some of these are predictive, ie guys that will likely be getting new higher deals or extensions shortly, like Fox and Herro.

For the rest, when I pulled up the list, i filtered on guys making over 35m, and generally exclude all young guys.

[SkyHook]

Well to be fair, Green isn't a star and doesn't have good impact, he just makes crazy money, so he doesn't belong in this list...

Not just Green, though given the "star" level money he seems to fit the assertion. Given the context, Van Vleet and Sengun would qualify as "C and D tier "stars" who make crazy money". Both make more than Herro, far more in FVV's case.

FVVs contract is over, so i don't predict it will be an ongoing issue

Good point on Herro, I had him on my mind as 37m, but he is cheaper than that. Some of these are predictive, ie guys that will likely be getting new higher deals or extensions shortly, like Fox and Herro.

For the rest, when I pulled up the list, i filtered on guys making over 35m, and generally exclude all young guys.

I took your main point as essentially "you've got to be careful with overpaying a player on their second contract", ie. anyone beyond their first four years. To me, I get worried when they're hitting 20% of the cap; ~$31MM this year. Miss at that level and the consequences are more severe.

[Netaman]

I'm pretty sure Lars is mostly in the right direction, though I see a bit of a different list of players. The 2nd apron is so penalizing now, so the first domino clearly seems to be a rush for the exits from big money spenders who are up there already, likely with a premium needed to get themselves out of jail by taking back less salary.

Remember once cap space starts getting used in "buying" trades and FA, moving salary and saving $ gets harder, not easier. So teams who want to cut money have much more incentive to act aggressively/quickly as compared to a team like Milwaukee/Giannis where they can wait out their price since they don't want to have to trade him. And this FA class is weak so very few teams have planned themselves into having money to spend. Everyone other than brooklyn is 15m cap room or less.

Celtics/Suns/Cavs are most clearly in that group so I expect to see this list in motion most urgently, especially Boston and Phoenix, probably for lower returns than some might expect:

KD
Jrue
KP
Allen
Hauser

it's possible Brown and Garland also end up in play just because they have enough value to bring back better returns while saving money. If they are contemplating moving players on that level, it is in their interest to try to act aggressively before Giannis is fully on market whether that delays until later this summer or in-season.

then you have the secondary list of players from teams close to 2nd apron, knicks, magic, nuggets, minny who i dont expect to be urgently "selling" but will likely be looking to make moves. Players like Trae are probably out there. Kuminga is probably out there via S&T from GS since signing him would take them close to 2nd apron. Philly is going to have to make some edits to their cap structure to have the money to bring back who they want.

and now with the pacers doing what they are doing and showing a path to contention for pretty much any team/market if they nail a few draft picks/non super star trades, plus the lottery showing the fruitlessness of tanking, i think we are going to see fewer teams outwardly tank and willing to take on bad $. some (like utah) sound like they may even be reversing course to try to start adding good players.

so first domino i expect is teams in 2nd apron making moves at or ahead of the draft to move big money to get out of the 2nd apron. depending on the move assets could be attached or not, likely to 3rd team facilitators, or returns weaker than expected or not.

then the draft will happen and realign teams' plans based on who they are able to get.

and giannis will likely loom over both of those things if he asks out, though i kind of think he will go back to MIL now with the east appearing as weak as it is. he can always ask for a trade at the deadline if things aren't going well.

[shrink]

So Money has driven trades for years now. That's not new.

He really has. I enjoyed your use of capitalization to land the joke!

[LarsV8]

Not just Green, though given the "star" level money he seems to fit the assertion. Given the context, Van Vleet and Sengun would qualify as "C and D tier "stars" who make crazy money". Both make more than Herro, far more in FVV's case.

FVVs contract is over, so i don't predict it will be an ongoing issue

Good point on Herro, I had him on my mind as 37m, but he is cheaper than that. Some of these are predictive, ie guys that will likely be getting new higher deals or extensions shortly, like Fox and Herro.

For the rest, when I pulled up the list, i filtered on guys making over 35m, and generally exclude all young guys.

I took your main point as essentially "you've got to be careful with overpaying a player on their second contract", ie. anyone beyond their first four years. To me, I get worried when they're hitting 20% of the cap; ~$31MM this year. Miss at that level and the consequences are more severe.

Second max, not second contract.