I posted this old thread in the General Thoughts thread
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2282383&hilit=motivatesI think one of the most important things we need to be mindful of when proposing a trade is what motivates a trade? Why even bother making a trade versus standing pat? I decided to look over the trades made during the 2022-23 season and the 2022 off-season and analyze the "Why?" for each team.
After researching this, it seems that there's 7 motivations to making a trade in real life:
1. Move Up/Down in the NBA Draft: This is a trade where only picks are involved. The motivation for the team moving up is to get a specific player on their draft board versus waiting to see if he falls. The motivation for the team moving down is they are indifferent about the draft board there and prefer the value over the specific player they could draft there. This simply aligns when one team wants a specific player that they think won't be there when they pick and another team with an earlier pick doesn't care for the draft board.
2. Star requested a trade: This really seems to be the only time a really good player gets traded. You don't trade high level talent in the NBA for picks/young players unless it's requested or you are blatantly rebuilding. Looking over real life trades, it appears teams are either blatantly trying to contend or blatantly trying to rebuild. The only reason a team not planning to blatantly rebuild trades a really good player is if it's requested.
3. Contending team trying to get better: This is simple. You're a good team, but you want to get better so as a result of the trade you have become a more talented team even if you had to sacrifice an undeveloped young player with a high ceiling or draft picks to do so. Contending doesn't mean in regards to how you're expected to finish, but more-so if you are trying to contend. For example, I don't I have the Pistons or Magic as competitive, but I have them as joining this group and leave the following group this off-season.
4. Rebuilding team trying to add assets: This is also simple. You're a bad team so you trade your good players for picks and young players. The one thing that surprised me is looking over the trades, there's very clearly rebuilding teams and contending teams. There's no gray area or "hybrid" approach. The Raptors will keep OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam (unless they request a trade / see above) or trade both. There isn't really any team that hasn't clearly established which they are in terms of trade patterns.
5. Get value from a fill-in involved in a previous trade: This is basically where you made a trade that had cap filler attached to what you really wanted. Instead of waiving the filler, you get something for the filler from another team in a follow-up trade.
6. Save money: This can be one of two reasons most likely. Either you are close to or above the tax and want to reduce the payroll or you have a specific player you want in free agency and you need to create the cap space. It seems those are the only real motivations for saving money in a trade.
7. Fill a need: This is different than trying to get better. This is more trying to get neutral from a talent perspective, but you give up talent where you have more of it for talent where you have less of it to balance your depth. The only neutral trades seem motivated by using depth to fill a need with a team that can do the same.
Literally these are the only 7 motivations I have as being the driving force behind a team deciding to make a trade. There's no other reason a team makes a trade so be mindful of that moving forward.
So I have players requesting a trade, teams that are selling and teams looking to save money being drivers of the action since, inherently, everyone else is trying to buy the talent these teams are giving up.
2. Star requested a trade
-If this is the craziest off-season ever, it means Giannis requested a trade. KD is an obvious other guy. There's enough grumblings that I could see Sabonis asking out. Trae Young actually wouldn't shock me or being quietly moved later in the off-season like Towns was last year. LaMelo? Ja? Zion can't be requesting trades right now. I could see Booker ask out if the Suns botch the KD trade. So I guess if 3 of 7 of Giannis, KD, Trae, LaMelo, Ja, Sabonis and Booker ask out, it could be pretty crazy.
4. Rebuilding team trying to add assets
-I think unless the Bucks trade Giannis, you're looking at Nets, Pelicans, Jazz and Wizards so basically... Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, C.J. McCollum, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins
6. Save money
-I don't think anyone is shooting for cap space so you're looking at teams in need of tax/apron space: Celtics, Cavaliers, Pacers, T'Wolves, Magic, 76ers and Suns strike me as the teams that could be motivated enough to make a trade built around financial relief
Celtics couldn't totally sell off everything around Tatum to retool around him moving forward including Jaylen Brown and Derrick White especially if they can offload Jrue in the process
Cavaliers probably don't do anything too vital to their core to save money
Pacers probably dump Toppin unfortunately to get there
Let me put it this way about Minnesota... if they downgrade strictly for financially driven reasons, that's a shame. They should be just trying to keep the team in tact for another run. Probably lose NAW though either way.
Magic are interesting, I could see them finally being willing to make moves that help them both financially and on the court.
76ers are kind of stuck, they would be trade their depth off if they dumped salary cause no one is taking on Embiid or George as value right now.
Suns could be interesting. I think they completely commit to paying and winning now if it goes that way, but if KD and Booker ask out then I could see them trying to recoup as many assets as possible including cap savings.
