ReggiesKnicks wrote:JRoy wrote:Hate it for POR.
That team is a first round out for a couple years and then will need to rebuild the right way.
What's the right way to rebuild? Portland already picked consecutive years in the high-lottery and got two highly covered prospects in Scoot/Sharpe, then traded for Deni Avdija.
They now pick #11. Is the expectation to pick Top 5 next year in the lottery?
Good questions. I, for one, don't believe in a right or wrong way to rebuild. What I judge are the quality of players on the roster, the opportunities to improve, and the opportunity costs of any path forward. When the Blazers still had Lillard, they chose to rebuild, first by tanking with a solid roster still in place, then by tearing that roster down. I disagreed with the direction but understood it. I do not generally support tearing down a good team, even one that looks like it will never win a championship, to chase draft dreams. But I could see what they were doing, and it had a certain logic. Well, whether it is just luck or great foresight, they were right and I was wrong: Lillard is rapidly breaking down (even before the Achilles tear) and Portland got as much as could probably be expected for him.
Now, the Blazers are choosing to hitch their wagons to the current mix of foundational youth and (relative) veterans. I think they should still be rebuilding, maximizing their chances at top draft picks and prioritizing roster and salary flexibility -- not because that's a superior path per se, but because it's the best opportunity given the cards they have to play (i.e., because this roster isn't and won't be a good team). We'll see if Cronin and co. know better than I do again.
The most pessimistic among us do have to grapple with two facts: (1) Portland management, whether we like it or not, just is signaling that it is exiting the rebuild stage and wants to refine the roster around its "core" to compete now, and (2) the team did show growth last year, which flies in the face of our most dire predictions. So when I answer trade threads, I typically come at it from two different POVs: what I think, and what I think Portland management wants to do.
Here's where I'm at with my Blazers: no matter how good an ensemble cast they cobble together, the Blazers lack the top-end talent needed to contend, and it appears unlikely that it will come from within the current roster. You are correct that they entered the rebuild in earnest (stealthy though it was with Lillard still in the fold), and I will even submit that they drafted well getting those two coveted prospects. But they were misses. It happens. You keep trying until you hit in the draft, free agency, or trade. Some will argue that they did hit on Deni and Camara. These are two very good players, neither of whom will win a heckin' thing without first being attached to a legit star or stars.
Or, some will also argue -- and this seems to be a growing mainstream media consensus -- that the Blazers
did do it right and are being rewarded with their upward trajectory. I don't buy it. Judging a 38-win season (or any season) requires context. Do you have a budding superstar who just needs help? Do you have a cast of veterans clinging to relevance but aging out of credibility? Do you, like the Blazers, have some decent pieces who made a charmed run against the easiest competition possible over two months of an otherwise putrid season? Well, you can tell where I land on evaluating Portland's 2024-2025.
I do not celebrate a 38-win season, led primarily by just-OK youth, let alone follow it up by trading a lot for a 29-year-old with no history of leading anybody anywhere. I like Sabonis, but he's not a franchise cornerstone. He's a final piece to the puzzle type of guy, like the Knicks (wisely or not) pushing their chips in for Bridges and Towns, or the Warriors reaching for Butler. I am confident Sabonis will be a nice addition to a contender at some point, but it's not likely to be in Portland.
There is a third argument some may make, which is that Portland is poised to land a major star and will be set for contention precisely because of the work already done to assemble such an appealing supporting cast. If this occurs, I will be proven wrong, and I will give all due credit to Portland's wily management. But I have my doubts about the Blazers trading for a franchise player and about this supporting cast being good enough. Portland is more than one big move, or even one big move and tinkering around the edges, from contention.
TBH, there is a lot of anticipatory anxiety going on in our responses to Portland's path. We expect Cronin to hand over massive, unearned extensions to Simons and Ayton, locking Portland into an uninspiring core that will go only as far as the backcourt grows (and many of us remain skeptical about Scoot and Shaedon).
I'll probably get some replies to this post that sneer at my attitude or dismiss my opinions about certain Blazers. That's fine. I can be wrong, and I would love it if I am because that means the Blazers are going to be awesome. And, in that case, maybe Sabonis really would be a fit for a team on the rise. I just doubt it. So, like JRoy, my preference is to see the Blazers throw their catch back and go fishing again.
That was a lot more than you asked, but I felt like the board is not getting the full perspective of those of us who oppose "win-now" moves, even as Portland management seems to want to lean that way. So, there are some thoughts, for whatever they are worth. Despite what some will attest, I am open to having my mind changed, especially by meaningful growth from Scoot and Shaedon.