Out of Left Field - Washington enters the Durant business

[R-DAWG]

Trade #1
PHX: Jeremi Grant, Marcus Smart, Pick #18, Swap Rights relinquished in 2028 and 2030 (there are a whole series of swaps off of the swaps but Washington owns the most favorable of PHX/WAS which will return to PHX), 5 2nd rd picks
WAS: Kevin Durant
POR: Khris Middelton

Portland gets off the last 2 years of Grant's contract
Pheonix gets control of some of their future draft assets while adding a starter level player and a $21MM expiring contract.

Smart/Beal/Booker/Grant/Richards
Allen/O'Neale/Dunn
Picks #18 and #29 in this years draft which I assume will be floated with Smart's expiring salary for an upgrade. It's not great, but it could be the only opportunity for PHX to gain control of 2 of their future picks.

Trade #2
SAS: Jordan Poole, AJ Johnson, Anthony Gil, 2026 1st rd pick (lessor of OKC/LAC/HOU)
WAS: DeArron Fox

San Antonio is in a tough spot with Fox if they draft Dylan Harper as Fox doesn't fit in with Harper/Castle plus he's entering the last year of his contract. While Poole has his flaws, he's a much better fit on the Spurs roster and has 2 years of team control left. Also, San Antonio is putting Fox in a position to earn a long term contract, which is important since he forced his way to SAS last year but circumstances changed with lottery luck. The 2026 1st the Spurs get back here replaces the 2027 1st they gave up in the Fox trade and while there is some sunk cost here (two protected 1sts that become 2nds and the MIN 1st) it's barley noticeable given the stockpile of assets the Spurs have.

So what does this all mean for Washington? Washington has been committed to slowly building through the draft, but the lottery has not been kind to them over the past 3 years. The team really hasn't been relevant since 2021. And the East is in a transition period right now - Boston is without Tatum next year and has roster uncertainty going forward. Milwaukee, Miami and Philadelphia look like teams that are trending downward after being the contenders the last handful of years. And while Indiana and New York look solid, they don't scare you and Orlando and Detroit are still on the come up. These trades give Washington the opportunity to (a) land a megastar who is from the DC area and still a top 15 player in the league (b) pair him with an in his prime point guard who was recently an all-star and (c) not take away from the long term vision for the team.

I assume after this trade Washington will give both Durant and Fox their maximum extensions. Durant has 1-3 years left of being a top-15 player, which co-insides with what should be Fox's prime years. This becomes a team that should be a top-6 seed in the East with the possibility of having the best player on the court in any playoff series. Again with all due respect to Indiana - who very well could win the championship tonight - and New York, those teams aren't juggernauts.

Washington would be left with the below depth chart:

PG: Fox/Carrington
SG: Coulibaly/ Champaigne/Jones
SF: Kispert/Bey/George
PF: Durant
C: Sarr/Holmes

In addition, Washington has the 6th pick and 40th pick in this years draft with enough room below the 1st apron (although none of these trades trigger the restriction) to use the full non taxpayer MLE, the bi-annual expectation and resign Malcom Brogdon to a contract in the $7MM per range with cushion below for the buyout market.

Washington likely lose out on their 2026 1st in this trade as NY owns it top-8 protected, but they keep all their future picks starting in 2027 and still own an extra 2029 1st (middle of BOS/POR/MIL), a top-20 protected Golden State 2030 1st, and an unprotected 2028 MIL swap. Sure, those 2 PHX swaps are high variance assets, but this is very close to having your cake (a short term run with Durant) and eating it too (being able to pivot, build through the draft, while seeing what your young players look like in more high leverage minutes).

[nate33]

lol no.

This is an absurd premise from the Wizards' perspective. Durant is obviously too old to be the centerpiece of a contender. So all this does is get the Wizards a 7th seed for a year or two while ruining their chances of landing high lotto picks over the next 2 seasons. Furthermore, they owe their 2026 FRP to the Knicks with top 8 protection. So this trade ultimately results in the Wizards giving up that pick. So effectively, part of the price tag for this transaction is that the Wizards are giving up what would have been a top 6 or so 2026 lotto pick.

If you want to work out some kind of Phoenix/Washington deal so that Phoenix gets control of their picks back, that might be plausible; but Durant would have to go to a 3rd team and picks/prospects would go to Washington.

And you can forget about that DeAaron Fox deal. If the Wizards are interested in Fox, they can just sign him as a free agent next summer.

[R-DAWG]

lol no.

This is an absurd premise from the Wizards' perspective. Durant is obviously too old to be the centerpiece of a contender. So all this does is get the Wizards a 7th seed for a year or two while ruining their chances of landing high lotto picks over the next 2 seasons. Furthermore, they owe their 2026 FRP to the Knicks with top 8 protection. So this trade ultimately results in the Wizards giving up that pick. So effectively, part of the price tag for this transaction is that the Wizards are giving up what would have been a top 6 or so 2026 lotto pick.

If you want to work out some kind of Phoenix/Washington deal so that Phoenix gets control of their picks back, that might be plausible; but Durant would have to go to a 3rd team and picks/prospects would go to Washington.

And you can forget about that DeAaron Fox deal. If the Wizards are interested in Fox, they can just sign him as a free agent next summer.

I don't think this is an absurd presence and I think the cost is very minimal for Washington. It's a unique opportunity to acquire a top-15 and top-30 player without giving up any key rotation pieces or valuable future draft capital in a conference where the path to winning a 1st rd series is WIDE OPEN. All for a franchise that hasn't won a 1st rd series since 2017, and has won a total of 4 playoff series over the past 43 years.

Your basically giving yourself a shot in a year where the East is wide open to go on a deep playoff run. Will it result in a championship, unlikely. I think the likely outcome is getting to a competitive 2nd rd series in 2026 and being a play-in team in 2027 before going back on the rebuild path in 2028.

And the biggest concern here is sending a high teens/low 20's 1st to New York (while getting back control of your 2026 and 2027 2nds in the process).

Seems like something I would have a meeting about if I'm the Wizards.

[nate33]

lol no.

This is an absurd premise from the Wizards' perspective. Durant is obviously too old to be the centerpiece of a contender. So all this does is get the Wizards a 7th seed for a year or two while ruining their chances of landing high lotto picks over the next 2 seasons. Furthermore, they owe their 2026 FRP to the Knicks with top 8 protection. So this trade ultimately results in the Wizards giving up that pick. So effectively, part of the price tag for this transaction is that the Wizards are giving up what would have been a top 6 or so 2026 lotto pick.

If you want to work out some kind of Phoenix/Washington deal so that Phoenix gets control of their picks back, that might be plausible; but Durant would have to go to a 3rd team and picks/prospects would go to Washington.

And you can forget about that DeAaron Fox deal. If the Wizards are interested in Fox, they can just sign him as a free agent next summer.

I don't think this is an absurd presence and I think the cost is very minimal for Washington. It's a unique opportunity to acquire a top-15 and top-30 player without giving up any key rotation pieces or valuable future draft capital in a conference where the path to winning a 1st rd series is WIDE OPEN. All for a franchise that hasn't won a 1st rd series since 2017, and has won a total of 4 playoff series over the past 43 years.

Your basically giving yourself a shot in a year where the East is wide open to go on a deep playoff run. Will it result in a championship, unlikely. I think the likely outcome is getting to a competitive 2nd rd series in 2026 and being a play-in team in 2027 before going back on the rebuild path in 2028.

And the biggest concern here is sending a high teens/low 20's 1st to New York (while getting back control of your 2026 and 2027 2nds in the process).

Seems like something I would have a meeting about if I'm the Wizards.

No. It's absurd. If this was your favorite team, you would not be counseling them to sacrifice the #18 pick, their 2026 lotto pick, and a late 2026 FRP, plus a bunch of swap rights and SRP's from Phoenix in order to acquire Durant and Fox and have a shot at "winning a first round series" for a year or two before Durant ultimately declines.

This is the exact failure the Wizards made in each of their last two rebuild cycles. They land a good player or two during their bottoming-out phase, but immediately got impatient and traded away future pick to put vets around their young players before they had enough good young players to make it sustainable. They did it after acquiring a young Arenas, Hughes and Haywood, and traded FRP's for Jamison to create a team only good enough to peak at 45 wins. And they did it after acquiring Wall, Beal and Porter by trading for Morris and Gortat to make a team only good enough to peak at 49 wins.