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Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 12:32 pm
by jayjaysee
So assuming PJ refuses to extend..
Lively, PJ, Prosper to Chicago
Ayo, Jalen, 12th, Portland first to Dallas
So..
Lively ~> 12?
PJ ~> Portland first due to the strong protections?
And the players make up for the two small value gaps?
Dallas - resets Lively’s rookie contract and drafts Egor. Or Jace. Or Coward. Or Carter. No idea. Whatever. There’s risk in trading a lottery talent that worked out for a new one, but Dallas paid his backup 18 mil a year and needs to balance the roster. Jalen comes in as a fine enough third big. Ayo offers a bit of playmaking and ball handling at least. Dump Hardy and use the taxMLE on whatever position you feel.
Chicago - loses 2 years of their lottery pick and the upside shot that Portland makes the playoffs but gets two starters that should fit really well with Matas/Coby/Giddey long term. They should not do this and they should tank. But that’s not an option. They have the guard depth to lose Ayo and like Collins as the backup to Lively. Vuc is on the trade block no matter what.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 12:35 pm
by Godaddycurse
jayjaysee wrote:So assuming PJ refuses to extend..
Lively, PJ, Prosper to Chicago
Ayo, Jalen, 12th, Portland first to Dallas
So..
Lively ~> 12?
PJ ~> Portland first due to the strong protections?
And the players make up for the two small value gaps?
Dallas - resets Lively’s rookie contract and drafts Egor. Or Jace. Or Coward. Or Carter. No idea. Whatever. There’s risk in trading a lottery talent that worked out for a new one, but Dallas paid his backup 18 mil a year and needs to balance the roster. Jalen comes in as a fine enough third big. Ayo offers a bit of playmaking and ball handling at least. Dump Hardy and use the taxMLE on whatever position you feel.
Chicago - loses 2 years of their lottery pick and the upside shot that Portland makes the playoffs but gets two starters that should fit really well with Matas/Coby/Giddey long term. They should not do this and they should tank. But that’s not an option. They have the guard depth to lose Ayo and like Collins as the backup to Lively. Vuc is on the trade block no matter what.
If chicago is serious about trying to win they should be aiming for a star with their picks instead of more 4th starter type players? Unless they are way higher on coby and Giddey than i am
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 12:41 pm
by jayjaysee
Godaddycurse wrote:jayjaysee wrote:So assuming PJ refuses to extend..
Lively, PJ, Prosper to Chicago
Ayo, Jalen, 12th, Portland first to Dallas
So..
Lively ~> 12?
PJ ~> Portland first due to the strong protections?
And the players make up for the two small value gaps?
Dallas - resets Lively’s rookie contract and drafts Egor. Or Jace. Or Coward. Or Carter. No idea. Whatever. There’s risk in trading a lottery talent that worked out for a new one, but Dallas paid his backup 18 mil a year and needs to balance the roster. Jalen comes in as a fine enough third big. Ayo offers a bit of playmaking and ball handling at least. Dump Hardy and use the taxMLE on whatever position you feel.
Chicago - loses 2 years of their lottery pick and the upside shot that Portland makes the playoffs but gets two starters that should fit really well with Matas/Coby/Giddey long term. They should not do this and they should tank. But that’s not an option. They have the guard depth to lose Ayo and like Collins as the backup to Lively. Vuc is on the trade block no matter what.
If chicago is serious about trying to win they should be aiming for a star with their picks instead of more 4th starter type players? Unless they are way higher on coby and Giddey than i am
Well they can still go get a star since they own all their own picks and have an actual quality lineup now? No idea what star they would trade for but they have plenty of salary options and could use Coby’s value in some three team deal as well if they’re trading for an offensive star..
But I don’t think they’re actually willing to go all in. And I don’t think they are willing to tank.
Sort of same terrible situation Dallas is in.
Thus a deal both sides will hate.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 1:52 pm
by Darren
Take out Lively. It's close.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 2:36 pm
by ChettheJet
The Bulls EVP and GM just got extended contracts, they made some bad draft pick trades and I'm of the belief that those extensions came with the understanding that they weren't going to be trading FRP's for last leg veterans or maybes. Considering that getting back their own #12 pick as the BIG prize in the Lavine deal shipping iot right out 3 months later just ain't happening. Team building through the draft was their marching order.
A year of PJ, sheer dreaming on Prosper and potential in Lively isn't enough for AK to go against what he's likely been told. Plus they've waited so long on the PORT pick they either trade it back to the Blazers or they sit on it until it hatches.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 4:00 pm
by letsgobulls23
Darren wrote:Take out Lively. It's close.
You think PJ and Prosper for Ayo, Jalen, 12th, the POR pick is close???
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 4:26 pm
by Texas Chuck
Darren wrote:Take out Lively. It's close.
We have a board policy against this kind of counter, Darren. Don't.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 4:27 pm
by Texas Chuck
yeah Chicago shouldn't, but Chicago typically chases the play-in so maybe? I'd want to know how close Ayo,Jalen, Portland 1st is to White and can Dallas make up that value difference to get him instead? (may not be possible)
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 5:40 pm
by Mavrelous
Coming to put my PJ valuation then reading the comments
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 5:46 pm
by jayjaysee
jayjaysee wrote:Thus a deal both sides will hate.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 5:50 pm
by Captain_Obvious
Texas Chuck wrote:Darren wrote:Take out Lively. It's close.
We have a board policy against this kind of counter, Darren. Don't.
Honestly, could you just stop patronizing everyone about what you perceive as proper valuation? I just want to minus 1 each and every idea from you and jayjaysee.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 5:55 pm
by daoneandonly
Dont like this one at all Jay. I'd value PJ and Lively more than anything coming back, perhaps that is a homer take, but I just feel they are just better than any of Ayo, a tween pick, and a weirdly protected PDX pick that who knows what would convey. The pieces in Chi are fine, but I liek our guys.
Now if Chi wants AD for said tween pick (among others) and expiring's like Huerter and Collins, Chi can make their push while keeping those guys
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 7:24 pm
by Texas Chuck
Captain_Obvious wrote:Texas Chuck wrote:Darren wrote:Take out Lively. It's close.
We have a board policy against this kind of counter, Darren. Don't.
Honestly, could you just stop patronizing everyone about what you perceive as proper valuation? I just want to minus 1 each and every idea from you and jayjaysee.
As a Moderator I am going to continue to enforce a policy that stops terrible counters. That's not being patronizing. It's my role.
If you think jayjaysee and I trying to be objective is a problem when you want us all to be Dallas homers, that's your right. I don't think jayjaysee is likely to change and I assure you I am not. I am not here to placate those who only care about the Dallas end and not what is fair. And I'm not the least bit sorry.
But I can guide you to some Mavericks echo chambers where you will be more comfortable. Just ask. But this board? Not going to be a Mavs cheerleader camp.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 7:38 pm
by jayjaysee
daoneandonly wrote:Dont like this one at all Jay. I'd value PJ and Lively more than anything coming back, perhaps that is a homer take, but I just feel they are just better than any of Ayo, a tween pick, and a weirdly protected PDX pick that who knows what would convey. The pieces in Chi are fine, but I liek our guys.
Now if Chi wants AD for said tween pick (among others) and expiring's like Huerter and Collins, Chi can make their push while keeping those guys
Yeah, I do agree. Had Lively worth more than 12 and PJ worth more than the Protected first. But thought Ayo/Jalen made up for it.
I see Dallas fans telling me they don’t. And see Chicago fans telling me it’s DOA.
So I’ll take my -1.
But do side with you about trading AD. Just don’t think that’s the road the team is going, so trying to make best of bad and actually start the season with an actual NBA line up…
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 7:38 pm
by ecuhus1981
FWIW, I didn't take Darren's counter as terribly off or purposely inflammatory. I do think it's significantly closer on value than the OP, that may mean I'm higher than others on Lively and PJ.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 8:10 pm
by Texas Chuck
ecuhus1981 wrote:FWIW, I didn't take Darren's counter as terribly off or purposely inflammatory. I do think it's significantly closer on value than the OP, that may mean I'm higher than others on Lively and PJ.
It would mean you are higher on PJ, right? Since Lively's value would be irrelevant in a deal he's not in. But Washington isn't worth two good rotation players, pick 12, and a future 1st for one year of him when his contract means he's unlikely to extend. But okay maybe you just really love Washington and think he's worth that. You (or Darren) could be major outliers on his value. But Darren has a history of this sort of post regarding only Dallas players so....
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 8:12 pm
by Mamba4Goat
I agree with Jay’s initial value of Lively>12, PJ>Portland 1st (but think that’s closer now that Portland is taking a step towards being competitive).
I think Ayo and Smith are being underrated by those who think this is way off. They’d be very good additions. The gap is more than made up by them.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 8:25 pm
by Mavrelous
I don't have Ayo as a good rotarion player, Smith is a 15 minutes backup, Lively and PJ are starters on a contender and defensive cornerstones, so Bulls players are just fillers in this context.
How much you deduct from PJs value because he's expiring and from Lively because of injuries varies.
For me personally, I have Darren's offer closer to real value than Jay's, but I also know poster history and he does have a lot of unreasonable counters, a mod who oversees the board and is familiar with posters tendecies has the judgement we casual posters don't have, also, I'm higher on those 2 and very low on Ayo.
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 9:32 pm
by Dominator83
jayjaysee wrote:Godaddycurse wrote:jayjaysee wrote:So assuming PJ refuses to extend..
Lively, PJ, Prosper to Chicago
Ayo, Jalen, 12th, Portland first to Dallas
So..
Lively ~> 12?
PJ ~> Portland first due to the strong protections?
And the players make up for the two small value gaps?
Dallas - resets Lively’s rookie contract and drafts Egor. Or Jace. Or Coward. Or Carter. No idea. Whatever. There’s risk in trading a lottery talent that worked out for a new one, but Dallas paid his backup 18 mil a year and needs to balance the roster. Jalen comes in as a fine enough third big. Ayo offers a bit of playmaking and ball handling at least. Dump Hardy and use the taxMLE on whatever position you feel.
Chicago - loses 2 years of their lottery pick and the upside shot that Portland makes the playoffs but gets two starters that should fit really well with Matas/Coby/Giddey long term. They should not do this and they should tank. But that’s not an option. They have the guard depth to lose Ayo and like Collins as the backup to Lively. Vuc is on the trade block no matter what.
If chicago is serious about trying to win they should be aiming for a star with their picks instead of more 4th starter type players? Unless they are way higher on coby and Giddey than i am
Well they can still go get a star since they own all their own picks and have an actual quality lineup now? No idea what star they would trade for but they have plenty of salary options and could use Coby’s value in some three team deal as well if they’re trading for an offensive star..
But I don’t think they’re actually willing to go all in. And I don’t think they are willing to tank.
Sort of same terrible situation Dallas is in.
Thus a deal both sides will hate.
Yep. Same terrible situation... Minus Cooper Flagg. So I would say considerably more terrible. Hell, nobody on the Bulls even comes close to AD, who still has a good few top notch years left in the tank (provided he can stay on the floor).
Re: Delayed overreaction - Lively to Chicago
Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2025 9:40 pm
by jayjaysee
Dominator83 wrote:jayjaysee wrote:Godaddycurse wrote:
If chicago is serious about trying to win they should be aiming for a star with their picks instead of more 4th starter type players? Unless they are way higher on coby and Giddey than i am
Well they can still go get a star since they own all their own picks and have an actual quality lineup now? No idea what star they would trade for but they have plenty of salary options and could use Coby’s value in some three team deal as well if they’re trading for an offensive star..
But I don’t think they’re actually willing to go all in. And I don’t think they are willing to tank.
Sort of same terrible situation Dallas is in.
Thus a deal both sides will hate.
Yep. Same terrible situation... Minus Cooper Flagg. So I would say considerably more terrible. Hell, nobody on the Bulls even comes close to AD, who still has a good few top notch years left in the tank (provided he can stay on the floor).
Yeah. That’s fair. But having AD and Cooper Flagg should make a team want to pick a real direction, right
Instead, No KD rumors… No Jrue rumor… No trade AD rumors.. no trade Flagg for Giannis and try and win a title...
Just wasting one of AD’s last seasons as a top 20 (ish?) guy as well as wasting the only year Dallas owns right to their own pick through 2030…
might end up with Sexton or Monk or some other mid-level starter…
Least Chicago fans can’t look at a situation as say “we could really contend” or “we could tank just this one year and create a really great young core with Flagg/Lively” .. it’s just is was it is in Chicago..
Both are terrible situations to me, no matter how glossy we look at our own guys.