RealGM

UTA trades: Collin Sexton
in: Marcus Smart, 2026 ORL/DET/MIL 2nd (most favorable), 2027 BOS/MIL 2nd (most favorable), 2031 POR 2nd, 2031 UTA 2nd, 2032 UTA 2nd
Utah takes on a bit of salary, but trades some offense for defense and someone with a bit more size to defend at shooting guard. More importantly we get a stockpile of 2nd round picks.

WAS trades: Marcus Smart, 2031 UTA 2nd, 2032 UTA 2nd
in: Anfernee Simons
Washington already has a similar archetype player in CJ, but Simons is younger. Smart certainly isn't the future of this team, so a roll of the dice seems reasonable.

BOS trades: Anfernee Simons, 2026 ORL/DET/MIL 2nd (most favorable), 2027 BOS/MIL 2nd (most favorable), 2031 POR 2nd
in: Collin Sexton
Boston trades for a cheaper, better player.

I don't see it for Boston unless getting out of the tax is the motivation.

BOS could really use a front court player more than a perimeter guy just in terms of filling out the depth chart... Right now they have 13 players signed:

PG: White / Pritchard / JD Davison (GLeague player of the year last year, former 2nd round pick they've kept around for 3 years now)
SG: Simons / Hugo Gonzalez (#30 pick this draft)
SF: Brown / Hauser / Baylor Scheierman (#30 pick last year, looked decent when he did get run late in year) / Jordan Walsh (#38 pick a couple years ago)
PF: Niang
C: Queta / Tillman
(Tatum is 13th)

Money reasons probably mean just one more guy to sign to a vet min deal or maybe more if they want to pay more tax for Horford or Kornet (though that means back into 2nd apron so have to dump someone).

They're about $17.7M over the tax with those 14 players too. Next year, they're about $31.4M under the tax with 9 players signed Tatum/Brown/White/Pritchard/Hauser/Scheierman/Gonzalez/Queta/Walsh). Staying under both years means they will be at regular tax rates instead of repeater rates for the rest of Tatum/Brown/White "window". Huge benefit in spending power.

I don't see them adding assets to turn a scoring guard into another scoring guard (even if cheaper/better) unless it made the difference in the tax. And even so, I feel like this works better if you incorporate a swap of Sexton somewhere else for front court player(s). If it's an actual long term solution, BOS can add better picks if needed. If it's just filler pieces, then THAT team can pay the 2nds for Sexton.

The Wizards aren't remotely interested in Simons. Adding in picks to get him makes it even more of a no.

Can't imagine Washington would have any interest in this. As has been stated in many trade proposals, Washington owes NYK a top-8 protected pick in 2026, so they don't want to win games this season. On top of that they just drafted 3 wings and have a handful of other young players that will get minutes at the 2. I don't see any logic in giving up draft picks to turn Smart into Simmons for Washington.

The Boston part makes sense. Get cheaper while keeping the offensive guard. Don't see Washington paying to turn Smart into Simons though. Not sure what this achieves for them?

Also don't think Sexton is worth that many 2nds esp not with multiple best ofs

Your value is ok I think. Idk if Sexton is all that much better than Simons but about 8 million cheaper.
I feel like Simons still has more potential even though the age gap isn’t much.
Assuming (which may be off) that the Celtics look to keep Simons or Sexton long term here….which player likely makes more going forward? What are the likely contracts?

hugepatsfan wrote:BOS could really use a front court player more than a perimeter guy just in terms of filling out the depth chart... Right now they have 13 players signed:

PG: White / Pritchard / JD Davison (GLeague player of the year last year, former 2nd round pick they've kept around for 3 years now)
SG: Simons / Hugo Gonzalez (#30 pick this draft)
SF: Brown / Hauser / Baylor Scheierman (#30 pick last year, looked decent when he did get run late in year) / Jordan Walsh (#38 pick a couple years ago)
PF: Niang
C: Queta / Tillman
(Tatum is 13th)

Money reasons probably mean just one more guy to sign to a vet min deal or maybe more if they want to pay more tax for Horford or Kornet (though that means back into 2nd apron so have to dump someone).

They're about $17.7M over the tax with those 14 players too. Next year, they're about $31.4M under the tax with 9 players signed Tatum/Brown/White/Pritchard/Hauser/Scheierman/Gonzalez/Queta/Walsh). Staying under both years means they will be at regular tax rates instead of repeater rates for the rest of Tatum/Brown/White "window". Huge benefit in spending power.

I don't see them adding assets to turn a scoring guard into another scoring guard (even if cheaper/better) unless it made the difference in the tax. And even so, I feel like this works better if you incorporate a swap of Sexton somewhere else for front court player(s). If it's an actual long term solution, BOS can add better picks if needed. If it's just filler pieces, then THAT team can pay the 2nds for Sexton.

Yeah this is probably right.
Who is the Collin Sexton of bigs? Propose that trade.

Utah would love to restock their SRP cupboard, but unless the Celtics are counting on every penny of cap savings, this is probably better as just a BOS-WAS deal.

Boston would rather get Smart than Sexton.

I think if I'm Washington I'd rather keep Smart to be a veteran leader/tone setter and their only quality perimeter defender. Also think there is a nonzero chance Smart can rehab his value to where a contender offers something for him to be their Alex Caruso at the deadline

Saints14 wrote:I think if I'm Washington I'd rather keep Smart to be a veteran leader/tone setter and their only quality perimeter defender. Also think there is a nonzero chance Smart can rehab his value to where a contender offers something for him to be their Alex Caruso at the deadline

Actually Coulibaly is our primary perimeter defender (and maybe Kyshawn George) but agree that Simons is not someone we should be looking at.

penbeast0 wrote:

Saints14 wrote:I think if I'm Washington I'd rather keep Smart to be a veteran leader/tone setter and their only quality perimeter defender. Also think there is a nonzero chance Smart can rehab his value to where a contender offers something for him to be their Alex Caruso at the deadline

Actually Coulibaly is our primary perimeter defender (and maybe Kyshawn George) but agree that Simons is not someone we should be looking at.

Fair point, I should have specified quality backcourt defender. I would imagine it’s valuable having Smart to play next to Bub or Tre as they inevitably struggle on defense for the next few years

Saints14 wrote:

penbeast0 wrote:

Saints14 wrote:I think if I'm Washington I'd rather keep Smart to be a veteran leader/tone setter and their only quality perimeter defender. Also think there is a nonzero chance Smart can rehab his value to where a contender offers something for him to be their Alex Caruso at the deadline

Actually Coulibaly is our primary perimeter defender (and maybe Kyshawn George) but agree that Simons is not someone we should be looking at.

Fair point, I should have specified quality backcourt defender. I would imagine it’s valuable having Smart to play next to Bub or Tre as they inevitably struggle on defense for the next few years

With their 2026 pick being top 8 protected and the quality of next year’s draft, they are going to be tanking hard. Having Smart negates that. David Aldridge is plugged in and he’s been hinting that Smart is probably not on the team by opening night. I expect a trade that nets them a future 2nd

I feel like the value works better with some team who actually wants Simons or Smart involved.

We don't need seconds. What are those seconds for? We don't have enough roster spots to roster all the 1sts that are coming our way in the next few years, let alone 5 more seconds. Those are useless and the more picks we are getting the more the value of next bunch of picks diminishes.

Thanks for the feedback, looks like this one is a miss!

I take it back. I'd take 5 seconds over giving up a second... Mea Culpa!