RealGM

Scenario: let's say Embiid and George both look pretty cooked. George is playing like last season, Embiid isn't playing much if at all. OTOH Lauri is back to being a 20/8 player on great efficiency, but perhaps not as good as he was 2 and 3 seasons ago. This would be a deadline move, so Philly would still not be a clear playoff team (so the 2026 pick has upside), but I think they have to keep VJ for a deal to be viable.

UTA trades: Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic, Kyle Anderson, Georges Niang, Kenyon Martin Jr., Walker Kessler, Sviataslav Mykhailiuk
PHI trades: Joel Embiid, Paul George, Jared McCain, 2026 PHI 1st, 2028 LAC 1st

Why Utah does it: If we are not going to be competitive for the next three years, we add a really nice prospect (McCain) who I am high on as an efficient, high-volume scorer + some high upside picks. The value proposition is hard to figure out, but I think there would be no better collection of assets available in Lauri and/or Walker trades. Maybe another pick is needed? Or maybe this fundamentally can't work without VJ (which I think makes this DOA). Financially George makes a bit more than Lauri, but not a ton more. Embiid is the big future hit, but IMO the picks are worth it and this is somewhat offset by not having to extend Kessler.

Why Philly does it: If these guys are truly what we saw last season, this gets them out of cap purgatory while keeping their young, potential star in VJ. They put together a coherent team with nice young pieces and if it is not working out the core is still young enough to pivot back to a rebuild but not have to worry about the contracts of Embiid/George.

UTA
Jared McCain/Walter Clayton/Isaiah Collier
Brice Sensabaugh/Keyonte George
Ace Bailey/Paul George/Brice Sensabaugh
Taylor Hendricks/Cody Williams
Kyle Filipowski/Oscar Tsiebwe
Perpetual IR: Joel Embiid

PHI
Tyrese Maxey/Kyle Lowry
VJ Edgecombe/Quintin Grimes/Eric Gordon
Kelly Oubre/Justin Edwards/Kenyon Martin Jr.
Lauri Markkanen/Kyle Anderson/Georges Niang
Walker Kessler/Adem Bona/Johnni Broome

Given Embiid/George are junk and so the deal is viable (and Phi obviously wouldn't do it if George/Embiid were playing well) - I'm not interested for Utah. That is so much money tied up, locks us out of even pretending to compete for the rest of the decade.

I don't enjoy endless tanking.

That Utah team would probably be the worst team ever going into '26-'27.

eminence wrote:Given Embiid/George are junk and so the deal is viable (and Phi obviously wouldn't do it if George/Embiid were playing well) - I'm not interested for Utah. That is so much money tied up, locks us out of even pretending to compete for the rest of the decade.

I don't enjoy endless tanking.

That Utah team would probably be the worst team ever going into '26-'27.

Yah, the second half of the year would be really rough. With VJ instead of one of the picks for me it is a no-brainer "yes," but without him I am not sure - but I think I would still lean yes? If only because I really believe in 2026, and we have high-variance draft assets from other teams in 2026, 2028, and 2031 after this. I think this is a path toward hitting on a star. Our best assets before the deal are probably something like:

2026 UTA 1st
Ace
2031 PHX 1st
2027 UTA 1st
2028 UTA 1st
2029 UTA 1st
Lauri
Walker
2030 UTA 1st
2031 UTA 1st
the rest

After it is more like (IMO)
2026 UTA 1st
Ace
2026 PHI 1st <depending on where they are at the deadline, regardless, high on this list)
2031 PHX 1st
2027 UTA 1st
2028 UTA 1st
2028 LAC 1st
McCain
2030 UTA 1st
2031 UTA 1st
the rest

So, ymmv if making the asset pool a bit richer (and more oriented toward rebuilding) is worth it.

I also don't enjoy endless tanking, but if we are in a position where we've hit a clear bottom and I can just enjoy young players getting better, I can deal with it. Being in this weird interstitial space where we might trade Lauri (or not), or we might trade Kessler (or not) is really frustrating. This gives us clarity about our direction. I don't think we'd be the worst team ever going into 26-27, though.

Philly is better off tanking for 2 years then use embiid/george as expiring salary ballast in trades

The Sixers can’t trade a near 1st at the deadline. This makes the framework fall apart. OKC gets the ‘26 or ‘27 with top 4 protection both years. Then there’s a potential owed future pick to Brooklyn with top 8 protection queued up afterward.

I don’t like the direction at all for them, but I’m willing to play along with the hypothetical.

Jojothewhale wrote:The Sixers can’t trade a near 1st at the deadline. This makes the framework fall apart. OKC gets the ‘26 or ‘27 with top 4 protection both years. Then there’s a potential owed future pick to Brooklyn with top 8 protection queued up afterward.

I don’t like the direction at all for them, but I’m willing to play along with the hypothetical.

Yes, that pick issue does kill it as-is. I can't believe I missed that in the future picks owed page!

If Embiid and PG are cooked nobody will trade for them.

And if they’re cooked Philly really needs their first next year.

Would want more than 2 picks to take one whatever amount they would be owed.

Doesnt Philly owe that '26 pick to OKC?

If Embiid and George are cooked the Sixers are just in rebuild mode. Doesn't make sense to burn the type of assets they'd need to to get off those contracts.

Every time something leaks out of Philly regarding Embiid's health status there's a medical retirement implication, and that just wildly misaligns the incentives for a trade.

In any event, I don't have the o.p. as nearly enough incentive to eat that much salary for that long. Philly should obviously do it.

jbk1234 wrote:Every time something leaks out of Philly regarding Embiid's health status there's a medical retirement implication, and that just wildly misaligns the incentives for a trade.

In any event, I don't have the o.p. as nearly enough incentive to eat that much salary for that long. Philly should obviously do it.

Exactly. Embiid trades based on the assumption that he is cooked really don't make sense. Philly is much better off going for the disabling injury exception than trading value to get him off their books. Any team that trades for an injured Embiid cannot pursue the disabling injury exception.

A scaled down version of this transaction involving just Paul George could make sense, but Embiid should not be included.

jbk1234 wrote:Every time something leaks out of Philly regarding Embiid's health status there's a medical retirement implication, and that just wildly misaligns the incentives for a trade.

In any event, I don't have the o.p. as nearly enough incentive to eat that much salary for that long. Philly should obviously do it.

I think I agree with the first sentence... But I don't see why on the 2nd. Unless you believe in a Maxey/VJ/Lauri core...

youngcrev wrote:If Embiid and George are cooked the Sixers are just in rebuild mode. Doesn't make sense to burn the type of assets they'd need to to get off those contracts.

Yeah this is where I come out too.

Obviously if Embiid and George are playing well this is a non-starter.

If they're cooked, Philly needs to take their lumps and start rebuilding around Maxey/VJ/McCain rather than lock themselves into a second-round exit team by trading a bunch of assets for a non-star like Lauri.

So slightly off topic from the original trade, but let's say Embiid's knee is really the gnarled tree stump that it seems, and he medically retires at the end of this season. What happens to the money? I assume Embiid gets all his contract money... do the sixer's get it off their cap space (while still having to pay it?) Or... ?

Foshan wrote:So slightly off topic from the original trade, but let's say Embiid's knee is really the gnarled tree stump that it seems, and he medically retires at the end of this season. What happens to the money? I assume Embiid gets all his contract money... do the sixer's get it off their cap space (while still having to pay it?) Or... ?

I *think* the way this works is that Embiid still gets the cash (from either the Sixers or their insurance carrier) and the money comes off their books from a cap/tax/apron perspective

I am trying to figure the value for the players. If Embiid and George are "cooked", that makes them essentially zero value to me.
So, it turns out to be Markkanen, Kessler and roles for McCain and 2 firsts? If Kessler is worth a first, Markkanen is only McCain and a first?
Bad year or not, Markkanen is worth more than that.

youngcrev wrote:I think I agree with the first sentence... But I don't see why on the 2nd. Unless you believe in a Maxey/VJ/Lauri core...

That is putting a ton into VJ basically becoming ANT Edwards. Which feels premature today. We know who Maxey and Lauri are and if those are your best two players, you are fighting for a playoff spot, not a championship.

louc1970 wrote:I am trying to figure the value for the players. If Embiid and George are "cooked", that makes them essentially zero value to me.
So, it turns out to be Markkanen, Kessler and roles for McCain and 2 firsts? If Kessler is worth a first, Markkanen is only McCain and a first?
Bad year or not, Markkanen is worth more than that.

He is not worth more than that. I wouldn't have him worth McCain/neutral salary.

Texas Chuck wrote:

louc1970 wrote:I am trying to figure the value for the players. If Embiid and George are "cooked", that makes them essentially zero value to me.
So, it turns out to be Markkanen, Kessler and roles for McCain and 2 firsts? If Kessler is worth a first, Markkanen is only McCain and a first?
Bad year or not, Markkanen is worth more than that.

He is not worth more than that. I wouldn't have him worth McCain/neutral salary.

Agreed. 4 years left at almost $50M AAV for a guy who is a solid second or great third option (and doesn't bring a ton of value elsewhere - defense, making plays for others, etc.) is rough.

If he doesn't swing back to his All-Star form this year he's going to end up on the board's 10 worst contracts list, and he'll deserve it.