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He has 2/95 to run on his current deal with a player option - meaning he can be a free agent next summer. Are the Hawks being prudent or playing with fire?

Laimbeer wrote:He has 2/95 to run on his current deal with a player option - meaning he can be a free agent next summer. Are the Hawks being prudent or playing with fire?

Prudent to see how this season goes. If they are a top 4 seed in the East, they sign him. If he does his usual unserious basketball thing, they don't and go into the youth movement. They are playing this smart.

Ducklett wrote:

Laimbeer wrote:He has 2/95 to run on his current deal with a player option - meaning he can be a free agent next summer. Are the Hawks being prudent or playing with fire?

Prudent to see how this season goes. If they are a top 4 seed in the East, they sign him. If he does his usual unserious basketball thing, they don't and go into the youth movement. They are playing this smart.

I think this is right. It’s a tricky situation because he hasn’t shown himself to be worth that max extension but it sure seems like he has the potential to be. You don’t want to let him go for nothing, but it might be really hard to find common ground in a negotiation.

New NBA economy. Trae might not get a max offer from anyone.
It is not easy to put together max cap space in the blink of an eye anymore (maybe I will stand corrected and eat these words next year, but I doubt it).
Aside from MVP level guys, it's hard to say anyone is worth the max any more.

He's hitting FA in the right time, if ATL don't pay, someone else will.

Excellent passer, ridiculously inefficient scoring guard, undersized, overly reliant on speed (a trait which drops off quicker than any other), and one of the worst defenders in the league by any metric. The league will rightfully continue to see this type of player devalued. Anyone maxing him out would look foolish.

By not offering an extension, the Hawks continue to build upon their excellent summer.

Next offseason Brooklyn and Utah should both very easily be able to make max cap space and both likely would end there rebuilds to add Trae in free agency. One thing to trade a bunch of assets for him, another to just sign him and take the talent for free

Chicago could let Vuc/White walk and choose Trae with their cap space.

Depending on how Tre/Bilal/Sarr look, you could see Washington coming out of the tank next offseason.. If any of their guys take big steps and you add a top 5 pick and Trae in same offseason..

I think Trae is getting the 5% max next offseason, but don’t blame Atlanta for wanting to see how the team looks before giving him a true max. Right now, I think I’d just be offering the same max anyone else can with a player option on the last season.

SkyHook wrote:Excellent passer, ridiculously inefficient scoring guard, undersized, overly reliant on speed (a trait which drops off quicker than any other), and one of the worst defenders in the league by any metric. The league will rightfully continue to see this type of player devalued. Anyone maxing him out would look foolish.

By not offering an extension, the Hawks continue to build upon their excellent summer.

Would be funny if utah offers him a max next summer

Godaddycurse wrote:

SkyHook wrote:Excellent passer, ridiculously inefficient scoring guard, undersized, overly reliant on speed (a trait which drops off quicker than any other), and one of the worst defenders in the league by any metric. The league will rightfully continue to see this type of player devalued. Anyone maxing him out would look foolish.

By not offering an extension, the Hawks continue to build upon their excellent summer.

Would be funny if utah offers him a max next summer

Based on the idiocy of their decision making this summer, I wouldn't be surprised. They're the anti-Hawks at this point.

jayjaysee wrote:Next offseason Brooklyn and Utah should both very easily be able to make max cap space and both likely would end there rebuilds to add Trae in free agency. One thing to trade a bunch of assets for him, another to just sign him and take the talent for free

Chicago could let Vuc/White walk and choose Trae with their cap space.

Depending on how Tre/Bilal/Sarr look, you could see Washington coming out of the tank next offseason.. If any of their guys take big steps and you add a top 5 pick and Trae in same offseason..

I think Trae is getting the 5% max next offseason, but don’t blame Atlanta for wanting to see how the team looks before giving him a true max. Right now, I think I’d just be offering the same max anyone else can with a player option on the last season.

I'd be fine if the Jazz paid him 5% of the cap.

Trae is going to be an interesting case. On the one hand, he's a top-25(ish) player in the league who's just entering his prime. In the pre-apron years he'd be an obvious, no-question max guy that you'd be thrilled to lock up before he got the chance to test free agency.

On the other, we've seen undersized, ball-dominant, inefficient scoring guards get rapidly devalued over the last few years as teams struggle to figure out how to incorporate them into a winning team structure and the apron pushes teams to be more careful with their spending. Can Trae be a top-2 guy on a contender? He's got to be if you're paying him a veteran max.

gswhoops wrote:Trae is going to be an interesting case. On the one hand, he's a top-25(ish) player in the league who's just entering his prime. In the pre-apron years he'd be an obvious, no-question max guy that you'd be thrilled to lock up before he got the chance to test free agency.

On the other, we've seen undersized, ball-dominant, inefficient scoring guards get rapidly devalued over the last few years as teams struggle to figure out how to incorporate them into a winning team structure and the apron pushes teams to be more careful with their spending. Can Trae be a top-2 guy on a contender? He's got to be if you're paying him a veteran max.

Trae is an elite playmaker so certainly wouldn’t label him just a scoring guard.

SkyHook wrote:Excellent passer, ridiculously inefficient scoring guard, undersized, overly reliant on speed (a trait which drops off quicker than any other), and one of the worst defenders in the league by any metric. The league will rightfully continue to see this type of player devalued. Anyone maxing him out would look foolish.

By not offering an extension, the Hawks continue to build upon their excellent summer.

where does "ridiculously inefficient" come from? He has a career 101 TS+ , and at rock bottom (this year), he was 98 TS+. A couple more turnovers than you'd like, but not atypical for someone with his usage.

His raw FG% is low, but actual points per possession is right on league average, and usually higher. If Trae is "ridiculously inefficient", then so are about 50-60% of guards across the NBA.

I'd be far more comfortably giving Trae a max compared to De'Aaron Fox who already received one, for instance.

jayjaysee wrote:One thing to trade a bunch of assets for him, another to just sign him and take the talent for free

Spot on.

Since the Hawks owe their 2027 pick to the Spurs unprotected, losing Trae for nothing next summer is not a smart risk.

HornetJail wrote:

SkyHook wrote:Excellent passer, ridiculously inefficient scoring guard, undersized, overly reliant on speed (a trait which drops off quicker than any other), and one of the worst defenders in the league by any metric. The league will rightfully continue to see this type of player devalued. Anyone maxing him out would look foolish.

By not offering an extension, the Hawks continue to build upon their excellent summer.

where does "ridiculously inefficient" come from? He has a career 101 TS+ , and at rock bottom (this year), he was 98 TS+. A couple more turnovers than you'd like, but not atypical for someone with his usage.

His raw FG% is low, but actual points per possession is right on league average, and usually higher. If Trae is "ridiculously inefficient", then so are about 50-60% of guards across the NBA.

I'd be far more comfortably giving Trae a max compared to De'Aaron Fox who already received one, for instance.

I mean same, but it doesn't necessarily follow that Trae is worth a max because Fox got one either.

HornetJail wrote:

SkyHook wrote:Excellent passer, ridiculously inefficient scoring guard, undersized, overly reliant on speed (a trait which drops off quicker than any other), and one of the worst defenders in the league by any metric. The league will rightfully continue to see this type of player devalued. Anyone maxing him out would look foolish.

By not offering an extension, the Hawks continue to build upon their excellent summer.

where does "ridiculously inefficient" come from? He has a career 101 TS+ , and at rock bottom (this year), he was 98 TS+. A couple more turnovers than you'd like, but not atypical for someone with his usage.

His raw FG% is low, but actual points per possession is right on league average, and usually higher. If Trae is "ridiculously inefficient", then so are about 50-60% of guards across the NBA.

I'd be far more comfortably giving Trae a max compared to De'Aaron Fox who already received one, for instance.

In only two of his seven seasons has his league adjusted eFG% been anywhere near even average. The last three seasons have been at 89, 94, and 90. His TS% gets propped up because he's a foul merchant, consistently among the highest FT attempts, but yet another reason to be concerned with any drop off in his speed. He's a fine passer but with a middling sub-2.5 AST/TO ratio.

Fox's max was a huge mistake on the part of the Spurs, imo. Trae's would be nearly as bad.

Ball4life32 wrote:

gswhoops wrote:Trae is going to be an interesting case. On the one hand, he's a top-25(ish) player in the league who's just entering his prime. In the pre-apron years he'd be an obvious, no-question max guy that you'd be thrilled to lock up before he got the chance to test free agency.

On the other, we've seen undersized, ball-dominant, inefficient scoring guards get rapidly devalued over the last few years as teams struggle to figure out how to incorporate them into a winning team structure and the apron pushes teams to be more careful with their spending. Can Trae be a top-2 guy on a contender? He's got to be if you're paying him a veteran max.

Trae is an elite playmaker so certainly wouldn’t label him just a scoring guard.

Agreed. His playmaking is part of what makes him an interesting case in a way that a guy who's just a scorer (like say Cam Thomas) isn't.

With his scoring and playmaking, there's a plausible argument to be made that he could be the #2 guy on a contender with the right #1. That's still a max guy even in the apron world.

SkyHook wrote:

HornetJail wrote:

SkyHook wrote:Excellent passer, ridiculously inefficient scoring guard, undersized, overly reliant on speed (a trait which drops off quicker than any other), and one of the worst defenders in the league by any metric. The league will rightfully continue to see this type of player devalued. Anyone maxing him out would look foolish.

By not offering an extension, the Hawks continue to build upon their excellent summer.

where does "ridiculously inefficient" come from? He has a career 101 TS+ , and at rock bottom (this year), he was 98 TS+. A couple more turnovers than you'd like, but not atypical for someone with his usage.

His raw FG% is low, but actual points per possession is right on league average, and usually higher. If Trae is "ridiculously inefficient", then so are about 50-60% of guards across the NBA.

I'd be far more comfortably giving Trae a max compared to De'Aaron Fox who already received one, for instance.

In only two of his seven seasons has his league adjusted eFG% been anywhere near even average. The last three seasons have been at 89, 94, and 90. His TS% gets propped up because he's a foul merchant, consistently among the highest FT attempts, but yet another reason to be concerned with any drop off in his speed. He's a fine passer but with a middling sub-2.5 AST/TO ratio.

Fox's max was a huge mistake on the part of the Spurs, imo. Trae's would be nearly as bad.

free throws are part of scoring efficiency whether you want to use an incomplete stat like EFG% or not. His FTR doesn't fall off by much in the playoffs either, so the people screeching about " the refs won't call fouls in the playoffs" don't have much to stand on there either.

HornetJail wrote:

SkyHook wrote:

HornetJail wrote:where does "ridiculously inefficient" come from? He has a career 101 TS+ , and at rock bottom (this year), he was 98 TS+. A couple more turnovers than you'd like, but not atypical for someone with his usage.

His raw FG% is low, but actual points per possession is right on league average, and usually higher. If Trae is "ridiculously inefficient", then so are about 50-60% of guards across the NBA.

I'd be far more comfortably giving Trae a max compared to De'Aaron Fox who already received one, for instance.

In only two of his seven seasons has his league adjusted eFG% been anywhere near even average. The last three seasons have been at 89, 94, and 90. His TS% gets propped up because he's a foul merchant, consistently among the highest FT attempts, but yet another reason to be concerned with any drop off in his speed. He's a fine passer but with a middling sub-2.5 AST/TO ratio.

Fox's max was a huge mistake on the part of the Spurs, imo. Trae's would be nearly as bad.

free throws are part of scoring efficiency whether you want to use an incomplete stat like EFG% or not. His FTR doesn't fall off by much in the playoffs either, so the people screeching about " the refs won't call fouls in the playoffs" don't have much to stand on there either.

Even if one ignores his far below average eFG% (which they shouldn't), his foul baiting has only brought his TS% up to the 50th percentile these past three years—98, 101, 98—middling at best. He's not even elite at just his position; middle third, closer to 40th best than 4th. If a team thinks that level of mediocrity is deserving of a max contract, then I wish them the best of luck. I just hope it's not my team.