Poeltl isn't a bad contract

[Thaddy]

I don't really buy the argument that Poeltl is massively overpaid when you actually look at his contract as a percentage of the cap instead of just seeing $104M and freaking out.

2026-27: $19.5M on a $164.96M cap = 11.8%

2027-28: $27.3M on a projected $174M cap = 15.7%

2028-29: $29.48M on a projected ~$182.7M cap = 16.1%

So let's compare that to 2016/17 when the cap was $94.1 mill.

Poeltl making 15.7-16.1% of the cap today is basically equivalent to making $14.8-15.2M in 2016.

Some centers from back then:

Jonas Valanciunas - $14.38M = 15.3% of cap

Tristan Thompson - $15.33M = 16.3%

Ian Mahinmi - $15.94M = 16.9%

Timofey Mozgov - $16M = 17.0%

Robin Lopez - $13.22M = 14.0%

Marcin Gortat - $12M = 12.7%

So Poeltl's expensive years are basically the modern equivalent of what JV/Tristan Thompson were making 10 years ago. And he's a much better player than they were when he got the extension. He was coming off 14.5/9.6/2.8 with 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks while shooting 63% from the field.

That's starting C/high level role player money. It isn't star money.

His contract looks pretty fair when you normalize it against the cap. This year at 11.8% is actually good value.

[Devilanche]

1) those players aren’t considered a good contract I believe other than Gortat /Robin Lopez. Rest is probably fair /bad contract but not unmovable in any case
2) I think the general concern is his availability going forward . If he’s able to play 25-30 mins for 70 games then sure that’s a fair / good contract.

[Thaddy]

1) those players aren’t considered a good contract I believe other than Gortat /Robin Lopez. Rest is probably fair /bad contract but not unmovable in any case
2) I think the general concern is his availability going forward . If he’s able to play 25-30 mins for 70 games then sure that’s a fair / good contract.

Gortat got that contract at 32 while he was a negative BPM player. Poeltl got it younger (below 30) when he's currently a positive BPM player. That's the data that mattered at the time of the extension.

[babyjax13]

Almost all of those were seen as bad to horrible contracts at the time, so not sure why this is the comp. If Poeltl can be healthy for the duration of his contract it is probably a slight overpay for what he does, but not too bad. But the recent injuries have been concerning, so unless he has a healthy season this year, I think he will remain as one of the worst value deals in the league.

[giberish]

Comparing Poeltl with some of the historically terrible contracts signed in 2016 doesn't really make him look good.

If he can be healthy and as effective as Toronto expected him to be with they gave him that contract than Toronto is fine at center. CMB can't be a full-time center but could cover the backup center minutes if they've got a solid starter.

However if Poeltl can't stay healthy - either being out or significantly limited - then Toronto has a major problem. They won't be able to effectively cover their center minutes. Trading for a center would likely require sending out Poeltl to keep their payroll under control - but other teams would view a limited version of Poeltl as a severely bad contract (they won't really care about his lower salary this season - it's the out years that are the potential problem).

[Vae Victus]

Poetl is 110% a bad contract and there is just no defending it atm. Until his play rebounds, teams rightly view him as as total toxic negative deal in all trade negotiations. I thought his extension had unguaranteed money, but man it is ROUGH seeing that he has 3 more fully guaranteed years at 27-28mil per.

That contract extension was extremely unwise, but TOR didnt want to lose him as a potential tradeable asset (similar situation as Lauri Markkenen with Utah), so i understood WHY they did it, it just ended up blowing up in their face. Much like Lauri has no positive trade value at his current salary, even if Poetl plays like his 24-25 self over a full healthy season, he's still not a positive value due to being paid market value. Ivica Zubac only had crazy value due to being "underpaid" at around 20-21mil for the next two seasons. Lauri had crazy insane value when was only paid 17mil a year before his recent extension.

TOR in the end isnt a FA destination so they need to play the trade game (like getting Kawhi both times). Poetl can be moved but will require significant draft captial if they want to get neutral/positive value players back.

[Devilanche]

1) those players aren’t considered a good contract I believe other than Gortat /Robin Lopez. Rest is probably fair /bad contract but not unmovable in any case
2) I think the general concern is his availability going forward . If he’s able to play 25-30 mins for 70 games then sure that’s a fair / good contract.

Gortat got that contract at 32 while he was a negative BPM player. Poeltl got it younger (below 30) when he's currently a positive BPM player. That's the data that mattered at the time of the extension.

Was BPM really a huge decision factor in terms of 2016 contract though?

Also 2016 is probably the worst year to take as a comparison given the spike in salary cap. Didn’t realise it was that year and how fast time has moved .


Summary : cap spike that summer , a lot of team with money to spend , once the stars got signed , the middle class got overpaid.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-12-worst-nba-contracts-of-infamous-2016-free-agency-with-most-finally-expiring-this-offseason/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2026/07/01/how-the-2016-offseason-broke-nba-free-agency-for-good/

[pipfan]

I can't agree-definitely a bad contract and I never understood why the Raps did it??

The easy question is-could Toronto trade him into cap space for a 2nd? If yes, then he's a neutral contract. You could even do the same test, but for an expiring.

Poeltl would cost AT LEAST 1 first to move, and Tor would have to bring back bad $

Solid player, when healthy, but clearly a bad contract

[Godaddycurse]

Poetl is 110% a bad contract and there is just no defending it atm. Until his play rebounds, teams rightly view him as as total toxic negative deal in all trade negotiations. I thought his extension had unguaranteed money, but man it is ROUGH seeing that he has 3 more fully guaranteed years at 27-28mil per.

That contract extension was extremely unwise, but TOR didnt want to lose him as a potential tradeable asset (similar situation as Lauri Markkenen with Utah), so i understood WHY they did it, it just ended up blowing up in their face. Much like Lauri has no positive trade value at his current salary, even if Poetl plays like his 24-25 self over a full healthy season, he's still not a positive value due to being paid market value. Ivica Zubac only had crazy value due to being "underpaid" at around 20-21mil for the next two seasons. Lauri had crazy insane value when was only paid 17mil a year before his recent extension.

TOR in the end isnt a FA destination so they need to play the trade game (like getting Kawhi both times). Poetl can be moved but will require significant draft captial if they want to get neutral/positive value players back.

its 19.5M, then 27M, then 29M guaranteed, then last year is 5M guaranteed w/ minutes qualifers that if he really was this unhealthy again moving forward then it wouldnt trigger

A healthy league average starting C at market value has some value, not a lot but some considering how much (back up caliber) C are getting paid these days.

[Godaddycurse]

I can't agree-definitely a bad contract and I never understood why the Raps did it??

The easy question is-could Toronto trade him into cap space for a 2nd? If yes, then he's a neutral contract. You could even do the same test, but for an expiring.

Poeltl would cost AT LEAST 1 first to move, and Tor would have to bring back bad $

Solid player, when healthy, but clearly a bad contract

Toronto did it to lock up a starting caliber C (probably ~15th give or take). He was healthy enough for 65 games (missed abunch intentionally to tanking) year immediately prior to signing that deal. Tough break with his health this year but its nothing major/structural so we will see if and how he bounces back.

Considering KP fetched 20M and back ups like RWIII/Landale fetched ~15M this year, a hobbled Poeltl is about 10M overpaid, while a healthy starting level poeltl is fairly compensated at his contract imo

[Texas Chuck]

No idea why this is a thread, but guess I won't move it since its getting engagement.

But can you move him into space for free? Nope. Can you move him for an expiring for free? Nope.

That's pretty much how you define a bad contract. Doesn't mean he's a useless player if he can stay on the court, but its not being anti-Toronto to point out its an unattractive (bad) contract. So sorry.

[jbk1234]

If he was healthy, if he could play 70 games without reinjuring his back, there'd be a reasonable debate over how negative his contract is. As neither of those things are true, the Raptors can either pay to get off him or ride it out.

Also, TT was essentially untradeable after he signed his non-rookie deal which is why he was never traded.

[Vae Victus]

Ok so his final year only has 5 mil guaranteed with a mins played clause. That moves his deal from horrific to just plain terrible, assuming his play doesn’t rebound.

TORs situation with him doesn’t change. Just play him and hope he stays healthy. A healthy and good Poetl is worth the money but no team will rightly take that gamble atm.

[nykballa2k4]

I can't agree-definitely a bad contract and I never understood why the Raps did it??

The easy question is-could Toronto trade him into cap space for a 2nd? If yes, then he's a neutral contract. You could even do the same test, but for an expiring.

Poeltl would cost AT LEAST 1 first to move, and Tor would have to bring back bad $

Solid player, when healthy, but clearly a bad contract

I think that argument for defining a positive/negative contract is kinda wonky because cap space typically exists for specific situations.
Like who is going to have that cap space and have a legitimate need for a veteran center who does what JP does?

JP's contract is for a starter or time/share center. That's what that money is for. If he is not well and can't be that, then he would be grossly overpaid.

I can't think of any team that would be eager to trade for JP. Not even sure that Bucks would take him with picks attached for Turner.

[basketballwacko2]

Comparing Poeltl with some of the historically terrible contracts signed in 2016 doesn't really make him look good.

If he can be healthy and as effective as Toronto expected him to be with they gave him that contract than Toronto is fine at center. CMB can't be a full-time center but could cover the backup center minutes if they've got a solid starter.

However if Poeltl can't stay healthy - either being out or significantly limited - then Toronto has a major problem. They won't be able to effectively cover their center minutes. Trading for a center would likely require sending out Poeltl to keep their payroll under control - but other teams would view a limited version of Poeltl as a severely bad contract (they won't really care about his lower salary this season - it's the out years that are the potential problem).

Maybe he's not bad compared to Timofey Mozgov's deal.

The only redeeming factor is that he's final year is only $5 million guaranteed. He is a bad contract unless he starts producing a lot more. Right now he's 30 getting paid a lot and getting 7 rebounds, 10 points, no 3 pt shot and his blocks have dropped to 1/2 his career average.

He seems like a player who has topped out. I could see him being a center for a bad team because they have to spend the minimum anyhow. But I think the Raps would be better if they could move him.

[basketballwacko2]

Poetl is 110% a bad contract and there is just no defending it atm. Until his play rebounds, teams rightly view him as as total toxic negative deal in all trade negotiations. I thought his extension had unguaranteed money, but man it is ROUGH seeing that he has 3 more fully guaranteed years at 27-28mil per.

That contract extension was extremely unwise, but TOR didnt want to lose him as a potential tradeable asset (similar situation as Lauri Markkenen with Utah), so i understood WHY they did it, it just ended up blowing up in their face. Much like Lauri has no positive trade value at his current salary, even if Poetl plays like his 24-25 self over a full healthy season, he's still not a positive value due to being paid market value. Ivica Zubac only had crazy value due to being "underpaid" at around 20-21mil for the next two seasons. Lauri had crazy insane value when was only paid 17mil a year before his recent extension.

TOR in the end isnt a FA destination so they need to play the trade game (like getting Kawhi both times). Poetl can be moved but will require significant draft captial if they want to get neutral/positive value players back.

its 19.5M, then 27M, then 29M guaranteed, then last year is 5M guaranteed w/ minutes qualifers that if he really was this unhealthy again moving forward then it wouldnt trigger

A healthy league average starting C at market value has some value, not a lot but some considering how much (back up caliber) C are getting paid these days.

I'd say the Raptors try to ride him out. They don't really have a center who can do more unless you go really small. IF you could put him in a deal and not have to payout too much for a young center it might make sense but IDK if I'd pay a #1 to move him and it would probably take that to get back a fairly useless expiring deal.

[Godaddycurse]

Poetl is 110% a bad contract and there is just no defending it atm. Until his play rebounds, teams rightly view him as as total toxic negative deal in all trade negotiations. I thought his extension had unguaranteed money, but man it is ROUGH seeing that he has 3 more fully guaranteed years at 27-28mil per.

That contract extension was extremely unwise, but TOR didnt want to lose him as a potential tradeable asset (similar situation as Lauri Markkenen with Utah), so i understood WHY they did it, it just ended up blowing up in their face. Much like Lauri has no positive trade value at his current salary, even if Poetl plays like his 24-25 self over a full healthy season, he's still not a positive value due to being paid market value. Ivica Zubac only had crazy value due to being "underpaid" at around 20-21mil for the next two seasons. Lauri had crazy insane value when was only paid 17mil a year before his recent extension.

TOR in the end isnt a FA destination so they need to play the trade game (like getting Kawhi both times). Poetl can be moved but will require significant draft captial if they want to get neutral/positive value players back.

its 19.5M, then 27M, then 29M guaranteed, then last year is 5M guaranteed w/ minutes qualifers that if he really was this unhealthy again moving forward then it wouldnt trigger

A healthy league average starting C at market value has some value, not a lot but some considering how much (back up caliber) C are getting paid these days.

I'd say the Raptors try to ride him out. They don't really have a center who can do more unless you go really small. IF you could put him in a deal and not have to payout too much for a young center it might make sense but IDK if I'd pay a #1 to move him and it would probably take that to get back a fairly useless expiring deal.

Yea he is definitely not worth shipping out at this point in time, esp when there is some reason to be optimistic about him bouncing back. His issue isnt degenerative/permanent like embiod

[ConSarnit]

I don't really buy the argument that Poeltl is massively overpaid when you actually look at his contract as a percentage of the cap instead of just seeing $104M and freaking out.

2026-27: $19.5M on a $164.96M cap = 11.8%

2027-28: $27.3M on a projected $174M cap = 15.7%

2028-29: $29.48M on a projected ~$182.7M cap = 16.1%

So let's compare that to 2016/17 when the cap was $94.1 mill.

Poeltl making 15.7-16.1% of the cap today is basically equivalent to making $14.8-15.2M in 2016.

Some centers from back then:

Jonas Valanciunas - $14.38M = 15.3% of cap

Tristan Thompson - $15.33M = 16.3%

Ian Mahinmi - $15.94M = 16.9%

Timofey Mozgov - $16M = 17.0%

Robin Lopez - $13.22M = 14.0%

Marcin Gortat - $12M = 12.7%

So Poeltl's expensive years are basically the modern equivalent of what JV/Tristan Thompson were making 10 years ago. And he's a much better player than they were when he got the extension. He was coming off 14.5/9.6/2.8 with 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks while shooting 63% from the field.

That's starting C/high level role player money. It isn't star money.

His contract looks pretty fair when you normalize it against the cap. This year at 11.8% is actually good value.

Would anyone take Poeltl into cap space for free? No.

Would anyone sign Poeltl to his current contract if he were a free agent? No.

So no, his contract is not “fair”. Players on fair contracts are tradable for value. Or at the very least dumpable for no cost.

And using other bad contracts as a comp makes your argument look even weaker. Jordan Poole doesn’t look like a “fair” contract because Bradley Beal and Zach Lavine got $45m+.

[Thaddy]

I don't really buy the argument that Poeltl is massively overpaid when you actually look at his contract as a percentage of the cap instead of just seeing $104M and freaking out.

2026-27: $19.5M on a $164.96M cap = 11.8%

2027-28: $27.3M on a projected $174M cap = 15.7%

2028-29: $29.48M on a projected ~$182.7M cap = 16.1%

So let's compare that to 2016/17 when the cap was $94.1 mill.

Poeltl making 15.7-16.1% of the cap today is basically equivalent to making $14.8-15.2M in 2016.

Some centers from back then:

Jonas Valanciunas - $14.38M = 15.3% of cap

Tristan Thompson - $15.33M = 16.3%

Ian Mahinmi - $15.94M = 16.9%

Timofey Mozgov - $16M = 17.0%

Robin Lopez - $13.22M = 14.0%

Marcin Gortat - $12M = 12.7%

So Poeltl's expensive years are basically the modern equivalent of what JV/Tristan Thompson were making 10 years ago. And he's a much better player than they were when he got the extension. He was coming off 14.5/9.6/2.8 with 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks while shooting 63% from the field.

That's starting C/high level role player money. It isn't star money.

His contract looks pretty fair when you normalize it against the cap. This year at 11.8% is actually good value.

Would anyone take Poeltl into cap space for free? No.

Would anyone sign Poeltl to his current contract if he were a free agent? No.

So no, his contract is not “fair”. Players on fair contracts are tradable for value. Or at the very least dumpable for no cost.

And using other bad contracts as a comp makes your argument look even weaker. Jordan Poole doesn’t look like a “fair” contract because Bradley Beal and Zach Lavine got $45m+.

He is making starter level money according to the current CBA by percentage so he is being paid fairly.

A lot of the NBA is driven by narrative. Walker Kessler is on a larger contract and he has trade value which wouldn't require picks to dump. Neither are all stars or will ever be all stars. I'd even argue there's a chance Poeltl could be better over the next 3 years than Kessler.

[JimmyPlopper]

I don't really buy the argument that Poeltl is massively overpaid when you actually look at his contract as a percentage of the cap instead of just seeing $104M and freaking out.

2026-27: $19.5M on a $164.96M cap = 11.8%

2027-28: $27.3M on a projected $174M cap = 15.7%

2028-29: $29.48M on a projected ~$182.7M cap = 16.1%

So let's compare that to 2016/17 when the cap was $94.1 mill.

Poeltl making 15.7-16.1% of the cap today is basically equivalent to making $14.8-15.2M in 2016.

Some centers from back then:

Jonas Valanciunas - $14.38M = 15.3% of cap

Tristan Thompson - $15.33M = 16.3%

Ian Mahinmi - $15.94M = 16.9%

Timofey Mozgov - $16M = 17.0%

Robin Lopez - $13.22M = 14.0%

Marcin Gortat - $12M = 12.7%

So Poeltl's expensive years are basically the modern equivalent of what JV/Tristan Thompson were making 10 years ago. And he's a much better player than they were when he got the extension. He was coming off 14.5/9.6/2.8 with 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks while shooting 63% from the field.

That's starting C/high level role player money. It isn't star money.

His contract looks pretty fair when you normalize it against the cap. This year at 11.8% is actually good value.

Would anyone take Poeltl into cap space for free? No.

Would anyone sign Poeltl to his current contract if he were a free agent? No.

So no, his contract is not “fair”. Players on fair contracts are tradable for value. Or at the very least dumpable for no cost.

And using other bad contracts as a comp makes your argument look even weaker. Jordan Poole doesn’t look like a “fair” contract because Bradley Beal and Zach Lavine got $45m+.

He is making starter level money according to the current CBA by percentage so he is being paid fairly.

A lot of the NBA is driven by narrative. Walker Kessler is on a larger contract and he has trade value which wouldn't require picks to dump. Neither are all stars or will ever be all stars. I'd even argue there's a chance Poeltl could be better over the next 3 years than Kessler.

I'd like to hear that argument