Poll: What are chances Duren takes $9.6M QO

[Bentley1225]

With September right around the corner, and training camps starting in about 3 weeks with nothing materialized for Duren signing a long term extension with Pistons, does the TnT Board think he'll just take $9.6 million QO?

He could conceivably sign as a UFA next summer with the likes of Memphis or Brooklyn.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Yes
No
Maybe So

What the hell is other?

[gswhoops]

Yes
No
Maybe So

What the hell is other?

Duren quits basketball entirely to pursue his dream of being a professional tuba player

[Jojothewhale]

There are always going to be corner cases like Grimes, but most people just aren't going to turn down the kind of guaranteed money it would take to play out a QO like this. I guess I could have voted Maybe, but my opinion in these situations is always, "Maybe, but probably not." No feels more spiritually correct, so I went with that.

[giberish]

I still think he'll sign something. I'd expect a 3 year deal (gets full Bird rights, but as a slightly shorter deal each side feels they're not as far off in total money).

[meekrab]

I still think he'll sign something. I'd expect a 3 year deal (gets full Bird rights, but as a slightly shorter deal each side feels they're not as far off in total money).

He has full bird rights as it is, no matter what deal he signs. Even in a S&T he would keep them. Nobody has cap space to make an offer Detroit wouldn't match at this point.

[Mavrelous]

Slim to none...

[gswhoops]

There are always going to be corner cases like Grimes, but most people just aren't going to turn down the kind of guaranteed money it would take to play out a QO like this. I guess I could have voted Maybe, but my opinion in these situations is always, "Maybe, but probably not." No feels more spiritually correct, so I went with that.

Just to put some numbers on this: If he takes the QO and then signs a 4 year $160M deal somewhere else next offseason, his 5 year take would be around $170M. Which is the equivalent of signing a 5 year deal this offseason for $34M AAV.

The amount of money he would need to make on his next deal to recoup what he'd lose taking the QO simply isn't realistic, plus has massive downside risk if he gets hurt or his play regresses. I'd still bet he ends up back in Detroit on a deal in the $32M - $35M AAV range

[hugepatsfan]

Almost none, IMO. The amount of money he'd be turning down to do so is absolutely life changing. With the (relatively) little he's made so far you just don't turn down what I imagine DET is offering to MAYBE make more later.

[Scoot McGroot]

I’m gonna say maybe, only because I haven’t seen a single report of what he’s actually been offered?

Like, if they’re haggling over 10-20-%, there’s no way he takes the QO. But, if somehow Detroit is somehow standing on something monumentally small, then I could see it happening. I just haven’t seen anyone stand on a solid report.

[Snakebites]

Very very small possibility. And that's only because we can't be certain of anything.

It's just too much money on the table. Even on the low end of what we might be offering he'd be leaving over 20 mill on the table for this season. Factoring in risk of injury and regression, the odds are against him making that money back in the form of a larger long term contract next offseason.

[jayjaysee]

I think he gets a 2+1PO around 100-110.

Really would like to know what both sides are asking for though. If we knew he still wants a max or knew Detroit wasn’t going over 25 a year.. or some hard lines in sand like that.. then the QO is a lot more likely.

But assuming there’s wiggle room, the QO is very unlikely.

Is that what “other” in the poll means? More information needed?

[giberish]

I still think he'll sign something. I'd expect a 3 year deal (gets full Bird rights, but as a slightly shorter deal each side feels they're not as far off in total money).

He has full bird rights as it is, no matter what deal he signs. Even in a S&T he would keep them. Nobody has cap space to make an offer Detroit wouldn't match at this point.

If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal, then if he gets traded he doesn't carry Bird rights with him. With a 3 year deal he carries full Bird rights even if he's traded.

[meekrab]

I still think he'll sign something. I'd expect a 3 year deal (gets full Bird rights, but as a slightly shorter deal each side feels they're not as far off in total money).

He has full bird rights as it is, no matter what deal he signs. Even in a S&T he would keep them. Nobody has cap space to make an offer Detroit wouldn't match at this point.

If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal, then if he gets traded he doesn't carry Bird rights with him. With a 3 year deal he carries full Bird rights even if he's traded.

He already has Bird rights from being with the Pistons for four years. It doesn't matter what length of contract he signs this summer, it would just be his sixth or seventh season without changing teams as a free agent.

[giberish]

He has full bird rights as it is, no matter what deal he signs. Even in a S&T he would keep them. Nobody has cap space to make an offer Detroit wouldn't match at this point.

If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal, then if he gets traded he doesn't carry Bird rights with him. With a 3 year deal he carries full Bird rights even if he's traded.

He already has Bird rights from being with the Pistons for four years. It doesn't matter what length of contract he signs this summer, it would just be his sixth or seventh season without changing teams as a free agent.

He has full Bird rights with Detroit and Detroit only. If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal and then gets traded during the contract he would not have Bird rights with his new team. If he signs a 3 year deal than even if he gets traded he would have full Bird rights with whatever team he ends up with. That's an important distinction, especially as the contract difficulties make it likely that he gets dealt, even on a short contract.

[meekrab]

If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal, then if he gets traded he doesn't carry Bird rights with him. With a 3 year deal he carries full Bird rights even if he's traded.

He already has Bird rights from being with the Pistons for four years. It doesn't matter what length of contract he signs this summer, it would just be his sixth or seventh season without changing teams as a free agent.

He has full Bird rights with Detroit and Detroit only. If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal and then gets traded during the contract he would not have Bird rights with his new team. If he signs a 3 year deal than even if he gets traded he would have full Bird rights with whatever team he ends up with. That's an important distinction, especially as the contract difficulties make it likely that he gets dealt, even on a short contract.

That's not how Bird rights work.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap17.htm#Q32

[giberish]

He already has Bird rights from being with the Pistons for four years. It doesn't matter what length of contract he signs this summer, it would just be his sixth or seventh season without changing teams as a free agent.

He has full Bird rights with Detroit and Detroit only. If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal and then gets traded during the contract he would not have Bird rights with his new team. If he signs a 3 year deal than even if he gets traded he would have full Bird rights with whatever team he ends up with. That's an important distinction, especially as the contract difficulties make it likely that he gets dealt, even on a short contract.

That's not how Bird rights work.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap17.htm#Q32

That very much is how Bird rights work.

What's more, if Duren signs a 1 or 2 year deal with Detroit, then he would get a trade veto (effectively a no trade clause). As trading him would take away his Bird rights (that Detroit would have but a new team would not).

I'm sure Detroit values the option of being able to trade Duren in the next few years if they so choose - so they would prefer that he did not get veto power over a trade. This is the motivation for Detroit to come to a 3 year deal.

[Devilanche]

He has full Bird rights with Detroit and Detroit only. If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal and then gets traded during the contract he would not have Bird rights with his new team. If he signs a 3 year deal than even if he gets traded he would have full Bird rights with whatever team he ends up with. That's an important distinction, especially as the contract difficulties make it likely that he gets dealt, even on a short contract.

That's not how Bird rights work.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap17.htm#Q32

That very much is how Bird rights work.

What's more, if Duren signs a 1 or 2 year deal with Detroit, then he would get a trade veto (effectively a no trade clause). As trading him would take away his Bird rights (that Detroit would have but a new team would not).

I'm sure Detroit values the option of being able to trade Duren in the next few years if they so choose - so they would prefer that he did not get veto power over a trade. This is the motivation for Detroit to come to a 3 year deal.

Birds right follow traded player. It’s in the link he shared.

When a player is traded, his new team inherits his Bird rights. For example, if a player signs a three-year contract, plays two and a half seasons with that team, and is traded at the trade deadline in the third season, then his new team has full Bird rights following the third season.

[Scoot McGroot]

If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal, then if he gets traded he doesn't carry Bird rights with him. With a 3 year deal he carries full Bird rights even if he's traded.

He already has Bird rights from being with the Pistons for four years. It doesn't matter what length of contract he signs this summer, it would just be his sixth or seventh season without changing teams as a free agent.

He has full Bird rights with Detroit and Detroit only. If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal and then gets traded during the contract he would not have Bird rights with his new team. If he signs a 3 year deal than even if he gets traded he would have full Bird rights with whatever team he ends up with. That's an important distinction, especially as the contract difficulties make it likely that he gets dealt, even on a short contract.

He would convey with "non-Bird Rights", but not with full Bird Rights, if he were to sign a 1 or 2 year deal (if there's an option on the 2nd year) and were traded during that new deal. This is why these players have a "defacto no trade clause" as they have a right to veto any trade they are included so that they can maintain their full Bird Rights. Teams often now have these players sign away that right to veto at the time of signing of the contract.

[Scoot McGroot]

That's not how Bird rights work.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap17.htm#Q32

That very much is how Bird rights work.

What's more, if Duren signs a 1 or 2 year deal with Detroit, then he would get a trade veto (effectively a no trade clause). As trading him would take away his Bird rights (that Detroit would have but a new team would not).

I'm sure Detroit values the option of being able to trade Duren in the next few years if they so choose - so they would prefer that he did not get veto power over a trade. This is the motivation for Detroit to come to a 3 year deal.

Birds right follow traded player. It’s in the link he shared.

When a player is traded, his new team inherits his Bird rights. For example, if a player signs a three-year contract, plays two and a half seasons with that team, and is traded at the trade deadline in the third season, then his new team has full Bird rights following the third season.

Sure, but make sure to read rule 101

There are two additional circumstances in which a trade requires the player's consent:

When the player is playing under a one-year contract (excluding any option year) and will have Larry Bird or Early Bird rights at the end of the season. This includes first round draft picks following their fourth (option) season, who accept their team's qualifying offer for their fifth season. When the player consents to such a trade, his Larry Bird/Early Bird rights are not traded with him, and instead becomes a Non-Bird free agent3. The player's consent is also required for any subsequent trades that season.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap17.htm#Q101