Value of next year's expiring contracts

[5DOM]

This year

Pau Gasol

What about next year?

I don't see many rebuilding teams with good tradeable players (well at least not as good as gasol)

[farzi]

Portland has Raef, could that net us a chris paul?

[Vindicater]

... walker should get us a sandwich here in minesota

[Serpo]

That Gasol thing was a pretty unique situation i doubt something like that happens again anytime soon .

[shrink]

That Gasol thing was a pretty unique situation i doubt something like that happens again anytime soon .

I disagree. While the Kwame/Gasol trade saving MEM $40 mil seemed extreme, many of the big contract stars that have been traded in the last few years have involved significant expirings. Garnett's deal involved Ratliff's giant expiring. Iverson had Joe Smith's deal. The J-rich trade might not have happened if the Bobcats didn't have a TPE, which was valuable to GSW. IND would like to get some expirings back in a JON trade.

My point is, that salary matters in the NBA, and a lot of the biggest vets are on monsterously big contracts. All but a handful of GM's respect the luxury tax. I don't see this changing next year.

[zong]

about half the league will have significant expirings and cap space in the summer of 09, so... the market for expirings likely wont be as "hot"

[5DOM]

I dont think any team would want JON

[Serpo]

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I disagree. While the Kwame/Gasol trade saving MEM $40 mil seemed extreme, many of the big contract stars that have been traded in the last few years have involved significant expirings. Garnett's deal involved Ratliff's giant expiring. Iverson had Joe Smith's deal. The J-rich trade might not have happened if the Bobcats didn't have a TPE, which was valuable to GSW. IND would like to get some expirings back in a JON trade.

My point is, that salary matters in the NBA, and a lot of the biggest vets are on monsterously big contracts. All but a handful of GM's respect the luxury tax. I don't see this changing next year.

Every other trade had at least something significant bIsides the expiring in it. If Indy would just want expirings i guarantee you he wouldn't be still in Indy.

Of course there's going to be expirings in new trade BUT for most teams this is not the most important factor if a good player is to leave the team.

They want something back in return that actually helps the team somehow besides financial . ( and no Memphis hasn't gotten that back )

[loserX]

about half the league will have significant expirings and cap space in the summer of 09, so... the market for expirings likely wont be as "hot"

This is a good point. Gasol ended up on the Lakers because with the Bulls unwilling to "McKie" PJ Brown, LA was the only pursuing team with enough expirings. And they still had to add 2 picks and 2 prospects. Kwame's expiring had more value to the Griz than other teams' short deals.

Next year, there are a lot of teams with expiring contracts. So it may be more of a seller's market for teams wanting to trade a star player. Sure, Toronto will have Rasho and Graham...but Portland will have Lafrentz. Seattle will have Wilcox and Marshall. The Knicks will have Marbury and Malik. The Cavs will have half their team.

So the question is not "what can your expirings get you?"...lots of teams can compete with that. The question will be "how much are you willing to add to your expirings to make your offer stand out?"

[deviljets7]

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This is a good point. Gasol ended up on the Lakers because with the Bulls unwilling to "McKie" PJ Brown, LA was the only pursuing team with enough expirings. And they still had to add 2 picks and 2 prospects. Kwame's expiring had more value to the Griz than other teams' short deals.

Next year, there are a lot of teams with expiring contracts. So it may be more of a seller's market for teams wanting to trade a star player. Sure, Toronto will have Rasho and Graham...but Portland will have Lafrentz. Seattle will have Wilcox and Marshall. The Knicks will have Marbury and Malik. The Cavs will have half their team.

So the question is not "what can your expirings get you?"...lots of teams can compete with that. The question will be "how much are you willing to add to your expirings to make your offer stand out?"

Well put. Expirings on their own, have little value. They have been to be paired with something of value (ie: picks/young players) and/or you take negative contracts as part of the deal.

Even with the Gasol deal, the Lakers had to include a pair of #1s and last year's #1 in Crittenton. Did the Lakers get an absolute steal of a trade? Of course they did. However, the idea that Kwame Brown got them Gasol is absurd and completely false.

[shrink]

about half the league will have significant expirings and cap space in the summer of 09, so... the market for expirings likely wont be as "hot"

So if the '09 free agent market is going to be competitive, wouldn't that mean that teams would want MORE expiring contracts, to increase their market power?

In addition, the reason there is significant space is because there are many more good free agents. That's yet another market issue that will increase the value of expirings.

[Cevap]

i can see redd being available, milwaukee is just stuck in neutral right now.

[deviljets7]

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So if the '09 free agent market is going to be competitive, wouldn't that mean that teams would want MORE expiring contracts, to increase their market power?

In addition, the reason there is significant space is because there are many more good free agents. That's yet another market issue that will increase the value of expirings.

Yes there may be more demand for expirings, but at the same time the supply of expirings will be a lot higher next season.

This past season you only had one contending team (Lakers) with an expiring contract larger than the MLE. Next year you have the Bulls (Gooden), Cavaliers (Szerbiack and Snow), Mavericks (Stackhouse), Rockets (Jackson), Blazers (LaFrenz), Raptors (Rasho) and Jazz (Harpring) with expirings of $6 million or more next season. That list doesn't include possible rebuilding teams (Knicks, Nets, Grizzlies, Kings and Sonics) and teams with very productive veteran expirings (Lakers, Hawks and 76ers) that will have large expiring contracts.

[Smooth32]

Cavaliers will be quite the attractive trade partner with up to 31 million in expirings (Szczerbiak - 13, Snow - 7, Jones - 5 and Smith - 5, Allred - 1) and possibly up to 36 million if Varejao opts out like he probably will...

Combine that with a 1st round pick being likely available and some good young talent (Varejao, Pavlovic and maybe Delonte West) and the Cavs could be landing their sidekick after all...

[WizardsWorld]

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Yes there may be more demand for expirings, but at the same time the supply of expirings will be a lot higher next season.

This past season you only had one contending team (Lakers) with an expiring contract larger than the MLE. Next year you have the Bulls (Gooden), Cavaliers (Szerbiack and Snow), Mavericks (Stackhouse), Rockets (Jackson), Blazers (LaFrenz), Raptors (Rasho) and Jazz (Harpring) with expirings of $6 million or more next season. That list doesn't include possible rebuilding teams (Knicks, Nets, Grizzlies, Kings and Sonics) and teams with very productive veteran expirings (Lakers, Hawks and 76ers) that will have large expiring contracts.

Ever heard of Antawn Jamison and the Wizards? He's expiring and we're pretty good...

[VintaGe36]

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The J-rich trade might not have happened if the Bobcats didn't have a TPE, which was valuable to GSW.

IIRC it wasn't that CHA had a TPE, but rather they were under the cap enough to absorb J-Rich, and a TPE was created.

[loserX]

Ever heard of Antawn Jamison and the Wizards? He's expiring and we're pretty good...

Yeah, but he wasn't available. The Wiz needed him to compete a lot more than the Lakers needed Brown, and with Arenas set to opt out the Wizards weren't going to trade Jamison for an eight-figure long-term salary anyway. (Hell, with an opt-out coming up, Arenas himself was an expiring, but you weren't going to trade him either.)

[gosixers]

The sixers find themselves in a unique situation by having Andre Miller as an expiring contract. I know that sixers are semi-competitive right now, but he's definitely not part of their long-term plans. However, most of the players that have been mentioned so far don't carry nearly as much value to the receiving team as Miller. He had a great season this year and a team like the Heat (if they don't get Rose), Nuggets or Cavs would be wise to take a 1-year flyer with him. He would probably cost a mid-first round pick and possibly another expiring contract to make the salaries work. Or ideally a team would take Willie Green or Reggie Evans back to help the sixers future cap space. The team that lands Miller could even try to work out an extension before the deal goes through if they are interested.

[Village Idiot]

Vince Carter is the type of player who will probably become available for an expiring and other assets.

[Serpo]

That depends a lot on how he plays next year if he has a good year i don't think he's going to be that cheap .