Heat at Bulls 4/9 @ 8 PM ET

[oreon]

You’re basically removing any blame from Tyler on the Heat struggling this season because overall he’s had a good year in one argument while also knocking KD for the Suns struggling this season while he’s had a much better year than Herro in another argument.

I agree with you, I would have loved to keep Jimmy and then added KD this summer (he no doubt would’ve came this summer with Jimmy here). A Jimmy/Bam/KD/Herro big 4 would’ve been amazing, egos ruined that

Yes
This is how this works.
When you are a higher tier player and getting paid 20 mil more there are more expectations. This is how the NBA has and always has been.
For all nba guys, you gotta atleast make the play in.
Herro atleast made the play in

And if we blaming guys for this Heat season, Herro is down the list. It goes Riley , Spo Bam and then you get to Herro

That’s some wild nitpicking but do your thing!!

How is it wild nitpicking to say better players should win more
Lets say we replace Herro with KD with this roster. And Herro with Joker
For Herro led team, I expect them to be in play in
For KD led team I expect them to be around 5 -6
For Joker led team I expect them to push for the 3rd or 4th seed in the east

More talent = more expectations

For this season we can blame Herro and Bam somewhat but majority of the blame is with FO. Neither player is good enough to elevate this team to be beyond a play in team. Thats why they're not 1 and no 2 options

For Suns, they have a better roster. We can all agree Booker is better than Herro and Bam. Yet they have a worse record. KD gets blame for that. He's not the only one. Booker too. They should won more regardless of what was around them

[Flash4thewin]

If we can land KD and keep our picks this year, we have a window where we can contend.

We are kind of like the Bucs before they landed Brady. Waiting for that guy to cement our roster.

But thats not being honest or realistic. KD will cost us actual assets.

JJJ this year is a negative value,
Jovic is hurt and up to get paid, not a positive asset
Wiggins has not shown much other than meh and now add injury concerns, thats not a positive asset.
GSW pick will be in the 20s
A 2030 pick?

KD will have demand and the Suns can do better than our leftovers. Ironically it’s painful to see a big part of the Dame package look so bad, JJJ and Jovic are not positive assets unfortunately, only Herro showed his worth.

Id think the Suns would prefer picks from us down the road. Theyd hope we go off the rails and get better value picks.

Also, KD has a monster contract. Which teams with better assets also have the contracts to match?

I think it depends how the playoffs turn out. The attraction to KD is that hes a short term fix and in theory should elevate a team on the verge. The Hawks, The Knicks come to mind but you can have a sleeper team depending on how the playoffs go. Remember the Suns dont own their picks, they would need actual players not picks down the line. They traded an unprotected 2031 pick for 3 picks, in 25,27,29. To be fair they are a mess.

[dshearn]

The Herro hate for the wide open 3 pointer he just stole is misplaced.

There is tons of blame for everyone on that loss.

I think it's valid tbh. If you're trying to be a leader of this team, you can't make that type of mental error.

You say error.....

How so?

Think about it....


Time is ticking down, You have 41 seconds and the score is 109-114. Tyler Herro shoots 52% on wide open 3s from that area.

Tyler shoots high 50s like 58%/59% under the basket...so let's say he takes the 7-8% advantage and goes for 2 and best case scenario he makes it.

Now the score 111-114 and you probably have 38 or 39 seconds left. The Bulls are going to run off at minimum the 24 seconds.

If they score the game is 111-116 or 111-117 so you need 5 or 6 points in 14 seconds.

If they miss YOU STILL NEED a 3 pointer in 14 seconds with the score 111-114 to tie it, except EVERYONE knows it's coming. What scenario do we expect is going to happen other then our Best 3 point shooter getting a WIDE open attempt from his spot? If you need a 3...that is the best situation possible.


The smart play was to take the wide open higher percentage 3 pointer that Tyler attempted to make the score 112-114. For starters you saved time, second now the Bulls can outright loose this game...so you added pressure.

If they miss on the other end, you force the Bulls to defend the whole court since 2 will tie, and a 3 at that 14 second mark could outright win the game as a walk off basket.

If they make their basket on the other end it is now 112-116 or 112-117. So you probably SAVED that extra 2 seconds on Tyler's wide open 3 vs a contested drive. Now you have 16 seconds to try a quick contested 3 to make it 115-116 or 115-117 with 10 to 20% more time to start fouling and hoping for missed FTs.


At the end of the day, the Heat probably needed at LEAST a 2 pointer and a 3 pointer to win the game. I doubt anyone is going to make an argument that an uncontested 3 when Tyler took it was a mental error in that situation that would sway me.

[DayofMourning]

Geez dsh. Well done.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Come on lol there’s no justifying it. It’s terrible shot, if he makes it he’s the Herro of the night if we win I know but it’s a bad shot. Hes 19% from 3 in the clutch this season, I’d guess he’s 100% on wide open fast break dunks this year lol

[SerialChiller]

Come on lol there’s no justifying it. It’s terrible shot, if he makes it he’s the Herro of the night if we win I know but it’s a bad shot. Hes 19% from 3 in the clutch this season, I’d guess he’s 100% on wide open fast break dunks this year lol

Yeah saying 52% on wide open 3s in that area doesn't take into account the clutch situation and the way he's shooting it running for a breakaway and then pulling up abruptly off the dribble. And 58% under the basket like you said is irrelevant since it's a breakaway dunk not a average close attempt. That's 100%.

[SerialChiller]

The team at this rate is gonna turn Tobin into an alchy

Watch on YouTube

[Shewasfly]

The Herro hate for the wide open 3 pointer he just stole is misplaced.

There is tons of blame for everyone on that loss.

I think it's valid tbh. If you're trying to be a leader of this team, you can't make that type of mental error.

You say error.....

How so?

Think about it....


Time is ticking down, You have 41 seconds and the score is 109-114. Tyler Herro shoots 52% on wide open 3s from that area.

You could have stopped here though. Because what does Tyler shoot on wide open layups in comparison lol? It probably isn't even tracked because if its not 100% its somewhere around there.

If you have the opportunity to get it to a 1 possession game with a whole 15+ seconds left after you make a stop, the right choice is obvious. Take the layup and depend on your defense to get a stop. The momentum is on your side at that point too, and all the pressure on them during their next possession.

Look, like I said, I agree that the play is being overblown in the grand scheme of things. It wasn't the reason we lost. I agree even more that it's being overblown when you have people using it to extrapolate past this game, like saying this is the reason why Herro is not a valuable player, how it's a reason to trade him, claiming this is the first good season he's ever had in his career, etc. But again, it's being overblown by the exact same characters and for the exact same agenda (although I guess now we also have a Wiggins stan to contend with which is insane lol). But if you leave that stupidity out, the criticism of Tyler on that play are super valid.

I appreciate your breakdown, but unless you won't have any or very little time left to get the ball back, you take the guaranteed 2 and depend on your defense to get a stop. Always. Its as simple as that to me.

[VaDe255]

The Herro hate for the wide open 3 pointer he just stole is misplaced.

There is tons of blame for everyone on that loss.

I think it's valid tbh. If you're trying to be a leader of this team, you can't make that type of mental error.

You say error.....

How so?

Think about it....


Time is ticking down, You have 41 seconds and the score is 109-114. Tyler Herro shoots 52% on wide open 3s from that area.

Tyler shoots high 50s like 58%/59% under the basket...so let's say he takes the 7-8% advantage and goes for 2 and best case scenario he makes it.

Now the score 111-114 and you probably have 38 or 39 seconds left. The Bulls are going to run off at minimum the 24 seconds.

If they score the game is 111-116 or 111-117 so you need 5 or 6 points in 14 seconds.

If they miss YOU STILL NEED a 3 pointer in 14 seconds with the score 111-114 to tie it, except EVERYONE knows it's coming. What scenario do we expect is going to happen other then our Best 3 point shooter getting a WIDE open attempt from his spot? If you need a 3...that is the best situation possible.


The smart play was to take the wide open higher percentage 3 pointer that Tyler attempted to make the score 112-114. For starters you saved time, second now the Bulls can outright loose this game...so you added pressure.

If they miss on the other end, you force the Bulls to defend the whole court since 2 will tie, and a 3 at that 14 second mark could outright win the game as a walk off basket.

If they make their basket on the other end it is now 112-116 or 112-117. So you probably SAVED that extra 2 seconds on Tyler's wide open 3 vs a contested drive. Now you have 16 seconds to try a quick contested 3 to make it 115-116 or 115-117 with 10 to 20% more time to start fouling and hoping for missed FTs.


At the end of the day, the Heat probably needed at LEAST a 2 pointer and a 3 pointer to win the game. I doubt anyone is going to make an argument that an uncontested 3 when Tyler took it was a mental error in that situation that would sway me.

I think it's a small error.

I'd make the following simple assumptions:

i) The 3 was open and he makes it around 50%
ii) The lane for the layup was free, it's most like 2 free points -> he makes that close to 100% (we assume it's 100% for simplicity)
iii) Lets also assume they defend 100% the next possession for simplicity and if they tie they win OT at 50% of the time
iv) They need a 3 to tie now after he made the layup, lets say it is somewhat contested and 30% success only
v) If Tyler made the 3, they only need a 2 to tie, so lets asume they get it around 50%

So lets look at the two scenarios and how the winning percentage changes:

Tyler takes and makes 3 -> They defend next possession -> They tie -> They win OT = 50% * 100% * 50% * 50% -> 12.5% chance to win
Tyler takes layup -> They defend next possession -> They tie -> They win OT = 100% * 100% * 30% * 50% -> 15% chance to win

Obviously you can tweak some parameters and this is not the whole game tree, but by taking this 3 I believe in my simple model he made a slightly wrong decision.

Some act like this is some major thing, it's not it is minor and probably not even easy to correctly prove he was wrong.

[carnageta]

Meh, probably should have went for the guaranteed 2 in that situation. Spo and co. will have a talk with Tyler and he'll learn and grow from it. Not concerned at all about the decision, Herro has effectively handled adversity for many years now and has responded positively every time.

[oreon]

Meh, probably should have went for the guaranteed 2 in that situation. Spo and co. will have a talk with Tyler and he'll learn and grow from it. Not concerned at all about the decision, Herro has effectively handled adversity for many years now and has responded positively every time.

Exactly. It was dumb. But long term it doesn't matter. And overall Herro had a really good season. He made a jump. And the bounce back to end the season leads me to believe he can make another jump. He's still isn't in his prime yet. And in saying all that it's okay for fans to want to trade him because we don't want to give that 50 mil year extension. I wouldn't at this moment and probably be on the side to trade him depending on the return. Heat fans don't need to take every opportunity beat him down to give reasons to trade him. He's a heat player and people should recognize the progress he made. And I get it, unlike Bam who pretty consistent, Herro mistakes can be glaring at times. But this season was a huge positive for him.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

If my posts are going to be deleted posters who post about me need to have theirs deleted as well, I’m just posting in response to the dumb **** I’m reading taking shots at me

[unowen85]

If your best player wants to shoot an open 3 on a breakaway because he thinks it’s the best shot to give the team a better shot at winning, you let him take it.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Scorer***

[eddieheatfan]

The team at this rate is gonna turn Tobin into an alchy

Watch on YouTube