J. Smith is a free agent this year not next year.
By rule, whatever restricted guys don't sign multi-year deals this year will be unrestricted free agents next year. That's the whole point of this thread.
I listed I think 10 impact guys who are in that position this year, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a couple of them not being able to come to terms with their cheap-ass teams, thus being unrestricted when we have max cap space in 12 months.
As for your point about Bosh, yes I'd like to have Bosh in 2010 too. But if I'm sitting there in 2009 with max cap space and someone like Josh Smith is there for the taking, then I call him at the stroke of midnight and he wants to come to Miami and take what we have to offer, why should I pass on that 100% commitment from him to wait
another year for like a 10% chance at Bosh? That would be a big mistake, IMO.
That's like when we had cap space for Brand/Odom in 2003, should we have said "No, let's just wait. We'll have even more cap space next year when Kobe Bryant's a free agent, so let's wait and roll the dice on him." Of course not. If Brand or Odom says they'll sign with you RIGHT NOW, you take that 100% commitment rather than wait another year for a 10% chance at Kobe. That's exacty what Riley did in 2003 fortunately, and will do again if presented the same decision in 2009.
As far as Riley saying "we need to protect our backside for 2010" ... it's pretty obvious to me that means we're not going to take any more Banks-like contracts that will tie up the cap that summer JUST IN CASE WADE LEAVES and we need to use his resulting space to rebuild. In other words, don't take on any bad contracts and *assume* you'll just go over the cap to re-sign Wade in 2010 ... You need to protect your backside in case he leaves, and if he does you need to have that $15 mill available to get someone else. Which you would have regardless of whether you got a big FA in 2009.
The phrase "protecting your backside in 2010" doesn't mean we're going to sit out free agency for the next two years. It just means if Wade decides to leave, we need to make sure we are $15 mill under the cap to replace him, which again we would be even if we maxed out someone in 2009. We'd have Beasley+2009max guy + a few scrubs, leaving plenty of space to replace Wade if he left.
I dunno, I guess we'll see how things play out. If Riley had no interest in a 2009 free agent, this thread wouldn't exist in the first place. The point of it was to look at other possible 2009 free agents beside Brand/Boozer, who Riley is rumored to be very interested in. If he had no interest in anyone until 2010, Brand and Bozer wouldn't even be in the equation to begin with.