Slump or Deep Trouble? Does history have an answer?

[Apollo]

After an ugly lose to the Oklahoma City Thunder, the talk about whether or not we watched a potential finals match up has shifted to talk about whether Miami is a potential Eastern Conference Finals contender. People have sighted Lebron's statistical dip, 3-point woes, and more than anything else Miami's ability to step up for big games. However, similarities and eventual outcomes from the same point in the season last year may give an answer to what type of trouble Heat fans may be in.

While it is always impossible to predict the future, Miami's big 3 were in a similar place last year. So what does history suggest? Is it a slump or a deeper issue?

Taking a look at the standings and power rankings:
Miami currently sits below the Thunder and Bulls in the playoff standings and power rankings with the inclusion of the Spurs. One could make a pretty good guess at who they sat behind last year at this same time. The answer? All three of the same teams with the addition of the Lakers. The eventual championship Mavericks sat at #6 right below the Heat with predictions of a first round exit due to their inability to get up for the playoffs.

It is hard to argue against bad habits in the regular season having an impact in the playoffs. However, except for a few missteps and bruises the Heat have looked better at their best this year than the year prior. Miami is also no longer a young team. The big 3 are all veterans who have been to the playoffs with just about every seed possible. They are not playing for the regular season record, especially at such a frantic pace, and it seems quite obvious that they know this. Wade, especially, is known to coast until it matters most. And by the way, two years ago to this week the eventual championship Lakers lost in OKC marking a loss to every Western playoff opponent (their finals opponent sat at #9).

So is it okay to worry about an ugly loss to the Bulls and Thunder? Of course, but it also wouldn't be wise to make any predictions because of them. The Heat did not play an inspired or crisp game in either which doesn't allow one to make a true prediction about how both teams will play when everyone on the floor is running at 100%. It is also important to not forget that the goal of a team is to peak as late as possible in the season, just ask the Mavs. A team that tries to maintain near 100% (similar to the Bulls) may have problems when its time to go to the next level and they are already maxed out, look at the Spurs and Bulls from last season.

Trust that Spoelstra and the players know that their performance last night will not cut it in the playoffs and that Pat Riley is always ready to make a move (a vet point guard like Anthony Carter?). You can also be sure that they will strive to be completely healthy for the playoffs even if it means taking the #2 seed as evidenced by Wade's time off resting early ankle issues.

(Take a look at this week's records and rankings: http://www.nba.com/powerrankings/?ls=iref:nbahpt1 and last year's http://www.nba.com/2011/news/powerranki ... index.html )

[pirate_pr]

I agree i think we can pull it together we are a veteran team but we cannot keep stumbling on same stones so we will not have last years outcome. Defensively if we get back to what we do we should have no problem. I think the Eastern Conference Finals would be our toughest test against Chicago assuming both teams healthy. If we make it to Finals i think we have edge on Thunder or who ever comes out of West defensively but like last year the BIG difference will be the play of our BIGS and that we can win the paint/half court.

[Apollo]

Getting back to a stifling defense will be key. This team can play that type of defense, but hasn't always had the effort like last night. Despite a very poor shooting night the game would have been much closer if Miami would have turned up the defense and taken away even a few of the uncontested dunks they gave away (which was just about the difference in the game). The effort will have to be there and I am sure it will for the playoffs. The coaches know and they will definitely urge to players to get to that point before it becomes all of nothing. They also need to work in Turiaf a little more, but he looks promising.

Execution is a bigger area of concern for me at this point. That is something that must be rehearsed, it is not just capability and effort.

[pirate_pr]

Getting back to a stifling defense will be key. This team can play that type of defense, but hasn't always had the effort like last night. Despite a very poor shooting night the game would have been much closer if Miami would have turned up the defense and taken away even a few of the uncontested dunks they gave away (which was just about the difference in the game). The effort will have to be there and I am sure it will for the playoffs. The coaches know and they will definitely urge to players to get to that point before it becomes all of nothing. They also need to work in Turiaf a little more, but he looks promising.

Execution is a bigger area of concern for me at this point. That is something that must be rehearsed, it is not just capability and effort.

Exactly its about being consistent on both ends especially our bread and butter DEFENSE we need to break the bad habit giving up leads late in games also having very slow starts. Bosh to me i think will be the x factor in playoffs he needs to DOMINATE the paint one way or the other play extremely hard on both ends. LeBron also needs to keep his end of the bargain especially in 4th quarters. Coach Spo needs to make right adjustments before he gets out coached again. WE NEED TO WIN THE PAINT/HALF COURT THATS WHAT CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS DO.

[dolphinatik]

not a slump, not deep trouble just the same trouble we have been facing the past few years. A stubborn front office, coach and system that refuses to change. Like a said when a Team wants to beat us they let their stars rely on everyone else to win the game. When we want to win a game everyone else relies on our stars. We are one dimensional and have even narrower tunnel vision at the end of tight games. At our talent level we should be blowing teams out nightly. Why isnt this happening? Anyone surprised by the outcome of the OKC game isnt a Heat fan or has not been following them closely.

Heat need to seriously commit to getting everyone else involved in the game besides Wade and Lebron. I will keep Bosh out of the equation. Less robotic substitutions and giving what bigs we have a chance to be effective on offense and defense. On offense get the igs good looks down low and on defense remove the silly responsibility of making bigs cover the baseline 3pt line. Its silly; sure all the movement looks nice but it just takes us out of position.

Turiaf is a forward and should be treated as such. I like him because he plays bigger than he is and he is aggressive on both ends (in before Heat culture saps that from him). Get Pittman and Curry legit minutes who cares if they foul out since we dont use them anyway. We are at a disadvantage because we refuse to make drastic changes. And if we say we will turn it up in the playoffs then our cockiness will be our doom. There is no excuse why the Heat should lose to OKC and we knew the game was coming if we cant be more prepared for that then there has to be some changes.

[pirate_pr]

not a slump, not deep trouble just the same trouble we have been facing the past few years. A stubborn front office, coach and system that refuses to change. Like a said when a Team wants to beat us they let their stars rely on everyone else to win the game. When we want to win a game everyone else relies on our stars. We are one dimensional and have even narrower tunnel vision at the end of tight games. At our talent level we should be blowing teams out nightly. Why isnt this happening? Anyone surprised by the outcome of the OKC game isnt a Heat fan or has not been following them closely.

Heat need to seriously commit to getting everyone else involved in the game besides Wade and Lebron. I will keep Bosh out of the equation. Less robotic substitutions and giving what bigs we have a chance to be effective on offense and defense. On offense get the igs good looks down low and on defense remove the silly responsibility of making bigs cover the baseline 3pt line. Its silly; sure all the movement looks nice but it just takes us out of position.

Turiaf is a forward and should be treated as such. I like him because he plays bigger than he is and he is aggressive on both ends (in before Heat culture saps that from him). Get Pittman and Curry legit minutes who cares if they foul out since we dont use them anyway. We are at a disadvantage because we refuse to make drastic changes. And if we say we will turn it up in the playoffs then our cockiness will be our doom. There is no excuse why the Heat should lose to OKC and we knew the game was coming if we cant be more prepared for that then there has to be some changes.

I agree HEAT NATION LETS WAKE UP TO REALITY AND GET IT DONE!

[WD]

not a slump, not deep trouble just the same trouble we have been facing the past few years. A stubborn front office, coach and system that refuses to change. Like a said when a Team wants to beat us they let their stars rely on everyone else to win the game. When we want to win a game everyone else relies on our stars. We are one dimensional and have even narrower tunnel vision at the end of tight games. At our talent level we should be blowing teams out nightly. Why isnt this happening? Anyone surprised by the outcome of the OKC game isnt a Heat fan or has not been following them closely.

Heat need to seriously commit to getting everyone else involved in the game besides Wade and Lebron. I will keep Bosh out of the equation. Less robotic substitutions and giving what bigs we have a chance to be effective on offense and defense. On offense get the igs good looks down low and on defense remove the silly responsibility of making bigs cover the baseline 3pt line. Its silly; sure all the movement looks nice but it just takes us out of position.

Turiaf is a forward and should be treated as such. I like him because he plays bigger than he is and he is aggressive on both ends (in before Heat culture saps that from him). Get Pittman and Curry legit minutes who cares if they foul out since we dont use them anyway. We are at a disadvantage because we refuse to make drastic changes. And if we say we will turn it up in the playoffs then our cockiness will be our doom. There is no excuse why the Heat should lose to OKC and we knew the game was coming if we cant be more prepared for that then there has to be some changes.

You sound like a basketball fan and I agree with your comments, I have said similar things over the last few years. What hasn't changed over the last 3 years?

What also makes me laugh is that "when we lose a game like last night, some fans say "it's just a regular season game" but when we blow teams out, those same fans jump up and down like kids. If it doesn't matter if we lose to teams we should compete against but lose, it shouldn't matter if we win.

I am preaching to the choir and wonder sometimes why I even take the time to post, but as a basketball fan first, I love the game, the city of Miami, and The Miami Heat.

[Akshan]

ONLY TIME WILL TELL I DON'T GET WHY OUR DEFENSE HAS BECOME SUCH ASS and we why don't show up for these big games we need to be competitive although I am not much of a regular season person because it doesn't outcome anything especially since last year we got swept in the regular season by Chicago and than won in 5 games in the playoffs.

[El Alonzo scowl]

Simply put, right now our defense is broken. Our point guards went from assets to liablities. Chris Bosh is playing awful on both ends of the court. LeBron isn't playing at his best and has a banged up elbow. Mike Miller is out and we have no 3 point game as a result. We are turning it over at a ridiculous rate.
The only positives are UD's jumper is coming back and Wade is in midseason form. We have multiple problems going on. We have one month to right the ship before playoffs start.

[DefenseWins]

their defense isn't the same I agree. They aren't getting the stops they need, and they aren't getting out in transition. Are they really holding their energy? Like wtf is this team doing? Are they even rebelling against Spo? LOL I have no clue what is up with this team.

[Moggs24]

Simply put, right now our defense is broken. Our point guards went from assets to liablities. Chris Bosh is playing awful on both ends of the court. LeBron isn't playing at his best and has a banged up elbow. Mike Miller is out and we have no 3 point game as a result. We are turning it over at a ridiculous rate.
The only positives are UD's jumper is coming back and Wade is in midseason form. We have multiple problems going on. We have one month to right the ship before playoffs start.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Only thing I want to add is what the hell is up with Bron. I have a feel for wade and can tell if he is interested or not, but I have never seen bron this out of it. He is usually all over the court and since that game where he had to go to the locker room to get stretched he has been a shell of himself. If he is not doing the things he usually does the D is basically terrible.

[EscapoTHB]

I think more than anything the turnovers and lack of effort finishing defensive possessions are what is killing us. The whole team except Haslem are playing like idiots.

It's not a coaching thing either. Guys just look gassed and not focused. When we get our second wind we'll be right as rain.

I don't see anything about what we're doing that worries me for the playoffs though. Just annoying to watch it now and waste your time as a fan when it's clear the guys don't really give a crap right now.

[Voice_of_Reason]

11 out of next 16 games at home. Get some home cooking, added rest without the need to travel. Nothing to worry about.