Miami Heat xRAPM numbers for 2012-2013

homecourtloss · Post #1 » by **homecourtloss** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:32 am

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/MIA.html

Interesting notes:

--Bosh had a negative offensive RAPM
--Birdman had the highest (by far) defensive RAPM on the team, and the 7th highest in the league
--Cole had the second worst RAPM out of any player in the league (470 out of 471; only Ben Gordon had a lower RAPM)
--Rio's defensive RAPm was nearly 3.5 above Cole's
--Haslem had the team's lowest offensive RAPM

xMADEinDADEx · Post #2 » by **xMADEinDADEx** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:09 am

About time they put the RAPM for this year up.

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xMADEinDADEx · Post #3 » by **xMADEinDADEx** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:17 am

Kobe with a negative defensive rapm

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Laazard · Post #4 » by **Laazard** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:45 pm

Box score RAPM = crap. Don't assume much out of this folks.

lorak · Post #5 » by **lorak** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:52 pm

kingjames623 wrote:http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/MIA.html

Interesting notes:

--Bosh had a negative offensive RAPM
--Birdman had the highest (by far) defensive RAPM on the team, and the 7th highest in the league
--Cole had the second worst RAPM out of any player in the league (470 out of 471; only Ben Gordon had a lower RAPM)
--Rio's defensive RAPm was nearly 3.5 above Cole's
--Haslem had the team's lowest offensive RAPM

The data you linked isn't RAPM but xRAPM,

RAPM - data is based on play by play, so +/- stuff
xRAPM - data is based on box score and +/- and height (!)

xRAPM gives better predictions than RAPM, but is worse at explaining the past - for example because of height factor all bigs seems better defensively than they are in reality (because xRAPM assumes that if you are big then you are good on defense). Besides box score factor also is a reason why bigs are overrated in xRAPM, because xRAPM "thinks" than the more defensive rebounds you have the better defender you are - and in reality that's not always true (and that's why guys like Boozer or Al Jefferson or McGee looks much better in xRAPM than in real RAPM).

JLei · Post #6 » by **JLei** » Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:10 pm

DavidStern wrote:
kingjames623 wrote:http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/MIA.html

Interesting notes:

--Bosh had a negative offensive RAPM
--Birdman had the highest (by far) defensive RAPM on the team, and the 7th highest in the league
--Cole had the second worst RAPM out of any player in the league (470 out of 471; only Ben Gordon had a lower RAPM)
--Rio's defensive RAPm was nearly 3.5 above Cole's
--Haslem had the team's lowest offensive RAPM

The data you linked isn't RAPM but xRAPM,

RAPM - data is based on play by play, so +/- stuff
xRAPM - data is based on box score and +/- and height (!)

xRAPM gives better predictions than RAPM, but is worse at explaining the past - for example because of height factor all bigs seems better defensively than they are in reality (because xRAPM assumes that if you are big then you are good on defense). Besides box score factor also is a reason why bigs are overrated in xRAPM, because xRAPM "thinks" than the more defensive rebounds you have the better defender you are - and in reality that's not always true (and that's why guys like Boozer or Al Jefferson or McGee looks much better in xRAPM than in real RAPM).

It does what most people would do anyways. Look at RAPM and +/- stuff and cross that with the advanced box score stuff like PER, WARP. Add a bunch of subjective arguments that you care about and tah dah player evaluation.

It by itself is not bad but you just have to understand what it is doing which you have very nicely pointed out. Mostly the defensive rebounding thing which gives a significant boost to guys like Boozer, Lee who in other defensive studies have been show to be pretty crappy defensive players.