Hindsight is 20/20

[Beenie]

Omg is this a thread where we can criticize Pat Riley without ppl taking it personal like he's their father??? Brb typing essay.

Anyway, my answer is what many people have already said and what everyone should be saying by now. We should have paid Wade. And we should have had a real plan to do something in the 2016 off season to remain contenders besides asking Wade to go recruit Durant with no deal on the table of his own. Besides that, some others:

Should have drafted Mayo not Beasley
Should have never ever ever given up picks for Dragic
Should have never maxed Chris Bosh
Should have never given Josh McRoberts

But many of these things aren't actually hindsight. Many people were calling for it while it was happening but were drowned out by 'Trust in Riley' Riley fans.

Calculate the Heat's record over the last 15 or so years excluding the Lebron years. Not a whole lot over .500 I would guess.
(And that includes all of Wade's years plus the Shaq/wade championship team/years of course.)

15/16 = 48-34 w
14/15 = 37-45 l
Lebron years
09/10 = 47-35 w
08/09 = 43-39 w
07/08 = 15-67 l
06/07 = 44-38 w
05/06 = 52-30 w
04/05 = 59-23 w
03/04 = 42-40 w
02/03 = 25-57 l
01/02 = 36-46 l
00/01 = 50-32 w
99/00 = 52-30 w
98/99 = 33-17 w
97/98 = 55-27 w

11 winning seasons and 4 losing ones.

[dancing2thabeet]

Not a lot of winnig seasons he would guess.

[MartyConlonJr]

Omg is this a thread where we can criticize Pat Riley without ppl taking it personal like he's their father??? Brb typing essay.

Anyway, my answer is what many people have already said and what everyone should be saying by now. We should have paid Wade. And we should have had a real plan to do something in the 2016 off season to remain contenders besides asking Wade to go recruit Durant with no deal on the table of his own. Besides that, some others:

Should have drafted Mayo not Beasley
Should have never ever ever given up picks for Dragic
Should have never maxed Chris Bosh
Should have never given Josh McRoberts

But many of these things aren't actually hindsight. Many people were calling for it while it was happening but were drowned out by 'Trust in Riley' Riley fans.

Calculate the Heat's record over the last 15 or so years excluding the Lebron years. Not a whole lot over .500 I would guess.
(And that includes all of Wade's years plus the Shaq/wade championship team/years of course.)

15/16 = 48-34 w
14/15 = 37-45 l
09/00 = 47-35 w
08/09 = 43-39 w
07/08 = 15-67 l
06/07 = 44-38 w
05/06 = 52-30 w
04/05 = 59-23 w
03/04 = 42-40 w
02/03 = 25-57 l
01/02 = 36-46 l
00/01 = 50-32 w
99/00 = 52-30 w
98/99 = 33-17 w
97/98 = 55-27 w

11 winning seasons and 4 losing ones.

Yeah, and the down seasons are from when Zo got sick, Bosh got sick and D-Wade and Shaq got injured. All were completely shockingly derailed seasons.

[Grumpy Heat Fan]

This thread isn't fair to Pat Riley. Riley built a good team that could have beaten the Cavaliers.

The problem was Chris Bosh's blood clots. For two straight years, we had a max contract sitting on the bench.

[jswede]

Omg is this a thread where we can criticize Pat Riley without ppl taking it personal like he's their father??? Brb typing essay.

Anyway, my answer is what many people have already said and what everyone should be saying by now. We should have paid Wade. And we should have had a real plan to do something in the 2016 off season to remain contenders besides asking Wade to go recruit Durant with no deal on the table of his own. Besides that, some others:

Should have drafted Mayo not Beasley
Should have never ever ever given up picks for Dragic
Should have never maxed Chris Bosh
Should have never given Josh McRoberts

But many of these things aren't actually hindsight. Many people were calling for it while it was happening but were drowned out by 'Trust in Riley' Riley fans.

Calculate the Heat's record over the last 15 or so years excluding the Lebron years. Not a whole lot over .500 I would guess.
(And that includes all of Wade's years plus the Shaq/wade championship team/years of course.)

15/16 = 48-34 w
14/15 = 37-45 l
Lebron years
09/10 = 47-35 w
08/09 = 43-39 w
07/08 = 15-67 l
06/07 = 44-38 w
05/06 = 52-30 w
04/05 = 59-23 w
03/04 = 42-40 w
02/03 = 25-57 l
01/02 = 36-46 l
00/01 = 50-32 w
99/00 = 52-30 w
98/99 = 33-17 w
97/98 = 55-27 w

11 winning seasons and 4 losing ones.

I was actually talking "last 15 years" meaning this century, excluding when he was gifted LeBron. Since 2001 season he's 448-454.

But yea, I agree - he sure was good in the late 90s.

[Beenie]

Calculate the Heat's record over the last 15 or so years excluding the Lebron years. Not a whole lot over .500 I would guess.
(And that includes all of Wade's years plus the Shaq/wade championship team/years of course.)

15/16 = 48-34 w
14/15 = 37-45 l
Lebron years
09/10 = 47-35 w
08/09 = 43-39 w
07/08 = 15-67 l
06/07 = 44-38 w
05/06 = 52-30 w
04/05 = 59-23 w
03/04 = 42-40 w
02/03 = 25-57 l
01/02 = 36-46 l
00/01 = 50-32 w
99/00 = 52-30 w
98/99 = 33-17 w
97/98 = 55-27 w

11 winning seasons and 4 losing ones.

I was actually talking "last 15 years" meaning this century, excluding when he was gifted LeBron. Since 2001 season he's 448-454.

But yea, I agree - he sure was good in the late 90s.

Since the 2001/2002 season, excluding the Lebron years, the Heat have had more winning seasons than losing ones (7-4). If you want to use their accumulative record to prove your point, we have to acknowledge that the numbers are pulled down by their 07/08 campaign in which they finished 15-67.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

I'm with those who point to the clots as the only true regret here.

Yeah, if we played it perfectly we could have kept Wade... and... then what? Make failed attempts at competing kind of like we did the last couple of seasons? In that alternate universe where Riley can magically foresee those blood clots and just maxes Wade and lets Bosh walk, its entirely plausible that we are so poor and Wade is carrying such a heavy load that he simply requests a trade to a contender. Its also possible that in this alternate universe, we don't luck out on Hassan and some other team catches him before us, that was a huge boon that is being ignored.

Truth is LeBron leaving effectively sealed our window shut for the next 5 years or so (about how much prime he had left when he left), and that's about all the effective years Wade would have had in him (he's playing near the level he did his last couple years with us, just much more confident with his 3-point shot which impacts all his efficiency numbers, he's actually been worse below the 3-point line). So assuming Wade accepts staying because of the money, we're looking at, at best, a couple more playoff runs like we had last season, MAYBE at best an ECF appearance, and at worst, a discontented Wade, no Hassan, no Justise, and less hope for the future.

I think if we step back and judge this as a whole, Riley did about as well as you could hope for coming off of Zo's kidney disease. Drafts an all-time great hall-of-famer, trades for another aging HOFer to pair with and gets a title (came close to 2), breaks team up when it shows signs it can't compete, immediately assembles arguably the greatest free agency haul of all time, gets 2 out of the next 4 (and had the opportunity to win 4), then LeBron ends it prematurely.

You can try to argue Riley should have laid down for LeBron in order to keep him, but you can't ignore whatever he didn't do to keep him, he DID do to get him to leave Cleveland in the first place. It is what it is.

Good run, now we join the majority of the rest of the NBA rooting for the chance to draft another superstar. Would be nice if we could do it before Hassan's run as a game changer ends, but more likely we'll end up trading Hassan to a contender in the next year or two, we'll see.

[Beenie]

This thread isn't fair to Pat Riley. Riley built a good team that could have beaten the Cavaliers.

The problem was Chris Bosh's blood clots. For two straight years, we had a max contract sitting on the bench.

Last year, prior to Bosh's season coming to an early end, Mia wasn't playing very well with him in the lineup. Bosh's chemistry with Dragic never really materialized the way the team had hoped it would nor did it with Whiteside. When Deng took over his PF position, the team elevated their overall performance and it was because he was a better stylistic fit for the uptempo pace the Dragic was setting. The truth is, Bosh playing isolation basketball at or around the top of the key - holding onto the rock for a 3rd of the shotclock or longer was killing the team's pace. If Im not mistaken, Mia was at or near the bottom of the league in FG attempts in the first half of last year. I realize that Bosh's value had a lot to do with his ability to guard multiple positions but, imo, that skill didn't outweigh that he was an offensive stylistic misfit.

[Beenie]

I'm with those who point to the clots as the only true regret here.

Yeah, if we played it perfectly we could have kept Wade... and... then what? Make failed attempts at competing kind of like we did the last couple of seasons? In that alternate universe where Riley can magically foresee those blood clots and just maxes Wade and lets Bosh walk, its entirely plausible that we are so poor and Wade is carrying such a heavy load that he simply requests a trade to a contender. Its also possible that in this alternate universe, we don't luck out on Hassan and some other team catches him before us, that was a huge boon that is being ignored.

Truth is LeBron leaving effectively sealed our window shut for the next 5 years or so (about how much prime he had left when he left), and that's about all the effective years Wade would have had in him (he's playing near the level he did his last couple years with us, just much more confident with his 3-point shot which impacts all his efficiency numbers, he's actually been worse below the 3-point line). So assuming Wade accepts staying because of the money, we're looking at, at best, a couple more playoff runs like we had last season, MAYBE at best an ECF appearance, and at worst, a discontented Wade, no Hassan, no Justise, and less hope for the future.

I think if we step back and judge this as a whole, Riley did about as well as you could hope for coming off of Zo's kidney disease. Drafts an all-time great hall-of-famer, trades for another aging HOFer to pair with and gets a title (came close to 2), breaks team up when it shows signs it can't compete, immediately assembles arguably the greatest free agency haul of all time, gets 2 out of the next 4 (and had the opportunity to win 4), then LeBron ends it prematurely.

You can try to argue Riley should have laid down for LeBron in order to keep him, but you can't ignore whatever he didn't do to keep him, he DID do to get him to leave Cleveland in the first place. It is what it is.

Good run, now we join the majority of the rest of the NBA rooting for the chance to draft another superstar. Would be nice if we could do it before Hassan's run as a game changer ends, but more likely we'll end up trading Hassan to a contender in the next year or two, we'll see.

*Refer to my above post for full context.

Perhaps the bigger regret than Bosh's health condition forcing him off the court was signing his to a max contract to begin with. (in pure basketball terms of course, not in terms of human level considerations which obviously outweigh strategic gamesmanship)

He stylistically was a misfit last year on offense.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

This thread isn't fair to Pat Riley. Riley built a good team that could have beaten the Cavaliers.

The problem was Chris Bosh's blood clots. For two straight years, we had a max contract sitting on the bench.

Last year, prior to Bosh's season coming to an early end, Mia wasn't playing very well with him in the lineup. Bosh's chemistry with Dragic never really materialized the way the team had hoped it would nor did it with Whiteside. When Deng took over his PF position, the team elevated their overall performance and it was because he was a better stylistic fit for the uptempo pace the Dragic was setting. The truth is, Bosh playing isolation basketball at or around the top of the key - holding onto the rock for a 3rd of the shotclock or longer was killing the team's pace. If Im not mistaken, Mia was at or near the bottom of the league in FG attempts in the first half of last year. I realize that Bosh's value had a lot to do with his ability to guard multiple positions but, imo, that skill didn't outweigh that he was an offensive stylistic misfit.

I agree there were issues but we're talking about different parts of 2 half seasons. I think he would have found his niche and the team as well, given time. Remember for the first 3/4 of the season of LeBron's return to Cleveland, everyone was saying he declined a lot and shouldn't have left Miami. Kyrie took a long time to find his place within that offense, and Kevin Love still looks out of place, yet they won a championship.

Bosh is a good enough player, I think given time, they all would have figured it out.

[Beenie]

This thread isn't fair to Pat Riley. Riley built a good team that could have beaten the Cavaliers.

The problem was Chris Bosh's blood clots. For two straight years, we had a max contract sitting on the bench.

Last year, prior to Bosh's season coming to an early end, Mia wasn't playing very well with him in the lineup. Bosh's chemistry with Dragic never really materialized the way the team had hoped it would nor did it with Whiteside. When Deng took over his PF position, the team elevated their overall performance and it was because he was a better stylistic fit for the uptempo pace the Dragic was setting. The truth is, Bosh playing isolation basketball at or around the top of the key - holding onto the rock for a 3rd of the shotclock or longer was killing the team's pace. If Im not mistaken, Mia was at or near the bottom of the league in FG attempts in the first half of last year. I realize that Bosh's value had a lot to do with his ability to guard multiple positions but, imo, that skill didn't outweigh that he was an offensive stylistic misfit.

I agree there were issues but we're talking about different parts of 2 half seasons. I think he would have found his niche and the team as well, given time. Remember for the first 3/4 of the season of LeBron's return to Cleveland, everyone was saying he declined a lot and shouldn't have left Miami. Kyrie took a long time to find his place within that offense, and Kevin Love still looks out of place, yet they won a championship.

Bosh is a good enough player, I think given time, they all would have figured it out.

At the time and even still today, I remain pessimistic about how Bosh's perimeter/isolation style of play matched with the rest of the team. Needless to say, my doubts are far greater than yours.