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Hindsight on 2015 Draft

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Grade Heat FO on 2015 Draft

A
4
57%
B
2
29%
C
0
No votes
D
0
No votes
F
1
14%
 
Total votes: 7

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Sgt P
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Hindsight on 2015 Draft 

Post#1 » by Sgt P » Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:35 pm

Happy Holidays Heat Fam!!!

Had some time and was catching up on our season. We are on an upswing now. I did not want my Heat basis to over credit Winslow so I got analytical. Below is a break down of the 2015 draft stats. Pretty much wanted to see how the draft class stacked up to each other since they will soon be off their rookie contracts. In Pat Heat trust ( bottom line). I took the stats from https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2015.html and sorted them by win share (WS), BPM (Box Score +/-) and last by minutes played (MP). Below is the ranking by those production stats.

Although Winslow ranks #21, he is trending upwards. In addition to J. Rich 2015 is only showing how well Heat FO is of making lemonade.


Here is the link to Google Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z64gMJAjylA7XLSEb2bWdbyECcdZPhuxPtRektPUe1Y/edit?usp=sharing

Code: Select all

Rank(D-Pos)   Player              MP      WS    BPM
1.(1)         Karl-Anthony Towns  48,754  38.1  4.4
2.(11)        Myles Turner        6,674   18.3  1
3.(32)        Montrezl Harrell    3,570   14.2  2.2
4.(27)        Larry Nance Jr.     4,947   14    1.9
5.(6)         Willie Cauley-Stein 7,568   13.1  0.2
6.(40)        Josh Richardson     6,496   12.2  0.8
7.(4)         Kristaps Porzingis  5,764   12.1  -0.1
8.(37)        Richaun Holmes      3,152   9.9   1.1
9.(9)         Frank Kaminsky      5,728   9.7   -1.2
10.(23)       Rondae H-Jefferson  5,048   8.6   -0.8
11.(16)       Terry Rozier        4,285   8.1   -0.5
12.(16)       Trey Lyles          4,570   7.6   -2.3
13.(20)       Delon Wright        2,641   7.3   1.7
14.(22)       Bobby Portis        3,965   7.3   -1.9
...
21.(10)       Justise Winslow     5,297   5.8   -1.1
28.(8)        Stanley Johnson     5,554   3.1   -2   
" Excellence is not an exception, it is a prevailing attitude." said C.P.
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Re: Hindsight on 2015 Draft 

Post#2 » by IggieCC » Tue Dec 25, 2018 12:08 am

I'm good with Winslow but if we had magic 8 ball Booker would have been more immediate help for what we needed among players we could have drafted.

All in all well done Pats, well done Sgt P.
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Re: Hindsight on 2015 Draft 

Post#3 » by ElDoggo » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:26 am

they were more than competent pics...

Adebayo is another good pick.

DJJ and McGruder are good starters / role players.

KO and JJ solid role players

TJ and Ellington can shoot the 3 ball fine as well as KO

heat have ammo. not a totally shatt roster
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Re: Hindsight on 2015 Draft 

Post#4 » by HeatFanLifer » Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:19 am

Solid analysis Sgt P. Good to see some statistics around here. I had no idea porzingis has played so few minutes, but it makes sense. Hoping to see Winslow climb up the latter in the coming months.


If possible, I would like to see some pie charts as well. And is Doctor P your brother? Which one is more accomplished in their career?
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Re: Hindsight on 2015 Draft 

Post#5 » by Sgt P » Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:46 am

HeatFanLifer wrote:Solid analysis Sgt P. Good to see some statistics around here. I had no idea porzingis has played so few minutes, but it makes sense. Hoping to see Winslow climb up the latter in the coming months.


If possible, I would like to see some pie charts as well. And is Doctor P your brother? Which one is more accomplished in their career?


Lol.. no relation. Sgt was my highest rank in USMC. I have a long French last name so in the Corps they would call me P.
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Re: Hindsight on 2015 Draft 

Post#6 » by RexBoyWonder » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:38 pm

Goofd stuff Sgt P.

Winslow hasn't been the most impressive the last couple of years, but I do wonder if we should look at those pick with a longer view - If he stays here for the next 6-10 years and becomes something a bit better then what he's been the last month or so - how many of those players ahead of him would really be as "Good" or contributing as much as him?

He's not that great so far, but honestly - there aren't a lot of names in that draft that I'm sure would have a bigger impact then him in the next 5 years. Probably only around 4 names that I really expect to be on an higher tier then him.
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Re: Hindsight on 2015 Draft 

Post#7 » by caliban » Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:00 pm

Good thread Sgt P.

The organisation made good picks in that draft no doubt. Nothing to sneeze at.

Three statistical point i'd like to ad even tho I'm sure most are familiar with them already

1) WS like WP are descriptive stats with high correlation to past wins. As such they heavily favor traditional bigman skills and are bad at explain what is driving future wins or say why a possession that ends with a Center dunking the ball was successful aka the creation of the basket. just stating an example. Enter BPM or later RPM which are predictive stats that have a much higher correlation to future wins or stronger correlation to what is driving winning basketball. The later is therefor (if no real nerd #'s are available) what I premierly would look at when ranking or pondering over a players future value.

2) When talking absolute value of a pick or a player one must also know the replacement level of that position which admittedly can be hard giving it's increased fluidity. What makes these two picks look even better is the fact that the replacement lvl is the lowest at the wing spots. This skill set is in highest demand due to every team needing at least! 5 rotation worthy players at the wing positions in today's league which means that just a competent player has positive trade value to a much greater extent than the other positions. If in doubt pick a wing.

3) I've also said many times contrary to what you may hear from random talking heads that wings has the longest age curve or they peek later than Guards and Centers. This is probably because it's the hardest position to master due to it's ever changing nature play to play.

Plz excuse my English. Not my native language and I dont have the energy to clean it up due to the holiday season.
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