Miami Heat Regular Season/Speculation Thread 2021 Part 3

[AirP.]

Maybe this will be the offseason the FO will prioritize building around Butler's window. There's still possibly 3-4 more years of near this level of play from him. Who knows, maybe Spoelstra can get him to work on his 3 to help his teammates' spacing.

#6 in PER 26.5 (.1 behind Curry)
#7 in VORP at 4.1
#5 in BPM at 7.5 (tied with LeBron)
#5 in WS at 8.9 (tied with Embiid)

#35 in usage at 26.6

People have this expectation, but Jimmy is already one of the oldest players among the top 40 scorers in the NBA. Like top 5 oldest. There are that few guys that old averaging even 18 points a game. It's not impossible that Jimmy may keep playing at this level for 3 or 4 more years, but it's highly unlikely. I'm expecting maybe 2 more years before the obvious signs of decline begin to appear.

Why is it highly unlikely? He keeps his body in tip top shape, his game is based on strength and IQ way more then his athletic ability. His type of game should age well into the mid 30s and if he can add a decent 3 ball could extend his prime even more. In the next couple of years Butler may have to limit himself on guarding smaller scorers to conserve energy.

For an example of a player who shouldn't age well in his 30s is a guy I was an advocate for acquiring, Oladipo. He's a guy who's game is built on his athletic ability and with that, I wouldn't feel comfortable seeing a healthy Oladipo getting more then a 3 year deal which would leave him at age 32 in his last year. He'll drop off from a probable 20ppg to just being a solid 3&D SG or SF till his mid 30s, like a smaller Ariza.

[contract]

Maybe this will be the offseason the FO will prioritize building around Butler's window. There's still possibly 3-4 more years of near this level of play from him. Who knows, maybe Spoelstra can get him to work on his 3 to help his teammates' spacing.

#6 in PER 26.5 (.1 behind Curry)
#7 in VORP at 4.1
#5 in BPM at 7.5 (tied with LeBron)
#5 in WS at 8.9 (tied with Embiid)

#35 in usage at 26.6

People have this expectation, but Jimmy is already one of the oldest players among the top 40 scorers in the NBA. Like top 5 oldest. There are that few guys that old averaging even 18 points a game. It's not impossible that Jimmy may keep playing at this level for 3 or 4 more years, but it's highly unlikely. I'm expecting maybe 2 more years before the obvious signs of decline begin to appear.

Why is it highly unlikely? He keeps his body in tip top shape, his game is based on strength and IQ way more then his athletic ability. His type of game should age well into the mid 30s and if he can add a decent 3 ball could extend his prime even more. In the next couple of years Butler may have to limit himself on guarding smaller scorers to conserve energy.

For an example of a player who shouldn't age well in his 30s is a guy I was an advocate for acquiring, Oladipo. He's a guy who's game is built on his athletic ability and with that, I wouldn't feel comfortable seeing a healthy Oladipo getting more then a 3 year deal which would leave him at age 32 in his last year. He'll drop off from a probable 20ppg to just being a solid 3&D SG or SF till his mid 30s, like a smaller Ariza.

Because it just is. I already pointed out how few player Jimmy's age and older are averaging even 18 points per game, and the senior statesman of that group is Curry at an ancient 33 years of age. The pounding starts taking its toll. Bodies start breaking down. Legs get tired and take longer to recover. Quickness starts abandoning them.

Lebron is a freak and is considered to be defying father time, and he's only 36 and has missed > 1/3 of the season.

It's hard to process because early 30s just doesn't seem old, but life comes at 99% of these guys fast once they get into the 32-34 year age range. For the other 1% it gets them a year or two after that.

Hopefully Jimmy is one of those exceptions, but we shouldn't be counting on it. Pat needs to go all in this next year.

[contract]

Maybe this will be the offseason the FO will prioritize building around Butler's window. There's still possibly 3-4 more years of near this level of play from him. Who knows, maybe Spoelstra can get him to work on his 3 to help his teammates' spacing.

#6 in PER 26.5 (.1 behind Curry)
#7 in VORP at 4.1
#5 in BPM at 7.5 (tied with LeBron)
#5 in WS at 8.9 (tied with Embiid)

#35 in usage at 26.6

People have this expectation, but Jimmy is already one of the oldest players among the top 40 scorers in the NBA. Like top 5 oldest. There are that few guys that old averaging even 18 points a game. It's not impossible that Jimmy may keep playing at this level for 3 or 4 more years, but it's highly unlikely. I'm expecting maybe 2 more years before the obvious signs of decline begin to appear.

...

For an example of a player who shouldn't age well in his 30s is a guy I was an advocate for acquiring, Oladipo. He's a guy who's game is built on his athletic ability and with that, I wouldn't feel comfortable seeing a healthy Oladipo getting more then a 3 year deal which would leave him at age 32 in his last year. He'll drop off from a probable 20ppg to just being a solid 3&D SG or SF till his mid 30s, like a smaller Ariza.

IMO Dipo's prime came and went due to injury and he just can't be relied on anymore. In fact that one really good year he had in Indy looks like the outlier at this point. I wouldn't be willing to give him more than fringe starter money, and that 3rd year would have to be a team option.

[gom]

I hope this hasn't been discussed yet. If it has, it's probably just my geezer dementia. Here is an analysis of the Heat season 2020-2021 from 4/29 when we were 33-30 (3-1 since then):

*You don't have to log on to read.*
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/miami-heat-nba-playoffs-finals-fluke-fade-eastern-conference-2021

I actually agree with a number of the points, but I feel that it commits an enormous judgment error by treating this short pandemic-infested season with the normalcy of average numbers. Butler has it right: No one knows which team will show up on any given night. The good team creates on offense, is able to shoot (eyeroll), and is very stingy on the defense. The worst can't get anything right. These feel like exceptions now, at least with our main players on the court.

I can't imagine any level of predictive confidence on how far our team will go, but some critics might be prudent not to discount our team's mettle. In my opinion, we still have that. Shooting eventually reverts to averages, but they control their destiny, and for what they did last season, they deserve respect.

In some ways our team is better than last season's team in the Finals. One is that not only is Bam healthier but he's had a dramatic improvement (3 pts more per game, more dominating). The writer mentions this:

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo continue to be high impact players but the supporting cast has regressed or disappeared altogether. The Heat are just 18th in eFG% (53.8%), but given the presence of Butler and Adebayo, this team is fourth in field goal percentage at the rim (67.8%), which is the only area of the floor in which this team is shooting above average.

Bam Adebayo can be vexingly inconstant, but this season's version is even more dangerous than last's. Butler too is having an amazing season. Those two guys really are enough, and they are fit, but the "supporting cast" have quality players, even some with Finals experience, because we just played in the Finals. (lol)

As to the point about Crowder, I am happy with Desmond and Ariza. By now, I'm pretty sure if we had signed Crowder, he would be our least popular player.

[gom]

Also, I'm pretty sure Oladipo plays if he can.

[BenoUdrihFTL]

Refuse to read anything involving "Heat" and "fluke"

The 2020 playoffs have been the closest thing we've seen to legit fair competition since the the pandemic started (it's actually the closest to level playing field pure competition in NBA history). If there's been any flukes or asterisks since league suspension then it would be the 2020 and 2021 regular seasons

[eddieheatfan]

i'm just amazed in how well ariza is playing in his role. i didnt expect him to play this good at all

[AirP.]

People have this expectation, but Jimmy is already one of the oldest players among the top 40 scorers in the NBA. Like top 5 oldest. There are that few guys that old averaging even 18 points a game. It's not impossible that Jimmy may keep playing at this level for 3 or 4 more years, but it's highly unlikely. I'm expecting maybe 2 more years before the obvious signs of decline begin to appear.

Why is it highly unlikely? He keeps his body in tip top shape, his game is based on strength and IQ way more then his athletic ability. His type of game should age well into the mid 30s and if he can add a decent 3 ball could extend his prime even more. In the next couple of years Butler may have to limit himself on guarding smaller scorers to conserve energy.

For an example of a player who shouldn't age well in his 30s is a guy I was an advocate for acquiring, Oladipo. He's a guy who's game is built on his athletic ability and with that, I wouldn't feel comfortable seeing a healthy Oladipo getting more then a 3 year deal which would leave him at age 32 in his last year. He'll drop off from a probable 20ppg to just being a solid 3&D SG or SF till his mid 30s, like a smaller Ariza.

Because it just is. I already pointed out how few player Jimmy's age and older are averaging even 18 points per game, and the senior statesman of that group is Curry at an ancient 33 years of age. The pounding starts taking its toll. Bodies start breaking down. Legs get tired and take longer to recover. Quickness starts abandoning them.

Lebron is a freak and is considered to be defying father time, and he's only 36 and has missed > 1/3 of the season.

It's hard to process because early 30s just doesn't seem old, but life comes at 99% of these guys fast once they get into the 32-34 year age range. For the other 1% it gets them a year or two after that.

Hopefully Jimmy is one of those exceptions, but we shouldn't be counting on it. Pat needs to go all in this next year.

Yes, life comes pretty fast to players who rely on their quickness and speed to get enough space to get a good shot, Butler has strength and IQ to keep playing bully ball for many more years. Also, a common trait of players who are good into their mid 30s usually take great care of their bodies which is something Butler takes pride in.

If Butler is still with the Heat in 3-4 years, I wouldn't be surprised if he's still their best player.

[Jfh20]

tyler herro is finding his shot just at the right time.... as we head into the playoffs...

[goodboys lats]

Google has us at the 4 seed. Is that right? For some reason I thought we were the 5?

[RRR3]

We’re 5th

[contract]

Honestly I'd rather play the Bucks in the 1st round. Giannis is our bitch!

[heater4life]

I came here to talk ball but I keep on getting bombarded with pop up CoVid vaccine ads. Sheesh!!!!

The Heat are great, I love em.

[gom]

Refuse to read anything involving "Heat" and "fluke"

I've actually enjoyed reading these takes. Call it precognitive schadenfreude or something. "That which we call a rose / By Any Other Name would smell as sweet.”

I'm happy to play the Bucks in a series, but we've never beaten the Hawks in a series, right? That would be nice. And if the gods of basketball give us a Heat-Knicks series (preferably with Heat HCA) OH BABY (in my best Tony Fiorentino voice.)

[HeatingUp3]

A match up VS Atlanta will be the best. or VS the good old Rivel Knicks. Even dou I confident we can beat the Bucks.

[oreon]

Honestly I'd rather play the Bucks in the 1st round. Giannis is our bitch!

We might beat them but chances are 0 % we beat Bucks then Nets and then Sixers to get finals. Hawks, Sixers and one of Bucks/Nets (after a long batterting series) is a plausible path to the finals.

[contract]

Honestly I'd rather play the Bucks in the 1st round. Giannis is our bitch!

We might beat them but chances are 0 % we beat Bucks then Nets and then Sixers to get finals. Hawks, Sixers and one of Bucks/Nets (after a long batterting series) is a plausible path to the finals.

I don't worry about that because I don't think this team has a prayer of getting to the finals this season. The eastern conference improved and we didn't. I'll be happy with getting back to the ECF. I'll settle for adding to Giannis' reputation for being a loser.

[contract]

I came here to talk ball but I keep on getting bombarded with pop up CoVid vaccine ads. Sheesh!!!!

The Heat are great, I love em.

Dude get a modern browser. Chrome, Firefox, and Edge, all block that stuff. If you're using an up to date browser and still get popups, you may have malware on your device.

[AirP.]

I caught the last bit of Ira on OnSide Radio today about this summer. He was mentioning that it might be in Miami's best interests to retain Oladipo and resign all of their contributors vs letting Oladipo and others cap holds go and trying to add a big free agents(I can understand letting everyone go to add Kawhi, not so much anyone else).

Also he mentioned that a future Oladipo contract could have a lot of triggers in it like games played into the contract so if he can't stay healthy Miami would have the ability to get out of the contract earlier which is something Philly did with Embiid's last contract.

[Umbooki]

So Oladipo is going under the knife, eh? I wonder what we’re gonna do about that situation?