Tyler Herro, James Harden, and the effect of foul calls on efficiency

[somerandomdude]

One of the knocks on Herro I see is that "he takes 18 shots to score 20 points."

This is a bad take that I wanted to address for a few reasons
* If you shoot 10 for 20, you will get 20pts on 20 shots, but that's 50% FG shooting, which is the optimal % to aim for. Is anyone seriously arguing against 50% shooting?
* In the same scenario above, if you reach the FT line, you could get about 25-30pts, which is what we want to see from Herro, but that's totally dependent on the officiating, which has been very biased against the Heat and Herro

The other thing I want to show is just how much getting a foul called can increase efficiency.

I went and looked up James Harden, a guy who lives off of foul calls, to show you just how bad he is if he were to get Tyler Herro FTAs (3.1). I also included 4 FTA games as to get a bigger sample size.



It's easy to see just how much foul calls have an impact on Harden's game and efficiency.

You could also compare these numbers to Herro's numbers if you want, aside from turnovers because Harden's usage is higher and he's the primary playmaker (or just divide by 2 to make it fair). If you do make this comparison, it's easy to see that Harden is a worse offensive player and far more inefficient than Herro when the FTAs are similar.

I hope you guys understand just how much getting a foul call and reaching the FT line can change the perception of just how efficient a player is.

If it needs explaining, when you get a foul call:
a) Turnovers and missed shots aren't recorded, eliminating inefficiencies
b) Made shots are recorded, which increases efficiency
c) If a shooting foul is called, it results in FTs, which are free points and improved efficiency

Herro skeptics need to appreciate just how good Herro is without having fouls called for him and imagine how much better he'll be if the refs ever do call a foul for him.

Laterz.

[RexBoyWonder]

I like Herro's game and think he's improving on the right path to hopefully be an Allstar in a year or 2, but i'm not sure what's the point you're trying to make.

It's a well known fact (for basketball heads such as ourselfs) that FT rate it a big factor within a player's scoring efficiency.

In fact FT per 36 is one of the main indicators that separate superstars from just ok players/scorers.

Getting to the line is a skill, an important one. It's just as important as 3 point % or A/TO ratio.

Generally speaking only the best players have he combined skillsets that allow them to average a high number of free throws per game. You usually need to have a good enough handle to drive, to be a good enough finisher to threaten the defense, the IQ to know when to finish and when to kick out, the physicality, the toughness, the understanding of momentum/angles, fakes etc.

Basically - Herro might be better then many players IF you ignore FT rate. But there's no reason to ignore it. Officiating might play a small part in the equation - but it's mainly about having the requires skills to draw enough fouls and get to the line consistently.

Herro is improving in that aspect also, but hopefully he gets even better at it with more reps, added strength and improved handle/finishing/decision making.

[Hallstar]

He got punished the last couple games with the calls while he was drawing like 5 or 6 per game for a good stretch before that. I don't know what happened. But yeah, getting to the line can save a bad shooting night. We know that with Wade lol

[Shewasfly]

I like Herro's game and think he's improving on the right path to hopefully be an Allstar in a year or 2, but i'm not sure what's the point you're trying to make.

It's a well known fact (for basketball heads such as ourselfs) that FT rate it a big factor within a player's scoring efficiency.

In fact FT per 36 is one of the main indicators that separate superstars from just ok players/scorers.

Getting to the line is a skill, an important one. It's just as important as 3 point % or A/TO ratio.

Generally speaking only the best players have he combined skillsets that allow them to average a high number of free throws per game. You usually need to have a good enough handle to drive, to be a good enough finisher to threaten the defense, the IQ to know when to finish and when to kick out, the physicality, the toughness, the understanding of momentum/angles, fakes etc.

Basically - Herro might be better then many players IF you ignore FT rate. But there's no reason to ignore it. Officiating might play a small part in the equation - but it's mainly about having the requires skills to draw enough fouls and get to the line consistently.

Herro is improving in that aspect also, but hopefully he gets even better at it with more reps, added strength and improved handle/finishing/decision making.

I don’t know if officiating is that small of a part. We can’t acknowledge that the refs have been screwing the Heat sans Jimmy badly this season on calls and then not factor that into why Tyler isn’t getting to the line as much as we’d like. Especially when most critique of Tyler is his efficiency, and a lack of trips to the line plays a huge part in why he’s not efficient by the numbers (which is what the OP is showing).

I personally don’t like the constant reliance on analytics these days while rejecting any context around them. There’s a few people on this board who do it constantly against Tyler and that’s probably partly where this thread is coming from. I personally think ppl with sense should just ignore it. We all know Tyler has plenty flaws, defense being at the top of the list Imo, but if you look at the unique situation we’ve been in with the roster all year combined with the lack of calls by the refs, the efficiency stuff is overblown for Tyler, at least so far. Plus let’s be real, some of the critiques are coming from those who in desperation **** on him to deflect from the deficiencies of their fave player. Not worth taking seriously.

I will say this. I like the way that Tyler responds to the lack of calls. For the most part, he just keeps playing. I hope he stays that way the rest of his career. I do NOT like the way Spo responds to the lack of calls for Tyler, or on any of the contact our guys take to be honest. He needs to stand up for them and demand respect from the referees.

[somerandomdude]

Basically - Herro might be better then many players IF you ignore FT rate. But there's no reason to ignore it. Officiating might play a small part in the equation - but it's mainly about having the requires skills to draw enough fouls and get to the line consistently.

It's at least half the equation.

For reference, Herro's Drives Per Game:

Pre-ASG: 11.8
Post-ASG: 13.4.

Is a diff of +1.6 drives the reason why he's reaching the FT line more Post-ASG? IMO, no. He's finally getting much deserved calls and his efficiency has shot up in part as a result of it (he's also been great at finishing and picking defenders apart).

Anyway, not getting calls for this long in his career may have been the best thing to happen to him. He's built his game on not relying on them and his efficiency is really benefiting from the calls he's finally getting.

[dshearn]

Basically - Herro might be better then many players IF you ignore FT rate. But there's no reason to ignore it. Officiating might play a small part in the equation - but it's mainly about having the requires skills to draw enough fouls and get to the line consistently.

It's at least half the equation.

For reference, Herro's Drives Per Game:

Pre-ASG: 11.8
Post-ASG: 13.4.

Is a diff of +1.6 drives the reason why he's reaching the FT line more Post-ASG? IMO, no. He's finally getting much deserved calls and his efficiency has shot up in part as a result of it (he's also been great at finishing and picking defenders apart).

Anyway, not getting calls for this long in his career may have been the best thing to happen to him. He's built his game on not relying on them and his efficiency is really benefiting from the calls he's finally getting.

Coudld not agree more!


I don't think you have to ignore FT rate. As it is Herro is a difference maker. It appears he can carry a QTR while the starters get rest with regularity today. That has value.

What is really in question, is since without FTs Herro is pretty effective, how good would he be when he develops an ability to get to the line.

We watched Herro take some stuff from Dragic, we have watched Herro take some stuff from Lowery....do we really think he is not watching Jimmy Butler?

I suspect Herro will find a way to get to the line as his game develops.

[abark]

Herro has been shooting just over 5 FTs per game since the all star break, as opposed to just over 3 before it.

And it’s not just random chance. He’s clearly adjusted his play style.

He’ll never be Harden, but he’s had over a 64% TS post AS break. It’s basically impossible he can keep that up, but his efficiency has been off the charts the last 12 games.

[BadMofoPimp]

Sounds like nit-picking just for the sake of trying to find something to be critical about. Herro has raised his PPG, 3P%, APG and FTA each season while becoming a force to be reckoned with on Offense. Dude is shooting 44% which is great while no SG ever reaches 50% FG% ever in this league, so just sit back and enjoy the process and progress! Hopefully, Herro makes a career in Miami and we can all enjoy years of great Basketball.

[somerandomdude]

Sounds like nit-picking just for the sake of trying to find something to be critical about. Herro has raised his PPG, 3P%, APG and FTA each season while becoming a force to be reckoned with on Offense. Dude is shooting 44% which is great while no SG ever reaches 50% FG% ever in this league, so just sit back and enjoy the process and progress! Hopefully, Herro makes a career in Miami and we can all enjoy years of great Basketball.

Which part? I've said a lot in this thread lol.

[rate_]

Herro has been shooting just over 5 FTs per game since the all star break, as opposed to just over 3 before it.

And it’s not just random chance. He’s clearly adjusted his play style.

He’ll never be Harden, but he’s had over a 64% TS post AS break. It’s basically impossible he can keep that up, but his efficiency has been off the charts the last 12 games.

His rise in TS% is due to his change in playstyle. Increase in both 3PAr and FTr, with less midrange. As long as he maintains the new playstyle I think his TS% in that span is sustainable.

[somerandomdude]

Herro has been shooting just over 5 FTs per game since the all star break, as opposed to just over 3 before it.

And it’s not just random chance. He’s clearly adjusted his play style.

He’ll never be Harden, but he’s had over a 64% TS post AS break. It’s basically impossible he can keep that up, but his efficiency has been off the charts the last 12 games.

If the refs wanted to, they could not call fouls for him and you'd still hold the belief that it's squarely on his shoulders.

Likewise, if he were averaging 8 FTAs from the start the season, you'd believe this guy was legitimately good at drawing fouls.

In either case, nothing could change.

Look at how much Embiid is getting to the line recently and quite a bit of it is questionable.



More food for thought: if a player knows the refs are calling fouls for them, they're more likely to keep attacking the basket, and the opposite is true if a player isn't getting calls.

[BadMofoPimp]

Sounds like nit-picking just for the sake of trying to find something to be critical about. Herro has raised his PPG, 3P%, APG and FTA each season while becoming a force to be reckoned with on Offense. Dude is shooting 44% which is great while no SG ever reaches 50% FG% ever in this league, so just sit back and enjoy the process and progress! Hopefully, Herro makes a career in Miami and we can all enjoy years of great Basketball.

Which part? I've said a lot in this thread lol.

I reckon the part about taking too many shots to get his points. Especially, at the rate of 3 pointers he does make does boost his points while he is shooting 44% considering his shooting percentage increased every year by at least a percent.

[DayofMourning]

Are we taking into account Herros post allstar game evolution? I'd like to see the games of Tyler's hot streak compared to those other guys. Could we get a glimpse of Tyler's hot streak vs those guys during the same time frame?

Tyler post break is an allstar btw. He's been phenomenal.

[RexBoyWonder]

Are we taking into account Herros post allstar game evolution? I'd like to see the games of Tyler's hot streak compared to those other guys. Could we get a glimpse of Tyler's hot streak vs those guys during the same time frame?

Tyler post break is an allstar btw. He's been phenomenal.

Agreed, the question becomes - is this level sustianabl for him.

Post Allstar Break :

25.4 PPG
He's shooting 55% on 2's,
47% on 3's,
just above 5 FT attempts per game on 85%,
29% usage,
2 to 1 A/TO rate
Almost a steal per game.

Breaking it down I believe it's mostly sustainable, but not completely. :

1) The 2's looks legit - he's just getting great looks, getting to the rim a ton.

2) The FT rate might go down a bit, but his current aggressive driving game gives you optimism he can eventually get to average around 4-6 FT a game. He's settling less.

3) He seems to easily handle the high usage, he also has the role to keep it and the energy and will to be the guy.

4) A/TO rate looks improved, he's just improving with his decision making it seems, which is expected with a high usage 22 YO.

5) steals uptake is nice, and while not being a good defender yet he does seem less bad on D lately. Which is also good, you can be alot more playable if you upgrade from a terrible defender to simply a adequate one.

6) 3 point shot is where it becomes unsustainable - the kid is just super hot from 3. He's a very good shooter but he's not that good. So expect him to go down to earth soon.

Good news is this - If I'm about right in this breakdown, you can still expect him to be a legit Allstar. He's currently at 66TS% post All-star, scoring 25.4 PPG.

Even if his 3 point shot goes down to earth, as long as the other stuff is legit - he'd still be an high volume scorer on above average efficiency - which is basically an offensive star and a legit 1st option going forward.

[BenoUdrihFTL]

Hah I just saw this thread after making a post in the RS thread about Herro's efficiency. I'll just copypasta here:

After the OKC game Herro finally reached league average TS% with a TS+ of 100. I posted a few weeks ago how Herro's efficiency has been solid this season outside a stretch in Dec/Jan when the team was ravaged by covid/injuries and he was basically playing a mid-2000s Kobe role having to carry the entire offense with very little support. Herro's TS% by month:

Oct: 57.0%
Nov: 55.8%
Dec: 51.7%
Jan: 49.2%
Feb: 63.0%
Mar: 66.1%

Season average: 56.1%
League average: 56.3%

There's no easy way to find it on Basketball Reference so I had to calculate it myself using their TS% formula, but here's Herro's scoring and efficiency if you exclude that rough stretch:

Outside of Dec and Jan, Herro is scoring 22.7 ppg on 60.2% TS (107 TS+) for the season

If you only just exclude Jan, Herro is scoring 21.6 ppg on 58.1% TS (103 TS+) for the season

So as long as he isn't being asked to single-handedly carry the offense, Herro has made the leap this season to becoming an efficient volume scorer. He's right up there with Butler (21.1 ppg on 58.0% TS) as our lead scorer despite the system not being built around him. I expect and understand why Spo will likely continue to bring him off the bench in the playoffs, but I really hope Spo has a quick trigger finger in terms of inserting Herro minutes into the 1st and 3rd quarters if our offense gets off to a turding start. Like the leash for Duncan should be extremely short at this point

Regarding the FTs, it definitely boosts efficiency but Herro has still been an efficient scorer even without spamming the stripe

Oct: 57.0% TS, 3.3 FTA
Nov: 55.8% TS, 2.3 FTA
Dec: 51.7% TS, 3.3 FTA
Jan: 49.2% TS, 3.6 FTA
Feb: 63.0% TS, 3.7 FTA
Mar: 66.1% TS, 5.1 FTA

I'd love to see him carry those 5+ attempts for Mar into the playoffs but won't be surprised if that doesn't happen. The foul drawing is something I think he can work on in the offseason, both in getting physically stronger and just developing the skill of drawing fouls

[DayofMourning]

Are we taking into account Herros post allstar game evolution? I'd like to see the games of Tyler's hot streak compared to those other guys. Could we get a glimpse of Tyler's hot streak vs those guys during the same time frame?

Tyler post break is an allstar btw. He's been phenomenal.

Agreed, the question becomes - is this level sustianabl for him.

Post Allstar Break :

25.4 PPG
He's shooting 55% on 2's,
47% on 3's,
just above 5 FT attempts per game on 85%,
29% usage,
2 to 1 A/TO rate
Almost a steal per game.

Breaking it down I believe it's mostly sustainable, but not completely. :

1) The 2's looks legit - he's just getting great looks, getting to the rim a ton.

2) The FT rate might go down a bit, but his current aggressive driving game gives you optimism he can eventually get to average around 4-6 FT a game. He's settling less.

3) He seems to easily handle the high usage, he also has the role to keep it and the energy and will to be the guy.

4) A/TO rate looks improved, he's just improving with his decision making it seems, which is expected with a high usage 22 YO.

5) steals uptake is nice, and while not being a good defender yet he does seem less bad on D lately. Which is also good, you can be alot more playable if you upgrade from a terrible defender to simply a adequate one.

6) 3 point shot is where it becomes unsustainable - the kid is just super hot from 3. He's a very good shooter but he's not that good. So expect him to go down to earth soon.

Good news is this - If I'm about right in this breakdown, you can still expect him to be a legit Allstar. He's currently at 66TS% post All-star, scoring 25.4 PPG.

Even if his 3 point shot goes down to earth, as long as the other stuff is legit - he'd still be an high volume scorer on above average efficiency - which is basically an offensive star and a legit 1st option going forward.

Tyler's got such a diverse bag on how he can score. He can score from anywhere. In the NBA, in order to be consistently effective, you have to pick your spots. I've seen Tyler getting to his spots a lot more recently. Watch where he takes his shots over the next several games. Those are his highest percentage spots on the floor and he will go to them consistently. The elbow three and the floater from mid paint are two of those.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

20 points on 18 shots isn’t anything special, im sure those numbers are different post all star though. 20 points on 29 shots isn’t very effective either. For example, we average 85 shots a game, in the 1 point period shot scenario that’s 85 PPG which is terrible.

His post ASB scoring and efficiency have been great, prior to that they were pretty mediocre. TS% is the true barometer of scoring efficiency over FG%