Miami Heat Regular Season/Speculation Thread 2021 Part 3

[contract]

Throw a max at John Collins

That means releasing cap holds, Atlanta matches and then Miami is even more screwed. Not a great move with 2 of the next 3 1st round Miami picks with other teams.

Aren't our cap holds basically Dragic and Iguodala? I understand wanting Dragic back but not Iguodala

Robinson and Nunn have really low cap holds. A little more than $2,000,000 each.

[contract]

If I'm a Heat fan, I'd feel the same. For Robinson to be at his best and to be worth a hefty 18-20 mil/year contract, he needs a special playmaker who can create clean looks for him. There's only a few of those guys in the league, Harden, LeBron, Luka, Trae Young, CP3, etc. Spoelstra does a great job finding Duncan looks off handoffs & designed plays, but it's not the same.

I'm hoping my Mavs can pry Robinson away, but if we didn't have Luka, I wouldn't want to pay a premium price for him. The Korver analogy is pretty spot on imo.

I can't imagine a scenario where Robinson is worth $18 million to $20 million a year. He's not going to be one of your 3 or 4 best players. Paying him that much is signing up to pay the luxury tax every year.

The Mavs have been paying THJ that much & most Mavs fans are in love with THJ. Duncan is a much better shooter than THJ, and they're comparable elsewhere.

I agree it's a lot of money, but teams set aside a lot of cap space for Giannis & other big name FAs this summer, and the FA pool is shallow. Some team is going to pay him. If it's 5 for 100 or something like that, it won't look too bad by year 4 with the cap continually going up.

The biggest difference between THJ and Robinson is that Robinson treats the area inside the 3 point line like it's a minefield. He averages 10 shots a game, and 8.5 of them are 3 pointers. He doesn't play basketball so much as he plays pop-a-shot. He's very efficient at what he does, but what he does is very limited.

[AirP.]

That means releasing cap holds, Atlanta matches and then Miami is even more screwed. Not a great move with 2 of the next 3 1st round Miami picks with other teams.

Aren't our cap holds basically Dragic and Iguodala? I understand wanting Dragic back but not Iguodala

Robinson and Nunn have really low cap holds. A little more than $2,000,000 each.

Yes, Robinson and Nunn have low cap holds, ~4.7 mil each.
Dragic and Iggy have team options of 19.4 and 15, Bird rights are 150% of their last year's salary.
Ariza is around 16.6
Oladipo's hold is 31.5.

Strus and Gabe are both around 1.5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap#Cap_holds

If not coming off a rookie scale contract, and salary was below the estimated average salary, 190% of previous salary.

Miami's 2021 plan was set up to basically clear the roster and add 1 top tier guy to Butler, Bam and Herro while also bringing back Robinson and possibly Nunn and going over the cap but that top tier FA isn't coming. Basically Miami has to bring nearly everyone back(minus Iggy and Bjelicia) and then make some trades. Dragic is still a good option off the bench, Oladipo could be better then nearly anyone they can get in FA. So you bring nearly everyone back and then do a trade with Herro and another young guy may be moved, maybe even doing a sign and trade for someone like L.Ball, Lowry, Markkanen or DeRozan. Don't think Beal or LaVine will be available.

If Oladipo can be a 2 way 20 ppg guy(not quite an all-nba player) and add another really good player like Ball, Lowry or DeRoazan, this team could be a real contender.

[Flash4thewin]

Aren't our cap holds basically Dragic and Iguodala? I understand wanting Dragic back but not Iguodala

Robinson and Nunn have really low cap holds. A little more than $2,000,000 each.

Yes, Robinson and Nunn have low cap holds, ~4.7 mil each.
Dragic and Iggy have team options of 19.4 and 15, Bird rights are 150% of their last year's salary.
Ariza is around 16.6
Oladipo's hold is 31.5.

Strus and Gabe are both around 1.5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap#Cap_holds

If not coming off a rookie scale contract, and salary was below the estimated average salary, 190% of previous salary.

Miami's 2021 plan was set up to basically clear the roster and add 1 top tier guy to Butler, Bam and Herro while also bringing back Robinson and possibly Nunn and going over the cap but that top tier FA isn't coming. Basically Miami has to bring nearly everyone back(minus Iggy and Bjelicia) and then make some trades. Dragic is still a good option off the bench, Oladipo could be better then nearly anyone they can get in FA. So you bring nearly everyone back and then do a trade with Herro and another young guy may be moved, maybe even doing a sign and trade for someone like L.Ball, Lowry, Markkanen or DeRozan. Don't think Beal or LaVine will be available.

If Oladipo can be a 2 way 20 ppg guy(not quite an all-nba player) and add another really good player like Ball, Lowry or DeRoazan, this team could be a real contender.

Im torn on Ball, he could get better but it will take more than a 20 mil offer to get him since he is restricted, so we would be looking at somewhere near 25 mil a year. To make a trade they will demand Herro which if we won't play him might not be a bad thing. I feel like we need size more than anything right now. Lowry wants 25 mil a year for two years which is less risky than Ball but he is also older. Then we need to resign Duncan who will also be in the 20 mil range. No clue what the right move is but I can see us taking the safe move with Lowry over Ball

The better question is, does Lowry make Butler happy? Is that enough for us to be a contender? Or will Butler just force his way out like he has done with the Wolves and 76ers?

[contract]

Yes, Robinson and Nunn have low cap holds, ~4.7 mil each.

That's substantially higher than I thought, but still low for players of their caliber.

Dragic and Iggy have team options of 19.4 and 15, Bird rights are 150% of their last year's salary.
Ariza is around 16.6
Oladipo's hold is 31.5.

Strus and Gabe are both around 1.5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap#Cap_holds

The rest of those is salary cap strategizing which is beyond my abilities. Just on a value for talent judgment + age and injuries, I'd relinquish all of them. But obviously that is not going to happen.

Miami's 2021 plan was set up to basically clear the roster and add 1 top tier guy to Butler, Bam and Herro while also bringing back Robinson and possibly Nunn and going over the cap but that top tier FA isn't coming. Basically Miami has to bring nearly everyone back(minus Iggy and Bjelicia) and then make some trades. Dragic is still a good option off the bench, Oladipo could be better then nearly anyone they can get in FA. So you bring nearly everyone back and then do a trade with Herro and another young guy may be moved, maybe even doing a sign and trade for someone like L.Ball, Lowry, Markkanen or DeRozan. Don't think Beal or LaVine will be available.

If Oladipo can be a 2 way 20 ppg guy(not quite an all-nba player) and add another really good player like Ball, Lowry or DeRoazan, this team could be a real contender.

That is a recipe for another year of indigestion. That's just not enough.

[Beenie]

Robinson and Nunn have really low cap holds. A little more than $2,000,000 each.

Yes, Robinson and Nunn have low cap holds, ~4.7 mil each.
Dragic and Iggy have team options of 19.4 and 15, Bird rights are 150% of their last year's salary.
Ariza is around 16.6
Oladipo's hold is 31.5.

Strus and Gabe are both around 1.5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap#Cap_holds

If not coming off a rookie scale contract, and salary was below the estimated average salary, 190% of previous salary.

Miami's 2021 plan was set up to basically clear the roster and add 1 top tier guy to Butler, Bam and Herro while also bringing back Robinson and possibly Nunn and going over the cap but that top tier FA isn't coming. Basically Miami has to bring nearly everyone back(minus Iggy and Bjelicia) and then make some trades. Dragic is still a good option off the bench, Oladipo could be better then nearly anyone they can get in FA. So you bring nearly everyone back and then do a trade with Herro and another young guy may be moved, maybe even doing a sign and trade for someone like L.Ball, Lowry, Markkanen or DeRozan. Don't think Beal or LaVine will be available.

If Oladipo can be a 2 way 20 ppg guy(not quite an all-nba player) and add another really good player like Ball, Lowry or DeRoazan, this team could be a real contender.

Im torn on Ball, he could get better but it will take more than a 20 mil offer to get him since he is restricted, so we would be looking at somewhere near 25 mil a year. To make a trade they will demand Herro which if we won't play him might not be a bad thing. I feel like we need size more than anything right now. Lowry wants 25 mil a year for two years which is less risky than Ball but he is also older. Then we need to resign Duncan who will also be in the 20 mil range. No clue what the right move is but I can see us taking the safe move with Lowry over Ball.

I'm a Lonzo proponent.

His handling and passing will do wonders for Bam.

He will command a contract under the max which in the modern NBA equates to a valued contract - considering his age and upside.

The PG market however will be rampant and Mia should definitely probe all of the options.

[Grumpy Heat Fan]

Do you guys remember the time, before this season started, that I made a thread saying we need to trade Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson while their value was in the clouds, before their value falls back down to earth after that cinderella run. But the Heat FO was highly valuing Herro and refusing to move them ASAP. And then I said the Heat would be an early round exit in the playoffs and I was 100% sure they would not return to the Finals if we don't make these trades?

Pepperidge farm remembers.

[contract]

Do you guys remember the time, before this season started, that I made a thread saying we need to trade Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson while their value was in the clouds, before their value falls back down to earth after that cinderella run. But the Heat FO was highly valuing Herro and refusing to move them ASAP. And then I said the Heat would be an early round exit in the playoffs and I was 100% sure they would not return to the Finals if we don't make these trades?

Pepperidge farm remembers.

Unfortunately 1 year of Butler's remaining prime is now gone. We better not waste the next one.

[twix2500]

How is Iggy, Ariza and Dragic worth 18 mill per but not Duncan?

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[Beenie]

Dinwiddie is a guy I'm high on.

Brogdon also could get moved and he'd be a great fit.

Russell I suspect might also be put on the block depending on what happens with Minny's draft pick.

[contract]

How is Iggy, Ariza and Dragic worth 18 mill per but not Duncan?

You mean combined? They're not.

Iggy and Ariza need to head off to The Villages, and Dragic needs to accept a drastic pay cut.

[Flash4thewin]

How is Iggy, Ariza and Dragic worth 18 mill per but not Duncan?

You mean combined? They're not.

Iggy and Ariza need to head off to The Villages, and Dragic needs to accept a drastic pay cut.

Dragic is the only one who has shown up both games so far scoring over 20 point. I can see a little discount but nothing drastic or he goes to another team.

[AirP.]

Dragic and Iggy have team options of 19.4 and 15, Bird rights are 150% of their last year's salary.
Ariza is around 16.6
Oladipo's hold is 31.5.

Strus and Gabe are both around 1.5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap#Cap_holds

The rest of those is salary cap strategizing which is beyond my abilities. Just on a value for talent judgment + age and injuries, I'd relinquish all of them. But obviously that is not going to happen.

If you let them go, you're not getting better nor are you getting a good enough talent to build towards a championship contender.

Miami's 2021 plan was set up to basically clear the roster and add 1 top tier guy to Butler, Bam and Herro while also bringing back Robinson and possibly Nunn and going over the cap but that top tier FA isn't coming. Basically Miami has to bring nearly everyone back(minus Iggy and Bjelicia) and then make some trades. Dragic is still a good option off the bench, Oladipo could be better then nearly anyone they can get in FA. So you bring nearly everyone back and then do a trade with Herro and another young guy may be moved, maybe even doing a sign and trade for someone like L.Ball, Lowry, Markkanen or DeRozan. Don't think Beal or LaVine will be available.

If Oladipo can be a 2 way 20 ppg guy(not quite an all-nba player) and add another really good player like Ball, Lowry or DeRoazan, this team could be a real contender.

That is a recipe for another year of indigestion. That's just not enough.

What is the alternative other than to be bad for the next half decade or more. Just saying no bringing them back doesn't magically bring good young players to the roster. Butler's maxed, Bam's maxed, Robinson is going to get paid, there's not a lot of wiggle room to do anything after this summer unless you're moving Bam or Butler, possibly Oladipo if he comes back healthy.

If you're running out Oladipo, Butler, Robinson, <some stretch 4>, and Bam that's a good team, you work on developing players and hope to be in the position to make a trade for another difference maker or hope to find/develop another good player.

[Grumpy Heat Fan]

Do you guys remember the time, before this season started, that I made a thread saying we need to trade Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson while their value was in the clouds, before their value falls back down to earth after that cinderella run. But the Heat FO was highly valuing Herro and refusing to move them ASAP. And then I said the Heat would be an early round exit in the playoffs and I was 100% sure they would not return to the Finals if we don't make these trades?

Pepperidge farm remembers.

Unfortunately 1 year of Butler's remaining prime is now gone. We better not waste the next one.

This is true. Butler will be 33?? next season. Time is running out. The real question is, do we give him a big contract that extends into his mid to late 30s.

Sigh. Perhaps we should have beaten Brooklyn's offer for James Harden, no matter the cost. Pairing Jimmy's defense and unselfishness, with Harden's offensive firepower would have been a perfect fit. Would have guaranteed a Finals trip for the next 2-3 years, with a possibility of a ring or two depending on how well we round out the roster.


As it is now... I don't know what we can do at this point to get out of the East. Maybe Bradley Beal? But do we even have the assets to make it work anymore. Beal would be nice.

But even if we were to get Beal and round out the roster around him, Bam, and Jimmy.... the East belongs to the Nets if they can get their act together. Harden, KD and Kyrie lol. I doubt I could get those trades to work on NBA 2k unless I turn Force Trades on.

[Rapaz]

Much like DWade's assignment in Chicago with Jimmy Butler, Derrick Jones Jr. was sent to Portland to plant seeds in Damian Lillard's mind.

Don't be surprised if Lillard requests a trade to Mia . . . Yeah, right.

[contract]

How is Iggy, Ariza and Dragic worth 18 mill per but not Duncan?

You mean combined? They're not.

Iggy and Ariza need to head off to The Villages, and Dragic needs to accept a drastic pay cut.

Dragic is the only one who has shown up both games so far scoring over 20 point. I can see a little discount but nothing drastic or he goes to another team.

Yes but the rest of the season counts too, and he's breaking down more and more. I'd love to keep him because when he's healthy he's still our 3rd best player, but that's like half the time now, and he's only going to get older and more broken down.

[_GH0ST_]

It is said that Cleveland wants to team up around Garland and does not think of Sexton. Herro and Sexton based trade.. Interesting idea.. Maybe Dragic and Love can be added to the trade.

[Hallstar]

Do you guys remember the time, before this season started, that I made a thread saying we need to trade Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson while their value was in the clouds, before their value falls back down to earth after that cinderella run. But the Heat FO was highly valuing Herro and refusing to move them ASAP. And then I said the Heat would be an early round exit in the playoffs and I was 100% sure they would not return to the Finals if we don't make these trades?

Pepperidge farm remembers.

Unfortunately 1 year of Butler's remaining prime is now gone. We better not waste the next one.

problem is if he's gonna be giving us 10 pts in a playoff game, then what exactly are we wasting going forward?

[contract]

If you let them go, you're not getting better nor are you getting a good enough talent to build towards a championship contender.

That's true, but we don't have a contender with them. I don't like carrying garbage on our cap. I don't want to have to pay someone to haul it away.

What is the alternative other than to be bad for the next half decade or more. Just saying no bringing them back doesn't magically bring good young players to the roster. Butler's maxed, Bam's maxed, Robinson is going to get paid, there's not a lot of wiggle room to do anything after this summer unless you're moving Bam or Butler, possibly Oladipo if he comes back healthy.

If you're running out Oladipo, Butler, Robinson, <some stretch 4>, and Bam that's a good team, you work on developing players and hope to be in the position to make a trade for another difference maker or hope to find/develop another good player.

We're simply going to have to overpay for a proven player. Winning a trade doesn't matter. Winning a championship does. Jimmy is the best player we've had here since LeBron split. Wasting him would be negligent because there's no telling when another player that good will come here. Splitting hairs over compensation for a proven vet (but not an ancient vet) doesn't make any sense. Every single player on this team with the exception of Jimmy, Bam, and Dragic on a good healthy day, is readily replaceable. And the only one who still needs to be here next year is Jimmy. That means package every damn body with positive value and every pick available, get the best veteran you can, and go from there.

Paying Robinson would be foolish. Spending another year of Jimmy's prime hoping Oladipo turns back into what he was that one year would be insane.

The real problem is Pat. He doesn't seem to feel any urgency.

[contract]

Much like DWade's assignment in Chicago with Jimmy Butler, Derrick Jones Jr. was sent to Portland to plant seeds in Damian Lillard's mind.

Don't be surprised if Lillard requests a trade to Mia . . . Yeah, right.

Spoiler:

I'm hopeful. But if not him, we have to get Jimmy some help. Praying for players to develop or become more aggressive is not a plan.