2025 Regular/Offseason Season Thread Vol. 10

[RexBoyWonder]

Having someone like Kevin Durant on the floor makes the game 10 times easier for Bam and Herro to fit better into there roles. You could sign a Brogden or a Paul to play PG and we will instantly be a top 5 team in the East.

I'll play along -

And losing in the first round is worth selling our future for? you wanna give up picks and young guys for that? If KD was a free agent it would've made sense, but he isn't.

[RexBoyWonder]

Bam Stans vs. Heat fans debates are always entertaining.

Never gets old.

Between myself Greg vade and Timmy you have 4 of the greatest minds this forum has ever seen. THE INTERNET HAS EVER SEEN. You’re getting a lot of facts and perspective you all wouldn’t normally get without the discussion. You’re seeing guys take a stance, back it with evidence/statistics/etc. which unfortunately is not the norm on here when debating/discussing topics. Overall it seems we agree more than disagree on the discussion.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Celtics lose again? With that huge cap and tax bill? IN THIS ECONOMY?

Buckle up boys, it's gonna get real weird this off-season. No way Jrue or Jaylen or KP or multiple of em don't get moved.

I’m thinking it’s Jrue and KP, I’ll take Jrue to go along with the KD acquisition.

Jrue
Herro
KD
Bam
Ware

Stay tuned.

[Beenie]

Celtics lose again? With that huge cap and tax bill? IN THIS ECONOMY?

Buckle up boys, it's gonna get real weird this off-season. No way Jrue or Jaylen or KP or multiple of em don't get moved.

Shams reported (before these losses to NY) that Bos will likely be making big changes to their roster this offseason due to their large payroll which is untenable.

My guess is everyone not name Tatum or Prichard will be potentially shopped.

[Lennyzinho]

Celtics lose again? With that huge cap and tax bill? IN THIS ECONOMY?

Buckle up boys, it's gonna get real weird this off-season. No way Jrue or Jaylen or KP or multiple of em don't get moved.

I’m thinking it’s Jrue and KP, I’ll take Jrue to go along with the KD acquisition.

Jrue
Herro
KD
Bam
Ware

Stay tuned.

I rather pay Davion 10-15M a year and not trade away assets than give Celtics one/two frps and jovic and expiring rozier to land jrue for 32-37M per year while he's 35-37 yo. I really like jrue. But he's not what we need at that cap hit. If we could land durant also it'd make a ton of sense like in your lineup, durant first option, herro second, Bam jrue 3rd and 4th. But I dont see a world where we keep Ware and get KD from rockets and jrue from Boston.

In that scenario all our frps are gone, and jjj jovic Pelle as well. Sure we'd have a good two year window but then when durant is 39-40 and herro gets extended 50M and we have no young guys in the pipeline cuz no draft picks and all traded, things are gonna be REALLY rough.

Rather keep davion. 26 yo. Salary wise will cost half or less of jrue (hopefully) but good production and we don't trade away assets. I'm into KD tho.

Also Brad Stevens would eat Rileys lunch. Or ... well drink his Ensure.

[Lennyzinho]

Celtics lose again? With that huge cap and tax bill? IN THIS ECONOMY?

Buckle up boys, it's gonna get real weird this off-season. No way Jrue or Jaylen or KP or multiple of em don't get moved.

Shams reported (before these losses to NY) that Bos will likely be making big changes to their roster this offseason due to their large payroll which is untenable.

My guess is everyone not name Tatum or Prichard will be potentially shopped.

I gotta think Ime makes a play for Jaylen Brown (if he likes him ofc).

Rockets chasing Giannis or Jaylen... they don't help the suns. They send their players to the east. They're much younger and on rockets timeline.

I think there's a chance we get durant discounted man. Suns desperately trying to create cap space and get picks. Wiggins duncan (they ETO duncan) jovic and frp. I dont see who's gonna go for him aggressively, especially with so many younger stars available. And only so many buyers. And suns are effed. Not saying it's gonna happen, ishbia might demand a high return or nothing but there's a chance.

[Flash4thewin]

Celtics lose again? With that huge cap and tax bill? IN THIS ECONOMY?

Buckle up boys, it's gonna get real weird this off-season. No way Jrue or Jaylen or KP or multiple of em don't get moved.

Shams reported (before these losses to NY) that Bos will likely be making big changes to their roster this offseason due to their large payroll which is untenable.

My guess is everyone not name Tatum or Prichard will be potentially shopped.

I gotta think Ime makes a play for Jaylen Brown (if he likes him ofc).

Rockets chasing Giannis or Jaylen... they don't help the suns. They send their players to the east. They're much younger and on rockets timeline.

I think there's a chance we get durant discounted man. Suns desperately trying to create cap space and get picks. Wiggins duncan (they ETO duncan) jovic and frp. I dont see who's gonna go for him aggressively, especially with so many younger stars available. And only so many buyers. And suns are effed. Not saying it's gonna happen, ishbia might demand a high return or nothing but there's a chance.

There is a difference between a discount and a ripoff. That you are proposing is a ripoff. I’m all for it if the Suns want to gift him to us but reality is it will cost us actual real assets. So Ware will be the foundation of a KD trade since we want to keep Bam and Herro. Then remember just how bad and pathetic Wiggins, Duncan, etc played in the playoffs. The price to pay will be Ware unfortunately and picks.

[Vertical Limit]

Having someone like Kevin Durant on the floor makes the game 10 times easier for Bam and Herro to fit better into there roles. You could sign a Brogden or a Paul to play PG and we will instantly be a top 5 team in the East.

I'll play along -

And losing in the first round is worth selling our future for? you wanna give up picks and young guys for that? If KD was a free agent it would've made sense, but he isn't.

Im not doing it if we have to move a single first round pick.. the trade better look like the kyle lowry trade, where all we traded was a cooked Goran Dragic and Achiuwa..

Wiggins, JJJ, Larrson or Jovic, and Rozier.. for Durant. if it were me Thats all im offering..

With that said; the Heat will definitely trade firsts and then some..

[greg4012]

Bam Stans vs. Heat fans debates are always entertaining.

Never gets old.

Between myself Greg vade and Timmy you have 4 of the greatest minds this forum has ever seen. You’re getting a lot of facts and perspective you all wouldn’t normally get without the discussion. You’re seeing guys take a stance, back it with evidence/statistics/etc. which unfortunately is not the norm on here when debating/discussing topics. Overall it seems we agree more than disagree on the discussion.

It's really easy to be the thoughtless vibe fan that just outsources rationalizing their emotions based on groupthink they're immediately exposed to. That's great for easy emoting

[greg4012]

Spoiler:

Yes Jimmy and Bam have a ton more overlap offensively than a player like Durant.

Jimmy has an excellent floor game. He's never really been the person to tilt the defense and create advantage because he's either (1) methodical in entering the paint or (2) physically forcing the issue to draw a foul. Jimmy protects (and steals) possessions immaculately. He's not an offensive engine and is not a floor spacer, but he's good at controlling and shrinking the game.

While this isn't really relevant to the discussion at hand, me thinks one of the top 5 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen provides greater benefit to an offense than Jimmy Butler. Especially given the fact that Bam and Jimmy were always more of a forced fit offensively than a natural one. But, it doesn't mean that Miami doesn't also need to improve from league-worst perimeter creation (Durant would be a step in the right direction, but he's not the guy creating for everyone around him). Durant isn't what this discussion is about, he's just characteristic of a potentially available player that could help put things into balance.

We're going to have to agree to disagree on this one. But I get why you feel the way you do about KD. I've always felt guys who cannot create and need to get the ball to do anything (Dirk is another one) get overrated by advanced metrics, because in the postseason its easier to take away guys who need to be fed the ball (same reason great bigs usually have a harder time there, Zo always struggled as the man in his time here). But I'll leave it at that because I know the conversation's about Bam.

You;re conflating like 20 different things and somehow made this a convo about Jimmy Butler when the underlying sentiment at hand was that Bam "doesn't impact winning". Which is nonsense (esp because defense is half the game).

You misunderstood the original posters point. He stated "winning at a high level", which is a critical qualifier to that statement. I understood what he meant, and apologies to vade if he feels I'm misinterpreting his own statement, but I took it to mean that while Bam does have a positive impact, in the postseason when the games get tougher, the things he does are often done better by other players, and he is forced to do them out of necessity on our rosters, which have traditionally been lacking in talent compared to other contenders.

Bam was actually his most impactful offensively when Miami was close to having a semblance of proper pecking order in terms of offensive creators/scorers, and guess what role Bam served during that time--he was the primary offensive hub through which all sets ran. Sometimes with the ball in his hands (esp DHOs), sometimes with him is the roll man or pop man, but he was involved in more actions than anyone else on the floor. As a result, Bam had multiple seasons with over 5 assists per game, was above league average in scoring efficiency and was appropriately right around 3rd in the pecking order in terms of FGAs.

Does that sound like someone that isn't an offensive hub or not crucially impacting the offense?

I would disagree he was the primary offensive hub, in fact I'd go so far as to argue the opposite, his best role was as the finisher. I'd describe the hub as Jimmy, which you more or less agreed with earlier in this post. I guess one thing I'd agree with is Jimmy/Bam had an overlap in roles, which is why they didn't always mesh as well together on the floor as the team probably would have preferred. But I've always felt the offense bogged down when it was Bam involved in everything as opposed to Jimmy.

For reference (and these stats are closer to basic boxscore than really advanced, so apologies and if you want to dig deeper I'd be interested in the numbers), Bam's offensive rating in our two best offensive seasons in his tenure here were 116 in 19-20, and 117 in 21-22 (team was at 112.5 and 113.7 those years, so he was about a +3.5 both seasons). Jimmy's by comparison was 123/124, roughly +10 both years. And yet the team still wasn't amazing as a whole offensively, finishing 7th/10th respectively, meaning even when Jimmy was the offensive hub we weren't good enough. So Bam really shouldn't be the engine if Jimmy can't be.

The fact that the impact on defense is just dismissed as an obvious "ok this doesn't warrant discussion because he's obviously elite on that end" but then results in a conclusion that "Bam doesn't impact winning" is beyond my comprehension.

Again you're misinterpreting my views, and possibly vade's as well though I don't want to speak for him. I was agreeing that Bam, on the offensive end only btw, has negligible impact at the highest levels on winning. And it's something we've got to consider when building a team, instead of expecting him to become something he's not.

Absolutely, agree with most of what you said. Of course Bam impacts winning nobody argues that.
Just not at the level we want him to, and this is where the FO has to build accordingly.

When Bam was at his best, he had over 35% of his shots come within 3 feet. This has decreased every year to below 25%.
This year, we finally saw a positive trend, he traded some of his mid-range shots for a 20% 3p frequency on acceptable efficiency. This is very important and will give him more options to be effective on the offensive end.

He absolutely can impact winning at a high level in the right role (we've seen it) and that role is when he doesn’t have to playmake or create his own shot offensively.

This is good bc this is when bridges to realizing we see things 90%+ the same are formed (even tho you did argue that Bam doesn't really impact winning).

So Bam impacts winning at a high level despite what RAPM in a vacuum says. Bam (as almost every big man in the history of the game aside from the truly elite offensive superstars) is largely reliant on perimeter creation to maximize his scoring output. In the absence of even league average perimeter creation (literally only Herro provides anything; Davion Mitchell's playmaking is pretty much limited to getting into the paint with a quick first step and kicking out--usually doesn't tilt the defense too much in doing so, but it is very much welcome as no one else on the team really beats his man off the dribble), Bam has been called on to do more self-creation and more midrange game. The result is not optimal offense, but it is good for his development (in the same way Herro should not be Miami's lead playmaker, but it's def been good for his development to add more of those reps to his arsenal).

This is evidenced by Bam having his most efficient offense when he had over 66% of his FGM assisted (which is still below league average for starting centers and is close to average for PFs) due to having real perimeter creators on roster even if never really top tier ones.

It's just inherent basketball nature that bigs are more reliant on perimeter creation for their offense to be generated. Just in the same way that perimeter creators are less capable paint finishers on those created looks than bigs are.

I definitely disagree that Bam's optimal role on offense should exclude playmaking. Having versatile bigs that can playmake in conjunction with their people moving (screen game) is invaluable and the less Bam needs to be turned to for creating his own offense the more he can thrive in playmaking for others (DHOs, short roll kickouts, high post reads, etc) while being aggressive in hunting play finishing. You saw that with his most efficient offensive scoring seasons also beinbg the seasons where he had the best assist numbers. Those were also the seasons were Miami actually had above average offensive ratings/production.

With that said, while we've suffered thru growing pains, if Miami does get a real top offensive option that allows Bam and Herro to slot into their optimized offensive roles, the offense as a whole will benefit greatly from the result of the growing pains as any player in on-ball actions needs to have effective counters when a defense aims to take away what the offense is primarily aiming to do (playoff basketball). That will be (1) Bam having a semblance of a self-creation midrange game, Herro's improved slashing and playmaking, and (hopefully) Bam increasingly pulling the trigger on all open looks from 3.

[greg4012]

Celtics angling for a reshuffle of their roster is probably more bad news for Miami than good news considering it will put them squarely on the trade market that many hope Miami is active on. We all know Celtics get the benefit of having the market overvalue all of their players (with the support of media narratives).

[DayofMourning]

I know we will never sell, but its fun to look at the OKC rebuild and what they did to completely change their franchise:

Here’s why the Thunder are right back in the contender’s circle:

• The Paul George trade. Knowing the Clippers needed George after signing Kawhi Leonard, Presti had rare leverage, and he squeezed it. He broke up a 49-win Thunder team because LA surrendered a haul: Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, five first-rounders and two pick swaps. OKC was fortunate that Gilgeous-Alexander, the MVP runner-up last season, developed better than anyone imagined.

• The Westbrook trade. The summer of 2019 wasn’t just about the George trade. It was also the right time to part ways with Westbrook, and once again Presti maximized the situation, getting Chris Paul, two first-round picks and two pick swaps from the Rockets to start a rebuild.

• The Chris Paul trade. Everyone knew Paul was short-term partly because at that stage of his career, he wanted to be on a contender. So after one surprisingly good 44-win season, Presti flipped him to Phoenix for a package including a 2022 first-round pick. A bonus: Paul was a good mentor for Gilgeous-Alexander that season.

• The 2022 draft. OKC was fortunate to draw the No. 1 pick in a draft that produced a pair of franchise players in Paolo Banchero (who went No. 1 to the Orlando Magic) and Holmgren. But, there’s more: Presti used a Clippers’ pick on Jalen Williams, who made the All-Rookie First Team and is a foundational piece.

https://www.nba.com/news/how-thunder-returned-to-contender-status

[Lennyzinho]

Celtics angling for a reshuffle of their roster is probably more bad news for Miami than good news considering it will put them squarely on the trade market that many hope Miami is active on. We all know Celtics get the benefit of having the market overvalue all of their players (with the support of media narratives).

Why do you think its bad? Celtics have one primary objective. Shed salary. Only a few teams can absorb salary this year. Things open up alot more in 2026 off season for several teams, us included.

Celtics aren't going to chase whales, try to swap jaylen and picks for giannis. They need to shed.

The Boston Celtics are projected to face a substantial luxury tax bill in the 2025-26 season, potentially exceeding $280 million, as their roster is expected to be near $500 million. This includes a payroll of around $230 million, pushing them well above the second luxury tax apron. The team's total cost for the season could reach $513 million, combining salary and tax penalties

More players changing teams, more deals for us to try to get in on. I mean, maybe you're right. Every offseason is a game of musical chairs and someone loses when the music stops. Maybe cuz the music puts Riley to sleep. I think its a positive as it's one more opportunity. Tbd.

[RexBoyWonder]

KD is not even what we need exactly.

He's an elite scorer, but not an elite creator for others. not a great passer. That's even a bigger need for us for this roster.

A Trey young that can defend better, or a Hali..that kind of engine.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

[3ammy3uck3ts]

KD is not even what we need exactly.

He's an elite scorer, but not an elite creator for others. not a great passer. That's even a bigger need for us for this roster.

A Trey young that can defend better, or a Hali..that kind of engine.

But that’s a tough ask, there’s not many guys that are threats for 30-12 a night AND play good defense in your comparison to needing a Trae. There aren’t many Halis available either. We’re going to have to get that from a combination of players, KD can give you the scoring of those 2 and then some while taking loads of pressure off others. Then we need to sign a veteran playmaking PG for the added playmaking like a CP or someone, I haven’t checked the vet PG free agent market out much yet.

You could try and trade for a Trae but if Herro isn’t gone they’re just going to be hunted into oblivion in the playoffs again. You could go after Ja, I’d be cool with that. Those are really your only 2 options to get a semblance of what you’re looking for in 1 guy.

[greg4012]

Celtics angling for a reshuffle of their roster is probably more bad news for Miami than good news considering it will put them squarely on the trade market that many hope Miami is active on. We all know Celtics get the benefit of having the market overvalue all of their players (with the support of media narratives).

Why do you think its bad? Celtics have one primary objective. Shed salary. Only a few teams can absorb salary this year. Things open up alot more in 2026 off season for several teams, us included.

Celtics aren't going to chase whales, try to swap jaylen and picks for giannis. They need to shed.

The Boston Celtics are projected to face a substantial luxury tax bill in the 2025-26 season, potentially exceeding $280 million, as their roster is expected to be near $500 million. This includes a payroll of around $230 million, pushing them well above the second luxury tax apron. The team's total cost for the season could reach $513 million, combining salary and tax penalties

More players changing teams, more deals for us to try to get in on. I mean, maybe you're right. Every offseason is a game of musical chairs and someone loses when the music stops. Maybe cuz the music puts Riley to sleep. I think its a positive as it's one more opportunity. Tbd.

Mostly because Celtics always end up getting sweetheart deals and often run interference on other teams' pursuits in the meantime (the media narrative machine assists them more than any other franchise). I know Celtics need tax relief, but I very much doubt they will have singular focus in doing so at the expense of maintaining a contending roster. They probably hope to pump some value into Jaylen Brown and dump his huge contract for a similar caliber player and probably want to get off the Porzingis ride considering he's super unreliable and often doesn't move the needle for them.

I wouldn't be surprised if the media report about Celtics seeking to trade for cap relief/roster reshuffle was put out by Celtics to start shaping the narrative with potential trade partners that they are getting a sweetheart deal bc the Cs are in a bind (when reality is that Brown is overpaid and Porzingis is a ticking time bomb they don't want to be tied to--just like they did with Marcus Smart).

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Celtics angling for a reshuffle of their roster is probably more bad news for Miami than good news considering it will put them squarely on the trade market that many hope Miami is active on. We all know Celtics get the benefit of having the market overvalue all of their players (with the support of media narratives).

Why do you think its bad? Celtics have one primary objective. Shed salary. Only a few teams can absorb salary this year. Things open up alot more in 2026 off season for several teams, us included.

Celtics aren't going to chase whales, try to swap jaylen and picks for giannis. They need to shed.

The Boston Celtics are projected to face a substantial luxury tax bill in the 2025-26 season, potentially exceeding $280 million, as their roster is expected to be near $500 million. This includes a payroll of around $230 million, pushing them well above the second luxury tax apron. The team's total cost for the season could reach $513 million, combining salary and tax penalties

More players changing teams, more deals for us to try to get in on. I mean, maybe you're right. Every offseason is a game of musical chairs and someone loses when the music stops. Maybe cuz the music puts Riley to sleep. I think its a positive as it's one more opportunity. Tbd.

Mostly because Celtics always end up getting sweetheart deals and often run interference on other teams' pursuits in the meantime (the media narrative machine assists them more than any other franchise). I know Celtics need tax relief, but I very much doubt they will have singular focus in doing so at the expense of maintaining a contending roster. They probably hope to pump some value into Jaylen Brown and dump his huge contract for a similar caliber player and probably want to get off the Porzingis ride considering he's super unreliable and often doesn't move the needle for them.

I wouldn't be surprised if the media report about Celtics seeking to trade for cap relief/roster reshuffle was put out by Celtics to start shaping the narrative with potential trade partners that they are getting a sweetheart deal bc the Cs are in a bind (when reality is that Brown is overpaid and Porzingis is a ticking time bomb they don't want to be tied to--just like they did with Marcus Smart).

They’ll probably snag KD and his expiring somehow clearing a combo of Jrue Brown and KP and eat the tax for 1 more year before getting huge relief next summer.

[Shewasfly]

KD is not even what we need exactly.

He's an elite scorer, but not an elite creator for others. not a great passer. That's even a bigger need for us for this roster.

A Trey young that can defend better, or a Hali..that kind of engine.

I feel like we need both. We don't have enough of a consistent scoring threat outside of Herro that a team would ever game plan for, and we also need someone to initiate the offense and create so they can primarily focus on scoring.

If KD is the target, the offseason plan has to include KD + a starting PG or at least combo guard who can handle the ball when pressed and get into the paint. Maybe revisit a trade with the Jazz for Clarkson or Sexton and Collins.

[greg4012]

Why do you think its bad? Celtics have one primary objective. Shed salary. Only a few teams can absorb salary this year. Things open up alot more in 2026 off season for several teams, us included.

Celtics aren't going to chase whales, try to swap jaylen and picks for giannis. They need to shed.

The Boston Celtics are projected to face a substantial luxury tax bill in the 2025-26 season, potentially exceeding $280 million, as their roster is expected to be near $500 million. This includes a payroll of around $230 million, pushing them well above the second luxury tax apron. The team's total cost for the season could reach $513 million, combining salary and tax penalties

More players changing teams, more deals for us to try to get in on. I mean, maybe you're right. Every offseason is a game of musical chairs and someone loses when the music stops. Maybe cuz the music puts Riley to sleep. I think its a positive as it's one more opportunity. Tbd.

Mostly because Celtics always end up getting sweetheart deals and often run interference on other teams' pursuits in the meantime (the media narrative machine assists them more than any other franchise). I know Celtics need tax relief, but I very much doubt they will have singular focus in doing so at the expense of maintaining a contending roster. They probably hope to pump some value into Jaylen Brown and dump his huge contract for a similar caliber player and probably want to get off the Porzingis ride considering he's super unreliable and often doesn't move the needle for them.

I wouldn't be surprised if the media report about Celtics seeking to trade for cap relief/roster reshuffle was put out by Celtics to start shaping the narrative with potential trade partners that they are getting a sweetheart deal bc the Cs are in a bind (when reality is that Brown is overpaid and Porzingis is a ticking time bomb they don't want to be tied to--just like they did with Marcus Smart).

They’ll probably snag KD and his expiring somehow clearing a combo of Jrue Brown and KP and eat the tax for 1 more year before getting huge relief next summer.

I could see that