Off-Season Volume 6 - The One Where Someone (Darius Days) Signs

[dagger151]

Stand "Pat" and make a move at the trade deadline unless you feel Herro's value sinks more, Duncan will never get back to form, and Lowry is washed up. We may be surprised with a full offseason, a healthier Dipo, hungrier Bam, Herro looking to get paid so he is going to ball out, that we will be there in the top 4 competing.

Did anyone here really think the Heat would be the #1 seed and be a shot away from the Finals when the season started?

Have faith fellas, the Godfather will get something done by the trade deadline at worst, but not gutting the team for Spida or KD.

[MartyConlonJr]

Herro vs Mitchell, age 22:

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=herroty01&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id2=mitchdo01&p2yrfrom=2019

For those wondering, first round exit shooting 32.1% from the field, 24.6% from 3, 4.2 topg against Houston.

You can alternatively look at Mitchell's 3rd season vs Herro's, if you prefer that to age. If you look at their stats per min, they are quite similar:

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=herroty01&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id2=mitchdo01&p2yrfrom=2020

Obviously in different roles. Also playoffs wise, Mitchell killed it.

Not trying to state anything here, just curious to look after a post above

[HeatingUp3]

I don't know. The godfather did only bad signings since 2014. Giving bad players too much dollars and losing our draft capital. He needs to make something big happen after all those BS in recant years.

[dean456]

This article asks whether Lebron's first LA season was the best ever by a 34 year old:

https://www.otgbasketball.com/post/2019/04/19/did-lebron-james-have-the-best-season-ever-by-a-34-year-old

Some notes:
- only 35 players have averaged over 20 ppg over that age (as of 2019, but probably still correct)
- note that the people that they listed with the best seasons included Kobe, Larry Bird, Alex English, Wilt - they all pretty much fell off a cliff after 35 or retired (ok Wilt was still putting up 20 rpg but down to 13 ppg). That basically leaves LeBron and Karl Malone as guys that maintained for longer. They were ultra durable, muscular freaks of nature.

Some other articles mention Tim Duncan, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Bill Russell as guys with good older years, but all are bigs.

I think guys like LeBron have normalised old guy productivity, but it is actually around 34-35 where the cliff of productivity falls.

I am super worried about KD being useful after a year of his contract, coming off major surgery. I am hopeful that being a tall spindly shooter gives him some longer shelf life, as shooters do buy a little time, but I really think if we trade for him, it is a 1-2 year attempt at a title, eating years 3 and 4

Just got to hope as KD ages out that Bam comes more into his own as he moves toward his prime. I can definitely see Durant remaining productive at a pretty high level based on how he gets his offense. He's not reliant on athleticism or bullying his way to the rim or having a quick first step, he's not even really a constant movement off ball guy either.

[Dadouv47]

Adam just said on a spaces we’re talking to the thunder and Mavs to get picks. He said the thunder deal is done we’re just working on the Mavs now

who's Adam? reliable source? OKC always works in silence so kind of odd to me.

I wonder what Miami is willing to give up to get their 2025 FRP back. We have some bad contracts to get rid of but you guys will need cap space and don't think Presti is willing to give up picks for that.

It's hard to know what Presti wants at this stage. Based on the previous deal we made where we traded them KZ Okpala for a 2nd rounder and removal of protections on our 2023 and 2024 pick to just now being a 2025 top 16 protected or 2026 unprotected if not conveyed.

I would wonder if he'd take Jovic and 1 or 2 2nds for our 2025 pick back.

Jovic seems like a Presti type pick in the mould of Poku/Chet, plus the fact that he's only 19yo doesn't really make any sense with our timeline. Wouldn't surprise me if that pick was made with them in mind or with their approval knowing that we'd need to make this trade.

I like Jovic but we lack roster spots and we didn't try to move up in the draft with 30 and 34 (before trading 30) so it's unlikely he's a guy Presti love that much. I would rather keep the Miami pick tbh...could maybe get a deal if Miami takes a bad expiring contract from us.

[dean456]

Herro vs Mitchell, age 22:

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=herroty01&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id2=mitchdo01&p2yrfrom=2019

For those wondering, first round exit shooting 32.1% from the field, 24.6% from 3, 4.2 topg against Houston.

You can alternatively look at Mitchell's 3rd season vs Herro's, if you prefer that to age. If you look at their stats per min, they are quite similar:

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=herroty01&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id2=mitchdo01&p2yrfrom=2020

Obviously in different roles. Also playoffs wise, Mitchell killed it.

Not trying to state anything here, just curious to look after a post above

Michell is definitely the better player and likely will be throughout his career but this is why I find the constant disrespect against Herro from Heat fans to be so weird. Young guys all struggle in the playoffs. Give Herro a team where he's able to take the reigns and be free to make mistakes and he will put up numbers. His teams likely won't be winning much at this point but he will flourish more in an environment like that.

Miami are about sacrificing for the sake of winning, they made him take a bench role as that was the best decision for us to be a winning team now.

[twix2500]

So we're trying to gut the team for 34 YO KD. Ok then.

PG :________, _________
SG : Dipo, Martin
SF : JImmy, Martin
PF : KD, ________
C : Bam, Dedmon


Can you Fill in the blanks

Likely the Heat will get another player in return with KD. But in your scenario, the set up would be;

PG: Oladipo - Garrett
SG: Butler
SF:
PF: Durant - Martin - Highsmith
Ce: Adebayo - Dedmon- O. Robinson

Yes players like Dennis Schroder and other vets will add depth. And they would scrape for at least two stretch guys. Depending on how good of a shooter Highsmith become he will move around. The same with Martin.


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[contract]

This article asks whether Lebron's first LA season was the best ever by a 34 year old:

https://www.otgbasketball.com/post/2019/04/19/did-lebron-james-have-the-best-season-ever-by-a-34-year-old

Some notes:
- only 35 players have averaged over 20 ppg over that age (as of 2019, but probably still correct)
- note that the people that they listed with the best seasons included Kobe, Larry Bird, Alex English, Wilt - they all pretty much fell off a cliff after 35 or retired (ok Wilt was still putting up 20 rpg but down to 13 ppg). That basically leaves LeBron and Karl Malone as guys that maintained for longer. They were ultra durable, muscular freaks of nature.

Some other articles mention Tim Duncan, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Bill Russell as guys with good older years, but all are bigs.

I think guys like LeBron have normalised old guy productivity, but it is actually around 34-35 where the cliff of productivity falls.

I am super worried about KD being useful after a year of his contract, coming off major surgery. I am hopeful that being a tall spindly shooter gives him some longer shelf life, as shooters do buy a little time, but I really think if we trade for him, it is a 1-2 year attempt at a title, eating years 3 and 4

Yes I've mentioned this before repeatedly. Most players that remain productive into their 30s tend to fall off ~ age 33 ... and every additional year thereafter piles up the bodies like crazy. If you look at the leading scorers in the NBA last season ...

http://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Season=2021-22&CF=GP*GE*40

This is a breakdown of the number of guys over 30 years old that averaged 18 or more ppg and played at least 40 games ...

30: 2 (McCollum & Middleton)
31: 0
32: 4 (DeRozan, Harden, Jimmy, Jrue)
33: 3 (Durant, Westbrook, Bojan Bogdanovic)
34: 1 (Steph)
35: 0
36: 0
37: 1 (Lebron)
> 37: 0

btw that 11 guys over 30 years old out of a total of 54 who met the criteria.

And Jimmy turns 33 in September, so we better step on the gas because the window is getting ready to slam shut. As far as KD goes, he's on a similar timeline as Jimmy (1 year older), but he had farther to fall, so I'm not worried about it. I wouldn't count on multiple championship with that pair though. We'd win 1 if we're lucky.

[twix2500]

Just want to warn everyone when Russell gets bought out. Heat will pursue him and especially if they gut the roster.

Read on Twitter

?t=TrC88Ou9z6l_W1CerueAZw&s=19

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[contract]

Just want to warn everyone when Russell gets bought out. Heat will pursue him and especially if they guy the roster.

Not to worry I'm stocked up on durable goods and I've got my Russell Westbrook emergency kit ready.

That will be a disaster.

[Vertical Limit]

Just want to warn everyone when Russell gets bought out. Heat will pursue him and especially if they guy the roster.

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its looking like he wants to get bought out, which is why he fired his agent because his agent was persistent in telling him to give LAL another chance, that Darvin Ham fully supports him and is willing to make this work… russ not buying it

[BlueHeat]

Smack my ass like a drum.

[puppa bear]

Just want to warn everyone when Russell gets bought out. Heat will pursue him and especially if they guy the roster.

Not to worry I'm stocked up on durable goods and I've got my Russell Westbrook emergency kit ready.

That will be a disaster.

I feel there was a time where Westbrook was 100% Heat material, but that time has past. If we get him then it is what it is, and he’s here as a ring chasing career reviver. He’s on the John Wall level right now, but he’s healthy so we actually have a body of work to look at and facepalm.

[contract]

Smack my ass like a drum.

[puppa bear]

Just want to warn everyone when Russell gets bought out. Heat will pursue him and especially if they guy the roster.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

its looking like he wants to get bought out, which is why he fired his agent because his agent was persistent in telling him to give LAL another chance, that Darvin Ham fully supports him and is willing to make this work… russ not buying it

Russ knows they’re trying to trade his arse. He sees the writing and wants out as much as they want him out. He didn’t fit their boys club and it was painfully obvious, no matter how hard he tried

[Voltron914]

Ughhh either way i hope this ends soon so that if we strike out on the whales its awkward as hell in training camp with everybody in their feelings lol

[puppa bear]

Smack my ass like a drum.

[dean456]

who's Adam? reliable source? OKC always works in silence so kind of odd to me.

I wonder what Miami is willing to give up to get their 2025 FRP back. We have some bad contracts to get rid of but you guys will need cap space and don't think Presti is willing to give up picks for that.

It's hard to know what Presti wants at this stage. Based on the previous deal we made where we traded them KZ Okpala for a 2nd rounder and removal of protections on our 2023 and 2024 pick to just now being a 2025 top 16 protected or 2026 unprotected if not conveyed.

I would wonder if he'd take Jovic and 1 or 2 2nds for our 2025 pick back.

Jovic seems like a Presti type pick in the mould of Poku/Chet, plus the fact that he's only 19yo doesn't really make any sense with our timeline. Wouldn't surprise me if that pick was made with them in mind or with their approval knowing that we'd need to make this trade.

I like Jovic but we lack roster spots and we didn't try to move up in the draft with 30 and 34 (before trading 30) so it's unlikely he's a guy Presti love that much. I would rather keep the Miami pick tbh...could maybe get a deal if Miami takes a bad expiring contract from us.

Could do something like,

OKC get Jovic and 1 2nd, shed 8mil salary
BKN get Herro, Lowry, Favors, 4FRPs and swaps
Miami get Durant

Miami would likely need to find a way to shed some more salary so we aren't hard capped. Maybe throw a 4th team in there to re-route Lowry.

[contract]

Ughhh either way i hope this ends soon so that if we strike out on the whales its awkward as hell in training camp with everybody in their feelings lol

Pat won't let Durant get away.

[puppa bear]

I don't know. The godfather did only bad signings since 2014. Giving bad players too much dollars and losing our draft capital. He needs to make something big happen after all those BS in recant years.

So Jimmy Butler was a bad signing?

Jimmy was a great signing. Pat made some desperation deals in the post-Bron era, and he admitted a few years back he really wanted to stick it to Bron and build a title team without him. Pat’s back playing the long con and doing the things he sees as right. Some don’t come off, but in general he’s left himself with tradable deals. Heat got screwed over by the Mavs backing out of the agreement when they heard it was to help get Jimmy, that ended up costing us an extra pick.

The Duncan one looks terrible because of last season, if Robinson has just held serve that deal would look very movable for teams needing shooting.