2025 Offseason Season Thread Vol. 2

[EMC5466]

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[VaDe255]

Spoiler:

Good breakdown from Heat subreddit of the cap hell that PHX is currently in and how it really should be a driving factor in these trade talks

Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/heat/comments/1lez8db/are_we_the_favorites_to_land_kd_over_the_or/



Referenced article: https://www.thirdapron.com/p/phoenix-suns-2025-offseason-preview

I don’t know what that wall of text was supposed to prove, because the Suns can absolutely get out of the second apron easily.

They can waive Cody Martin ($8.68M) and decline Vasilije Micic’s team option ($8.11M), saving nearly $17 million right off the bat. That alone puts them well below the second apron without needing to move any major contracts or pull off complex trades.

Yes, Duncan Robinson is a nice piece and his partially guaranteed deal provides some flexibility, but Phoenix doesn’t need that to get under the second apron. They can get out of the second apron, and then make additional moves to fill out the roster under it once the restrictions loosen. The idea that only Miami can offer them that path to stay under just doesn’t hold up.

They'll have to fill in like 5 roster spots with about 5m in space to do so under the apron.

I get that, but people seem to overlook that Phoenix can still make more moves and likely will, once they’re out from under the second apron restrictions

Trading for Duncan and waiving him might sound like a smart cap maneuver, but it comes with trade offs, too. You’re adding $10M in dead cap (when you rather want it to be value money instead) and you’ve now got another roster spot to fill on top of the ones you already needed to address

It’s not that Duncan’s contract has no value, it does offer some flexibility but it’s probably not as impactful as fans are making it out to be

[greg4012]

Spoiler:

I don’t know what that wall of text was supposed to prove, because the Suns can absolutely get out of the second apron easily.

They can waive Cody Martin ($8.68M) and decline Vasilije Micic’s team option ($8.11M), saving nearly $17 million right off the bat. That alone puts them well below the second apron without needing to move any major contracts or pull off complex trades.

Yes, Duncan Robinson is a nice piece and his partially guaranteed deal provides some flexibility, but Phoenix doesn’t need that to get under the second apron. They can get out of the second apron, and then make additional moves to fill out the roster under it once the restrictions loosen. The idea that only Miami can offer them that path to stay under just doesn’t hold up.

They'll have to fill in like 5 roster spots with about 5m in space to do so under the apron.

I get that, but people seem to overlook that Phoenix can still make more moves and likely will, once they’re out from under the second apron restrictions

Trading for Duncan and waiving him might sound like a smart cap maneuver, but it comes with trade offs, too. You’re adding $10M in dead cap (when you rather want it to be value money instead) and you’ve now got another roster spot to fill on top of the ones you already needed to address

It’s not that Duncan’s contract has no value, it does offer some flexibility but it’s probably not as impactful as fans are making it out to be

I guess it really depends on if PHX is at all motivated to remain under the 2nd apron and lessen repeater tax penalties.

I haven't seen fans making Duncan's contract as some end-all be-all--just something more than the typical expiring value (that is usually a player that isn't offering much anyways). To the contrary, I have seen/read ZERO from PHX or national media regarding cap machinations or even accounting for Duncan's contract--which I believe makes it worth highlighting.

IMO it's MUCH easier to have Duncan's $10M in dead cap on payroll and work to fill out roster from a place of being under the 1st apron (around $192M) than it is at $202M. Once under the 1st Apron, then PHX can have more flexibility in any subsequent trade and can participate in sign and trades. There may be other factors too, which I'm interested in better understanding.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[Vertical Limit]

Tyler shouldn’t be given the option to extend until he does something meaningful in the playoffs, can’t pay $50M a year for a guy who only plays 1 side of the ball during the regular season and neither side of the ball in the playoffs when teams actually lock in. He’s done nothing to earn an extension.

Dont get me started im flabbergasted by what I read here sometimes..people think GM’s view Herro as better than Dort……….., mind **** blown..

He wouldnt be a starter on either OKC and Indiana….. 32 million coming off the bench is lunacy..

We are the only insane fanbase that has people that think Tyler is worthy of 50 million per season..

Not to mention, Dort is just a better basketball player… if OKC were to trade Dort for Herro, it would be a for Dort alone in a Dort S&T and we would have to attach a first round pick and a swap.. at minimum

[fincane30]

Tyler shouldn’t be given the option to extend until he does something meaningful in the playoffs, can’t pay $50M a year for a guy who only plays 1 side of the ball during the regular season and neither side of the ball in the playoffs when teams actually lock in. He’s done nothing to earn an extension.

Dont get me started im flabbergasted by what I read here sometimes..people think GM’s view Herro as better than Dort……….., mind **** blown..

He wouldnt be a starter on either OKC and Indiana….. 32 million coming off the bench is lunacy..

We are the only insane fanbase that has people that think Tyler is worthy of 50 million per season..

Not to mention, Dort is just a better basketball player… if OKC were to trade Dort for Herro, it would be a for Dort alone in a Dort S&T and we would have to attach a first round pick and a swap.. at minimum

Who does Bobby Marks root for? Is he a Heat fan? When he laid out a potential Herro extension I don't remember him using the caveat of "he certainly doesn't deserve it, but this is what he will get". You know when you have Jalen Williams and Shai you can have Dort as your starting 2 because you've got plenty of offensive creation. So Dort is more valuable to OKC because of how they're built. A team with defenders and lacking offensive creation would value Herro as part of their whole more. Roster construction matters. The Magic aren't trading what they traded for Bane for Dort. And not because Desmond Bane is so much better at basketball.

[Kobewade11]

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Gotta appreciate the development of Tyler's game here. Still firmly believe he will be optimized if Miami can get him off-ball more. But, it's nothing but a positive that he has continued developing playmaking chops and tightening that handle. Props to Tyler for answering the call in the face of a deficient roster (and a terrorist PG running mate).

Fans try to trade him every year, called out by his team president, he just puts his head down and works on his craft, ideally every draft pick follows that same model. I can imagine he’s probably been a calming voice for Ware over the past few weeks to block out trade rumors and keep working.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Tyler shouldn’t be given the option to extend until he does something meaningful in the playoffs, can’t pay $50M a year for a guy who only plays 1 side of the ball during the regular season and neither side of the ball in the playoffs when teams actually lock in. He’s done nothing to earn an extension.

Dont get me started im flabbergasted by what I read here sometimes..people think GM’s view Herro as better than Dort……….., mind **** blown..

He wouldnt be a starter on either OKC and Indiana….. 32 million coming off the bench is lunacy..

We are the only insane fanbase that has people that think Tyler is worthy of 50 million per season..

Not to mention, Dort is just a better basketball player… if OKC were to trade Dort for Herro, it would be a for Dort alone in a Dort S&T and we would have to attach a first round pick and a swap.. at minimum

Who does Bobby Marks root for? Is he a Heat fan? When he laid out a potential Herro extension I don't remember him using the caveat of "he certainly doesn't deserve it, but this is what he will get". You know when you have Jalen Williams and Shai you can have Dort as your starting 2 because you've got plenty of offensive creation. So Dort is more valuable to OKC because of how they're built. A team with defenders and lacking offensive creation would value Herro as part of their whole more. Roster construction matters. The Magic aren't trading what they traded for Bane for Dort. And not because Desmond Bane is so much better at basketball.

Vertical is extreme with each take he has I’ve noticed over the last few weeks but Herro doesn’t deserve the extension. He needs to show up when it matters most and he simply hasn’t

[KingHomer21]

I can't believe we are still giving Herro a pass or hoping he continues to develop a high IQ (it's not just his defense or getting clamped up by length) but it's his shot selection and playmaking when good possessions become paramount. I absolutely appreciate his professionalism and how he's improved offensively - as the coaching staff and development dept on the Heat deserve credit too. It has, however, come at the cost of team success. His best year is still off the bench, usage rate wise, efficiency wise, team success wise.

He couldn't play next to Lowry, a pass first PG, who played smart possessions (when he wasn't giving up open shots), or Butler who was our elite point forward. The Bam/Herro two man game might look neat on paper but the Bam/DRob two man game won playoff games. So on year 6, what is the true upside to having Tyler Herro start and have his touches be at the top of the pecking order?

The reads i see OKC and Indiana make on the fly is essential to team ball.

[MettaWorldPanda]

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[greg4012]

I can't believe we are still giving Herro a pass or hoping he continues to develop a high IQ (it's not just his defense or getting clamped up by length) but it's his shot selection and playmaking when good possessions become paramount. I absolutely appreciate his professionalism and how he's improved offensively - as the coaching staff and development dept on the Heat deserve credit too. It has, however, come at the cost of team success. His best year is still off the bench, usage rate wise, efficiency wise, team success wise.

He couldn't play next to Lowry, a pass first PG, who played smart possessions (when he wasn't giving up open shots), or Butler who was our elite point forward. The Bam/Herro two man game might look neat on paper but the Bam/DRob two man game won playoff games. So on year 6, what is the true upside to having Tyler Herro start and have his touches be at the top of the pecking order?

The reads i see OKC and Indiana make on the fly is essential to team ball.

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

I can't believe we are still giving Herro a pass or hoping he continues to develop a high IQ (it's not just his defense or getting clamped up by length) but it's his shot selection and playmaking when good possessions become paramount. I absolutely appreciate his professionalism and how he's improved offensively - as the coaching staff and development dept on the Heat deserve credit too. It has, however, come at the cost of team success. His best year is still off the bench, usage rate wise, efficiency wise, team success wise.

He couldn't play next to Lowry, a pass first PG, who played smart possessions (when he wasn't giving up open shots), or Butler who was our elite point forward. The Bam/Herro two man game might look neat on paper but the Bam/DRob two man game won playoff games. So on year 6, what is the true upside to having Tyler Herro start and have his touches be at the top of the pecking order?

The reads i see OKC and Indiana make on the fly is essential to team ball.

KDs going to get here and Herro is going to be ball dominant per usual and lead the team in usage and shot attempts I’m sure. Spo enables it though and the front office has been delusional about him since day 1 so
I’m sure that’s not changing.

[Kobewade11]

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OG smiling like a proud dad

[Hallstar]

I can't believe we are still giving Herro a pass or hoping he continues to develop a high IQ (it's not just his defense or getting clamped up by length) but it's his shot selection and playmaking when good possessions become paramount. I absolutely appreciate his professionalism and how he's improved offensively - as the coaching staff and development dept on the Heat deserve credit too. It has, however, come at the cost of team success. His best year is still off the bench, usage rate wise, efficiency wise, team success wise.

He couldn't play next to Lowry, a pass first PG, who played smart possessions (when he wasn't giving up open shots), or Butler who was our elite point forward. The Bam/Herro two man game might look neat on paper but the Bam/DRob two man game won playoff games. So on year 6, what is the true upside to having Tyler Herro start and have his touches be at the top of the pecking order?

The reads i see OKC and Indiana make on the fly is essential to team ball.

41 posts in 15 years? Vertical gonna quote just to agree with himself

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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UD is loving it, let’s hope it happens.

[greg4012]

I wonder if there's any more traction with Brooklyn being involved as a facilitator. The version of the deal floated where Phoenix ends up with Jovic and Claxton makes a ton of sense to me.

Add one FRP going to BKN. I can get on board with this deal. Phoenix gets a young starting frontcourt with super complementary skillset squarely on Booker's timeline, a chance to bring back Jaime to rookie year status (and market him in Phoenix), and the cap relief via Duncan's contract that they desperately need. Brooklyn gets a FRP and a useful player in Wiggins with a nice 1-2 year window where they can pump & move him (send him to a contender for value now or wait a season and have a valued expiring + solid starting player combo for any trade).

Who is this deal not enough for?

Still see this as the way. PHX gets at least 2 quality starters and 1-2 young prospects. In an ideal scenario, Miami can keep one of Jovic or Jaquez.

Then flip Rozier (and probably a 1st) to Sacramento for Derozan.

Notable re Derozan:

2026-27: $10,000,000 guaranteed, $12,000,000 guaranteed if makes All-Star in 2025 OR 2026, $14,000,000 guaranteed if makes All-Star in 2025 AND 2026, fully guaranteed if team makes 2025 or 2026 NBA Finals and player plays in at least 60 regular season games, or fully guaranteed 1/10/27

[KingHomer21]

I can't believe we are still giving Herro a pass or hoping he continues to develop a high IQ (it's not just his defense or getting clamped up by length) but it's his shot selection and playmaking when good possessions become paramount. I absolutely appreciate his professionalism and how he's improved offensively - as the coaching staff and development dept on the Heat deserve credit too. It has, however, come at the cost of team success. His best year is still off the bench, usage rate wise, efficiency wise, team success wise.

He couldn't play next to Lowry, a pass first PG, who played smart possessions (when he wasn't giving up open shots), or Butler who was our elite point forward. The Bam/Herro two man game might look neat on paper but the Bam/DRob two man game won playoff games. So on year 6, what is the true upside to having Tyler Herro start and have his touches be at the top of the pecking order?

The reads i see OKC and Indiana make on the fly is essential to team ball.

41 posts in 15 years? Vertical gonna quote just to agree with himself

LOL - I''ve been lurking long before then too. Back on Ira's Q/A blog and when Ethan was on Sun Sentinel.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I wonder if there's any more traction with Brooklyn being involved as a facilitator. The version of the deal floated where Phoenix ends up with Jovic and Claxton makes a ton of sense to me.

Add one FRP going to BKN. I can get on board with this deal. Phoenix gets a young starting frontcourt with super complementary skillset squarely on Booker's timeline, a chance to bring back Jaime to rookie year status (and market him in Phoenix), and the cap relief via Duncan's contract that they desperately need. Brooklyn gets a FRP and a useful player in Wiggins with a nice 1-2 year window where they can pump & move him (send him to a contender for value now or wait a season and have a valued expiring + solid starting player combo for any trade).

Who is this deal not enough for?

Still see this as the way. PHX gets at least 2 quality starters and 1-2 young prospects. In an ideal scenario, Miami can keep one of Jovic or Jaquez.

Then flip Rozier (and probably a 1st) to Sacramento for Derozan.

Notable re Derozan:

2026-27: $10,000,000 guaranteed, $12,000,000 guaranteed if makes All-Star in 2025 OR 2026, $14,000,000 guaranteed if makes All-Star in 2025 AND 2026, fully guaranteed if team makes 2025 or 2026 NBA Finals and player plays in at least 60 regular season games, or fully guaranteed 1/10/27

Thankfully the addition of Derozan for Rozier makes us +1 on the wins as opposed to the -4 by just getting Durant

[contract]

No they are not trading for Herro’s contract. Most likely they will draft Nique Clifford or Cedric Coward with the 15th pick.

1. OKC wouldn't want Tyler at $32 million per.

2. Tyler is our star player.

These are wild times in Miami.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25210648-nba-execs-reportedly-expect-jalen-williams-holmgren-sign-new-thunder-contracts

They have extensions coming up. The salaries on that team are going to be mounting soon. Tyler ain’t going anywhere. Same reason they won’t go after Oklahoma’s own Trae Young. Shai is about to be paid 75 mil per. And Herro is due a 49 per extension. It’s nothing personal against Herro. Just the new apron era.

They have the option of trading guys away to make room for our star player. The issue is that he's only a "star" here.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I actually think the NBA would like the extra coverage during the finals with the KD trade.