2025 Miami Heat Regular Season Thread

[greg4012]

Miami Heat been averaging 106 in pace prior to the last 2 games. Pace is literally a scheme in this offense. Getting teams on their heels is a must for this scheme to work.



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We are basically the modern day regular season Sun with the run and gun approach. Unfortunately for us the regular season and playoffs are completely different animals.

I say it's more like Nelly ball

Interestingly, Miami isn't even spamming the 3 ball at a high rate (24th in 3pt rate). THat number should start to creep up with Herro back tho.

[MadD23]

Somehow the Heat still have the 2nd best PPG in the league. If Herro hadn't come back, they'd be #1.

Pace is the somehow. Miami is still #1 in pace.

Actual offensive efficiency has dropped to middle of the pack tho

BINGO!!

[MadD23]

Miami Heat been averaging 106 in pace prior to the last 2 games. Pace is literally a scheme in this offense. Getting teams on their heels is a must for this scheme to work.



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We are basically the modern day regular season Sun with the run and gun approach. Unfortunately for us the regular season and playoffs are completely different animals.

The good news:

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Miami’s halfcourt offense currently ranks No. 6 in the league. According to Genius Sports player tracking data, their halfcourt offense is No. 7 in points per chance – the equivalent of per possession in their data, with actual points per possession factoring in offensive rebounds, which we’ll get to later – at 1.03. All good things. If that’s the range where they finish the season, they’re in good shape.

Pace is still crucially important to Miami's approach in the halfcourt offense, but Miami is not currently just a fastbreak/transition spammer. Spacing in this system and everyone operating on a string is as important as the pacing.

I like this, we need to be good on both scenarios, not just a one trick Pony that depends on running teams out of the building 110% of the times. Players get tired, it's a long 82 games season, plus the playoffs. Keep the foot on the gas as much as you can, but be ready to drag it out when teams adapt and shots are not falling. Mastering both styles will prevent us from becoming a one dimensional team that can only win at a fast pace. Again keep the style, keep pushing but also balance it a little sometimes to get us ready to handle the change in pace when needed, specially in the playoffs.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

As for the rotation and starting lineup, it’s a tough spot to be in right now. I think Ware starts last night if Giannis plays so Bam can matchup with Giannis and Ware on Turner. I think Ware starts again in the very near future, deciding who starts between Ware and Mitchell might simply be matchup based going forward for awhile. If Ware starts 1 of Davion, Dru or Pelle is out of the rotation, that’s hard to justify right now. If Davion starts Jovic and Keshad are out, that’s a much easier decision. I think it goes further than simply just Ware should start or Davion should start, both have a ripple effect to the rotation as a whole and some guys deserve to play over others. Ware didnt start but he only played 3 less minutes than Bam Davion and Powell.

Since I spend too much time thinking about these lineups, I can't help but work through this.

Scenario 1: "If Ware starts 1 of Davion, Dru or Pelle is out of the rotation, that’s hard to justify right now."

Herro (12) - Davion (25) - Smith (11)
Powell (30) - Herro (18)
Wiggins (28) - Jaquez (10) - Pelle (10)
Bam (8-12) - Jaquez (18) - Jovic/Fontecchio (18-22)
Ware (25-30) - Bam (18-23)

Scenario 2: "If Davion starts Jovic and Keshad are out"

Davion (28) - Smith (20)
Herro (30) - Powell (18)
Powell(12)* - Wiggins/Jaquez (30) - Larsson/Fontecchio (6)
Wiggins/Jaquez (30) - Bam (8-12) - Jovic/Fontecchio (6-10)
Bam (18-23) - Ware (25-30)

*The bigger issue for lineup rotations is Herro and Powell getting to around 60 minutes of game play between the 2. Last night we saw Miami eat into the Forward rotation to accommodate the Herro/Powell 60. For a number of reasons, I contend that is a big mistake. It actually puts a squeeze on minutes available for the whole pool of Jaquez (deserves 30 mpg right now), Larsson, Fontecchio, Jovic and Keshad (not in rotation when everyone's healthy unless he passes up Jovic--TBD). It shrinks the pie for all of those guys to split.

Scenario 1 opens up the forward rotation to give Pelle more potential minutes and some opportunity for whoever deserves it out of Fontecchio, Jovic, Keshad. It also obviously sizes Miami up and most importantly, doesn't force Norman Powell into a role that he historically never succeeds in.

Let's not downgrade Norm's impact for the sake of having Davion start and maxing out Smith's minutes. Davion can have the same impact and similar role (probably will be more impactful) off the bench. Miami runs a distributed offensive system, Davion is doing a great job getting in the paint and passing out upon defense squeezing on him, but with Herro and Powell running with Wiggins and Bam (and Ware), that isn't as needed. Jaquez and Mitchell also have proven to work really well together.

I guess a big part of it is going to come down to whether Spo wants to preserve his main guys and play them 28-30 minutes a night. That will definitely open up some spot minutes here and there for guys who have earned their minutes early on this season, it gets tricky when we get around the 34 minutes or so a game we’re used to seeing these guys play. Will also keep legs fresh and minimize injury risk, we’ll see which way Spo decides to go with this. Feels like we need some sort of consolidation at some point

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Last night the starters all hovered around 30 and we only went 10 deep, 1 of those being Simone at 7 minutes and Jaime still played about 10 minutes less than he probably should have with Jovic and Keshad getting DNPs. Curious to see how it trends game to game. I guess you take Simone’s 7 and give it to Jaime, it’s hard to argue against Dru and Pelles minutes. They’ve been effective

[greg4012]

As for the rotation and starting lineup, it’s a tough spot to be in right now. I think Ware starts last night if Giannis plays so Bam can matchup with Giannis and Ware on Turner. I think Ware starts again in the very near future, deciding who starts between Ware and Mitchell might simply be matchup based going forward for awhile. If Ware starts 1 of Davion, Dru or Pelle is out of the rotation, that’s hard to justify right now. If Davion starts Jovic and Keshad are out, that’s a much easier decision. I think it goes further than simply just Ware should start or Davion should start, both have a ripple effect to the rotation as a whole and some guys deserve to play over others. Ware didnt start but he only played 3 less minutes than Bam Davion and Powell.

Since I spend too much time thinking about these lineups, I can't help but work through this.

Scenario 1: "If Ware starts 1 of Davion, Dru or Pelle is out of the rotation, that’s hard to justify right now."

Herro (12) - Davion (25) - Smith (11)
Powell (30) - Herro (18)
Wiggins (28) - Jaquez (10) - Pelle (10)
Bam (8-12) - Jaquez (18) - Jovic/Fontecchio (18-22)
Ware (25-30) - Bam (18-23)

Scenario 2: "If Davion starts Jovic and Keshad are out"

Davion (28) - Smith (20)
Herro (30) - Powell (18)
Powell(12)* - Wiggins/Jaquez (30) - Larsson/Fontecchio (6)
Wiggins/Jaquez (30) - Bam (8-12) - Jovic/Fontecchio (6-10)
Bam (18-23) - Ware (25-30)

*The bigger issue for lineup rotations is Herro and Powell getting to around 60 minutes of game play between the 2. Last night we saw Miami eat into the Forward rotation to accommodate the Herro/Powell 60. For a number of reasons, I contend that is a big mistake. It actually puts a squeeze on minutes available for the whole pool of Jaquez (deserves 30 mpg right now), Larsson, Fontecchio, Jovic and Keshad (not in rotation when everyone's healthy unless he passes up Jovic--TBD). It shrinks the pie for all of those guys to split.

Scenario 1 opens up the forward rotation to give Pelle more potential minutes and some opportunity for whoever deserves it out of Fontecchio, Jovic, Keshad. It also obviously sizes Miami up and most importantly, doesn't force Norman Powell into a role that he historically never succeeds in.

Let's not downgrade Norm's impact for the sake of having Davion start and maxing out Smith's minutes. Davion can have the same impact and similar role (probably will be more impactful) off the bench. Miami runs a distributed offensive system, Davion is doing a great job getting in the paint and passing out upon defense squeezing on him, but with Herro and Powell running with Wiggins and Bam (and Ware), that isn't as needed. Jaquez and Mitchell also have proven to work really well together.

I guess a big part of it is going to come down to whether Spo wants to preserve his main guys and play them 28-30 minutes a night. That will definitely open up some spot minutes here and there for guys who have earned their minutes early on this season, it gets tricky when we get around the 34 minutes or so a game we’re used to seeing these guys play. Will also keep legs fresh and minimize injury risk, we’ll see which way Spo decides to go with this. Feels like we need some sort of consolidation at some point

Only player on the team really averaging over 30 mpg currently is Wiggins (which should drop). But, for this pace, keeping players fresh during reg season seems essential.

We saw Indy find success with keeping a deeper rotation and playing at pace into the playoffs last season, but in scenario 1, Core guys can ramp up to like 34 mpg without compromising essential rotation IMO:

Herro (16) - Davion (25) - Smith (7)
Powell (32) - Herro (16)
Wiggins (32) - Jaquez (8) - Pelle (8)
Bam (15) - Jaquez (22) - Jovic/Fontecchio (11)
Ware (30) - Bam (18)

[greg4012]

Last night the starters all hovered around 30 and we only went 10 deep, 1 of those being Simone at 7 minutes and Jaime still played about 10 minutes less than he probably should have with Jovic and Keshad getting DNPs. Curious to see how it trends game to game. I guess you take Simone’s 7 and give it to Jaime, it’s hard to argue against Dru and Pelles minutes. They’ve been effective

Not that hard to argue against Dru's minutes IMO. He's effective complementary, but when you don't have something to complement it's a different story.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Since I spend too much time thinking about these lineups, I can't help but work through this.

Scenario 1: "If Ware starts 1 of Davion, Dru or Pelle is out of the rotation, that’s hard to justify right now."

Herro (12) - Davion (25) - Smith (11)
Powell (30) - Herro (18)
Wiggins (28) - Jaquez (10) - Pelle (10)
Bam (8-12) - Jaquez (18) - Jovic/Fontecchio (18-22)
Ware (25-30) - Bam (18-23)

Scenario 2: "If Davion starts Jovic and Keshad are out"

Davion (28) - Smith (20)
Herro (30) - Powell (18)
Powell(12)* - Wiggins/Jaquez (30) - Larsson/Fontecchio (6)
Wiggins/Jaquez (30) - Bam (8-12) - Jovic/Fontecchio (6-10)
Bam (18-23) - Ware (25-30)

*The bigger issue for lineup rotations is Herro and Powell getting to around 60 minutes of game play between the 2. Last night we saw Miami eat into the Forward rotation to accommodate the Herro/Powell 60. For a number of reasons, I contend that is a big mistake. It actually puts a squeeze on minutes available for the whole pool of Jaquez (deserves 30 mpg right now), Larsson, Fontecchio, Jovic and Keshad (not in rotation when everyone's healthy unless he passes up Jovic--TBD). It shrinks the pie for all of those guys to split.

Scenario 1 opens up the forward rotation to give Pelle more potential minutes and some opportunity for whoever deserves it out of Fontecchio, Jovic, Keshad. It also obviously sizes Miami up and most importantly, doesn't force Norman Powell into a role that he historically never succeeds in.

Let's not downgrade Norm's impact for the sake of having Davion start and maxing out Smith's minutes. Davion can have the same impact and similar role (probably will be more impactful) off the bench. Miami runs a distributed offensive system, Davion is doing a great job getting in the paint and passing out upon defense squeezing on him, but with Herro and Powell running with Wiggins and Bam (and Ware), that isn't as needed. Jaquez and Mitchell also have proven to work really well together.

I guess a big part of it is going to come down to whether Spo wants to preserve his main guys and play them 28-30 minutes a night. That will definitely open up some spot minutes here and there for guys who have earned their minutes early on this season, it gets tricky when we get around the 34 minutes or so a game we’re used to seeing these guys play. Will also keep legs fresh and minimize injury risk, we’ll see which way Spo decides to go with this. Feels like we need some sort of consolidation at some point

Only player on the team really averaging over 30 mpg currently is Wiggins (which should drop). But, for this pace, keeping players fresh during reg season seems essential.

We saw Indy find success with keeping a deeper rotation and playing at pace into the playoffs last season, but in scenario 1, Core guys can ramp up to like 34 mpg without compromising essential rotation IMO:

Herro (16) - Davion (25) - Smith (7)
Powell (32) - Herro (16)
Wiggins (32) - Jaquez (8) - Pelle (8)
Bam (15) - Jaquez (22) - Jovic/Fontecchio (11)
Ware (30) - Bam (18)

Definitely some similarities to those Pacers, I think I saw Spo was inspired by their play from last playoffs but maybe I’m imagining that

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Last night the starters all hovered around 30 and we only went 10 deep, 1 of those being Simone at 7 minutes and Jaime still played about 10 minutes less than he probably should have with Jovic and Keshad getting DNPs. Curious to see how it trends game to game. I guess you take Simone’s 7 and give it to Jaime, it’s hard to argue against Dru and Pelles minutes. They’ve been effective

Not that hard to argue against Dru's minutes IMO. He's effective complementary, but when you don't have something to complement it's a different story.

Maybe that’s the simple solution to all this then

[SA37]

Last night the starters all hovered around 30 and we only went 10 deep, 1 of those being Simone at 7 minutes and Jaime still played about 10 minutes less than he probably should have with Jovic and Keshad getting DNPs. Curious to see how it trends game to game. I guess you take Simone’s 7 and give it to Jaime, it’s hard to argue against Dru and Pelles minutes. They’ve been effective

Not that hard to argue against Dru's minutes IMO. He's effective complementary, but when you don't have something to complement it's a different story.

Maybe that’s the simple solution to all this then

I think Spo is going to keep the rotation 10-deep. So, I think we'll see Spo go with a fixed 8-man rotation (Ware, Bam, Wiggins, Powell, Herro, Mitchell, Larsson, and Jaquez) and then Fontecchio/Jovic/Dru Smith will rotate for the last 2 spots getting some 8-15 minutes of run based on matchups and how guys are playing. For now, Jovic is the odd man out, but injuries and such will give him a chance to play his way back into the rotation.

[HeatFanLifer]

So much talent on this team, but only so many minutes. A trade is inevitable.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

So much talent on this team, but only so many minutes. A trade is inevitable.

Have to consolidate somewhere, might not be until the deadline though

[Crazy-Canuck]

So much talent on this team, but only so many minutes. A trade is inevitable.

Have to consolidate somewhere, might not be until the deadline though

Optimal choice is rozier as soon as the nba gets off their arse. But that's a big IF. There's alot of options for 26M cap relief.

Second choice is Wiggins. Not a consolidation deal, but could fill a need elsewhere. If powell is the starting SF moving forward, it's best to use wiggins to bring back big man depth and hopefully some draft compensation.

Third is to consolidate the guard room. But if herro, powell, and Davion are untouchable, theres not much salary to work with it. Pelle and dru are too good a value to trade away.

Fontecchio isn't worth much.
Jovics byc makes him too hard to trade.

[Voltron914]

So much talent on this team, but only so many minutes. A trade is inevitable.

Have to consolidate somewhere, might not be until the deadline though

Optimal choice is rozier as soon as the nba gets off their arse. But that's a big IF. There's alot of options for 26M cap relief.

Second choice is Wiggins. Not a consolidation deal, but could fill a need elsewhere. If powell is the starting SF moving forward, it's best to use wiggins to bring back big man depth and hopefully some draft compensation.

Third is to consolidate the guard room. But if herro, powell, and Davion are untouchable, theres not much salary to work with it. Pelle and dru are too good a value to trade away.

Fontecchio isn't worth much.
Jovics byc makes him too hard to trade.

its crazy how deep we are and still got Rozier taking up a chunk of cap. Spo just gotta do the next man up thing and limit dru and pelle unless there is a blow out or injury. give jovic and keshad some more minutes and figure out the rotations

[greg4012]

So much talent on this team, but only so many minutes. A trade is inevitable.

Have to consolidate somewhere, might not be until the deadline though

Optimal choice is rozier as soon as the nba gets off their arse. But that's a big IF. There's alot of options for 26M cap relief.

Second choice is Wiggins. Not a consolidation deal, but could fill a need elsewhere. If powell is the starting SF moving forward, it's best to use wiggins to bring back big man depth and hopefully some draft compensation.

Third is to consolidate the guard room. But if herro, powell, and Davion are untouchable, theres not much salary to work with it. Pelle and dru are too good a value to trade away.

Fontecchio isn't worth much.
Jovics byc makes him too hard to trade.

If Powell is starting SF moving forward, we're cooked

Norm's positional breakdown by season reveals it all:

[HeatFanLifer]

Have to consolidate somewhere, might not be until the deadline though

Optimal choice is rozier as soon as the nba gets off their arse. But that's a big IF. There's alot of options for 26M cap relief.

Second choice is Wiggins. Not a consolidation deal, but could fill a need elsewhere. If powell is the starting SF moving forward, it's best to use wiggins to bring back big man depth and hopefully some draft compensation.

Third is to consolidate the guard room. But if herro, powell, and Davion are untouchable, theres not much salary to work with it. Pelle and dru are too good a value to trade away.

Fontecchio isn't worth much.
Jovics byc makes him too hard to trade.

If Powell is starting SF moving forward, we're cooked

Norm's positional breakdown by season reveals it all:

Yeah Powell aint an option at the 3 and Wiggins isn’t an option at the four for that matter. Herro will need to either slide in at PG or Spo is going to have to determine whether Herro is the future at SG for this team. It’s not a bad problem to have, but this super small lineup is not the solution.

[twix2500]

Whatever starting lineup Spo puts out there it has to be compared to the previous starting lineup;

Mitchell, Powell, Larsson, Wiggins, Adebayo
135 OffRtg, 104.9 DefRtg, +30.1 NetRtg

And I would like to point out the 2nd Unit

Mitchell, Jaquez, Larsson, Wiggins, Adebayo
131.1 OffRtg, 97.1 DefRtg, +34.0 NetRtg

These are the two most played units with Bam prior to Herro return. This 2nd Unit hasn't played a single minute since Herro return. So the 2nd Unit went from 2nd most mins to zero mins

[Crazy-Canuck]

Whatever starting lineup Spo puts out there it has to be compared to the previous starting lineup;

Mitchell, Powell, Larsson, Wiggins, Adebayo
135 OffRtg, 104.9 DefRtg, +30.1 NetRtg

And I would like to point out the 2nd Unit

Mitchell, Jaquez, Larsson, Wiggins, Adebayo
131.1 OffRtg, 97.1 DefRtg, +34.0 NetRtg

These are the two most played units with Bam prior to Herro return. This 2nd Unit hasn't played a single minute since Herro return. So the 2nd Unit went from 2nd most mins to zero mins

And need to pay attention to the pace. Thats what made the offense so much fun to watch and a big part of the early heat identity.

[Crazy-Canuck]

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This would be a fun AS event idea.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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