2025 Offseason Season Thread Vol. 3

[BBallFreak]

Spoiler:

I have extreme doubts about Reaves stepping in seamlessly for Herro. It's one thing to play off of LeBron and another star. It's an entirely different thing to be the focal point of a team's defense.

He’s not too far off as it is while deferring to those guys like you mentioned, without LeBron he averages 28-7-8 on 64TS%. Without LeBron AND Luka he averaged 32-7-11. It seems with increased usage and shot attempts he’s up to the task

Waiting for someone to say, "yeah, but he's 27."

I'm waiting for someone to tell me how many games he's played without those guys and how many teams knew in advance to properly scout and gameplan.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I have extreme doubts about Reaves stepping in seamlessly for Herro. It's one thing to play off of LeBron and another star. It's an entirely different thing to be the focal point of a team's defense.

He’s not too far off as it is while deferring to those guys like you mentioned, without LeBron he averages 28-7-8 on 64TS%. Without LeBron AND Luka he averaged 32-7-11. It seems with increased usage and shot attempts he’s up to the task

How many games? What are the context of those games? Good teams? Who were his primary defenders? Can he sustain that over the course of 70+ games or will the night to night pressure of defenses focusing entirely on him wear on him. He's an unknown in that regard.

Not saying he’s going to put those numbers up over the course of a season but I’d feel pretty confident he can get an extra 3-4 points a night as a 1st option getting 4 more shots a night and that’s not factoring in playmaking. I’m not even taking a stance I’m just adding context, they’re basically a wash.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Spoiler:

He’s not too far off as it is while deferring to those guys like you mentioned, without LeBron he averages 28-7-8 on 64TS%. Without LeBron AND Luka he averaged 32-7-11. It seems with increased usage and shot attempts he’s up to the task

Waiting for someone to say, "yeah, but he's 27."

I'm waiting for someone to tell me how many games he's played without those guys and how many teams knew in advance to properly scout and gameplan.

Is it a hot take to think Reaves could score 3 more points a night on 4 more shots?

[SA37]

Spoiler:

Malik monk is better than Reeves and he is on 4 year 77 million.

Hell ill take Kuminga over Reeves on just age and upside alone because of Kumingas explosive offensive attacks and athleticism

And please, lets knock it off.. Jalen Green is WAY better than Reeves. Theyre not even remotely comparable.

Giddey is better than Reeves. I have seen Giddey’s playmaking ability on the Bulls and he impresses me more.


Whoever signs reeves to 130 million, theyre going to be thinking how the **** do we move this contract after one year.

He is a luxury player that you want coming off the bench. If hes your starter, youre getting bounced the first round

Meh, you can hype yourself into silliness with buzz words/phrases" like "explosive offensive attacks" and fawn over "athleticism, length, and age" and all that garbage.

Austin Reaves is across the board a better player than Jalen Green: better shooting splits, more assists/rebounds, better PER, more win shares, more triple-doubles, higher career high for points in a game...etc.

Josh Giddey and Reaves are almost identical in their shooting splits and box-score numbers, PER and so on. That's actually going to be a very good proxy for Reaves' market value.

Same deal with Herro. Reaves and Herro are almost identical across the board. I have no doubt if you swapped Reaves for Herro, Miami wouldn't miss a beat.

Herro is on a 4-year, $120M deal, and that is precisely in the range I said Reaves would likely get next year. We'll see what Giddey signs for this summer.

Reaves has never been asked to be in engine of an offense. The primary scorer. The primary ball handler. He also has never have been more than a #3 on a team throughout his career. The #1 has been the greatest of a generation and the #2 was either Anthony Davis or Luka. So when we start comparing what one guy has done compared to another I'll tell you context matters. And Reaves has had the easier job the last two seasons compared to Herro. Certainly was the case last year.

we've seen guys go from 2nd/3rd options and absolutely kill it (see: Tracy McGrady, James Harden, Steve Nash, Gil Arenas, Jalen Brunson, Kawhi) and guys who couldn't make the jump (see: Miami's very own Eddie Jones and Brian Grant, Mikal Bridges, CJ McCollum, Rashard Lewis).

I think Reaves is being supremely underrated here, but I can't prove it.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

How about this for fun

Player 1: 18 ppg, 9.6 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.0 3ptm, 1.3 st, 0.7 blk, 2.1 TO with 48.5/76.5/35.7 shooting splits (FG%/FT%/3PT%)

Player 2: 19 ppg, 8.2 reb, 2 ast, 1.5 3ptm, 1.0 st, 1.0 blk, 2.6 TO with 52.7/84.5/39.9 splits

Player 1 on 3/$165m max contract, and player 2 is on a 1/$26m.

I’m gonna have to agree with 3ammy on this one and say it’s totally unfair to cherry pick and use Bam’s awful year against him when comparing him with other players. Maybe if you had used Bam’s 2021-2022 season numbers from when he peaked as a player…

Fanbase full of idiots

[SA37]

Am I the only one who hates the idea of Kuminga?

From what I’m hearing from GSW fans he can’t:


Shoot
Pass
Not a great defender
Ball hog


What am I missing here? Why tie up 30m for multiple years for a player like that? Couldn’t win a game with Curry Out playing alongside Jimmy and Draymond?

I'm not thrilled with the idea of Kuminga. It really depends on the contract. Whatever it is, it almost 100% sure will be an overpay given what he has shown to this point. But something in the 150% of the MLE range is a reasonable bet ($21M/year). Preferably 3 year guarantee with a 4th year a partial guarantee with a team option and the contract declining. So something like 4-years, $82M with ~$72M guaranteed.

[Shewasfly]

How about this for fun

Player 1: 18 ppg, 9.6 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.0 3ptm, 1.3 st, 0.7 blk, 2.1 TO with 48.5/76.5/35.7 shooting splits (FG%/FT%/3PT%)

Player 2: 19 ppg, 8.2 reb, 2 ast, 1.5 3ptm, 1.0 st, 1.0 blk, 2.6 TO with 52.7/84.5/39.9 splits

Player 1 on 3/$165m max contract, and player 2 is on a 1/$26m.

Player 2 for sure once you factor in the cost of player 1.

Agreed in this limited context. I'm not sure what the next contract of John Collins is gonna look like, but given he opted into this $26m PO, assuming he's not seeing a bigger market than this currently. Or hoping to get some portion of the 2026 FA pool windfall. And incidentally the same age as Bam too!

Would have been nice to explore some options with JC in years past, but now with Ware's emergence (and progression ) not sure if we have the room for him.

He'd still be great off the bench though.

If Miami can find a way to give up nothing that we view as an asset (sans maybe 2nd round picks/swaps), I'm all for revisiting my hopeful Sexton/Collins trade. If we do something like that, it's a for sure "put up or shut up" season for Bam and Herro.

[RexBoyWonder]

Am I the only one who hates the idea of Kuminga?

From what I’m hearing from GSW fans he can’t:


Shoot
Pass
Not a great defender
Ball hog


What am I missing here? Why tie up 30m for multiple years for a player like that? Couldn’t win a game with Curry Out playing alongside Jimmy and Draymond?

He's 22, super athletic and possibly will only cost us the useless Wiggins. I like his driving game, he young enough to MAYBE improve his troublesome BB IQ and inconsistent (not broken) jumper.

It's a worthy gamble on him improving but only if we make it a short contract with a team option in case it doesn't work out.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Am I the only one who hates the idea of Kuminga?

From what I’m hearing from GSW fans he can’t:


Shoot
Pass
Not a great defender
Ball hog


What am I missing here? Why tie up 30m for multiple years for a player like that? Couldn’t win a game with Curry Out playing alongside Jimmy and Draymond?

I'm not thrilled with the idea of Kuminga. It really depends on the contract. Whatever it is, it almost 100% sure will be an overpay given what he has shown to this point. But something in the 150% of the MLE range is a reasonable bet ($21M/year). Preferably 3 year guarantee with a 4th year a partial guarantee with a team option and the contract declining. So something like 4-years, $82M with ~$72M guaranteed.

Well you better warm up to it brother, it’s sounding like it has a high chance of happening lol. Unfortunate.

[BBallFreak]

Waiting for someone to say, "yeah, but he's 27."

I'm waiting for someone to tell me how many games he's played without those guys and how many teams knew in advance to properly scout and gameplan.

Is it a hot take to think Reaves could score 3 more points a night on 4 more shots?

Yes, absolutely! In Miami, in place of Herro, his usage skyrockets, defensive game plans are geared specifically towards him, and he has no one to take the pressure off. This is exactly why things like per36 are so useless because they don't take other circumstances into account. He's no longer the third guy, he's THE ONLY GUY! Night in, night out! That takes a toll on a player.

[carnageta]

Rank them in order of what you’d prefer if you had to pick:

Herro 3/$150M
Monk 4/$77M
Reaves 4/$90M

Herro

Reaves

Monk


Reaves is better than Monk.

You would prefer Herro at $50M a year to Reaves at $22.5M? I agree Monk overall is a tier below them, Herro and Reaves are basically a wash

Dude, Herro is better than Austin. He's also 2 years younger.

Without Tyler Herro on the floor we had the absolute worst offense out of any team last season. He was our entire engine. Reaves has had the luxury to play alongside LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and now Luka Doncic - all of which are light years better offensively than Bam Adebayo and regular season Jimmy Butler. Reaves has been the 3rd option behind 2 legit superstar players his entire career. Tyler has never had that luxury.

Herro makes 30m a season right now, and will for the next 2 seasons. He's not making 50m a year at this point. When it comes time to actually pay Tyler 50m/year he'll be as old as current day Austin Reaves and the salary cap at that point would have also risen significantly as well. 50m will be the new 37m. Herro should continue to improve as well and in 2 seasons he will be an even better player.



Also, Reaves isn't getting paid 22.5m / year. There's a reason he declined the 4 year 90/m contract extension with the Lakers. He's looking to get paid just as much as Tyler.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I'm waiting for someone to tell me how many games he's played without those guys and how many teams knew in advance to properly scout and gameplan.

Is it a hot take to think Reaves could score 3 more points a night on 4 more shots?

Yes, absolutely! In Miami, in place of Herro, his usage skyrockets, defensive game plans are geared specifically towards him, and he has no one to take the pressure off. This is exactly why things like per36 are so useless because they don't take other circumstances into account. He's no longer the third guy, he's THE ONLY GUY! Night in, night out! That takes a toll on a player.

The Bam disrespect is getting WILD.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Herro

Reaves

Monk


Reaves is better than Monk.

You would prefer Herro at $50M a year to Reaves at $22.5M? I agree Monk overall is a tier below them, Herro and Reaves are basically a wash

Dude, Herro is better than Austin. He's also 2 years younger.

Without Tyler Herro on the floor we had the absolute worst offense out of any team last season. He was our entire engine. Reaves has had the luxury to play alongside LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and now Luka Doncic - all of which are light years better offensively than Bam Adebayo and regular season Jimmy Butler. Reaves has been the 3rd option behind 2 legit superstar players his entire career. Tyler has never had that luxury.

Herro makes 30m a season right now, and will for the next 2 seasons. He's not making 50m a year at this point. When it comes time to actually pay Tyler 50m/year he'll be as old as current day Austin Reaves and the salary cap at that point would have also risen significantly as well. 50m will be the new 37m. Herro should continue to improve as well and in 2 seasons he will be an even better player.



Also, Reaves isn't getting paid 22.5m / year. There's a reason he declined the 4 year 90/m contract extension with the Lakers. He's looking to get paid just as much as Tyler.

I think if you really dug into it you would have a hard time coming to the conclusion that Herro is easily better than Reaves. Again, I’m not even taking a side but they’re pretty damn close whichever way you lean and I could just as easily argue he’s hindered from having to take a back seat

[BBallFreak]

Is it a hot take to think Reaves could score 3 more points a night on 4 more shots?

Yes, absolutely! In Miami, in place of Herro, his usage skyrockets, defensive game plans are geared specifically towards him, and he has no one to take the pressure off. This is exactly why things like per36 are so useless because they don't take other circumstances into account. He's no longer the third guy, he's THE ONLY GUY! Night in, night out! That takes a toll on a player.

The Bam disrespect is getting WILD.

We all saw how well Bam did alleviating pressure from Herro. I love Bam, but he's a third option.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Yes, absolutely! In Miami, in place of Herro, his usage skyrockets, defensive game plans are geared specifically towards him, and he has no one to take the pressure off. This is exactly why things like per36 are so useless because they don't take other circumstances into account. He's no longer the third guy, he's THE ONLY GUY! Night in, night out! That takes a toll on a player.

The Bam disrespect is getting WILD.

We all saw how well Bam did alleviating pressure from Herro. I love Bam, bit he's a third option.

Is this in reference to the playoffs series where Herro was unable to score on Sam Merrill Max Strus and Ty Jerome?

That’s fine if you think he’s a 3rd option, behind 2 elite players/scorers seems like a great recipe for success. What is Tyler though, like on good winning teams that make postseason runs? Because we have 0 evidence he can contribute when the playoffs come around being heavily involved. So you can say 1st (hopefully not) or 2nd but we don’t know that for a fact.

[Kobewade11]

We all saw how well Bam did alleviating pressure from Herro. I love Bam, but he's a third option.

I think thats the sentiment most level head posters here share

[Hallstar]

How about this for fun

Player 1: 18 ppg, 9.6 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.0 3ptm, 1.3 st, 0.7 blk, 2.1 TO with 48.5/76.5/35.7 shooting splits (FG%/FT%/3PT%)

Player 2: 19 ppg, 8.2 reb, 2 ast, 1.5 3ptm, 1.0 st, 1.0 blk, 2.6 TO with 52.7/84.5/39.9 splits

Player 1 on 3/$165m max contract, and player 2 is on a 1/$26m.

I’m gonna have to agree with 3ammy on this one and say it’s totally unfair to cherry pick and use Bam’s awful year against him when comparing him with other players. Maybe if you had used Bam’s 2021-2022 season numbers from when he peaked as a player…

I don't think it's fair to compare Bam to Collins lol, but the defense can't be that Bam peaked 2 or 3 years ago...that opens a whole other set of problems

[3ammy3uck3ts]

How about this for fun

Player 1: 18 ppg, 9.6 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.0 3ptm, 1.3 st, 0.7 blk, 2.1 TO with 48.5/76.5/35.7 shooting splits (FG%/FT%/3PT%)

Player 2: 19 ppg, 8.2 reb, 2 ast, 1.5 3ptm, 1.0 st, 1.0 blk, 2.6 TO with 52.7/84.5/39.9 splits

Player 1 on 3/$165m max contract, and player 2 is on a 1/$26m.

I’m gonna have to agree with 3ammy on this one and say it’s totally unfair to cherry pick and use Bam’s awful year against him when comparing him with other players. Maybe if you had used Bam’s 2021-2022 season numbers from when he peaked as a player…

I don't think it's fair to compare Bam to Collins lol, but the defense can't be that Bam peaked 2 or 3 years ago...that opens a whole other set of problems

Whose defense was that? Unowen was just doing his usual trolling

[3ammy3uck3ts]

We all saw how well Bam did alleviating pressure from Herro. I love Bam, but he's a third option.

I think thats the sentiment most level head posters here share

Agreed.

[BBallFreak]

The Bam disrespect is getting WILD.

We all saw how well Bam did alleviating pressure from Herro. I love Bam, bit he's a third option.

Is this in reference to the playoffs series where Herro was unable to score on Sam Merrill Max Strus and Ty Jerome?

That’s fine if you think he’s a 3rd option, behind 2 elite players/scorers seems like a great recipe for success. What is Tyler though, like on good winning teams that make postseason runs? Because we have 0 evidence he can contribute when the playoffs come around being heavily involved. So you can say 1st (hopefully not) or 2nd but we don’t know that for a fact.

Everyone forgets his rookie season, like it didn't happen or something, but on one thing, we agree. He's a second or third option at best. That doesn't, however, mean that Reaves can produce like a second option under the same circumstances. It's interesting to me that you need proof with Herro (when such proof actually exists) but not with Reaves...