**NBA Draft Discussion 2024**

[MettaWorldPanda]

I really like Holmes.

His numbers look impressive and he even has a 3p shot.
On defense he can guard multiple positions and looks like he'll fit right into the switch heavy defensive schemes in the NBA.

Why is he projected to go around 30? I'd think he would go around 20 at least and wouldn't even be shocked if he would go as a lottery pick.

Plenty of us are big DaRon Holmes fans. Could have a JJJ like climb up the draft board when all said and done.

[lastb1ckman]

Looking at the these and comparisons of the 6'9 -6'10 with shoes players next to Bam that can stretch the floor powerforwards

Bam Adebayo - 6'8.75 ht/wo-shoes, 7'2.75 wingspan
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Tristan Da Silva - 6'8.25 ht/wo-shoes, 6'10.25 wingspan
PJ Hall - 6'8.25 ht/wo-shoes, 7'1.5 wingspan
Daron Holmes II - 6'8.75 ht/wo-shoes, 7'1.5 wingspan
Bobbi Klintman - 6'8.75 ht/wo-shoes, 6'11 wingspan
Tyler Smith - 6'9 ht/wo-shoes, 7'1 wingspan

I think it would be who has the best switchable defense.

If looking for who has shown real inside-outside 2-way potential for the next level, the answer is Daron Holmes. He's the only one on the list with rim protection and rim running upside and IMO is as switchable or more than the rest of the group. Realistically, I see him living guarding 4s and 5s, but he has shown a propensity to use his length to guard smaller and quicker players on the perimeter. IMO he has elite hand-eye coordination and great body control with a quick bounce to maximize his length when defending in space. He ain't gonna be switching like Bam (who is?), but I think he's got the chops to switch on the perimeter similar to Jovic, with more rim protection versatility along with it.



This is the total list of College Bball players since 2008 to meet the following thresholds in a season (Holmes' Jr season numbers and college career highs in parenthesis):

- Block % over 6% (7.2%; 8.7%)
- Steal % over 1% (1.8%)
- 3P% over 35% (38.6%)
- 3PA per 100 over 4 (4.8)
- BPM over 10 (11.5)
- Dunks over 40 (71; 89)

I know I'm repetitive having shared these snippets before, but it really stands out to me how hard it is to find big players that actually show this level of impact inside (legit rim protection chops and one of the most prolific dunkers in college the past 3 years) and outside (encouraging 3 ball, steal %, assist %, some handle).

We always post about finding a 2-way 3&D big man to pair with Bam. The reality is those players are very rare.

The only college players since 2008 to have more dunks than Holmes' best season (89 dunks as a SOPH) are verifiable giants (7+ footers that shoot 70%+ of their FGA at the rim) that can do little else and the following players:

- Anthony Davis (also a giant with his 7'6 wingspan)
- Bam Adebayo
- Montrezl Harrell
- Obi Toppin
- Marvin Bagley

I see really unique upside for Holmes' fit in Miami's future rotation alongside Bam and Jovic.

Da Silva is steady freddy if we're looking strictly for big wing defense and shooting.

Yeah Holmes is the only true big man here thay would actually get playing time. Da Silva is just a big wing, he won't help with rebounding or covering bigs. The others aren't good defenders.

[MettaWorldPanda]

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[Kobewade11]

We need size and at some point Spo has to develop a real center

[MettaWorldPanda]

We need size and at some point Spo has to develop a real center

We need a big who can play with Bam but that big has to be able to hit 3’s, switch, rebound, set screens, and block shots. Sounds like a lot but DaRon Holmes is capable of all these things and also has that dog in him.

[greg4012]

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[eddieheatfan]

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i rather have the 7'4 ft guy that was posted here earlier. this team needs a true center that is flexible and has hunger to win.


would you trade some of our scrubs for chet holgrem?

[MettaWorldPanda]

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i rather have the 7'4 ft guy that was posted here earlier. this team needs a true center that is flexible and has hunger to win.


would you trade some of our scrubs for chet holgrem?

That 7’4 guy would work in the 90’s with Bam but not in this NBA. Will get run off the floor and will be trying to win games in the 80’s and 90’s due to lack of spacing and 3 point shooting .

[DayofMourning]

Id like to see more of a comparison on Clingan vs Edey. I dont see how one is rated top 5 and the other non lotto. Whats the separation?

[lastb1ckman]

Id like to see more of a comparison on Clingan vs Edey. I dont see how one is rated top 5 and the other non lotto. Whats the separation?

If you look at some of the draft buzz, there's a good chance Edey might actually go lotto. His combine really impress people.

The main difference I see is that Clingan is an elite rim protector at the college level, and a good passer for his size. Rim runner, rim protecting centers that can move their feet a bit are still valuable players in the NBA. Even though it's unlikely he ever becomes a star, it's seen that he's got a solid floor.

[lastb1ckman]

I need to find details on the defensive stats, but I actually don't think there's gonna be much difference between their effectiveness at the nba level. Clingan probably is bringing nothing on offense besides rim running and finishing plays. He's also gonna be a purely drop big along too.

[lastb1ckman]

I think Edey can do much more than Clingan on offense, and I think he can be a decent drop defense big on the nba. Both probably will never be stars, but I can imagine they can both be valuable

[lastb1ckman]

One thing to note is Edey is remarkably healthy for a player his size. He's played nearly every game he started all 4 seasons, and really only missed a few games due to illness. No major low body injuries at all while playing heavy minutes all season long for multiple seasons. And it's not like he's a finesse guy, he's banging down low with other big men all the time. Clingan has delt with a couple foot injuries in his career and played far less minutes per game (20 ish) through his career. I really think whoever drafts Edey has a pretty good rotation big on their hands. I can already see him killing us during the regular season lol

[RexBoyWonder]

I really like Holmes.

His numbers look impressive and he even has a 3p shot.
On defense he can guard multiple positions and looks like he'll fit right into the switch heavy defensive schemes in the NBA.

Why is he projected to go around 30? I'd think he would go around 20 at least and wouldn't even be shocked if he would go as a lottery pick.

Because he played for Dayton, he's one of the oldest players in the draft, he has tweener size, and this was the first year ever he showed a lick of shooting.

He looks like a energy bench big, and most teams aim higher then that in the mid first.

If we pick him we've got to believe the 3 point shot is legit, because he's not a C and if he can't shot it's another precious situation which is gross.

[greg4012]

Id like to see more of a comparison on Clingan vs Edey. I dont see how one is rated top 5 and the other non lotto. Whats the separation?

Elite defensive upside

[twix2500]

Since Holmes opted out competing at the combine scrimmages. Let's look at Holmes vs D1 competition. So you can see his size and athleticism vs higher competition

Dayton vs Arizona
Holmes 23 pts, 11 rbs, 3 ast, 3 stls, 1 blk

Watch on YouTube

[RexBoyWonder]

Since Holmes opted out competing at the combine scrimmages. Let's look at Holmes vs D1 competition. So you can see his size and athleticism vs higher competition

Dayton vs Arizona
Holmes 23 pts, 11 rbs, 3 ast, 3 stls, 1 blk

Watch on YouTube

I want to like him but I just can't.

The combination of his age, his weak physic, the untrustworthy shot, the way he moves...He just doesn't pass the eye test.

To me he looks like the classic good college player with a game that won't translate at all.

A huge % of his positives plays just won't work against NBA bigs, he's not big enough or fast/explosive enough, and the skill isn't there to compensate.

I'd take him at #43..maybe. I won't go ANYWHERE NEAR him at #15.

[greg4012]

I really like Holmes.

His numbers look impressive and he even has a 3p shot.
On defense he can guard multiple positions and looks like he'll fit right into the switch heavy defensive schemes in the NBA.

Why is he projected to go around 30? I'd think he would go around 20 at least and wouldn't even be shocked if he would go as a lottery pick.

Because he played for Dayton, he's one of the oldest players in the draft, he has tweener size, and this was the first year ever he showed a lick of shooting.

He looks like a energy bench big, and most teams aim higher then that in the mid first.

If we pick him we've got to believe the 3 point shot is legit, because he's not a C and if he can't shot it's another precious situation which is gross.

He'll be 21 on draft night (same age as Precious when drafted after his FR season). Older than all of the one and done, of course, but not some ancient player. There are numerous 23+ aged draft prospects in this class. He's younger than Knecht, Devin Carter, Da Silva, Shannon, Edey. Younger than Jaquez last year.

The comparison to Precious seems to be easy because this is a Heat forum, but their games and what they've shown are quite different. Holmes is the same height without shoes that Precious measured in shoes. So, while Holmes is on the smaller side for a full time 5, he's got better size than Precious. Precious is a tweener because he doesn't have any semblance of a perimeter game on offense and doesn't really have a plus function in the paint offensively (or defensively) either.

Perimeter shooting aside, Precious showed a real lack of efficient interior offense as a 20 year old freshman with a TS% of 53% and eFG% of 51%. As a 18-19 year old freshman, Holmes' TS% was 64.4% and his eFG% was 65%. With his expanded offensive role as a Soph and Jr, he still always remained above 62% TS and 58% eFG%.

20-year old Freshman Precious: 63% of Precious' FGA came at the rim, where he converted at a 64% clip--he had 47 dunks out of 369 FGAs. Dunk rate of 12.7%. He shot 25% on all non-rim FGAs.

19-year old Freshman Holmes: 71% of Holmes' FGA came at the rim, where he converted at a 80% clip--he had 82 dunks out of 282 FGAs. Dunk rate of 29%. He shot 29% on all non-rim FGAs.

20-year old Sophomore Holmes: 62% of Holmes' FGA came at the rim, where converted at a 72% clip--he had 89 dunks out of 390 FGA. Dunk rate of 23%. He shot 39% on all non-rim FGAs.

21-year old Junior Holmes: 47% of Holmes's FGA came at the rim, where he converted at a 74% clip--he had 71 dunks out of 399 FGAs. Dunk rate of 18%. He shot 37% on all non-rim FGAs, including 39% on 2.5 3PA per game.


What this tells me:

- Offensively, Precious showed that as a raw and athletic 20-year old, he was completely reliant on rim attempts to generate offense and had little else in his bag. He still didn't convert at a great rate (64% rim FG% is sub par for a big) and his dunk rate was not notable or encouraging. I strongly believe dunk rate paired with FG% at the rim are great indicators of how finishing will translate to the next level.

- Holmes showed a similar paint-bound rim runner offensive game as a 19-year old Freshman, but converted at an elite rate at the rim, with the sort of dunk rate typically reserved for 7 foot plus giants (see my prior posts on the company he's in here).

- Holmes showed clear improvement and diversification in his offensive game year over year. He maintained the strong interior game as one of the most dominant dunkers and rim finishers in college basketball over the past decade+. But also showed clear year over year improvement in how he was scoring and his function in the offense.

I get reservation with "older" prospects in the first round of the draft, especially if picking in the top 8 or so. But, (1) this isn't your typical draft with numerous players that have believable projections for superstar upside; and (2) if I'm looking at older prospects, I NEED to see year over year improvement to validate the extended time in college. Holmes shows that in spades. IMO that is a strength of his profile as the question of if this guy's upside is just theoretical or if he has a track record of clear improvement already has positive indicators in his favor that can be projected to continue to a reasonable extent. Holmes effectively played a different offensive game for Dayton each of his 3 seasons there, while always having his rim running as a foundation.

On the defensive end, if Holmes is as good as Precious I think that's a win. I will say that Holmes has shown more natural rim protection skills than Precious as a prospect. Holmes' block percentage each of his 3 college seasons was higher than that of Precious.

Other note: Dayton's Strength of Schedule (SOS) this past season was graded as 5.73. That's actually higher than Memphis' SOS from Precious' lone season--5.07.

Shooting is absolutely Holmes' swing skill. Without a viable 3 pt shot for a BIG, then he's a rim runner on offense and a versatile frontcourt defender on defense. But, all indications are he will be a MUCH better rim runner than Precious in the NBA. And I'm buying his trajectory to have a functional 3 in the NBA. I think with that functional 3, the upside of the size, versatile defense, and finishing and connectivity on offense playing alongside Bam and Jovic is real.

[greg4012]

Since Holmes opted out competing at the combine scrimmages. Let's look at Holmes vs D1 competition. So you can see his size and athleticism vs higher competition

Dayton vs Arizona
Holmes 23 pts, 11 rbs, 3 ast, 3 stls, 1 blk

Watch on YouTube

I want to like him but I just can't.

The combination of his age, his weak physic, the untrustworthy shot, the way he moves...He just doesn't pass the eye test.

To me he looks like the classic good college player with a game that won't translate at all.

A huge % of his positives plays just won't work against NBA bigs, he's not big enough or fast/explosive enough, and the skill isn't there to compensate.

I'd take him at #43..maybe. I won't go ANYWHERE NEAR him at #15.

I don't believe that "a huge % of his positive plays just won't work against NBA bigs". But I do agree that a lot of his back-to-the-basket post offense that he showed as a Soph and Junior won't be a major part of his NBA arsenal.

That's always my concern when I see slow-footed 6'7 240 lb PFs that put up great numbers living in the paint with a back-to-the-basket game finishing below the rim (think EJ Liddell).

What I see translating for Holmes is (1) pick and roll rim running; (2) catch and shoot 3s; and eventually (3) beating a clear mismatch in iso situations (that's where the post offense will show up in the future).

It's also important that he's shown improved passing chops year over year. If a high college scorer is a black hole on offense, then that's a huge obstacle to getting them to work as a connective piece at the next level where they don't warrant being a top offensive option.

Edit: the whole physique thing is basically that he's all legs with a high-cut waist. It's def not advantageous for getting low-man leverage but he seems to be a coordinated and functional mover all the same. 236 pounds is solid for a PF/C with his mobility. If he adds more weight might depend on his function at the next level.

[greg4012]

Since Holmes opted out competing at the combine scrimmages. Let's look at Holmes vs D1 competition. So you can see his size and athleticism vs higher competition

Dayton vs Arizona
Holmes 23 pts, 11 rbs, 3 ast, 3 stls, 1 blk

Watch on YouTube

Holmes' great stats aside, you can def see how Arizona's superior size across the board overwhelmed the whole Dayton team. Dayton's lack of size outside of Holmes stuck out to me in watching his junior tape. Holmes was the only regular rotation player over 200 pounds.