Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 4

[MiamiSun]

What was explained to me by someone who coaches this kind of play, is that having a center down low, mismatched against someone smaller means that after the basket he has to run all the way to the other end of the court back down low on defense. This energy asserted time after time will wear on the big and you are able to take advantage of that especially later in the gamer.

To the Spo supporters:

Instead of laughing at us and pretending you know better, try engaging in discussion, and be ready to explain the dumb crap that Spo does, like creating a defensive scheme that calls for Lowry to switch on to Jokic.

"Lol"

Has anyone who hated what Spoelstra does defensively ever thought about what the positives could be, that would be an excellent place to start vs this long time coach is just doing "dumb crap". This switching defense has really come to life since the 3 ball era so I'd have to expect part of the reason for this is to tempt team to go for 2 vs 3s.

None of us have the analytics that Spoelstra has available to him because there are a ton of numbers I'd be very interested in seeing for we all understand (and I suspect Spoelstra also understands) that a big has a huge advantage at scoring near the basket vs a small and in offensive rebounding, so we have to expect that there are other reasons to sometimes allow that to happen. We do know that Spoelstra does try to minimize this by sending in double teams from time to time.

On a guard switched onto a 5 in the low post there's a few different numbers that would be very interesting to see since clearly we can see that a big with a clean pass will have a huge advantage over a smaller player.
- Does switching everything stop some of the easy pass and scores that non switch sometimes produces with a good screen or good read for a higher percentage shot?
- How often does a team miss or lose the ball in that big vs small when a 2nd defender comes to help? I think Spoelstra actually allows some clean passes in to catch the other team off guard from time to time bringing a 2nd defender.
- Do teams throw the ball to the big more or less knowing a 2nd defender may help out even though they have a mismatch.
- An interesting thought, does Spoelstra want teams hunting for 2s vs 3s? Does this actually make teams/players concentrate on passing inside vs concentrate on getting a 3pt shot? In 2 of the last 3 seasons Miami's opponents have been near the bottom of teams for 3pt %.
- What is the points per possession from when a team tries to pass the ball to a mismatch near the basket when you calculate it from the passer to ending up in the basket. With a 2nd defender possibly coming over sometimes teams don't make that pass, sometimes it's tipped or even over thrown which we see from time to time. It would be really interesting to see those numbers vs when teams don't switch or if a bigger player is guarding the low post.

Just know there are pluses and minuses for every type of defense, yes there are issues with Miami switching but there are positives also. Although Lowry is small he's not nearly as helpless fighting a big in the low post as a regular PG would be which might be why Miami overpaid to get him in Miami, maybe in the future Miami may invest in bigger or better low post guards which might be why Miami was interested in Spencer Dinwiddie even with him coming off a horrible injury, outside of his stats you'd also have a 6'5'' PG in the low post defending bigs.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

If not for the injury it wouldn’t even be debatable

[AirP.]

Same rate of stats? Yurt is a better player and proved it with actual stats and not fantasy projections. He is needed.

Projections? PER36 is just a way to look at the CURRENT rate of stats they put up, TS%, ORTG and DRTG is based off current stats too but continue with your bias and don't look at the pros and cons of each player or situation.

Does Yurtseven have a much brighter future then Dedmon, absolutely but currently Dedmon is the better choice for backup 5.

Projections are not actual stats. They are fantasy. Case closed. Why is it so hard to appreciate what Yurtseven did this year? Spo's insecurities.

They aren't projections, they're ACTUAL STATS CUT UP INTO EASIER TO DIGEST NUMBERS because looking at a PER SINGLE MINUTE is too hard to really understand.

[harlem_ball]

Projections? PER36 is just a way to look at the CURRENT rate of stats they put up, TS%, ORTG and DRTG is based off current stats too but continue with your bias and don't look at the pros and cons of each player or situation.

Does Yurtseven have a much brighter future then Dedmon, absolutely but currently Dedmon is the better choice for backup 5.

Projections are not actual stats. They are fantasy. Case closed. Why is it so hard to appreciate what Yurtseven did this year? Spo's insecurities.

They aren't projections, they're ACTUAL STATS CUT UP INTO EASIER TO DIGEST NUMBERS because looking at a PER SINGLE MINUTE is too hard to really understand.

Per 36 are projected numbers per 36 minutes.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

[AirP.]

just curious - would you rather have :

Lowry
Herro
Jimmy
Tucker
Bam

Or

Lowry
Herro
Jimmy
Ingram
Yurt

As the starting 5 going forward?

I'm asking because iv'e got to admit - I'm a traditionalist at heat in terms of lineups.

I like my Center at 7'0, monstrous wingspan, great rebounder/shot blocker. That's not Bam.

I like my PF to be a great shooter/scorer with length and shot creation ability, That's not PJ.

Lowry/Herro/Jimmy are much closer to my ideal for their positions, they're closer to the old school prototypical PG/SG/SF.

A couple of issues with trading Bam... although he's an undersized big he's the only big who has a chance to slow up the bigger power players like Giannis, Embiid and Jokic and 2 of those players are in Miami's conference. If you can't slow down those bigs you're not going anywhere. So although that second lineup will do better against most teams, you're not going to have much of a chance going deep in the playoffs. Someone may mention Yurtseven had a good offensive game against Embiid this year, scored 22 pts and 11 rebounds because nobody had a scouting report on him and he does have skills but Embiid had 32 and 12 and Miami lost by 11 without Bam. Dedmon started a game this year against Embiid and put up 10 pts and 14 rebounds but limited Embiid to 17 pts and 14 rebounds and Miami won by 5 without Butler and Bam.

What I'd do(which Miami won't do)... I'd move Bam to PF and find a stretch 5 to have much more size at PF and C then what Miami currently has and some people on this board have identified M.Turner as a perfect fit for that or possibly someone like Valančiūnas. If Miami feels like rolling the dice go get someone like Mo Bamba. Miami just needs a 6'10'' or taller average or better big next to Bam to help out on rebounding because the gang rebounding might cut it in the regular season probably will not cut it when going against the better teams in the playoffs.

Yurtseven can be a good starter in the NBA but you need a PF with range and with that, not a good pairing with Bam. Now if they can really push Bam to start working on and shooting 3s that would change but I really feel Miami will be moving Butler to PF in a year or 2.

As a personal preference, I like legit sized centers who can shot block and finish alley oops or offensive rebounds.

[dshearn]

Not all that much their rookie years.

Heat need Yurt now. Pedantic reasoning and past processes are irrelevant. Systematic thinking over practical need? Flawed thinking.

"Oh, i need to poop but i can't poop until tomorrow because its not my time yet."

Spobotto the great.

What? It's basically you have a vet backup 5 and a rookie backup 5 doing nearly the same rate of stats, if you're trying to win you go with the vet, if you're looking to build for the future you go with the rookie, it's pretty simple.

This has to part of be the thinking the thinking..... maybe its locker room politics or something else also adding some slight gravity to the choice.

Without being in the practices or in the locker room there is too much data missing to do anything but speculate.

On the court however, my understanding is the biggest hurdle rookies have is fouling. Dedmon is a foul machine. Not many players in the history of basketball have more foul potential then Dedmon. Maybe it is intentional, maybe they are "smart calculated fouls" and you are trusting your vet to effect the score board with fouls and slow the game down to get Bam as much real time rest as possible with as little clock going by as possible.

In any case when the Heat get their backs to the wall in the playoffs, it would not sock me if Yurt gets on the court.

If there is not a crazy shake up in the offseason next season i look forward to the Lowery-Yurt connections.

[AirP.]

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McMahon doesn't have inside info on Michell not staying long term, it's his hunch and probably a good hunch.

If Utah gets bounced before the Western Conference Finals I believe Miami will put anyone outside of Bam and Butler on the table for Mitchell.

[harlem_ball]

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McMahon doesn't have inside info on Michell not staying long term, it's his hunch and probably a good hunch.

If Utah gets bounced before the Western Conference Finals I believe Miami will put anyone outside of Bam and Butler on the table for Mitchell.

You include Bam or Butler in a serious deal for Mitchell, sorry

[AirP.]

Read on Twitter

McMahon doesn't have inside info on Michell not staying long term, it's his hunch and probably a good hunch.

If Utah gets bounced before the Western Conference Finals I believe Miami will put anyone outside of Bam and Butler on the table for Mitchell.

You include Bam or Butler in a serious deal for Mitchell, sorry

If you're trying to build a championship squad and you're 77 years old (like Pat Riley) you don't add in Butler or Bam, if Pat was in his 60s I could see him absolutely adding them in if needed. I don't think Pat is going to make moves to make a run at a championsip at age 81.

[harlem_ball]

McMahon doesn't have inside info on Michell not staying long term, it's his hunch and probably a good hunch.

If Utah gets bounced before the Western Conference Finals I believe Miami will put anyone outside of Bam and Butler on the table for Mitchell.

You include Bam or Butler in a serious deal for Mitchell, sorry

If you're trying to build a championship squad and you're 77 years old (like Pat Riley) you don't add in Butler or Bam, if Pat was in his 60s I could see him absolutely adding them in if needed. I don't think Pat is going to make moves to make a run at a championsip at age 81.

If you're trying to win a championship you don't play small ball and sit Yurt either.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

McMahon doesn't have inside info on Michell not staying long term, it's his hunch and probably a good hunch.

If Utah gets bounced before the Western Conference Finals I believe Miami will put anyone outside of Bam and Butler on the table for Mitchell.

I’m thinking the same thing, the sooner they lose the better.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

You include Bam or Butler in a serious deal for Mitchell, sorry

If you're trying to build a championship squad and you're 77 years old (like Pat Riley) you don't add in Butler or Bam, if Pat was in his 60s I could see him absolutely adding them in if needed. I don't think Pat is going to make moves to make a run at a championsip at age 81.

If you're trying to win a championship you don't play small ball and sit Yurt either.

Yurt is not the difference between a championship or not.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

McMahon doesn't have inside info on Michell not staying long term, it's his hunch and probably a good hunch.

If Utah gets bounced before the Western Conference Finals I believe Miami will put anyone outside of Bam and Butler on the table for Mitchell.

You include Bam or Butler in a serious deal for Mitchell, sorry

Trading Bam for Mitchell defeats the purpose so no you don’t.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

I’ve believed since the trade deadline that this was our reasoning for not trading Duncan

[harlem_ball]

McMahon doesn't have inside info on Michell not staying long term, it's his hunch and probably a good hunch.

If Utah gets bounced before the Western Conference Finals I believe Miami will put anyone outside of Bam and Butler on the table for Mitchell.

You include Bam or Butler in a serious deal for Mitchell, sorry

Trading Bam for Mitchell defeats the purpose so no you don’t.

Good luck selling Utah on taking Butler's salary. Maybe they bite. Doubt it.

[harlem_ball]

If you're trying to build a championship squad and you're 77 years old (like Pat Riley) you don't add in Butler or Bam, if Pat was in his 60s I could see him absolutely adding them in if needed. I don't think Pat is going to make moves to make a run at a championsip at age 81.

If you're trying to win a championship you don't play small ball and sit Yurt either.

Yurt is not the difference between a championship or not.

Repeating the same nonsense, smallball is not a winner. Very dense.

[harlem_ball]

Heat need Yurt now. Pedantic reasoning and past processes are irrelevant. Systematic thinking over practical need? Flawed thinking.

"Oh, i need to poop but i can't poop until tomorrow because its not my time yet."

Spobotto the great.

What? It's basically you have a vet backup 5 and a rookie backup 5 doing nearly the same rate of stats, if you're trying to win you go with the vet, if you're looking to build for the future you go with the rookie, it's pretty simple.

This has to part of be the thinking the thinking..... maybe its locker room politics or something else also adding some slight gravity to the choice.

Without being in the practices or in the locker room there is too much data missing to do anything but speculate.

On the court however, my understanding is the biggest hurdle rookies have is fouling. Dedmon is a foul machine. Not many players in the history of basketball have more foul potential then Dedmon. Maybe it is intentional, maybe they are "smart calculated fouls" and you are trusting your vet to effect the score board with fouls and slow the game down to get Bam as much real time rest as possible with as little clock going by as possible.

In any case when the Heat get their backs to the wall in the playoffs, it would not sock me if Yurt gets on the court.

If there is not a crazy shake up in the offseason next season i look forward to the Lowery-Yurt connections.

Yurt can shoot 3s. Look at his g league videos. Thats why he's ideal next to Bam and why Riley was convinced to sign him.

Trade Spo.

[harlem_ball]

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[harlem_ball]

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