Tyler Herro signs 4 year 130 million extension

[al bondiga]

All sports fans are pretty bad, sports is kinda stupid in general, but for the sake of art... I digress

Sports isn't that stupid... "the show" is a bit

And that I mean not only baseball I mean every show nba,nfl,nhl,fifa,etc

[goodboy]

idk.

[Wiltside]

Grumpy must be losing his mind seeing Herro get $30m a year when KNunn is making $5m

[contract]

this is an obvious mistake. herro has to prove things on court BEFORE getting paid. riley getting soft in old age.

I was going to make a counter argument about Pat trying to goose Herro's perceived value by paying him more than he's worth ... but I deleted it because even I didn't believe my own bull. I wouldn't say that Pat is getting soft, I just think that there's always danger of inhaling the fumes you put out. Sometimes if you keep talking up your own guy, you start to believe the words that come out of your mouth. Can Herro become an all star? Sure, with enough shots. But that won't change the fact he's a "scorer" that you don't want leading your team in attempts and can't play a lick of defense.

[fishfuego.]

Definitely slightly enjoying the meltdown from the contingent of alleged Heat fans, who actually believed the Heat were NOT going to lock up one of their young cornerstones. And yes Tyler Herro is a young cornerstone. A young cornerstone who actually has great on court chemistry with our other young cornerstone (Bam).

We were 2 for 2 on those picks . And looking forward to them both showing continued improvement over the years.

I’m happy Herro is in the bag. Can wait for the upcoming season.

[fishfuego.]

Grumpy must be losing his mind seeing Herro get $30m a year when KNunn is making $5m

[contract]

This is a terrible deal. Pat Riley worries me. His position in the franchise should be questioned.

As a general rule everyone's position in the franchise should always be questioned. But in Pat's case, no not really. We are one of the better teams in the NBA and we have come pretty close to the title two of the past three years. We're probably one non-earth shattering trade away from doing it again IMO, so there's absolutely no reason to question Pat's role at this point.

This is not the first questionable decision he's made and it won't be the last, but he makes more good ones than bad ones. As long as that's the case it would be stupid to go in a different direction.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Damn y’all need to chill

At least see how he plays next season before you jump off a Cliff

arent you supposed to prove your worth BEFORE getting paid though

tyler has a bunch of question marks. if you still have to see something from him, then why are you paying him. this is backwards

I mean he’s improved each season, if that continues he’ll be worth the contract. The FO obviously liked what they saw in training camp, the held off on extending him for that very reason. He apparently proved himself

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I’m the biggest Herro Stan on here

[twix2500]

I’m the biggest Herro Stan on here

Lmao

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[contract]

Definitely slightly enjoying the meltdown from the contingent of alleged Heat fans, who actually believed the Heat were NOT going to lock up one of their young cornerstones. And yes Tyler Herro is a young cornerstone. A young cornerstone who actually has great on court chemistry with our other young cornerstone (Bam).

We were 2 for 2 on those picks . And looking forward to them both showing continued improvement over the years.

Calling Herro a cornerstone like we didn't just spend months trying to trade him for multiple players? Herro was available for trade. Bam was not. Jimmy was not. What does that tell you?

Herro is not a cornerstone player. He will always be a guy we're trying to flip for someone better.

And the "alleged Heat fan" stuff ...

[contract]

Grumpy must be losing his mind seeing Herro get $30m a year when KNunn is making $5m

So am I. I'm not sure we couldn't get similar performance out of Nunn at a fraction of the price. Assuming he ever recovers from that bone bruise.

[wade44]

We should have let Herro go to RFA and let the market determine his value. Paying him $30M a year is ludicrous! One dimensional player for that kind of money is a bad move. Who cares what the Knicks paid RJ Barrett? There has to be a trade coming. May as well get Westbrooks expiring for Lowry and Duncan. We need to keep Dipo and Strus but cant with a Herro contract like that.

This reminds me of the lame contracts given to Whiteside, JJ, and Dion. Riley needs his head examined!

We’d be paying the same amount in matching him in RFA for the same amount of years. We just got it done 1 year prior to not have a dark cloud hanging over the next season

We have no idea if Herro would get this offer in free agency. Restricted or otherwise.

Assuming he didn't fall off a cliff this season, yes that would be the going rate for a player like him. RJ Barett who is a similar caliber/age player just got 4 years 120 from the knicks. With the cap increasing every season, I have no doubt a team would offer him the same deal next summer. We as fans just have to hope for the best + hope that he can stay motivated and hungry enough to live up to his deal so that the Bam/Herro core can be a contender & blue chip team for years to come

[HeatFanLifer]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

I go away for 2 days. 2 days. And this hits me like:




The only reason this happened is because the Heat struck out in the offseason. This is a move similar to the Heat re-signing Mion and JJ after realizing they could not get anyone else.

Blaming Iggie for this is too easy. So I blame Chalm and Iggie. SMH.

[fishfuego.]

I’m the biggest Herro Stan on here

Lmao

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Hold steady, we’re almost there!

[puppa bear]

So Herro gets signed to a market deal, after ballin out in camp (multiple people have said so), and we all go nuts?

We knew that he was gonna be extended, unless he was needed for a true whale. There aren’t any available, and he’s ticked the boxes he was asked to. This seems like the classic Heat FO move. Not sure why so much of this board is losing their chit.

[Wiltside]

So Herro gets signed to a market deal, after ballin out in camp (multiple people have said so), and we all go nuts?

We knew that he was gonna be extended, unless he was needed for a true whale. There aren’t any available, and he’s ticked the boxes he was asked to. This seems like the classic Heat FO move. Not sure why so much of this board is losing their chit.

Once the KD move full through, it was clear an extension was likely before the season. It’s good business.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

He didn’t have much value on the market apparently anyways. For whatever reason. Just unprotect our picks if a star becomes available

[BenoUdrihFTL]

Spoiler:

Well, if you ignore they were starters vs Herro being a 6th man. They played against starters more then Herro did to achieve their numbers. Herro did start 10 games last year, they weren't good numbers, TS% of 472 is horrible. Also his last 2 playoffs have been pretty bad. He scored 24 vs Atlanta and then the next game vs them 3 pts on 1 of 8 shooting.

Still dying on that 10 game sample size hill huh. I'll admit this is kinda frustrating but I'll try again, if not to convince you of anything but to give some contextual information to anyone reading this

But of course, it's the times I know Herro is playing against higher level talent most of the game... well, when playing as a starter and playing against playoff teams where he's not been so great either, it's just odd that both of those situations usually mean Herro's playing against the better players more often but just completely ignore that as usual.

I don't think anyone is claiming that 22yo Herro was ready to effectively anchor a severely depleted offense last season, yet that's precisely the scenario he most often found himself in as a starter:

6/10 games without Butler
8/10 games without Bam
4/10 games without Butler and Bam

To make matters worse:

6/10 games on extended WC road trips
2/10 games on a b2b EC road trip
8/10 games overall on the road
5/10 games (4 on the road) vs teams with an avg rDRTG of -2.2 (would rank 8th best in the league)

Without Butler for 60% of these games, Herro was the only Heat player who could consistently create his own shot. Without Bam for 80% of these games, there's zero interior scoring threat to keep defenses honest. Without both Butler and Bam for 40% of these games, you're just throwing the entire kitchen plus the sink at Herro and simply putting any 3rd year onball scoring SG in an almost impossible position to succeed

He was just taking a lot of shots. I remember a Miami team without Herro, Butler or Bam going into Philly winning, the next game, still missing those 3 against Orlando Vincent put up 27, Strus 32 off the bench and Lowry 15 assists. Now the 3rd game they flopped without those 3 in Detroit losing by 10 with everyone but Strus shooting bad.

Now there were times when the team wasn't doing well offensively in the 1st quarter and Herro came out firing and hitting, but backups were already coming in the game at that time too and Herro is skilled enough to tear up bad defenders, it's why I'm kinda fine with his as a scoring 6th man which normally go to offensive only players.

Add in 80% of these games coming on road trips -- where even veteran players are often subject to substandard performances -- and now you're eliminating practice and rest from the equation of shuffling lineups and roles on the fly

So, I'll ask, did you seriously expect Herro's efficiency over these 10 games to be anything remotely near his overall season average? Hell, peak LeBron James lost his two best offensive teammates in the 2015 Finals and saw his efficiency absolutely plummet to 47.7% TS

His TS% dropped by .108, his FG% went from 46% as a reserve to 38% as a starter, the 3pt% went from 42% down to 30% and his ORTG went from 109 as a reserve to 95 as a starter. He's a talented guy but to throw that much money at him is a HUGE risk when he's not exactly shown the scoring ability against quality opponents when Miami needed it, it's not just a big risk for the amount of money he's getting but what Miami will have to do with players next season to say under the tax or at least not go over it much.

I had hoped to see Herro do well in the playoffs this year, to show he could do now that there's more tape on him, better scouting reports and we know for sure teams are gameplanning for him, but we didn't get to see that.

As of now he reminds me of players like Jamal Crawford or Ben Gordon, both really nice scorers but they're not really going to be players you want as your top paid guys on your roster if you have Championship aspirations.

A small market or just bad franchise would LOVE to have a guy like Herro, it gives them hope but if you're chasing a championship, you want a more proof or more good history before making such a drastic move with your franchise, this signing will change this team greatly by the start of next season, I don't see letting Butler get another year older and thinking next summer you'll move Herro + x to get a star.

So again you refuse to acknowledge the very important and relevant context informing why Herro's 10 whole games as a starter by definition meant that the offense was already significantly depleted and therefore not a useful sample for analysis of Herro's value on this team (if we can presume this team is meant to include Butler and Bam). He posted a TS over 55% as a starter in 2021 (in 50% more games), so either he dramatically regressed in 2022 or perhaps there's something to the fact that 60% of those 2021 starts (compared to 0% in 2022) were with both Butler and Bam. Perhaps there's something to the fact that 2021's starts came within the steady familiar flow of the intended role both he and the team were practicing and gameplanning for (14 of 15 starts came in his first 14 games as he was a designated starter heading into the season), compared to 2022 when from day 1 he was the designated 6th man and was only sporadically thrust into the SL in times of emergency lineup shuffling

Want to know when we can deduce that Herro played significant minutes with Butler and Bam against starters, and with a far superior sample size to boot? Herro played the 6th most 4th quarter mins in the NBA last season wherein he averaged 22.3 points per 36 on over 59% TS. This is his overall average 4th quarter performance across all the games he played over the entire season, against all teams he played, with all lineups he was a part of. It doesn't isolate a handful of games when injuries to his best teammates allowed opponents to load up on him, or cherry pick games against top defenses -- we don't evaluate any players' worth based strictly on universally least favorable scenarios and yet for some reason this is the standard we're holding 22yo Tyler Herro to?

[AirP.]

So again you refuse to acknowledge the very important and relevant context informing why Herro's 10 whole games as a starter by definition meant that the offense was already significantly depleted and therefore not a useful sample for analysis of Herro's value on this team (if we can assume this team is meant to include Butler and Bam). He posted a TS over 55% as a starter in 2021 (in 50% more games), so either he dramatically regressed in 2022 or perhaps there's something to the fact that 60% of those 2021 starts (compared to 0% in 2022) were with both Butler and Bam. Perhaps there's something to the fact that 2021's starts came within the steady familiar flow of the intended role both he and the team practiced and gameplanned for (14 of 15 starts came in his first 14 games as he was a designated starter heading into the season), compared to 2022 when from day 1 he was the designated 6th man and was only sporadically thrust into the SL in times of emergency lineup shuffling

Since I don't have the stats of Herro vs good defenders and Herro vs bad defenders I look at situations that tend to be Herro vs better defenders like... going against starters (which should be the better players on a team) and playoff teams (which tend to have more good defenders) vs caring a whole lot that Herro can score at will say... the Hornets. Boston, who was a great defensive team last year Herro had horrible stats vs them in 3 games. I don't know what to tell you, Herro is skilled enough to really make bad defenders pay but not the athletic ability to do the same vs the better defenders which he'll end up having to play against since he'll be a bigger part of the payroll. I see him as a good scorer in the regular season, not so much in the playoffs, it's possible he gains the counters to change that, but he hadn't up to this last season.

It's just weird, if I don't say Herro is just "incredible" I must say he sucks. No, he's highly skilled where he can eat up bad defenders and even some average defenders, not everyone can do that. He just has been really bad on defense and with that combo I wouldn't invest a lot of money on him. I even said last year he could average over 20 a game if he concentrated on scoring which 17 shots a game kind of indicates. What's going to be interesting is what Herro could end up being a better player this year and actually score less per game, will he be a worse player? No, it'll be that his role had changed.

2021... I don't think he was nearly as bad as a starter as other people though, his offense was fine for his 2nd year, it was his defense which was and still is a big issue.

BTW... I wouldn't pay players like Beal or LaVine big money either to let you know where I'm coming from. Replace Beal with a guy like Butler and that team is a way better team since he plays well both ways.

Want to know when we can deduce that Herro was playing significant minutes with Butler and Bam against starters, and with a far superior sample size to boot? Herro played the 6th most 4th quarter mins in the NBA last season wherein he averaged 22.3 points per 36 on over 59% TS. This is his overall 4th quarter average performance across all the games he played over the entire season, against all teams he played, with all lineups he was a part of. It doesn't isolate a handful of games when injuries to his best teammates allowed opponents to load up on him, or cherry pick games against top defenses -- we don't evaluate any players' worth based strictly on universally least favorable scenarios and yet for some reason this is the standard we're holding 22yo Tyler Herro to?

Yes, Herro played a ton of minutes which also means he was playing a lot of bench guys for the first 2-6 minutes of the 4th quarter and also some games that were out of reach whereas players like Bam and Butler would go to the bench. I really need to get pbp data to extract to get some numbers that could either strengthen or weaken my argument.

BTW... everyone was good with Butler or Bam, another reason I'm not sure Herro is a good value at his new contract vs someone else who can be good in the same role.

Butler with X is +/- pts per 100

Spoiler:

Strus +10.4
Martin +10
Tucker +6.7
Bam +5.9
Dedmon +5.9
Lowry +5.7
Herro +5
Robinson +4.9
Vincent +4.6

Bam with X +/- pts per 100

Spoiler:

Strus +11.9
Herro +9.9
Oladipo +9.6 <- low data
Lowry +9.2
Morris +7.2 <- low data
Martin +7
Tucker +6.7
Vincet +6.7
Robinson +6.3
Butler +5.9

If the goal is to win a championship, you need a bad defender to be a dominate scorer which Robinson was the Bubble season, not so much last year which is why he got replaced. I don't think Herro's offense is good enough to make up for his defense and I'm not sure it ever will but we'll see in the next few years. Hopefully I'm wrong, I get that there's a chance he becomes a high-level scorer, I just don't think it's all that high of a chance.