Miami Heat Offseason Thread 8.0 - 47 cRonin and the inevitable seppuku

[powerball1373]

I watched the video, he makes a compelling argument on paper but its still a team that's not ready to compete for a championship.

This OKC team as currently constructed hasn't even made the playoffs in the West yet, they are not going to go from out of the playoffs to contender just by adding Dame.

At best they'll make the playoffs and get outclassed by a more experienced team.

Similar situation just happened with Cleveland, they traded for Mitchell and have a bunch of bright young prospects on their roster but ultimately it resulted in a first round exit because they are not experienced enough in playoff basketball.

Dame has a a 3 year window here to make a real run at it as a go to guy before he's Chris Paul bouncing around the league trying to find the place he can win one, he hasn't got time to bet on the potential of something. Miami is the closest thing to a guarantee he has that the team will do everything it can to put itself in a position to win every year that he's here.

OKC aren't going to trade their picks they will keep building through the draft and when the right player presents itself that fits their timeline. Someone more around SGA's age then they will likely make a move for that player. OKC has positioned themselves better than any rebuilding team can for the next 10+ years they will be very calculated about any moves they make.

Fair, but I think OKCs young guys are further along than Cleveland's. Specifically SGA, who already made All-NBA First Team. If he takes another leap as expected, they're gonna be serious.

SGA > Garland, but Cleveland's young front court is formidable.

Agreed. Also, I'm not saying Dame makes them immediate title contenders, but it's an interesting thought that nobody is talking about. I could see them making a Kings-like improvement this year without Dame, so it's conceivable they'd be a year away with him.

[Daffy]

Murray and Ja are what?

Have you already forgotten how Murray & Jokic tore us apart. Dame isn't going to Denver. Forget it.

Ja is a freak but he's excellent.

If I am building a team and can choose any point guard in the league, I would probably take Dame fifth. I have Steph, SGA, Ja, and Luka as better. Fox in Sacramento is about the same. Garland and Brunson, too, are very good. I'm not as excited about Lillard as most of you are.

Let's be real for a minute. Let's ignore fit and pretend we aren't even talking about bringing said PG to Miami. I'll give you Steph, I can definitely see the argument for Shai, Luka easily. In no world is Ja or Fox a better PG than Dame currently. If you tell me you're factoring their age then sure but then that would also take Curry out of the conversation as well.

[gom]

Age and contract.

Ja is a poor shooter but is still 38.1 pts per 100 possessions and has 2 more assists per 36 minutes than Lillard. Lillard is a very poor defender. Murray is perfect in Denver. Lillard shoots and drives. He is excellent. Ja is too. Not sure why you can't see that Memphis isn't trading up for Lillard when they have Ja.

Ok, Ja (like Kyrie) is a head case. I would happily make a blockbuster deal for Luka or even Fox, but not for Kyrie or Ja. Even so, they are excellent. I don't believe Miami is competing against Dallas or Memphis for Dame. Much less Denver.

You can argue about where I assign their value, but the fact remains we are competing against few teams and perhaps none at all for Lillard.

Morant's contract:

[gom]

Fox, by the way, was one of the best point guards in the league last season. Kings had best offense. Fox is a star, but he plays in Sacramento, so yawn... If we had a chance for hiim, I'd trade everyone but Bam and Jimmy. I don't feel that way about Dame.

Lillard was 11th in the league in pts scored.
Fox was 12th. 40 pts apart.




Rk Player Pos Age G MP FG FGA FG% 3P% 2P% eFG% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL TOV PTS

27 Jalen Williams SG 21 75 2276 414 794 .521 .356 .579 .567 155 191 .812 337 248 103 123 1056
31 Markelle Fultz PG 24 60 1778 349 679 .514 .310 .544 .534 112 143 .783 234 341 87 139 837
32 De'Aaron Fox PG 25 73 2435 682 1331 .512 .324 .584 .557 343 440 .780 306 447 83 181 1826
34 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 24 68 2416 704 1381 .510 .345 .533 .531 669 739 .905 329 371 112 192 2135
37 Bradley Beal SG 29 50 1673 444 878 .506 .365 .552 .551 192 228 .842 196 271 45 145 1160
43 Luka Dončić PG 23 66 2391 719 1449 .496 .342 .588 .560 515 694 .742 569 529 90 236 2138
45 Kyrie Irving PG-SG 30 60 2241 594 1203 .494 .379 .574 .572 247 273 .905 304 331 66 128 1623
46 Devin Booker SG 26 53 1835 527 1067 .494 .351 .554 .546 306 358 .855 240 293 51 145 1471
47 Stephen Curry PG 34 56 1941 559 1133 .493 .427 .579 .614 257 281 .915 341 352 52 179 1648
49 Jalen Brunson PG 26 68 2379 587 1195 .491 .416 .519 .547 325 392 .829 241 421 61 142 1633
50 Tyrese Haliburton PG 22 56 1883 412 841 .490 .400 .572 .586 175 201 .871 205 585 91 141 1160
53 Zach LaVine SG 27 77 2768 673 1388 .485 .375 .556 .558 363 428 .848 345 327 69 194 1913
55 Kevin Huerter SG 24 75 2203 420 866 .485 .402 .604 .603 95 131 .725 251 221 80 97 1140
56 Donovan Mitchell SG 26 68 2432 679 1402 .484 .386 .566 .572 319 368 .867 289 301 99 180 1922
59 Malcolm Brogdon PG 30 67 1744 354 732 .484 .444 .510 .574 160 184 .870 280 248 45 98 1000
62 Tyrese Maxey SG 22 60 2016 439 913 .481 .434 .513 .568 180 213 .845 176 212 49 80 1218
64 Jrue Holiday PG 32 67 2183 490 1023 .479 .384 .542 .556 152 177 .859 341 495 79 197 1290
65 Desmond Bane SG 24 58 1841 450 939 .479 .408 .534 .568 181 205 .883 291 254 56 126 1247
66 Norman Powell SG 29 60 1567 340 710 .479 .397 .534 .559 225 277 .812 175 109 50 101 1019
70 Shaedon Sharpe SG 19 80 1779 306 648 .472 .360 .559 .551 75 105 .714 236 94 38 83 789
71 D'Angelo Russell PG 26 71 2304 445 948 .469 .396 .548 .572 179 216 .829 215 437 70 186 1263
74 Ja Morant PG 23 61 1948 566 1214 .466 .307 .519 .504 372 497 .748 357 493 66 206 1596
75 Dejounte Murray SG 26 74 2693 612 1319 .464 .344 .514 .514 158 190 .832 389 448 112 160 1515
77 Damian Lillard PG 32 58 2107 556 1202 .463 .371 .574 .564 510 558 .914 277 425 50 191 1866
78 Darius Garland PG 23 69 2447 522 1129 .462 .410 .492 .537 277 321 .863 185 538 85 199 1490
79 Derrick White SG 28 82 2319 350 758 .462 .381 .548 .560 168 192 .875 293 321 54 95 1017
81 Anthony Edwards SG 21 79 2842 707 1541 .459 .369 .513 .528 319 422 .756 458 350 125 259 1946
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/11/2023.

[Daffy]

Age and contract.

Ja is a poor shooter but is still 38.1 pts per 100 possessions and has 2 more assists per 36 minutes than Lillard. Lillard is a very poor defender. Murray is perfect in Denver. Lillard shoots and drives. He is excellent. Ja is too. Not sure why you can't see that Memphis isn't trading up for Lillard when they have Ja.

Ok, Ja (like Kyrie) is a head case. I would happily make a blockbuster deal for Luka or even Fox, but not for Kyrie or Ja. Even so, they are excellent. I don't believe Miami is competing against Dallas or Memphis for Dame. Much less Denver.

You can argue about where I assign their value, but the fact remains we are competing against few teams and perhaps none at all for Lillard.

Morant's contract:

I think we're debating two different things. I'm not arguing that Memphis, Denver or any of those teams are trading for Dame. I'm talking about which player is better as an individual talent. My bad if I confused you.

[twix2500]

I don't believe the Heat are shopping Herro around I believe its actually Portland shopping Herro around.

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[Daffy]

Age and contract.

Ja is a poor shooter but is still 38.1 pts per 100 possessions and has 2 more assists per 36 minutes than Lillard. Lillard is a very poor defender. Murray is perfect in Denver. Lillard shoots and drives. He is excellent. Ja is too. Not sure why you can't see that Memphis isn't trading up for Lillard when they have Ja.

Ok, Ja (like Kyrie) is a head case. I would happily make a blockbuster deal for Luka or even Fox, but not for Kyrie or Ja. Even so, they are excellent. I don't believe Miami is competing against Dallas or Memphis for Dame. Much less Denver.

You can argue about where I assign their value, but the fact remains we are competing against few teams and perhaps none at all for Lillard.

Morant's contract:

Ok I see there was a disconnect between our two points. I will say his age and contract isn't ideal but honestly it's the best chance we have in front of us to contend with Bam and Jimmy. This is the 2nd time we fell short in the finals because of the same 2 issues. Lack of rebounding/size and running out of gas on offense in the finals. I think we've addressed the size issue by adding Love (full off-season) and Bryant. I think Robinson might see a little more time on the court vs what Yurt gave us last season. If the plan isn't for him to play I think we add another big. Dame would help big time with our offensive struggles. I don't think he'll fix it by himself but it would be a huge step in the right direction. I still think we would need some more bench scoring.

[Daffy]

I don't believe the Heat are shipping Herro around I believe its actually Portland shopping Herro around.

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I think they both are. If they both want a deal to be done they're both sending out possible packages to teams to gauge what the return would be.

[gom]

I am very worried about Dame's defensive game, which is abysmal. Even Fox is better.

[ShulaDon92]

I am very worried about Dame's defensive game, which is abysmal. Even Fox is better.

Heat hoping Richardson can bolster the perimeter defense

-SHULA

[Daffy]

I am very worried about Dame's defensive game, which is abysmal. Even Fox is better.

I think being on a team with multiple plus defenders along with a coach who's known for getting the most out of his players defensively could only help and benefit Dame. I mean its not like Strus or Herro were great defenders either.

[ShulaDon92]

I am very worried about Dame's defensive game, which is abysmal. Even Fox is better.

I think being on a team with multiple plus defenders along with a coach who's known for getting the most out of his players defensively could only help and benefit Dame. I mean its not like Strus or Herro were great defenders either.

Strus was a decent defender and graded well as was Vincent. Butler Strus was a plus combo

-SHULA

[3ballbomber]

I am very worried about Dame's defensive game, which is abysmal. Even Fox is better.

I think being on a team with multiple plus defenders along with a coach who's known for getting the most out of his players defensively could only help and benefit Dame. I mean its not like Strus or Herro were great defenders either.

Yeah, we can make it work. It's a good problem to have w/ a player of Lillards caliber who just averaged 32ppg last season & has the capability to drop 30-50+. The offense can def offset any defensive limitations. Besides, he's never been asked to make defense an obligation & may even improve it here under the guidance of defensive minded coaches, GM & culture.

[HIF]

gom, thanks for entertaining this mental exercise with me and for providing your own analysis and insight. Based on your push and attention to detail… I decided to refer to and read the actual new CBA for the accurate calculations… to not assume or mislead. This is what I found:

Cap Holds for rosters under 12
Per VII.4.f of the new CBA, you must apply a cap hold equal to the Rookie Minimum for each empty roster spot under 12 before determining and using your available cap space to offer Free Agent contracts.

What I used:
Rather than trying to predict who will be on the team those years, for how long, and at what amount, I simply filled in the years after our current contracts expire with these empty roster spot cap holds (up to 12). I know this is pie in the sky as we will likely sign other players to multi-year deals from here to then, but most posters in here want to hope for DM and Tatum, so I assumed maximum cap stringiness moving forward and assumed that as contracts expired, we would only do 1 year vet min deals that would expire each year thus resetting the books to cap holds every year…. thus the empty roster spot cap holds equal to rookie mins in orange. The only player I did a bird right cap hold for was Bam (also in orange). With that said, you are right that we are required to carry more than just 12 players… but for cap space purposes at the start of FA each year, I assumed we would be letting players expire and dipping us under 12.

Calculating Luxury Tax and Tax Aprons
Per VII.2.a.6 of the new CBA:
Salary cap - cannot drop below the previous season’s salary cap(worst case scenario) and cannot exceed 110% of the previous seasons salary cap(best case scenario).

What I used:
I went with best case scenario + a projected salary cap jump in 2025 due to “a new TV deal”… again assuming the best case scenario everyone in here hopes for.

Per VII.2.a.4 of the new CBA:
Tax Level = 121.5% of the salary cap
1st Apron = In a nutshell, moving forward it’s equal to the 23/24 1st apron amount times % growth of the salary cap since the 23/24 season.
2nd apron = $17.5 mil times the % growth of the salary cap since 23/24 season.

I have to update these confirmed calculations into my spreadsheet for accuracy, but my previous assumptions/calculations weren’t far off of this.

The New CBA:
https://imgix.cosmicjs.com/25da5eb0-15eb-11ee-b5b3-fbd321202bdf-Final-2023-NBA-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement-6-28-23.pdf

How many of you went straight past this post without reading it?

Understanding the cap intricacies is not for everyone… I get it. With that being said… understanding them is important in understanding the type of impact a contract like Dame’s will have on our future maneuverability. This then allows you to think rationally on the types of offers you are willing to make for such player/contract like Dame’s.

Some in here, i.e. gom and ICC, were interested in taking part in some sort of higher level analysis and brainstorming. Others may be interested to read it to absorb some of those intricacies. Others may not care and only care to view the transaction based on player abilities and potential. To each their own.

I choose to view this from multiple layers and thus shared my perspective in case others also wanted to elevate the lens on how we view and analyze this situation.

Rather than simply scrolling past it… you posted this…. what is your intent with this post?

Interesting but too long in the modern era. This is the "summarised generation" Knock yourselves out though.

[dean456]

Read on Twitter

Listening to Shams here it sounds like Riley may not be making moves to get an additional pick by removing protections from OKC.

Either Pat is flipping just the one pick he gets from Herro and offering 3FRPs or if the team trading for Herro is sending 2FRPs out then he will send those out.

I've seen people saying that if we get a 2025 pick from BKN it would allow us to trade our 2024 and 2026 picks as well as our 2028 and 2030 picks. But as far as I know that would still only allow us to send 2024, 2028 and 2030 right? Because of protections on the 2025 pick if it doesn't convey we would then need to send them our unprotected 2026 pick so we can't trade it twice.

I wonder if Pat is just acting like OKC playing hardball too much and won't free up our 2025 pick so we are stuck only being able to send 3FRPs. That way we can retain our own picks in 2024 and 2025/2026 allowing us to still bring in young talent for when the Dame/Jimmy/Bam run ends.

Jovic Lowry, DFS or O'Neale and 3FRPs + 2nds and FRP swaps for Lillard may be the extent of the deal currently that's why Portland are choosing to wait.

[Daffy]

I got a good feeling about today boys.

[Wiltside]

I got a good feeling about today boys.

Sure hope so Daffy. My thread is down to 18 pages remaining.

Gonna be a fat L if I don’t deliver

[contract]

If there’s 2 things we know for certain:

1. Pat Riley ALWAYS gets his whale.

2. You know who gets to post by a different set of rules than everyone else on RealGM.

Cmon man, if you truly think that, you’re out of your mind. “You know who” has been banned multiple times too when he clearly well oversteps the line. I’m getting pretty tired of this rhetoric. The Mods here all do our best to try and keep this chit going. That’s inbetween our day jobs, kids, life.

We’re a pretty clear and open forum. Play by the rules and you’re good. Act like a dick and you’ll get banned. Continue to act like a dick and there will be consequences. It’s that simple. There’s no agenda and no bias towards certain posters.

Not sure why you had to justify anything to her. Mods do a solid job here - better than her tiring sarcasm attempts towards Riley.

Spoiler:

It was nice knowing you.

[contract]

I got a good feeling about today boys.

Sure hope so Daffy. My thread is down to 18 pages remaining.

Gonna be a fat L if I don’t deliver

[contract]

Here's an idea mods may want to run past Howard ... instead of outright banning people who can't get along, enable mods to ban them from viewing each other's posts. I don't know if the board software allows it, but it would save you guys a ton of headaches without continuing to thin out activity.