Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I don't see the lightning rod for praise part. He is easily the most criticized on the team without any pushback whatsoever. He's often scapegoated for things that everyone on the team is doing. I've seen Herro get raked over the coals for poor shooting nights when Jimmy shot worse. Crapped on for turning over the ball, when Bam got more turnovers. That's not to say its not somewhat understandable because those two bring other things that Herro doesn't, but a few posters act like Herro isn't a 20 point scorer on a team anemic with offense, especially with the way Duncan has played all year, and instant offense off the bench.

Spo is another person always scapegoated on here. That one is the one that pisses me off the most because its like if you look at this team roster compounded with the injuries we've sustained and see what the hell our record is, you have to be an absolute **** to give him the grief he's given.

People got more defensive about me rightfully calling Duncan trash than any criticism Herro gets. I had one weirdo quote me with an essay of condescension because I basically just said Yogurt has things he needs to work on But you can **** on Tyler without any real flinching on here. Its basically the same 3 or 4 posters though, 2 of which are in this thread doing what they do. So its easy to not take them seriously on anything Herro related, because they will warp whatever he does into a negative and use some "advanced stats" to justify their hate instead of just saying with their chest they don't like Herro and never have. But still, its crazy.

I wouldn’t say anemic offensively when we’re the 6th best offense in the league with Herro and Duncan having the least efficient offensive seasons of their careers.

And that offense is largely a credit to Spo, who is almost equally as scapegoated as Tyler.

Spo is the best coach in the world. My point was you all are saying Herro Carries the offense when he’s actually having the least efficient offensive season of his career.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

You guys gotta stop comparing Herro to Bam, it’s not even close.

I don’t think Herro sucks, which is why I think he can net us a star in a trade.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

and by the way, I will defend Robinson all day.

Because Duncan Robinson is one of those elite 3pt shooters that can single handedly win you a playoff series when they catch fire and steal 2 games because they went 8 of 13 from 3pt or something. That's who he is. He's a lethal game changer that can go off at ANY time, and even when he is struggling, opposing teams have to respect his presence and cover him. Because if they leave him open or sag off him on defense, and Robinson makes a couple shots and starts feeling it, he becomes a GAME CHANGING NIGHTMARE.

Even when he is struggling, Robinson has a gravitational field that forces defenders to watch him, which helps everyone else with spacing.


Herro on the other hand, is a huge question mark and is mostly inefficient, and his defense is bad. He won't change the course of a playoff series like Robinson can if Robinson gets hot.

I would disagree. I hot Herro can change a playoff series like he did against the Celtics in the ECF.

Like Robinson though he can also lose you a series because if they go cold they’re average at best everywhere else

[Wiltside]

Herro on the other hand, is a huge question mark and is mostly inefficient, and his defense is bad. He won't change the course of a playoff series like Robinson can if Robinson gets hot.

Grumpy pls

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[Shewasfly]

I wouldn’t say anemic offensively when we’re the 6th best offense in the league with Herro and Duncan having the least efficient offensive seasons of their careers.

And that offense is largely a credit to Spo, who is almost equally as scapegoated as Tyler.

Spo is the best coach in the world. My point was you all are saying Herro Carries the offense when he’s actually having the least efficient offensive season of his career.

?? I never made that comment. That said I don't think efficiency would be the end all be all in terms of measuring if someone is carrying an offense.

As far as Herro and Bam, Bam is clearly the superior player all around. But Herro is way more skilled and quite frankly flat out better offensively. Same way Herro is not close to him defensively.

[MettaWorldPanda]

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[Wiltside]

And that offense is largely a credit to Spo, who is almost equally as scapegoated as Tyler.

Spo is the best coach in the world. My point was you all are saying Herro Carries the offense when he’s actually having the least efficient offensive season of his career.

?? I never made that comment. That said I don't think efficiency would be the end all be all in terms of measuring if someone is carrying an offense.

As far as Herro and Bam, Bam is clearly the superior player all around. But Herro is way more skilled and quite frankly flat out better offensively. Same way Herro is not close to him defensively.

I also think the efficiency and usage are interlinked. We have to have his usage as he's one of the most offensively gifted players on our team, and he can create his own look and for others. We can't throw the rock to Duncan or Strus etc and expect them to create the same opportunities as Tyler - it's just not their games and would be doing them a disservice. They're catch and shoot guys, not big off the dribble threats.

Tyler has the ability to shift gears, get into the paint, pull up etc that many on our team don't. Particularly when we have no Jimmy and no Bam out there. This can then lead to inefficient outings if his J isn't falling - but it's necessary for us to remain competitive while our stars are out.

There's a reason why Tyler has such a high usage rate. It's necessity.

[twix2500]

and by the way, I will defend Robinson all day.

Because Duncan Robinson is one of those elite 3pt shooters that can single handedly win you a playoff series when they catch fire and steal 2 games because they went 8 of 13 from 3pt or something. That's who he is. He's a lethal game changer that can go off at ANY time, and even when he is struggling, opposing teams have to respect his presence and cover him. Because if they leave him open or sag off him on defense, and Robinson makes a couple shots and starts feeling it, he becomes a GAME CHANGING NIGHTMARE.

Even when he is struggling, Robinson has a gravitational field that forces defenders to watch him, which helps everyone else with spacing.


Herro on the other hand, is a huge question mark and is mostly inefficient, and his defense is bad. He won't change the course of a playoff series like Robinson can if Robinson gets hot.

I would disagree. I hot Herro can change a playoff series like he did against the Celtics in the ECF.

Like Robinson though he can also lose you a series because if they go cold they’re average at best everywhere else

The player who takes the most FGA is the most likely player to cause you to lose a game. Herro is averaging 18 fga the most on the team and Duncan is average 10 fga which is likely to drop when the team is healthy. If Herro shoots a low percentage he has the biggest impact in losing. If Duncan shoots a low percentage he will have a lesser impact. How ever because of Duncan 3 pt shooting he can have a big impact on small fga.

That is why the Heat puts Duncan in the starting lineup because he can be a big impact on a low fga next to high fga players in Butler and Bam (when he is aggressive).

It is highly important for high FGA player to be efficient.

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[Flash4thewin]

For the record, I'm comfortable keeping and extending Tyler. His timeline lines up nicely with Bam at any rate, and he's helping now anyway. He can and should continue to get better.

But I would trade the kid for Jaylen Brown. That's a young, two-way wing with size locked in for 3yrs (conveniently when Lowry expires).

Can we without the tax? Bam is getting the Max, Butler is getting the Max, Lowry is getting 30 mil, Duncan is getting 15 mil. UD will be here until hes in his 50’s. What would Tyler’s max be?

[Wiltside]

For the record, I'm comfortable keeping and extending Tyler. His timeline lines up nicely with Bam at any rate, and he's helping now anyway. He can and should continue to get better.

But I would trade the kid for Jaylen Brown. That's a young, two-way wing with size locked in for 3yrs (conveniently when Lowry expires).

Can we without the tax? Bam is getting the Max, Butler is getting the Max, Lowry is getting 30 mil, Duncan is getting 15 mil. UD will be here until hes in his 50’s. What would Tyler’s max be?

Not sure - I'd suggest we'll be in tax territory, but keep in mind you have a fair bit of time to get below the tax line before it becomes an issue.

[3ballbomber]

Some of you clearly have no idea of the value Herro would have around the league. Boston would send out Brown without a second thought. They would do anything to have a guard that can create and people in here talking about adding picks? Brown still relies a lot on shots being created for him. He scores within the flow of the game but all those bailout passes we toss to Herro with time running out? Brown's not that guy. There's nothing a Beal or Booker does that he can't, especially taking age into account. Out of all the names mentioned, Mitchell is the only one I'm trading him for. If Herro was on another team we would be coming up with all sorts of wild scenarios to get him. How is trading him for dudes that have near complete freedom with similar production on worse teams make sense?

Herro is off limits to anybody who is not offering up a top 10 player. This kid is only going to improve. His crap shooting nights are the result of the defenses throwing him different looks he hasn't seen. Once he has seen and learned how to play all the different looks defenses giving him his shooting numbers will be more constant and those bad shooting nights will get less often.

Booker has been in the league 7 years now, and Herro is not that far off. I think he can reach Booker's level in year 5.

Patience will be rewarded folks.

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Now nobody saying he'll be the 2nd best SG in NBA history but the kid is putting up some good numbers. Again, all players go on bad stretches. We don't trade them each time they do. It looks to me we're giving him freedom on offence to kinda fast track his development - Any player this young early in his career bound to make mistakes in this situation, that's just part of the process. He'll learn from them & only become better, stronger & smarter. Spo's not punishing it, which supports the idea we're developing the heck out of Tyler. This is a very positive thing.

People don't just have any clear idea of his value but through the bad stretch have decided to under-appreciate him (total opposite opinion before that stretch). People don't know what we have. Herro is a very talented & skilled player. Look at his footwork, his shooting technique, the way he executes moves - this is a kid who works hard on sharpening his craft. He has the making to be a prolific scorer we've been looking for and at such a young age. The kid is valuable! I agree that the Heat organisation will not move Herro unless for a top 10 player or somebody of that calibre.

Appreciate what you have. The kid may well be a very special player. I'm not willing to find that out w/ him wearing another jersey.

Herro has higher usage, FGA, and is a far worse defender than year 3 Kobe.

Herro in his age 22 season: 21-5-4-.5-0 bad defender

Kobe in his age 22 season: 29-6-5-2-.5 elite defender and 2nd championship.

Kobe in the playoffs that season: 30-7-6-2-1

They are not the same in any way lol

Let's not go backwards. Refer to bold

[twix2500]

and by the way, I will defend Robinson all day.

Because Duncan Robinson is one of those elite 3pt shooters that can single handedly win you a playoff series when they catch fire and steal 2 games because they went 8 of 13 from 3pt or something. That's who he is. He's a lethal game changer that can go off at ANY time, and even when he is struggling, opposing teams have to respect his presence and cover him. Because if they leave him open or sag off him on defense, and Robinson makes a couple shots and starts feeling it, he becomes a GAME CHANGING NIGHTMARE.

Even when he is struggling, Robinson has a gravitational field that forces defenders to watch him, which helps everyone else with spacing.


Herro on the other hand, is a huge question mark and is mostly inefficient, and his defense is bad. He won't change the course of a playoff series like Robinson can if Robinson gets hot.

I would disagree. I hot Herro can change a playoff series like he did against the Celtics in the ECF.

Like Robinson though he can also lose you a series because if they go cold they’re average at best everywhere else

The player who takes the most FGA is the most likely player to cause you to lose a game. Herro is averaging 18 fga the most on the team and Duncan is average 10 fga which is likely to drop when the team is healthy. If Herro shoots a low percentage he has the biggest impact in losing. If Duncan shoots a low percentage he will have a lesser impact. However because of Duncan 3 pt shooting he can have a big impact on small fga.

That is why the Heat puts Duncan in the starting lineup because he can be a big impact on a low fga next to high fga players in Butler and Bam (when he is aggressive).

It is highly important for high FGA player to be efficient.

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So far this year,
Herro is averaging 18 fga with 53 TS%, 50 eFG% and 103 ORtg.
Duncan is averaging 10 fga with 55 TS%, 53 eFG% and 107 ORtg.

Since Bam's injury 12-3,
Herro is averaging 17.5 fga with 50 TS%, 46 eFG% and 100 ORtg.
Duncan is averaging 10.7 fga with 63 TS%, 61 eFG% and 121 ORtg. (8.3 3PA at 42% 3p%, 14.4 pts)

*You can check/verify my numbers because someone is bothering the hell out me. So I may have made a mistake.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I want some of Herros usage to go to Bam, Herro shouldn’t have the highest usage. I want Bam to score more and be more aggressive to score, Spo needs to drill this in his head when he comes back.

It’s easy to go away from Bam because we have so many gifted perimeter players and the league is more perimeter oriented now but Bam almost always has a mismatch on offense.

[gom]

Man, I gotta say that I'm so stoked with this team and so PROUD of their performance against the Suns. The only lowpoint of the road trip was the loss in the last few minutes to the Kings. That was not our best play. The loss to the Warriors with a hodgepodge team only added to our reputation. Spo is a huge part of it of course but the FO is quietly crushing. I'm so impressed.

The court is not quiet: Herro, Strus, and (yes!) Robinson were excellent. Caleb Martin and talented rookie Yurt7 are excelling. Lowry, Tucker both generals. I love these guys!

[Heat_Down_Under]

Herro is a keeper.. so is strus and Yurt..

We are lucky, we can compete right now and we are set up for the future with bam and Herro. No point going all out and trading for a win now and going back to a treadmill team in the future. We are one trade away from really winning it all this year..Just my 2 cents

[gom]

Herro is a keeper.. so is strus and Yurt..

Yes. It's easy for now at least. I'd like to keep Guy too, but I'd prefer our player not to have covid. One reason not to do the thing with Caleb Martin (convert it etc) is that he already is restricted as a 2-way player. I'd prefer to sign him to part of the mle, which is a 3-year deal. I want this guy on the team.

If we convert the contract it would become a minimum contract deal, which is a 1+1 2-year deal. The problem is that the Heat wouldn't then have Martin's bird rights, only early-bird rights (remember TJ?)

This is a weaker form of the Larry Bird exception. It also allows teams to exceed the cap to re-sign their own free agents, but with more limited contracts than the Larry Bird exception. To qualify for this exception the player must play for two seasons without clearing waivers or changing teams as a free agent (see question number 32 for details and nuances to this rule). A team may use the Early Bird exception to re-sign its own free agent for up to 175% of his salary in the previous season (not over the maximum salary, of course) or 105% of the average salary in the previous season3, whichever is greater (see question number 31 for the definition of "average salary"). Early Bird contracts must be at least two seasons in length, which prevents teams from using the Early Bird to sign a one-year contract, then signing the same player with the full Larry Bird exception the following season. Early Bird contracts can be up to four years in length, with raises up to 8% of the salary in the first season of the contract. Early Bird is also a component of the Veteran Free Agent exception, and qualifying players are called "Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agents" in the CBA.

If the player is a restricted free agent with two years of service and qualifies for the Early Bird exception, then the player's prior team may use the Early Bird exception to match an offer sheet he receives from another team under the Gilbert Arenas provision (see question number 43. This is true even if the starting salary for the Early Bird exception is lower than the starting salary in the offer sheet, which is based on the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception.This is a weaker form of the Larry Bird exception. It also allows teams to exceed the cap to re-sign their own free agents, but with more limited contracts than the Larry Bird exception. To qualify for this exception the player must play for two seasons without clearing waivers or changing teams as a free agent (see question number 32 for details and nuances to this rule). A team may use the Early Bird exception to re-sign its own free agent for up to 175% of his salary in the previous season (not over the maximum salary, of course) or 105% of the average salary in the previous season3, whichever is greater (see question number 31 for the definition of "average salary"). Early Bird contracts must be at least two seasons in length, which prevents teams from using the Early Bird to sign a one-year contract, then signing the same player with the full Larry Bird exception the following season. Early Bird contracts can be up to four years in length, with raises up to 8% of the salary in the first season of the contract. Early Bird is also a component of the Veteran Free Agent exception, and qualifying players are called "Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agents" in the CBA.

If the player is a restricted free agent with two years of service and qualifies for the Early Bird exception, then the player's prior team may use the Early Bird exception to match an offer sheet he receives from another team under the Gilbert Arenas provision (see question number 43. This is true even if the starting salary for the Early Bird exception is lower than the starting salary in the offer sheet, which is based on the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception.

The Gilbert Arenas contract for Tyler Johnson was 4/50 for $12.5m per season. Not bad, but... the offer was something like 6, 6, 19, 19. That caused the FO *enormous* problems. Almost as bad as Josh McRoberts fiasco.

Here is a link to the salary cap question I referenced:

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

[Heat_Down_Under]

Herro is a keeper.. so is strus and Yurt..

Yes. It's easy for now at least. I'd like to keep Guy too, but I'd prefer our player not to have covid. One reason not to do the thing with Caleb Martin (convert it etc) is that he already is restricted as a 2-way player. I'd prefer to sign him to part of the mle, which is a 3-year deal. I want this guy on the team.

Yeah Caleb has been solid.. if we can somehow trade Robinson and KZ for a solid/missing piece we gonna be real good come play off time

[Heat_Down_Under]

We have been really good with rebounding when Dedmon or yurt is playing centre. Bam can never average those high rebounding numbers. Against bigger teams like bucks I don’t know why we don’t play big with dedmon/yurt at C and bam at PF. I get that bam at C and tucker at PF works coz tucker can stretch the floor and shoot the 3s. If bam could do that we would be unstoppable. Against big teams that line up doesn’t work.

[gom]

Bam as power forward and Yurtseven at center may be the ticket home (in the future). This guy needs many, many, many games. Should be fun!

[3ammy3uck3ts]

We have been really good with rebounding when Dedmon or yurt is playing centre. Bam can never average those high rebounding numbers. Against bigger teams like bucks I don’t know why we don’t play big with dedmon/yurt at C and bam at PF. I get that bam at C and tucker at PF works coz tucker can stretch the floor and shoot the 3s. If bam could do that we would be unstoppable. Against big teams that line up doesn’t work.

We were a great rebounding team with Bam starting at C as well