Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
MettaWorldPanda wrote:
but he cant do that in the pros on this team
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
MettaWorldPanda wrote:
He heard he was going to Detroit and said I might as well have my surgery lol
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
I'm looking at some stats that some of you might think are interesting, maybe not.
I was interested in how many players per season take at least 4 FGA per game minimum of 20 games (so I can squeeze this year in there). So, in the spoiler is a 38-row list of the year, how many qualified and the percentage change from the year before.
As you can see, there were decent jumps.
In the 1995 season with the 3pt line shortened before the season until the 1998 season, we see a pretty large jump percentage wise at the beginning and large percentage drop off when it was moved back. So, from the 1998 season until now the 3pt line has remained the same.
So, you can see the number of players qualifying remained pretty steady until around 2015, a year after the Golden State Warriors won their first championship with the Splash Brothers and the climb began.
There's been 2 spikes upward since then, the 2018/2019 season and the 2020/2021 season and interesting enough, the last 2 seasons we're starting to see the number of players taking 4 3s a game finally declining.
Adding a graph to make it somewhat easier to see.

I was interested in how many players per season take at least 4 FGA per game minimum of 20 games (so I can squeeze this year in there). So, in the spoiler is a 38-row list of the year, how many qualified and the percentage change from the year before.
As you can see, there were decent jumps.
In the 1995 season with the 3pt line shortened before the season until the 1998 season, we see a pretty large jump percentage wise at the beginning and large percentage drop off when it was moved back. So, from the 1998 season until now the 3pt line has remained the same.
So, you can see the number of players qualifying remained pretty steady until around 2015, a year after the Golden State Warriors won their first championship with the Splash Brothers and the climb began.
There's been 2 spikes upward since then, the 2018/2019 season and the 2020/2021 season and interesting enough, the last 2 seasons we're starting to see the number of players taking 4 3s a game finally declining.
Spoiler:
Adding a graph to make it somewhat easier to see.

Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
So, looking at the players with at least 4 3s attempted and 20 games played Miami has/had 5 players in the 130 player list which are Herro, Robinson, Lowry, Love and Richardson with Rozier who would qualify but does not having enough games played in Miami yet.
So, the thought is that you shoot a high volume of 3s to be more efficient and to also spread the court to create more space for teammates, but all I can see currently is efficiency which I use the true shooting percentage and calculated offensive rating.
So, with 4 3s attempted in 20+ games this year, the top 5 in true shooting are...
#1 G.Allen (PHX) .701
#2 A.Nesmith (IND) .653
#3 K.Pozingis (BOS) .651
#4 KD (PHX) .648
#5 L.Markkanen (UTA) .646
Last place...
#130 J.Poole (WAS) .521
Miami's guys rank are...
#27 Robinson .612
#35 Love .605
#63 Lowry .582
#87 Richardson .552
#112 Herro .544

What's odd from that list, there are 65 players that are below the calculated ORTG for the league which is 115.9. Miami had/has 4 of those players, only Love was above the league average for calculated ORTG. You'd think taking a lot of 3s would make you one of the more efficient players but it's not.
Love 125
Robinson 115
Lowry 115
Richardson 114
Herro 105
So, the thought is that you shoot a high volume of 3s to be more efficient and to also spread the court to create more space for teammates, but all I can see currently is efficiency which I use the true shooting percentage and calculated offensive rating.
So, with 4 3s attempted in 20+ games this year, the top 5 in true shooting are...
#1 G.Allen (PHX) .701
#2 A.Nesmith (IND) .653
#3 K.Pozingis (BOS) .651
#4 KD (PHX) .648
#5 L.Markkanen (UTA) .646
Last place...
#130 J.Poole (WAS) .521
Miami's guys rank are...
#27 Robinson .612
#35 Love .605
#63 Lowry .582
#87 Richardson .552
#112 Herro .544

Spoiler:
What's odd from that list, there are 65 players that are below the calculated ORTG for the league which is 115.9. Miami had/has 4 of those players, only Love was above the league average for calculated ORTG. You'd think taking a lot of 3s would make you one of the more efficient players but it's not.
Love 125
Robinson 115
Lowry 115
Richardson 114
Herro 105
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
AirP. wrote:So, looking at the players with at least 4 3s attempted and 20 games played Miami has/had 5 players in the 130 player list which are Herro, Robinson, Lowry, Love and Richardson with Rozier who would qualify but does not having enough games played in Miami yet.
So, the thought is that you shoot a high volume of 3s to be more efficient and to also spread the court to create more space for teammates, but all I can see currently is efficiency which I use the true shooting percentage and calculated offensive rating.
So, with 4 3s attempted in 20+ games, the top in true shooting the top 5 are...
#1 G.Allen (PHX) .701
#2 A.Nesmith (IND) .653
#3 K.Pozingis (BOS) .651
#4 KD (PHX) .648
#5 L.Markkanen (UTA) .646
Last place...
#130 J.Poole (WAS) .521
Miami's guys rank are...
#27 Robinson .612
#35 Love .605
#63 Lowry .582
#87 Richardson .552
#112 Herro .544Spoiler:
Makes all the sense in the world, the eye test matches those positional numbers for our players. Lauri Markkanen is my dream scenerio best in slot next to Bam. Id go all in for him giving up JJJ, Jovic, 2 FRPs and Herro.
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
Flash4thewin wrote:MettaWorldPanda wrote:3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Twix said it’s a fire sale so it’s a fire sale lol?!
Whatever it is common sense would say they are better off with a 9 million dollar Caruso then a 27 million Herro when they have a 40 million dollar injured LaVine paper weight while they are also dealing with Ball’s 20 million.
To be fair since Ball and Lavine are hurt and out for the season, the insurance picks up the tab so this is basically a free year payment wise for the Bull mgt, a good portion of 60 mil prorated off the books.
Interesting.. So, if the insurance pays out 60m (or how much the prorated amount is), the owner can just pocket 60m?
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
ZoStrong wrote:Flash4thewin wrote:MettaWorldPanda wrote:Whatever it is common sense would say they are better off with a 9 million dollar Caruso then a 27 million Herro when they have a 40 million dollar injured LaVine paper weight while they are also dealing with Ball’s 20 million.
To be fair since Ball and Lavine are hurt and out for the season, the insurance picks up the tab so this is basically a free year payment wise for the Bull mgt, a good portion of 60 mil prorated off the books.
Interesting.. So, if the insurance pays out 60m (or how much the prorated amount is), the owner can just pocket 60m?
Money still counts against the salary cap but i’m assuming the insurance money goes to the owner to pay out the salary to the player.
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
MettaWorldPanda wrote:ZoStrong wrote:Flash4thewin wrote:
To be fair since Ball and Lavine are hurt and out for the season, the insurance picks up the tab so this is basically a free year payment wise for the Bull mgt, a good portion of 60 mil prorated off the books.
Interesting.. So, if the insurance pays out 60m (or how much the prorated amount is), the owner can just pocket 60m?
Money still counts against the salary cap but i’m assuming the insurance money goes to the owner to pay out the salary to the player.
Ofc, the cap remains the same, but the owner actually benefits in this case. Big time. That a huge portion of the annual payout
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
I meant the amount of total salaries, not the cap
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
IceColdCubano wrote:[/code][/spoiler]
Makes all the sense in the world, the eye test matches those positional numbers for our players. Lauri Markkanen is my dream scenerio best in slot next to Bam. Id go all in for him giving up JJJ, Jovic, 2 FRPs and Herro.[/quote]
Too much to give for markkanen imho
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
Here is something to ponder about when trying to understand the value between 2d and 3s in a vacuum. I am assuming you have taken some form of statistics. One should take in consideration mean absolute deviation (MAD) when comparing the efficiency of 2s vs 3s. In my medical work we look at MAD to determine if the medical equipment is working efficiently.AirP. wrote:So, looking at the players with at least 4 3s attempted and 20 games played Miami has/had 5 players in the 130 player list which are Herro, Robinson, Lowry, Love and Richardson with Rozier who would qualify but does not having enough games played in Miami yet.
So, the thought is that you shoot a high volume of 3s to be more efficient and to also spread the court to create more space for teammates, but all I can see currently is efficiency which I use the true shooting percentage and calculated offensive rating.
So, with 4 3s attempted in 20+ games this year, the top 5 in true shooting are...
#1 G.Allen (PHX) .701
#2 A.Nesmith (IND) .653
#3 K.Pozingis (BOS) .651
#4 KD (PHX) .648
#5 L.Markkanen (UTA) .646
Last place...
#130 J.Poole (WAS) .521
Miami's guys rank are...
#27 Robinson .612
#35 Love .605
#63 Lowry .582
#87 Richardson .552
#112 Herro .544Spoiler:
What's odd from that list, there are 65 players that are below the calculated ORTG for the league which is 115.9. Miami had/has 4 of those players, only Love was above the league average for calculated ORTG. You'd think taking a lot of 3s would make you one of the more efficient players but it's not.
Love 125
Robinson 115
Lowry 115
Richardson 114
Herro 105
You commonly hear criticism about a 3 point shooter being STREAKY. This is important, why, because an elite 3 point shooter can go 0-7 in a game and in multiple games and then have a game where he hits almost every shot to bring his average back up. Inconsistency, could lead to loses regardless of efficiency. Because when a players scores as his numbers transition from game to each game matters especially in the playoffs because there are series.
We witness a team make a run in the playoffs because they are streaking hot from three but when its deviation is below the mean aka the hot streak stopped they get swept out the next round.
One year I was gonna try and track degree of variance or deviation to see how that correlates to a teams record. To see if a team with a lower mean but less deviation have a better record then a team with larger variation but a higher mean.
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
?t=lgdgRuRz6i3rPaoUQdOOKA&s=19
Heat had interest in him. Not sure why, but maybe the see path to make something out of his tools
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Heat had interest in him. Not sure why, but maybe the see path to make something out of his tools
Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
twix2500 wrote:AirP. wrote:Spoiler:
Here is something to ponder about when trying to understand the value between 2d and 3s in a vacuum. I am assuming you have taken some form of statistics. One should take in consideration mean absolute deviation (MAD) when comparing the efficiency of 2s vs 3s. In my medical work we look at MAD to determine if the medical equipment is working efficiently.
You always hear criticism about a 3 point shooter is that he is STREAKY. This is important, why, because an elite 3 point shooter can go 0-7 in a game in many games and then have a game where he hits almost every shot to bring his average back up. Inconsistency, could lead to loses regardless of efficiency. Because each game matters especially in the playoffs because there are series.
We witness a team make a run in the playoffs because they are streaking hot from three but when its deviation is below the mean aka the hot streak stopped they get swept out the next round.
One year I was gonna try and track degree of variance or deviation to see how the correlates to a teams record. To see if a team with a lower mean but less deviation have a better record then a team with larger variation but a higher mean.
I don't have all the data I need; I have to one day get play by play data into my databases which will help open up what I can do but I need more data than just that for some of the things I want to do. I just haven't done the work to get the data I need; I keep putting it off, it's a lot of tedious work since I do it mostly from scratch.
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
Yeah its very time consuming that is why I stopped attempting to track deviation.AirP. wrote:twix2500 wrote:AirP. wrote:Spoiler:
Here is something to ponder about when trying to understand the value between 2d and 3s in a vacuum. I am assuming you have taken some form of statistics. One should take in consideration mean absolute deviation (MAD) when comparing the efficiency of 2s vs 3s. In my medical work we look at MAD to determine if the medical equipment is working efficiently.
You always hear criticism about a 3 point shooter is that he is STREAKY. This is important, why, because an elite 3 point shooter can go 0-7 in a game in many games and then have a game where he hits almost every shot to bring his average back up. Inconsistency, could lead to loses regardless of efficiency. Because each game matters especially in the playoffs because there are series.
We witness a team make a run in the playoffs because they are streaking hot from three but when its deviation is below the mean aka the hot streak stopped they get swept out the next round.
One year I was gonna try and track degree of variance or deviation to see how the correlates to a teams record. To see if a team with a lower mean but less deviation have a better record then a team with larger variation but a higher mean.
I don't have all the data I need; I have to one day get play by play data into my databases which will help open up what I can do, since I have some ideas of some really interesting data. I just haven't done the work to get the data I need; I keep putting it off, it's a lot of tedious work since I do it mostly from scratch.
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
twix2500 wrote:MettaWorldPanda wrote:
but he cant do that in the pros on this team

Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
twix2500 wrote:MettaWorldPanda wrote:
but he cant do that in the pros on this team
His very first shot in that video was an airball, he absolutely can do that on Miami's roster!
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
Holy **** is that Damian Lillard?!?! That’s a nasty game winner lol.
We really picked dru smith over this dude several times lol
#FreeBam
#Klutch
#Klutch
Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
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Re: Miami Heat 2024 Regular Season - Thread 4.0
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:
Holy **** is that Damian Lillard?!?! That’s a nasty game winner lol.
We really picked dru smith over this dude several times lol
Bouyea is legit NBA PG, I don't know WTF we're waiting for. He's better then Hampton at every aspect except for size and name recognition.
Bouyea has real NBA speed, good first step, very good athlete overall, good passing instincts, improving to become a good 3 point shooter, good shot blocker and gets steals.
He's slight, that's the biggest and only real knock on him.
Get him on the damn team, he's easily the quickest player on the roster and might actually be the purest old-school PG too.
Chalm Downs wrote:his nickname is boywonder ffs