Official Offseason thread Vol 3: Bck2BACK

[MartyCONLONNN]

Just a FA hunch and bored hope trafficking . But the fact that we haven't made what should be an obvious and classic Riley win-now trade for CP3, especially with the Wade connection... that says A LOT about where the Heat believe they stand with 2021's cap flexibility.

There was that Barry article where someone close to Beal singled out Heat as a team that would receive considerable interest. If Barry has gotten some indications from Beal's circle, you can bet the Heat have as well. If you think about it, we will make a little noise with this squad as it is. But as Bam, Winslow, Herro progress over the next couple seasons, they will be on a better timeline, reaching their peaks right as Beal is at his. Add to that a very serviceable 32 year old Butler. That is a contending team.

I think the Heat will play this out and eventually have an incredibly strong core in their prime with Butler serving as that older fringe all star that can do a little bit of everything. If the Heat wanted to truly compete now, Andy & Riley would find a way to make CP3 happen but I think there is a possibility on the horizon that makes more sense to them.

[AirP.]

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[Feel_the_Heat15]

The offensive/defensive ratings are great advanced stats on basketball-reference.com if you understand the player's roles(main options, role/specialized players), they are not the same stats on NBA.com which are horrible indicators on that site because players get more credit for what other players do while on the court together. Nearly all of the time the players people who agree on being good show up well in those ratings and those who are bad show up as being bad in those ratings.

How do you know that Kemba's ratings are accurate? He was the Hornets' best player so aren't those numbers "untrue"? Do you really think that those numbers accurately portray Kemba as a player?

Accurate? They are his stats and the team's stats while he's on the court that are utilized, with him being a main player on that team he was in many more diverse situations then a roleplayer(hence the reason I differentiate between the roles). No it's not a perfect rating(there really isn't one) but it seems to be a good/great indicator of how a player's use translates to a teams offense/defense.

Yes, I think they're accurate for Kemba. A high volume shooter who scored a lot with just a little over average efficiency. There is a skill to get off that many decent looks, but it doesn't mean you'll make a good team better, especially with his size which creates limitations on the defensive end. I get there's no perfect stat to equate how good or bad a player is, but they can give good indications on players. If you want to see the formula for Dean Oliver's ratings that BBRef uses, go here... https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

I like Kemba, he works and supports his younger teammates and that should make him a great fit personality wise for the team and we've also seen Brad Stephens able to hide I.Thomas on defense but it still hurt the team defensively, Thomas was only +10 with a 120 ORTG(very good) and 112 DRTG which was nearly 4-5 points higher than most of the Celtic's rotation that year. Man... Boston with Kemba and Kanter both starting for them is going to be good on offense but will probably be very ugly on defense.

What I mean by accurate is does his ORTG and DRTG numbers tell the whole story? Could a role-player that has similar RTG numbers to Kemba be just as good as Kemba? The answer would be no. So those numbers do not accurately depict just how good Kemba really is. It seems like ORTG is like points per shot so 112 is a great ORTG to have for a player that averaged 28.6 FGA per 100 possessions. Also, I think you're underrating Kemba's defense. He's not "awful" defensively and he's average defensively for a PG. Past Kemba teams were very good defensively.

[AirP.]

I understand stats and ratings are useful, but I also believe it depends also on the current situation of each individual player. Kemba played for a bad team and had to force the issue a lot for his team to have a shot at winning. His current efficiency numbers have a lot to do with that. With a better team and even a better system, playing with another star player that also commands a lot of attention from Defenders and teams not being able to game plan to mainly stopping him from scoring, his efficiency would go up.

Also, being on a better team his usage would drop which takes away from his strengths (handling the ball and scoring) and doing that would drop his value. Yes his efficiency should go up but his TS% has never been over .572.

Kemba in Miami with JB could be a complete different player. And his defense could be hidden playing with the right system. JB, JW, DJJ and Bam will be the heart of the Heat D next season, it'll depend mainly on Spo to use the right combinations of players with his rotations to maintain the level of Defense needed to complement the deficiencies of Walker in that area.

If Kemba was a completely different player he'd more then likely be less valuable since his offense would be dialed down and if that happens, then his overall value drops. If I'm trying to build a contender, I'm not acquiring a player I have to hide on defense. I absolutely have no problem saying adding Kemba for nothing to Miami does not turn them into a #1 seed in the East which is how this started.

[AirP.]

What I mean by accurate is does his ORTG and DRTG numbers tell the whole story? Could a role-player that has similar RTG numbers to Kemba be just as good as Kemba? The answer would be no. So those numbers do not accurately depict just how good Kemba really is. It seems like ORTG is like points per shot so 112 is a great ORTG to have for a player that averaged 28.6 FGA per 100 possessions. Also, I think you're underrating Kemba's defense. He's not "awful" defensively and he's average defensively for a PG. Past Kemba teams were very good defensively.

You can't just compare 2 players straight up because they don't have the same roles. Those numbers take in consideration what the team does with the player on the court AND what the player is actually contributing. It is absolutely possible that a guy can "get his" while also hurting his team, for instance building the offense to maximize your top options' strengths although it could end up hurting the other players on the court. Dean Oliver's ORTG and DRTG tries to extract that info and create simple stats that shows how much they contribute to the team.

[Beenie]

Just a FA hunch and bored hope trafficking . But the fact that we haven't made what should be an obvious and classic Riley win-now trade for CP3, especially with the Wade connection... that says A LOT about where the Heat believe they stand with 2021's cap flexibility.

There was that Barry article where someone close to Beal singled out Heat as a team that would receive considerable interest. If Barry has gotten some indications from Beal's circle, you can bet the Heat have as well. If you think about it, we will make a little noise with this squad as it is. But as Bam, Winslow, Herro progress over the next couple seasons, they will be on a better timeline, reaching their peaks right as Beal is at his. Add to that a very serviceable 32 year old Butler. That is a contending team.

I think the Heat will play this out and eventually have an incredibly strong core in their prime with Butler serving as that older fringe all star that can do a little bit of everything. If the Heat wanted to truly compete now, Andy & Riley would find a way to make CP3 happen but I think there is a possibility on the horizon that makes more sense to them.

The chatter and heresay suggest that Mia is interested in CP3 so long as he can be acquired with additional assets (namely FRP's) so that Riley has the ammo to execute others acquisitions.

[AirP.]

Just a FA hunch and bored hope trafficking . But the fact that we haven't made what should be an obvious and classic Riley win-now trade for CP3, especially with the Wade connection... that says A LOT about where the Heat believe they stand with 2021's cap flexibility.

There was that Barry article where someone close to Beal singled out Heat as a team that would receive considerable interest. If Barry has gotten some indications from Beal's circle, you can bet the Heat have as well. If you think about it, we will make a little noise with this squad as it is. But as Bam, Winslow, Herro progress over the next couple seasons, they will be on a better timeline, reaching their peaks right as Beal is at his. Add to that a very serviceable 32 year old Butler. That is a contending team.

I think the Heat will play this out and eventually have an incredibly strong core in their prime with Butler serving as that older fringe all star that can do a little bit of everything. If the Heat wanted to truly compete now, Andy & Riley would find a way to make CP3 happen but I think there is a possibility on the horizon that makes more sense to them.

The chatter and heresay suggest that Mia is interested in CP3 so long as he can be acquired with additional assets (namely FRP's) so that Riley has the ammo to execute others acquisitions.

This, I think Riley is looking at multiple trades (although they might not happen), I think he understands the window he has with Butler. I don't understand the Heat fan's infatuation with 2021 space after Butler was acquired, you're going to waste 2 of Butler's 4 years for what? Say you get that big 2021 max free agent, Butler could be gone or no longer a max level player 2 years after that and you're once again in the same situation, 1 star.

I still expect CP3 to be with the Heat in the next few weeks unless OKC can somehow move D.Schroder's contract. I believe OKC(Presti) is actually working with CP3 (like they did with Westbrook and even George) to send him to a destination of his choice. As long as they work with stars on keeping them happy, they'll have some stars willing to give OKC a shot(or at least give them a chance after they're traded there).

[MadD23]

If I'm trying to build a contender, I'm not acquiring a player I have to hide on defense.

So you wouldn't want Curry or Kirie on this team because of their defensive deficencies? Not every star player is a good defender, but teams could be very good defensively due to other players being great at it and having the right system in place. We won a championship with White Chocolate and Antoine Walker in the starting lineup. The only good defender on that lineup was JP and maybe an aging Shaq. Young Wade was an impact player on D but not a top of the league type defender, average at best. It couldn't get any worse than that. Maybe the system and having ZO and GP coming off the bench helped the situation. So the answer IMO is that a player like Walker could possibly help us be at the top of the East if he played for this team, but it's not the case so who cares lol

[inspired4fr33]

2021 Giannis.

[AirP.]

If I'm trying to build a contender, I'm not acquiring a player I have to hide on defense.

So you wouldn't want Curry or Kirie on this team because of their defensive deficencies? Not every star player is a good defender, but teams could be very good defensively due to other players being great at it and having the right system in place. We won a championship with White Chocolate and Antoine Walker in the starting lineup. The only good defender on that lineup was JP and maybe an aging Shaq. Young Wade was an impact player on D but not a top of the league type defender, average at best. It couldn't get any worse than that. Maybe the system and having ZO and GP coming off the bench helped the situation. So the answer IMO is that a player like Walker could possibly help us be at the top of the East if he played for this team, but it's not the case so who cares lol

Curry and Kyrie may have defensive deficiencies but they're both taller than Kemba, the height is the major issue. Then you can toss in he's not as efficient on offense as either of them which can help overcome some of the defensive problems. I personally don't like having that big of a problem on defense, it's more of a playoffs problem more than regular season problem.

BTW, it's not the same NBA as it once was.

I think Miami's team will be better than most people expect, while Miami is lacking in 3pt shooting it does have a lot of solid above average passing/playmaking which in itself will help with offensive efficiency by creating easy baskets. The defense should be very good since it's so switchable but there is some lacking defensive depth at the big man position, would love to see a backup defensive center added to this roster. I would not be surprised at all at some point the national media starts to whisper that Miami could be a dark horse contender.

[MadD23]

I think Miami's team will be better than most people expect, while Miami is lacking in 3pt shooting it does have a lot of solid above average passing/playmaking which in itself will help with offensive efficiency by creating easy baskets. The defense should be very good since it's so switchable but there is some lacking defensive depth at the big man position, would love to see a backup defensive center added to this roster. I would not be surprised at all at some point the national media starts to whisper that Miami could be a dark horse contender.

I agree, we'll be better than expected this season even if we don't make another move. Who would you want in the starting line up?

For example I like this starting line up Winslow, Waiters, Butler, KO, Bam (strong defensive unit, except KO), but my concern is both Dragic and Herro coming off the bench. That would give us 2 weaker guards on D playing with the second unit. Dragic makes all decisions harder, Nunn coming off the bench in the other hand makes me more confortable because he is a dog on defense.

The solution might be to start Herro and bring 7/11 and DJJ front court off the bench, but we know Waiters will make it difficult for Spo to be able to do that.

[Feel_the_Heat15]

If Adebayo can average 15 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists a game and 1 made three a game, he's an all-star.

[AirP.]

I think Miami's team will be better than most people expect, while Miami is lacking in 3pt shooting it does have a lot of solid above average passing/playmaking which in itself will help with offensive efficiency by creating easy baskets. The defense should be very good since it's so switchable but there is some lacking defensive depth at the big man position, would love to see a backup defensive center added to this roster. I would not be surprised at all at some point the national media starts to whisper that Miami could be a dark horse contender.

I agree, we'll be better than expected this season even if we don't make another move. Who would you want in the starting line up?

For example I like this starting line up Winslow, Waiters, Butler, KO, Bam (strong defensive unit, except KO), but my concern is both Dragic and Herro coming off the bench. That would give us 2 weaker guards on D playing with the second unit. Dragic makes all decisions harder, Nunn coming off the bench in the other hand makes me more confortable because he is a dog on defense.

The solution might be to start Herro and bring 7/11 and DJJ front court off the bench, but we know Waiters will make it difficult for Spo to be able to do that.

With the current roster?
Starters: Dragic, Butler, Winslow, JJ, and Bam - a very versatile starting lineup, lots of passing, lots of play making, lots of defense. It's the lineup I'd like to see most of the time and ending games so keeping them together to build chemistry. No true PG just in name only, Dragic, Butler and Winslow can all initiate the offense when they're the best option vs their defender. Before the Winslow for PG chant starts, Butler is by far a better option at PG than Winslow and is proven in the playoffs at that position, when it came down to win or go home, B.Simmons got moved to the dunker's spot to allow Butler to play PG and even with Embiid sick and not playing well, came very close to beating the eventual champs in the 2nd round.

Rest of an 8 man rotation: Olynyk, Waiters, and DJJ as the rounding out of the regular rotation and able to leave Waiters in when doing well, pull him sooner with him doing bad.

Also, try to get minutes here and there for: DJJ, Herro, Leonard, and D.Robinson.

There's enough talent to still "condense" the roster to upgrade the 8 man rotation which I still expect to happen with CP3. Unless OKC can jettison Schroder's contract, they have to get rid of CP3 unless they want issues with 1 of their 3 PGs, all in different places in their careers.

Herro... nobody has any idea if he can play defense at an NBA game level, this sounds like Chicago with McDermott early in his career, needed 3pt shooting, did well in summer league, new shiny rookie... couldn't play defense good enough to stay on the court. If Herro proves himself during the season, make a trade to give him more minutes.

[MadD23]

I agree, we'll be better than expected this season even if we don't make another move. Who would you want in the starting line up?

For example I like this starting line up Winslow, Waiters, Butler, KO, Bam (strong defensive unit, except KO), but my concern is both Dragic and Herro coming off the bench. That would give us 2 weaker guards on D playing with the second unit. Dragic makes all decisions harder, Nunn coming off the bench in the other hand makes me more confortable because he is a dog on defense.

The solution might be to start Herro and bring 7/11 and DJJ front court off the bench, but we know Waiters will make it difficult for Spo to be able to do that.

With the current roster?
[b]Starters: [b]Dragic, Butler, Winslow, JJ, and Bam - a very versatile starting lineup, lots of passing, lots of play making, lots of defense. It's the lineup I'd like to see most of the time and ending games so keeping them together to build chemistry.[/b][/b]



Herro... nobody has any idea if he can play defense at an NBA game level, this sounds like Chicago with McDermott early in his career, needed 3pt shooting, did well in summer league, new shiny rookie... couldn't play defense good enough to stay on the court. If Herro proves himself during the season, make a trade to give him more minutes.

Yes, best defensive unit for sure but no floor spacing whatsoever. You need at least one of the backcourt players to be able to space the floor in todays NBA or you'll get killed no matter how good your D is. Imagine Butler trying to create and break the defense off the dribble or pick and roll game, the paint would be packed with the opponent's two biggest players just sitting there and waiting. Bad idea to start JJ with Bam imo, but hey I've seen our hard headed coach try it many times so it might happen.

We need to play Herro at least 16 to 18 minutes a game. The kid is that good on offense and he will not be a disaster on Defense. In today's NBA, a player like Herro is a must. And yes, watching his overall game tells me he'll be much more than just a floor spacer.

[Feel_the_Heat15]

Big difference between Herro and McDermott defensively is that McDermott is incapable of blocking shots and doesn't get into the passing lanes which Herro does at an above rate for a 6-6 guard.

[AirP.]

I agree, we'll be better than expected this season even if we don't make another move. Who would you want in the starting line up?

For example I like this starting line up Winslow, Waiters, Butler, KO, Bam (strong defensive unit, except KO), but my concern is both Dragic and Herro coming off the bench. That would give us 2 weaker guards on D playing with the second unit. Dragic makes all decisions harder, Nunn coming off the bench in the other hand makes me more confortable because he is a dog on defense.

The solution might be to start Herro and bring 7/11 and DJJ front court off the bench, but we know Waiters will make it difficult for Spo to be able to do that.

With the current roster?
Starters: Dragic, Butler, Winslow, JJ, and Bam - a very versatile starting lineup, lots of passing, lots of play making, lots of defense. It's the lineup I'd like to see most of the time and ending games so keeping them together to build chemistry.



Herro... nobody has any idea if he can play defense at an NBA game level, this sounds like Chicago with McDermott early in his career, needed 3pt shooting, did well in summer league, new shiny rookie... couldn't play defense good enough to stay on the court. If Herro proves himself during the season, make a trade to give him more minutes.

Yes, best defensive unit for sure but no floor spacing whatsoever. You need at least one of the backcourt players to be able to space the floor in todays NBA or you'll get killed no matter how good your D is. Imagine Butler trying to create and break the defense off the dribble or pick and roll game, the paint would be packed with the opponent's two biggest players just sitting there and waiting. Bad idea to start JJ with Bam imo, but hey I've seen our hard headed coach try it many times so it might happen.

We need to play Herro at least 16 to 18 minutes a game. The kid is that good on offense and he will not be a disaster on Defense. In today's NBA, a player like Herro is a must. And yes, watching his overall game tells me he'll be much more than just a floor spacer.

All you need is an efficient offense, doesn't matter how you generate that offense and Miami has average/solid 3pt shooters at nearly every position, they just prioritize shooting 3s. I remember everyone complaining about Tom Thibodeau's offense yet huh, they had a highly efficient offense although not having high volume 3pt shooters and Wiggins refusing to quit shooting those horrible 1 dribble 20 foot shots. Minnesota had SIX rotation players who had average or better efficiency that first year with Butler. It would be interesting to see the TS% of teams getting defensive rebounds from missed 3pt shots vs TS% vs missed midrange or closer shots(because of closer rebounds and less likely fast breaks).

I think too many people look past important faults of players to just add 3pt shooting.

[MadD23]

With the current roster?
Starters: Dragic, Butler, Winslow, JJ, and Bam - a very versatile starting lineup, lots of passing, lots of play making, lots of defense. It's the lineup I'd like to see most of the time and ending games so keeping them together to build chemistry.



Herro... nobody has any idea if he can play defense at an NBA game level, this sounds like Chicago with McDermott early in his career, needed 3pt shooting, did well in summer league, new shiny rookie... couldn't play defense good enough to stay on the court. If Herro proves himself during the season, make a trade to give him more minutes.

Yes, best defensive unit for sure but no floor spacing whatsoever. You need at least one of the backcourt players to be able to space the floor in todays NBA or you'll get killed no matter how good your D is. Imagine Butler trying to create and break the defense off the dribble or pick and roll game, the paint would be packed with the opponent's two biggest players just sitting there and waiting. Bad idea to start JJ with Bam imo, but hey I've seen our hard headed coach try it many times so it might happen.

We need to play Herro at least 16 to 18 minutes a game. The kid is that good on offense and he will not be a disaster on Defense. In today's NBA, a player like Herro is a must. And yes, watching his overall game tells me he'll be much more than just a floor spacer.

All you need is an efficient offense, doesn't matter how you generate that offense and Miami has average/solid 3pt shooters at nearly every position, they just prioritize shooting 3s. I remember everyone complaining about Tom Thibodeau's offense yet huh, they had a highly efficient offense although not having high volume 3pt shooters and Wiggins refusing to quit shooting those horrible 1 dribble 20 foot shots. Minnesota had SIX rotation players who had average or better efficiency that first year with Butler. It would be interesting to see the TS% of teams getting defensive rebounds from missed 3pt shots vs TS% vs missed midrange or closer shots(because of closer rebounds and less likely fast breaks).

I think too many people look past important faults of players to just add 3pt shooting.

I don't remember the last team in recent seasons that won a championship without a floor spacing PF or Center. Unless you have Draymond Green who is crazy good at everything else with Curry and Thompson who are just out of this world shooting from behind the arch. JJ is reckless with the ball and is no Draymond Green. KO defending the opposing Center and spacing the floor for us will give us a lot more positives than JJ. Unless JJ develops a consistent perimeter game that we have not seen from him so far, I don't see how having him with Bam will help this team at all.

[County of Wade]

20th and final training camp roster spot goes to Daryl Macon

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[Feel_the_Heat15]

Keep Silva as Bam's backup and Mulder as backup for Waiters and Herro.

[AirP.]

I don't remember the last team in recent seasons that won a championship without a floor spacing PF or Center. Unless you have Draymond Green who is crazy good at everything else with Curry and Thompson who are just out of this world shooting from behind the arch. JJ is reckless with the ball and is no Draymond Green. KO defending the opposing Center and spacing the floor for us will give us a lot more positives than JJ. Unless JJ develops a consistent perimeter game that we have not seen from him so far, I don't see how having him with Bam will help this team at all.

I don't want to see JJ at center, I do want to see JJ at PF where the defense is much more switchable and as of now I'd only really want to see Bam and Olynyk playing center(hence not starting Olynyk) and depending on the situation either could end the game at PF.

Dragic, Butler, Winslow, Waiters, and Olynyk can make 3s at an average or better % and that's 5 players out of an 8 man rotation which depending on his progress, Herro could also end up being one of those 8. All that really matters is being an efficient offensive team without giving up too much on the defensive end.