Miami Heat Regular Season Thread - Part 1 - Can You Feel It?

[BFRESH44]

And Minnesota fans have seen Wiggins have great games here and there, hell, he got hot and beat Miami this year. What's your point, players can have great games here and there?

And let's not draw parallels between Justise Winslow and Andrew Wiggins. First of all one of those is an excellent defender and competes his ass off, and is on a 3 year 33 million extension. The other is a 6'8' Dion Waiters on a max deal. It's not the same.

Justise Winslow finished last year as a top 6 small forward in DRPM. He's one of the best wing defenders in basketball. That is not an opinion, that is a fact backed by data. Andrew Wiggins is not tops in anything. And is paid like a superstar.

Absolutely, Justise is in a different world vs Wiggins on defense, I'll take Justice over Wiggins as a player every time even if they were paid the same. I compare them because a certain portion of the fan base seem to put so much hope into a player that they refuse to see the overall player instead of the glimmer of light in hopes they're finally becoming a good or great player. Yes Justice will have great games, but not all that often and when you look at the advanced numbers you see how often that really is.

If Justice had a history of being a more efficient scorer you give him the benefit of the doubt, but in his 5th year he's not even gotten close to NBA average efficiency.

I actually like Justice, but if you're wanting to go deep into the playoffs or get to the finals, you have to fix inefficiencies or find a way to hide them. Justice being a PG means he's going to end up shooting more. He shot nearly 14 FGA/36 last year and this year his FGA/36 rate is higher than that.

The real question is, with the starters do you want 3 shooters(Justice and Bam as non shooters) on the court or can Nunn, Butler, and Bam's playmaking be enough with 4 shooters(just Bam as a non shooter) on the court?

Advanced numbers will tell you James Harden is the best scorer to ever play the game. Even better than Michael Jordan. But we all know that's ****, right?

Because what they won't tell you is that he has no in-between game, no ability to post-up, takes very few mid range shots, and that he is heavily reliant on foul shooting and ref manipulation. And that's why when good defensive teams key on the 3 point line and deny the paint, he comes up lame so many times because he has no counter to that style of play.

You can't reduce a player down to his true shooting percentage. There are too many other factors to account for that help contribute to winning basketball. And Justise Winslow is always going to be nothing more than an opportunistic scorer. Volume scoring is not his game. When the right match-up is there, he'll take advantage. Just like he took advantage of Ja Morant opening night, bullying him in the post. Focus on his strengths. He's a good player, on a good contract.

[AirP.]

Advanced numbers will tell you James Harden is the best scorer to ever play the game. Even better than Michael Jordan. But we all know that's ****, right?

I look at their ORTG and I see Harden with 1 year 125, 1 at 120 and the rest lower, Jordan I see 1 year at 125, 1 year at 124 and a bunch at 123. I don't believe that argument of Harden is a better scorer and advanced numbers I look at show that.

Because what they won't tell you is that he has no in-between game, no ability to post-up, takes very few mid range shots, and that he is heavily reliant on foul shooting and ref manipulation. And that's why when good defensive teams key on the 3 point line and deny the paint, he comes up lame so many times because he has no counter to that style of play.

Sure but if he can get his shot basically whenever he wants it shouldn't matter, if you can't force him to his weakness then he really doesn't have a weakness a defense can exploit, they just have to hope he's missing(which shooting tons of 3s you're bound to do). I take MJ every day but I get some of the argument for Harden, I don't penalize Shaq for not hitting jumpers, the guy was nearly unstoppable because you couldn't force him to a weakness all that often.

You can't reduce a player down to his true shooting percentage. There are too many other factors to account for that help contribute to winning basketball. And Justise Winslow is always going to be nothing more than an opportunistic scorer. Volume scoring is not his game. When the right match-up is there, he'll take advantage. Just like he took advantage of Ja Morant opening night, bullying him in the post. Focus on his strengths. He's a good player, on a good contract.

That's why I look at ORTG and DRTG, they try to pick out a player's impact while taking in consideration what the team is doing on the court with them. You can be a great offensive player but your game may make your teammates worse on offense(out of the flow of the game, egos, not touching the ball for great amounts of time) and with that, possibly making your team worse.

You can focus on strengths but your opponent will try to force you to your weakness. Philly will have to try to overcome B.Simmons lack of shooting(I agree he should be utilized like Giannis, not be a PG) and like how Stephens was able to somewhat hide I.Thomas when he was with Boston to get his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. It's really hard to hide a parameter player's lack of outside shooting or inability to score on drives to the basket or hit big free throws, shooting is more important now than it's ever been.

[Bishop45]

Did we not just see the team beat Milwakuee in their building with no Jimmy, with Winslow's point of attack defense, play making, and rebounding being an instrumental part in securing that victory? I'm pretty sure we did.

You can tell who don't hoop when we're using the same parochial stats to measure on court impact

I started hooping since I was 5 years old and played semi pro organized basketball. I helped my son become a pro basketball player in South America. Been watching Basketball religiously since the Magic Johnson and Bird era. So I'm not sure what you are trying to say. I am not a stat fanatic either but I agree with AirP, Winslow is not making our starting lineup better by just playing superb defense and getting some rebounds. Playing in the starting lineup with Bam who is another player who opposing defenders don't respect his outside game means our spacing becomes terrible. We broke a Heat scoring record last night in that first quarter in big part due to Duncan Robinson being an offensive weapon and spacer for the rest of our offense to flow.

Maybe if we play him at SF and he can start hitting those catch and shoot 3 pointers like he did in the past for us, could work better than him being a PG who can't finish layups or hit a mid range jumper and is terrible at the free-throw line. Or maybe he could be more of an asset playing with the second unit. That's all we I'm saying.

Not being a great 3 pt threat isn't a complete end, as there are other good reasons for Justise to start at PG. He's not a detriment to the starters, especially not based on a single game. Justise has been a plus for a majority of his career.

We do this every time a player is out during a good game or run; Did it to Dragic last year, to Winslow in '16, Waiters and Winslow now and
Claim it as facts

[twix2500]

Justise is a role player. Need is not universal against every team. People tend to forget, bball has a lot to do with matchup. Winslow would help a lot against teams with wing duos. Even thou the Heat played well last night. It was helped a lot by Westbrook hurting Houston. If Harden and Westbrook were hot, Winslow would of been vital.

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[MadD23]

You can tell who don't hoop when we're using the same parochial stats to measure on court impact

I started hooping since I was 5 years old and played semi pro organized basketball. I helped my son become a pro basketball player in South America. Been watching Basketball religiously since the Magic Johnson and Bird era. So I'm not sure what you are trying to say. I am not a stat fanatic either but I agree with AirP, Winslow is not making our starting lineup better by just playing superb defense and getting some rebounds. Playing in the starting lineup with Bam who is another player who opposing defenders don't respect his outside game means our spacing becomes terrible. We broke a Heat scoring record last night in that first quarter in big part due to Duncan Robinson being an offensive weapon and spacer for the rest of our offense to flow.

Maybe if we play him at SF and he can start hitting those catch and shoot 3 pointers like he did in the past for us, could work better than him being a PG who can't finish layups or hit a mid range jumper and is terrible at the free-throw line. Or maybe he could be more of an asset playing with the second unit. That's all we I'm saying.

Not being a great 3 pt threat isn't a complete end, as there are other good reasons for Justise to start at PG. He's not a detriment to the starters, especially not based on a single game. Justise has been a plus for a majority of his career.

We do this every time a player is out during a good game or run; Did it to Dragic last year, to Winslow in '16, Waiters and Winslow now and
Claim it as facts

Just calling it as I see it. Nothing personal against the player. Is not only the 3pt shooting, it's the overall offensive game and lack of FT shooting. A PG needs an efficient offensive game to be an effective weapon for an offense. Specially in today's NBA.

BTW, I believe Dion would be a better option than Winslow in the starting lineup. But this team is playing really well as a unit and Dion likes to hold on to the ball and play one on one ball on 90% of his buckets, that could be a problem as well. But between Dion and Winslow, give me a healthy in shape Dion on that starting lineup.

[MadD23]

Justise is a role player. Need is not universal against every team. People tend to forget, bball has a lot to do with matchup. Winslow would help a lot against teams with wing duos. Even thou the Heat played well last night. It was helped a lot by Westbrook hurting Houston. If Harden and Westbrook were hot, Winslow would of been vital.

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Agree and disagree. Yes the Defense improves but the offense takes a big hit as well. How big is Winslow defensive impact to completely ignore the negatives he causes to our offense as a whole? That's the million dollar question and why I am not a fan of his current role.

[County of Wade]

Some quotes from Jimmy from an article with Yahoo sports titled: "Why Jimmy Butler views reaction to his free-agent decision as disrespect"

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-jimmy-butler-views-reaction-to-his-freeagent-decision-as-disrespect-180921044.html

“I tried to get to Miami earlier than June, if you remember me coming out of Minnesota,” Butler told Yahoo Sports, referring to his trade request last season. “So, people are overlooking all the facts.”

“Mother------s act like I’m not a good basketball player,” Butler told Yahoo Sports. “Like for real. Just think about that. Like I can’t come in and make a huge difference. I’m not going to say ‘carry a team’ because nobody can do it by themselves and I mean that. I’m not putting it all on myself, but I know what I’m capable of. I know what I bring to any and all situations, and the group of guys that we have is the group of guys that I want to play with.

“When I look down the line and as we're talking about it as an organization on this roster, I know what these guys are capable of. These guys are built like me. We’re one in the same and so they’re only going to get better and they’re not going to get complacent. This is me. I see myself in every one of these guys around this locker room.”

“Look at the mother-----r K-Nunn. Look at him. He’s got so much of me in him that it’s scary because his confidence continues to grow,” Butler told Yahoo Sports. “The same thing with our rook Tyler Herro and [second-year player] Duncan. Come on, man. Just because you don’t know these guys like that, don’t make the mistake of looking past them. They’re going to make sure you do know them pretty, pretty soon.”

[twix2500]

Justise is a role player. Need is not universal against every team. People tend to forget, bball has a lot to do with matchup. Winslow would help a lot against teams with wing duos. Even thou the Heat played well last night. It was helped a lot by Westbrook hurting Houston. If Harden and Westbrook were hot, Winslow would of been vital.

Sent from my SM-T550 using Tapatalk

Agree and disagree. Yes the Defense improves but the offense takes a big hit as well. How big is Winslow defensive impact to completely ignore the negatives he causes to our offense as a whole? That's the million dollar question and why I am not a fan of his current role.

Again it's dependent on the matchup.

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[BFRESH44]

Some quotes from Jimmy from an article with Yahoo sports

“I tried to get to Miami earlier than June, if you remember me coming out of Minnesota,” Butler told Yahoo Sports, referring to his trade request last season. “So, people are overlooking all the facts.”

“Mother------s act like I’m not a good basketball player,” Butler told Yahoo Sports. “Like for real. Just think about that. Like I can’t come in and make a huge difference. I’m not going to say ‘carry a team’ because nobody can do it by themselves and I mean that. I’m not putting it all on myself, but I know what I’m capable of. I know what I bring to any and all situations, and the group of guys that we have is the group of guys that I want to play with.

“When I look down the line and as we're talking about it as an organization on this roster, I know what these guys are capable of. These guys are built like me. We’re one in the same and so they’re only going to get better and they’re not going to get complacent. This is me. I see myself in every one of these guys around this locker room.”

“Look at the mother-----r K-Nunn. Look at him. He’s got so much of me in him that it’s scary because his confidence continues to grow,” Butler told Yahoo Sports. “The same thing with our rook Tyler Herro and [second-year player] Duncan. Come on, man. Just because you don’t know these guys like that, don’t make the mistake of looking past them. They’re going to make sure you do know them pretty, pretty soon.”

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-jimmy-butler-views-reaction-to-his-freeagent-decision-as-disrespect-180921044.html

Inject this into my veins

[Zasterror]

TALK TO 'EEEEEM, JIMMY!
Love this guy.
Btw, we are only in Game 6-7, give Winslow a break. We NEED him for us to be consistently competitive.

[BenoUdrihFTL]

It's funny, I'm sure if you took a poll of coaches/GMs/media/players/fans/etc 99% of them would rate Harden above Butler

And I think that's probably fair in a general sense. But for this Heat team, this Heat culture, I'd take Yimmy every day of the week and twice on Sundays

[twix2500]

Love the respect for Westbrook lmao

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[KingDavid]

6 games in (BBREF ORTG - DRGT) not boxscore +/-

Core Players
Bam +27
Butler +19
Dragic +11
Nunn +7
Herro +3
Winslow -9

Role Players
DJJ +50
Leonard +38
Silva +29
Robinson +25
Olynyk -7
JJ +19

Most of the roster just fits together, this is what happens when the FO and coaching staff on the same page. Still need another defensive big so if Bam goes down it's not a huge drop off for the team. I really like how Spoelstra is moving the role players around the rotation to eat up game minutes without hurting the team, this only works if the players are willing to do it without letting their egos get in the way(which could happen down the road).

Miami has enough lower end rotation players to make a consolidation trade without hurting their depth too much while strengthening the top of the rotation. Justice could be the top asset being sent out in a consolidation trade, which would mean you're bring back a player better(and more expensive) then Justice.

The roleplayers will come down to earth(a big game or 2 in such a small amount of data) but the starters stay somewhat where they are for the season.

I know you said we need a defensive big behind Bam, but who could we pick up in a trade involving Justise?

His net rating is only a -9 because of of that one 23pt game. If it weren't for that game, yikes. But it could be thrown off by that OT game. He better get his shot going quick because his net rating is definitely reflected in how I feel about his game right now. Complete liability on offense and his defense isn't effective enough to overcome that. Either that or he's going to have to come off the bench as the primary ball handler doing dribble hand offs to Dion and Dragic.

[AirP.]

I know you said we need a defensive big behind Bam, but who could we pick up in a trade involving Justise?

His net rating is only a -9 because of of that one 23pt game. If it weren't for that game, yikes. But it could be thrown off by that OT game. He better get his shot going quick because his net rating is definitely reflected in how I feel about his game right now. Complete liability on offense and his defense isn't effective enough to overcome that. Either that or he's going to have to come off the bench as the primary ball handler doing dribble hand offs to Dion and Dragic.

Justise is a good overall player, you only move Justise if you can upgrade which would probably mean a package deal for a more expensive player. It also depends on what Riley and Spo want to do, do they want to take a shot at it for the next few years or do they think they can grab a star this season or will they have to wait till 2021(I hate wasting years if you're not rebuilding, Miami isn't rebuilding).

None of us really know what Riley/Spo are wanting to do and plans can change. All I know is this team has probably too much depth to keep everyone happy if everyone is healthy, if Bam goes down with an injury it vastly hurts the defense because of who would replace him, and a roster spot needs to be opened for C.Silva and the time is ticking much like his 45 days on his 2-way contract.

For this year I expect a good competitive team and a sizable move by Miami's front office.

[AirP.]

“Look at the mother-----r K-Nunn. Look at him. He’s got so much of me in him that it’s scary because his confidence continues to grow,” Butler told Yahoo Sports. “The same thing with our rook Tyler Herro and [second-year player] Duncan. Come on, man. Just because you don’t know these guys like that, don’t make the mistake of looking past them. They’re going to make sure you do know them pretty, pretty soon.”

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-jimmy-butler-views-reaction-to-his-freeagent-decision-as-disrespect-180921044.html

[KingDavid]

I know you said we need a defensive big behind Bam, but who could we pick up in a trade involving Justise?

His net rating is only a -9 because of of that one 23pt game. If it weren't for that game, yikes. But it could be thrown off by that OT game. He better get his shot going quick because his net rating is definitely reflected in how I feel about his game right now. Complete liability on offense and his defense isn't effective enough to overcome that. Either that or he's going to have to come off the bench as the primary ball handler doing dribble hand offs to Dion and Dragic.

Justise is a good overall player, you only move Justise if you can upgrade which would probably mean a package deal for a more expensive player. It also depends on what Riley and Spo want to do, do they want to take a shot at it for the next few years or do they think they can grab a star this season or will they have to wait till 2021(I hate wasting years if you're not rebuilding, Miami isn't rebuilding).

None of us really know what Riley/Spo are wanting to do and plans can change. All I know is this team has probably too much depth to keep everyone happy if everyone is healthy, if Bam goes down with an injury it vastly hurts the defense because of who would replace him, and a roster spot needs to be opened for C.Silva and the time is ticking much like his 45 days on his 2-way contract.

For this year I expect a good competitive team and a sizable move by Miami's front office.

Nunn/Dragic
Jimmy/Herro
Duncan/Justise
Bam/JJ
Leonard/KO

We're gonna have a problem with Dion or Justise. Wasn't expecting Duncan to get into rotation. I think Duncan may get shipped out as the sweetener in a deal with Dion or Justise and opens the roster spot for Silva.

If I had to choose between Dion or Justise, I would want to keep Justise because his defense is lethal. Maybe his back injury is messing up his shot because he was fine from 3 last year. He also significantly cheaper, lol. Djj fills up Duncan's place

Nunn/Dragic
Butler/Herro
Djj/Justise
Bam/JJ (backup defensive 4?)
Leonard/KO

I think JJ can play the backup 4? Oh man. This is confusing lol

[DayofMourning]

“Look at the mother-----r K-Nunn. Look at him. He’s got so much of me in him that it’s scary because his confidence continues to grow,” Butler told Yahoo Sports. “The same thing with our rook Tyler Herro and [second-year player] Duncan. Come on, man. Just because you don’t know these guys like that, don’t make the mistake of looking past them. They’re going to make sure you do know them pretty, pretty soon.”

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-jimmy-butler-views-reaction-to-his-freeagent-decision-as-disrespect-180921044.html

Team off to a great start, with a huge confidence builder in Jimmy Butler. His value is immense for us. Got everybody's head in the game. This team is special to watch. More fun to watch than about any squad we've had.

[KingDavid]

You can tell who don't hoop when we're using the same parochial stats to measure on court impact

I started hooping since I was 5 years old and played semi pro organized basketball. I helped my son become a pro basketball player in South America. Been watching Basketball religiously since the Magic Johnson and Bird era. So I'm not sure what you are trying to say. I am not a stat fanatic either but I agree with AirP, Winslow is not making our starting lineup better by just playing superb defense and getting some rebounds. Playing in the starting lineup with Bam who is another player who opposing defenders don't respect his outside game means our spacing becomes terrible. We broke a Heat scoring record last night in that first quarter in big part due to Duncan Robinson being an offensive weapon and spacer for the rest of our offense to flow.

Maybe if we play him at SF and he can start hitting those catch and shoot 3 pointers like he did in the past for us, could work better than him being a PG who can't finish layups or hit a mid range jumper and is terrible at the free-throw line. Or maybe he could be more of an asset playing with the second unit. That's all we I'm saying.

Not being a great 3 pt threat isn't a complete end, as there are other good reasons for Justise to start at PG. He's not a detriment to the starters, especially not based on a single game. Justise has been a plus for a majority of his career.

We do this every time a player is out during a good game or run; Did it to Dragic last year, to Winslow in '16, Waiters and Winslow now and
Claim it as facts

Name the rotation.

Right now it's

Nunn/Dragic
Butler/Herro
Duncan/Justise:DJJ
Bam/JJ/djj
Leonard/KO

Where do you put Dion and Justise? Duncan wormed his way into rotation. I think Duncan and Dion get shipped out together.

[Beenie]

Justise is a role player. Need is not universal against every team. People tend to forget, bball has a lot to do with matchup. Winslow would help a lot against teams with wing duos. Even thou the Heat played well last night. It was helped a lot by Westbrook hurting Houston. If Harden and Westbrook were hot, Winslow would of been vital.

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To your point, styles make fights.

Justice can defend almost any wing on D. His defensive prowess will always have a place on the team.

[Wiltside]

Winslow / Dragic
Nunn / Herro
Butler / Robinson
Adebayo / JJ
Leonard / Olynyk

Robinson’s hot shooting has him taking DJJ’s rotation spot IMO. DJJ and JJ gonna be fighting for PF mins, but I’m giving it to JJ as I think he fits better between KO and DRob.