Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 6.0 -Everything's Gonna Be All Wright

[AirP.]

So basically you're saying Tyler is pretty much around average TS% for a SG?

How do you get that from just the players scoring 20 ppg?

Although I don't have the average for SGs, I can do a list of SGs based on playing at least 20 games this year which comes up with 91 players and Herro is 60th right below Okogie and right above Ivey and Trent Jr.

If you look at Miami's roster's TS% Herro is 15th out of 20 players on the roster this year, for calculated ORTG he's 17th of 20 Miami players at 107 which is interesting with the league average being 115.7 so he's only 8.7 below the league average.

Just looking on Basketball-Reference's advanced stats for qualified players, Herro is 163 out of 202 players for TS%. *Note that some players are on there 3 times since they were traded with their old, new and total stats for each team they were on.

I heard Ethan on 5 reason's talking about Herro's TS% being low because he's not getting to the line which is somewhat true but not the real reason, the real reason is that he's shooting 9.9 2pt shots per game and hitting nearly 47% of them which is not very efficient in this 3pt era, that's a pace of 94 points on 100 shots instead of taking more 3s than 2s since he's scoring nearly 120 points per 100 shots beyond the arc but taking near 2 less 3s than 2s which seems to be leaning towards his weakness.

Point being, maybe one of the lowest TS% players on the team shouldn't be taking the most shots by far on the team.

What Ethan is saying is basically what I was alluding to. Adjust the FT attempts with another player with roughly the same amount of attempts as Herro and like I said he's around average. Add about 2 FTs for Herro and look at what it goes up to as well. I think last year that was basically the average TS% of most SGs as well.

So, if we magically give him a few more free points he's up to average? Sure, if he gets 2 more freethrows and he probably makes them both that gets him up to .574 TS% but doing that for basically anyone will dramatically up their TS%. Another way to get his efficiency up would be to look to take any 3pt shot he's got vs just up faking and then attacking the midrange or basket for a 2pt shot. Nothing in his 5-year history says he's likely to get 2 more FTA per game and he's been getting up 16.6 shots or more for the past 3 years, so he's had enough opportunities to get those FTs but his game isn't built for that, especially adding that floater to stay away from contact. How many more inefficient years are acceptable for a team that wants to make the finals? This also leads into part of the reason he has a dropoff in the playoffs, sure he can have a good game here and there but normally in the playoffs it's more physical which leads towards his game being even more inefficient. Herro's career TS% in the regular season is .556, in the playoffs it drops to .527. I get holding onto him if you're a franchise that isn't going anywhere in hopes something finally clicks but this is a team that has title hopes and just having one more solid playoff performer could do a world of good.

Right now, T.Rozier is getting a pass trying to find his way on a new team and based on his history of being better than he is but if he doesn't start consistently doing better the fanbase will be after him too.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[AirP.]

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There is an argument for Herro, he's not only willing but he wants to take the big shots, and he seems good taking them. This is probably a big reason why the Miami FO has given him such a long leash. The issue is that in previous years Miami didn't have that many decent scorers on the roster, they do now so when Herro takes his high volume of shots, he's taking shots away from more efficient players and also getting them out of their offensive flow. There's a very good/efficient offensive player inside of Herro, but that version of him may only show up once he's done trying to shoot himself into being an all-star. He has high aspirations and believes PPG is how to achieve them (and he's not wrong, a lot of people look at PPG way more than efficiency).

When I watch Herro play, I see a player who to me seems like a player treating the game like a scrimmage and just taking whatever shots he wants whereas I see a player like Bam who has a good shooting stroke, probably could hit 3s but understands he's not good enough outside of games to justify taking them in games.

[Rapaz]

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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There is an argument for Herro, he's not only willing but he wants to take the big shots, and he seems good taking them. This is probably a big reason why the Miami FO has given him such a long leash. The issue is that in previous years Miami didn't have that many decent scorers on the roster, they do now so when Herro takes his high volume of shots, he's taking shots away from more efficient players and also getting them out of their offensive flow. There's a very good/efficient offensive player inside of Herro, but that version of him may only show up once he's done trying to shoot himself into being an all-star. He has high aspirations and believes PPG is how to achieve them (and he's not wrong, a lot of people look at PPG way more than efficiency).

When I watch Herro play, I see a player who to me seems like a player treating the game like a scrimmage and just taking whatever shots he wants whereas I see a player like Bam who has a good shooting stroke, probably could hit 3s but understands he's not good enough outside of games to justify taking them in games.

So basically no valid reason lol?

[twix2500]

At the end of the day when Herro returns the starting lineup will eventually be Rozier - Herro - Butler - Martin - Adebayo

When Spo does that he needs to base the second with Robinson and Jovic together

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[greg4012]

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There is an argument for Herro, he's not only willing but he wants to take the big shots, and he seems good taking them. This is probably a big reason why the Miami FO has given him such a long leash. The issue is that in previous years Miami didn't have that many decent scorers on the roster, they do now so when Herro takes his high volume of shots, he's taking shots away from more efficient players and also getting them out of their offensive flow. There's a very good/efficient offensive player inside of Herro, but that version of him may only show up once he's done trying to shoot himself into being an all-star. He has high aspirations and believes PPG is how to achieve them (and he's not wrong, a lot of people look at PPG way more than efficiency).

When I watch Herro play, I see a player who to me seems like a player treating the game like a scrimmage and just taking whatever shots he wants whereas I see a player like Bam who has a good shooting stroke, probably could hit 3s but understands he's not good enough outside of games to justify taking them in games.

Let him finish games. But the lineup distribution is still best when Herro can be leading the offense when Jimmy (and to a lesser extent Bam) is out, and when Duncan can start games with Bam and Jimmy.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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There is an argument for Herro, he's not only willing but he wants to take the big shots, and he seems good taking them. This is probably a big reason why the Miami FO has given him such a long leash. The issue is that in previous years Miami didn't have that many decent scorers on the roster, they do now so when Herro takes his high volume of shots, he's taking shots away from more efficient players and also getting them out of their offensive flow. There's a very good/efficient offensive player inside of Herro, but that version of him may only show up once he's done trying to shoot himself into being an all-star. He has high aspirations and believes PPG is how to achieve them (and he's not wrong, a lot of people look at PPG way more than efficiency).

When I watch Herro play, I see a player who to me seems like a player treating the game like a scrimmage and just taking whatever shots he wants whereas I see a player like Bam who has a good shooting stroke, probably could hit 3s but understands he's not good enough outside of games to justify taking them in games.

Let him finish games. But the lineup distribution is still best when Herro can be leading the offense when Jimmy (and to a lesser extent Bam) is out, and when Duncan can start games with Bam and Jimmy.

Offense is so much more fluid with Duncan next to them than Herro and it’s not even close, I hope Spo sees it

[al bondiga]

Herro Or Robinson... It's a wonderful problem to have... But we won't know for sure until they become
Tyler or Duncan... If anyone gets what i'm saying

Another thing that I see is that ...Tyler seems to have more of a future and as an NBA player Or leader of a team.

[MHeat0279]

Herro Or Robinson... It's a wonderful problem to have... But we won't know for sure until they become
Tyler or Duncan... If anyone gets what i'm saying

Another thing that I see is that ...Tyler seems to have more of a future and as an NBA player Or leader of a team.

Both can shoot the ball, they will both have a long NBA career. Shooters never get out of flavor

[IceColdCubano]

Wonder what the percentages would be if the four wild airballs were removed

Airballs are like the spices in a good bbq rub, you can't get the twang to taste good without the spice hitting first. Its like watching a horror movie with no suspense, everything has to look absolutely gone to shitz in order for the good to stand out.

There was a post from you that broke down the minutes speaking about Spo's playoff rotation. With the news of Josh being done for the season do you see Wright receiving minutes in the playoffs or still think we won't use him? I personally think we should find some minutes for him, but I also can't really see the place for him. Last year we used 7 players deep and the year before it was 8 players deep the playoffs. I wonder how much of that was due to our benches being weaker the previous 2 years.

I was accounting for Josh to get limited minutes being matchup specific, because there inst another guard on the team you can put right now after Rozier/Herro that is capable of shutting down the opposition for a couple of important minutes, there will be 4th quarters or end of the 2nd quarters where Spo will need to put Wright in the game to clamp down a guard that is absolutely killing us, sometimes if you can just force a guy to pass out for 5-6 possesions in a row you could cause enough of a cold spell to affect the outcome of a game. I absolutely believe thats where spo will go with this, if our starting unit, and bench rotation are doing as expected in the serious he may not see the floor, as Calebs, JJJ, Duncan's, Love minutes will take priority and that means that Rozier & Herro will be staggered enough that theyll have playmaking on the court to remove the need for having a pure backup Guard in the rotation. However you have Hart/Brunson New York, Struss/Mitchell Cleveland, Brown/Holliday Boston, Maxey/Hield Philly, Halliburton Monster by himself Indiana, Lillard/Beasly Milwaukee your going to have a huge need for Wright in all those series if I was a betting man.

[AirP.]

Herro Or Robinson... It's a wonderful problem to have... But we won't know for sure until they become
Tyler or Duncan... If anyone gets what i'm saying

Another thing that I see is that ...Tyler seems to have more of a future and as an NBA player Or leader of a team.

Both can shoot the ball, they will both have a long NBA career. Shooters never get out of flavor

That use to be true but since there are more players working on and shooting 3s it's not quite the case anymore. Duncan is weeks from 30 and it'll be interesting what happens with his game as his athletic ability drops in the next few years, it could really hurt his game since he's not all that athletic currently.

[IceColdCubano]

Herro Or Robinson... It's a wonderful problem to have... But we won't know for sure until they become
Tyler or Duncan... If anyone gets what i'm saying

Another thing that I see is that ...Tyler seems to have more of a future and as an NBA player Or leader of a team.

Both can shoot the ball, they will both have a long NBA career. Shooters never get out of flavor

That use to be true but since there are more players working on and shooting 3s it's not quite the case anymore. Duncan is weeks from 30 and it'll be interesting what happens with his game as his athletic ability drops in the next few years, it could really hurt his game since he's not all that athletic already.

Nothing about Duncan screams athletism infact he barely even uses it outside of knowing when to pivot and turn on a screen and elevate to shoot which is more IQ related, his dribble drives are just based on the gravity he has with his shooting and pump fakes, he also has long strides as he is wiri long and 6'-7". If anything that is a reason that he will age slowly and continue to be deadly into his later years. Somebody like Herro for example with a short wingspan would age badly at 6'-5" when his athletics is gone he would need to be a Goat level shooter at that point to make up for his loss of speed or movement. Even worse off would Terry Rozier, he would absolutely age terribly since he is really small, he would need to turn his game into a very pure point level player ala Chris Paul to be functional in his later years when he loses his athletics. case in point is look no further than Kyle Lowry to gage Rozier as he ages, and Rozier is not the Shooter or has the IQ that Kyle had in his prime or his ability to read the floor. Which makes him a worse version of Kyle Lowry we all remember on this team.

[twix2500]

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Coles says exactly what I havr been saying for the past 14 years on here about Spo regular season coaching philosophy.

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[AirP.]

Both can shoot the ball, they will both have a long NBA career. Shooters never get out of flavor

That use to be true but since there are more players working on and shooting 3s it's not quite the case anymore. Duncan is weeks from 30 and it'll be interesting what happens with his game as his athletic ability drops in the next few years, it could really hurt his game since he's not all that athletic already.

Nothing about Duncan screams athletism infact he barely even uses it outside of knowing when to pivot and turn on a screen and elevate to shoot which is more IQ related, his dribble drives are just based on the gravity he has with his shooting and pump fakes, he also has long strides as he is wiri long and 6'-7". If anything that is a reason that he will age slowly and continue to be deadly into his later years. Somebody like Herro for example with a short wingspan would age badly at 6'-5" when his athletics is gone he would need to be a Goat level shooter at that point to make up for his loss of speed or movement. Even worse off would Terry Rozier, he would absolutely age terribly since he is really small, he would need to turn his game into a very pure point level player ala Chris Paul to be functional in his later years when he loses his athletics. case in point is look no further than Kyle Lowry to gage Rozier as he ages, and Rozier is not the Shooter or has the IQ that Kyle had in his prime or his ability to read the floor. Which makes him a worse version of Kyle Lowry we all remember on this team.

Or he's barely athletic enough as it is and losing anything at all makes him unplayable? Maybe you may remember even with him in his prime he lost his starting role to a 2-way player and also completely fell out of the rotation on a team that needed shooting.

Even if you can shoot, you may not be able to run off screens well to get open or even contest shots on defense which could make them a huge negative on the court. It's just not a give if you can shoot, you'll stay useful in the NBA. I just looked back at the guys who made 3s and a bunch of them are barely hanging on in their early 30s like Evan Fournier who's now 31.

It's so interesting how the NBA keeps changing where once a specific skill/ability could keep you in the NBA for a long time and now, not so much. If there's more players who can do your specific strength is, it's less likely for you stay around. It use to be being big kept you in the league, then a lot of the bigs disappeared and now they're coming back as this younger generation of NBA bigs have played a more diverse offensive game then previous generation bigs did.

[IceColdCubano]

That use to be true but since there are more players working on and shooting 3s it's not quite the case anymore. Duncan is weeks from 30 and it'll be interesting what happens with his game as his athletic ability drops in the next few years, it could really hurt his game since he's not all that athletic already.

Nothing about Duncan screams athletism infact he barely even uses it outside of knowing when to pivot and turn on a screen and elevate to shoot which is more IQ related, his dribble drives are just based on the gravity he has with his shooting and pump fakes, he also has long strides as he is wiri long and 6'-7". If anything that is a reason that he will age slowly and continue to be deadly into his later years. Somebody like Herro for example with a short wingspan would age badly at 6'-5" when his athletics is gone he would need to be a Goat level shooter at that point to make up for his loss of speed or movement. Even worse off would Terry Rozier, he would absolutely age terribly since he is really small, he would need to turn his game into a very pure point level player ala Chris Paul to be functional in his later years when he loses his athletics. case in point is look no further than Kyle Lowry to gage Rozier as he ages, and Rozier is not the Shooter or has the IQ that Kyle had in his prime or his ability to read the floor. Which makes him a worse version of Kyle Lowry we all remember on this team.

Or he's barely athletic enough as it is and losing anything at all makes him unplayable? Maybe you may remember even with him in his prime he lost his starting role to a 2-way player and also completely fell out of the rotation on a team that needed shooting.

Even if you can shoot, you may not be able to run off screens well to get open or even contest shots on defense which could make them a huge negative on the court.

Are you talking about Duncan losing his starting spot to Max Struss, I believe the only reason that happened wasn't because of defense it was because Duncan forgot how to shoot for a long stretch in our season, he was killing us and we were here talking about the worst contract in the league for two seasons there. Duncan fit and gravity have always been top notch and when his shot was on he has been the best fit next to Jimmy and Bam on this build bar none. Now if he can't hit anything he becomes an absolute trash bin because he was foul prone, terrible defense, and was not the playmaker he is this year. Duncan improving his playmaking and offense feel in his passes in the half court has completely made his game take a diff level. Specially if he is hitting his 3pts at a high clip, now you have a serious offensive weapon in shot creation for the team and shot taker off DHO's and Picks.

[AirP.]

Nothing about Duncan screams athletism infact he barely even uses it outside of knowing when to pivot and turn on a screen and elevate to shoot which is more IQ related, his dribble drives are just based on the gravity he has with his shooting and pump fakes, he also has long strides as he is wiri long and 6'-7". If anything that is a reason that he will age slowly and continue to be deadly into his later years. Somebody like Herro for example with a short wingspan would age badly at 6'-5" when his athletics is gone he would need to be a Goat level shooter at that point to make up for his loss of speed or movement. Even worse off would Terry Rozier, he would absolutely age terribly since he is really small, he would need to turn his game into a very pure point level player ala Chris Paul to be functional in his later years when he loses his athletics. case in point is look no further than Kyle Lowry to gage Rozier as he ages, and Rozier is not the Shooter or has the IQ that Kyle had in his prime or his ability to read the floor. Which makes him a worse version of Kyle Lowry we all remember on this team.

Or he's barely athletic enough as it is and losing anything at all makes him unplayable? Maybe you may remember even with him in his prime he lost his starting role to a 2-way player and also completely fell out of the rotation on a team that needed shooting.

Even if you can shoot, you may not be able to run off screens well to get open or even contest shots on defense which could make them a huge negative on the court.

Are you talking about Duncan losing his starting spot to Max Struss, I believe the only reason that happened wasn't because of defense it was because Duncan forgot how to shoot for a long stretch in our season, he was killing us and we were here talking about the worst contract in the league for two seasons there. Duncan fit and gravity have always been top notch and when his shot was on he has been the best fit next to Jimmy and Bam on this build bar none. Now if he can't hit anything he becomes an absolute trash bin because he was foul prone, terrible defense, and was not the playmaker he is this year. Duncan improving his playmaking and offense feel in his passes in the half court has completely made his game take a diff level. Specially if he is hitting his 3pts at a high clip, now you have a serious offensive weapon in shot creation for the team and shot taker off DHO's and Picks.

If he can't get open he won't shoot well, this is what happens when you get older and slower.

Settle down, there are tons of players who are a better fit next to Butler and Bam than Duncan. Lillard would be one, give me Mitchell, Brunson, KD, LeBron, Luka... I think you get the idea. If you're talking only Miami players maybe but I'm not sure with a more offensive PG in Rozier and Jovic at PF, it could be Caleb or Jaquez Jr at SG/SF and both make the defense much better then either Herro or Robinson.

What's nuts is the 3 man combo of Butler, Bam and Robinson is +7.1 per 100 possessions which is the same as Butler, Bam and Caleb and only 1 point better than Butler, Bam and Lowry were. Oh, the best player with Butler and Bam this year has been Highsmith in 268 minutes are a +10 in 100 possessions.

There's a lot of interesting combos this season that some haven't noticed yet.

[IceColdCubano]

Or he's barely athletic enough as it is and losing anything at all makes him unplayable? Maybe you may remember even with him in his prime he lost his starting role to a 2-way player and also completely fell out of the rotation on a team that needed shooting.

Even if you can shoot, you may not be able to run off screens well to get open or even contest shots on defense which could make them a huge negative on the court.

Are you talking about Duncan losing his starting spot to Max Struss, I believe the only reason that happened wasn't because of defense it was because Duncan forgot how to shoot for a long stretch in our season, he was killing us and we were here talking about the worst contract in the league for two seasons there. Duncan fit and gravity have always been top notch and when his shot was on he has been the best fit next to Jimmy and Bam on this build bar none. Now if he can't hit anything he becomes an absolute trash bin because he was foul prone, terrible defense, and was not the playmaker he is this year. Duncan improving his playmaking and offense feel in his passes in the half court has completely made his game take a diff level. Specially if he is hitting his 3pts at a high clip, now you have a serious offensive weapon in shot creation for the team and shot taker off DHO's and Picks.

If he can't get open he won't shoot well, this is what happens when you get older and slower.

Settle down, there are tons of players who are a better fit next to Butler and Bam than Duncan. Lillard would be one, give me Mitchell, Brunson, KD, LeBron, Luka... I think you get the idea. If you're talking only Miami players maybe but I'm not sure with a more offensive PG in Rozier and Jovic at PF, it could be Caleb or Jaquez Jr at SG/SF and both make the defense much better then either Herro or Robinson.

I wasn't referencing anyone not in the Heat, I meant during this build of the players who have been shooters for this team in the last 4 years and half. I can theorize 20 players in the league I would put next to both Jimmy/Bam that would blow Duncan out of the water in fit. Rozier is not a defensive PG, please do not put defender and Rozier in the same sentence scorer yes, rim pressure sure, ball penetration yes. JJJ needs to improve his jumper before he can play as as a starter next to Bam & Jimmy. JJJ best position has been SF/SG since his post game footwork is good enough to win his matchups, he has also done well against bigger guys at PF when their slower, the mobile PF or Bigger SF with speed have been a problem for him basically anyone who could react quickly to his counters and use their lengths to cover for his moves. The problem with Miami is not Defense with their starters since Jovic plays little minutes and they quickly bring switchable wings in the game. The problem with Miami starts and ends with their spacing, its the difference between easy scoring for Jimmy and Bam or difficult/inefficient scoring.

[AirP.]

Are you talking about Duncan losing his starting spot to Max Struss, I believe the only reason that happened wasn't because of defense it was because Duncan forgot how to shoot for a long stretch in our season, he was killing us and we were here talking about the worst contract in the league for two seasons there. Duncan fit and gravity have always been top notch and when his shot was on he has been the best fit next to Jimmy and Bam on this build bar none. Now if he can't hit anything he becomes an absolute trash bin because he was foul prone, terrible defense, and was not the playmaker he is this year. Duncan improving his playmaking and offense feel in his passes in the half court has completely made his game take a diff level. Specially if he is hitting his 3pts at a high clip, now you have a serious offensive weapon in shot creation for the team and shot taker off DHO's and Picks.

If he can't get open he won't shoot well, this is what happens when you get older and slower.

Settle down, there are tons of players who are a better fit next to Butler and Bam than Duncan. Lillard would be one, give me Mitchell, Brunson, KD, LeBron, Luka... I think you get the idea. If you're talking only Miami players maybe but I'm not sure with a more offensive PG in Rozier and Jovic at PF, it could be Caleb or Jaquez Jr at SG/SF and both make the defense much better then either Herro or Robinson.

I wasn't referencing anyone not in the Heat, I meant during this build of the players who have been shooters for this team in the last 4 years and half. I can theorize 20 players in the league I would put next to both Jimmy/Bam that would blow Duncan out of the water in fit. Rozier is not a defensive PG, please do not put defender and Rozier in the same sentence scorer yes, rim pressure sure, ball penetration yes. JJJ needs to improve his jumper before he can play as as a starter next to Bam & Jimmy. JJJ best position has been SF/SG since his post game footwork is good enough to win his matchups, he has also done well against bigger guys at PF when their slower, the mobile PF or Bigger SF with speed have been a problem for him basically anyone who could react quickly to his counters and use their lengths to cover for his moves. The problem with Miami is not Defense with their starters since Jovic plays little minutes and they quickly bring switchable wings in the game. The problem with Miami starts and ends with their spacing, its the difference between easy scoring for Jimmy and Bam or difficult/inefficient scoring.

Would you believe the top 2, 2 man combos for the Heat this year both include Jaquez Jr and 4 of the top 10 has him in them? It's almost like some defense with at least decent efficiency on the offensive end makes the best combos. People sleep way too much on how important defense is and it's why Miami is in good hands in the future with Butler fading at some point and Jaquez Jr developing more to being able to pick up a lot of that slack.

Miami's top 2 man combos this year by point differential.

1. Jaquez Jr and Love +11.3 per 100 possessions in 566 minutes.
2. Jaquez Jr and Butler +8.6 per 100 possessions in 524 minutes.
3. Butler and Robinson +6.2 (560 minutes)
4. Jaquez Jr and Martin +6.1 (651)
5. Butler and Martin +5.4 (543)
6. Butler and Bam +5.0 (745)
7. Jaquez Jr and Robinson +4.6 (864)
8. Butler and Lowery +3.9 (654)
9. Martin and Robinson +3.2 (612)
10 Bam and Robison +1.9 (951) <- not as high as one might think, they're playing different together then they were a few years ago although they will go to doing DHOs from time to time.

Herro first shows up at 14 with Bam at -0.4 (886)

When sorting those 2, 3, 4 and 5 man combos, one thing is constant, Jaquez Jr, Love and Butler are the top 3 guys in all of them which is interesting, 2 2-way guys and the top rebounding rate player on the roster who makes long outlet passes which Butler and Jaquez Jr benefit from. They're interesting combos.

There's a lot of interesting combos this year... go check them out at.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2024/lineups/

[IceColdCubano]

If he can't get open he won't shoot well, this is what happens when you get older and slower.

Settle down, there are tons of players who are a better fit next to Butler and Bam than Duncan. Lillard would be one, give me Mitchell, Brunson, KD, LeBron, Luka... I think you get the idea. If you're talking only Miami players maybe but I'm not sure with a more offensive PG in Rozier and Jovic at PF, it could be Caleb or Jaquez Jr at SG/SF and both make the defense much better then either Herro or Robinson.

I wasn't referencing anyone not in the Heat, I meant during this build of the players who have been shooters for this team in the last 4 years and half. I can theorize 20 players in the league I would put next to both Jimmy/Bam that would blow Duncan out of the water in fit. Rozier is not a defensive PG, please do not put defender and Rozier in the same sentence scorer yes, rim pressure sure, ball penetration yes. JJJ needs to improve his jumper before he can play as as a starter next to Bam & Jimmy. JJJ best position has been SF/SG since his post game footwork is good enough to win his matchups, he has also done well against bigger guys at PF when their slower, the mobile PF or Bigger SF with speed have been a problem for him basically anyone who could react quickly to his counters and use their lengths to cover for his moves. The problem with Miami is not Defense with their starters since Jovic plays little minutes and they quickly bring switchable wings in the game. The problem with Miami starts and ends with their spacing, its the difference between easy scoring for Jimmy and Bam or difficult/inefficient scoring.

Would you believe the top 2, 2 man combos for the Heat this year both include Jaquez Jr and 4 of the top 10 has him in them? It's almost like some defense with at least decent efficiency on the offensive end makes the best combos. People sleep way too much on how important defense is and it's why Miami is in good hands in the future with Butler fading at some point and Jaquez Jr developing more to being able to pick up a lot of that slack.

Miami's top 2 man combos this year by point differential.

1. Jaquez Jr and Love +11.3 per 100 possessions in 566 minutes.
2. Jaquez Jr and Butler +8.6 per 100 possessions in 524 minutes.
3. Butler and Robinson +6.2 (560 minutes)
4. Jaquez Jr and Martin +6.1 (651)
5. Butler and Martin +5.4 (543)
6. Butler and Bam +5.0 (745)
7. Jaquez Jr and Robinson +4.6 (864)
8. Butler and Lowery +3.9 (654)
9. Martin and Robinson +3.2 (612)
10 Bam and Robison +1.9 (951) <- not as high as one might think, they're playing different together then they were a few years ago although they will go to doing DHOs from time to time.

Herro first shows up at 14 with Bam at -0.4 (886)

When sorting those 2, 3, 4 and 5 man combos, one thing is constant, Jaquez Jr, Love and Butler are the top 3 guys in all of them which is interesting, 2 2-way guys and the top rebounding rate player on the roster who makes long outlet passes which Butler and Jaquez Jr benefit from. They're interesting combos.

There's a lot of interesting combos this year... go check them out at.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2024/lineups/

Your extrapolating 2 man combos to see which pair looks best, thats great what are the best 5 man combos is he on them, that's how you judge a fit on group on the floor, basketball is played with 5 men for each team on the floor. If this was 2vs2 game we would do Butler & JJJ taking turns posting up and the other one cutting it be the most efficient elite offense from our team.

If you sort it by 5 man combos, Net rating or Offensive rating, and then use Minutes played I want to look at lineups that have spent more than 50 Minutes together playing I had to cut it down to 40 minutes because of how little our lineups have actually played together, anything under that throw it out the window, I am not looking at some lineup that played 10 minutes together over the course of a 3/4 of a season, the sample size is not useful, also the reasoning behind this is strength of schedule can affect if a particular lineup was successful during a difficult or softer part of the season, so you need more minutes to extrapolate accurate information.

To my surprise Herro seems to be on the top 2 Net rating lineups.

Starting Lineups Only:
#1 T. Rozier, T. Herro, J. Butler, C. Martin, B. Adebayo +24.5 Net Rating @ 41 Minutes played
#2 K. Lowry, T. Herro, J. Butler, K. Love, B. Adebayo +21.5 Net Rating @ 38 Minutes played (Shouldn't count since its under 40M mark but I put it here since its close enough and still says something). Also Lowry isn't here and Love is backup C now.
#3 K. Lowry, D. Robinson, J. Butler, H. Highsmith, B. Adebayo +10.8 Net Rating @ 79 Minutes played
#4 K. Lowry, T. Herro, J. Jaquez, N. Jovic, B. Adebayo +5.2 Net Rating @ 55 Minutes played
All the others are negative Net ratings or too little minutes together to use.

This one is interesting that shows replacing Jimmy for Jacquez essentially maintains it at a positive Net Rating.
Also using your 2 man Net ratings above I can also conclude that the difference here is Jimmy/Duncan combo making up the +5 Net rating difference. Unfortunately Neither Josh Richardson nor Tyler Herro gave us positive Net rating as starting PG, this is tale tell sign of how important a natural PG is to a team.

Then you can extrapolate other cool things like: What is the best lineups when Bam is off the floor, against other teams bench.

Bench Unit Best Rotations:
#1 J. Richardson, D. Robinson, J. Jaquez, J. Butler, K. Love +24.2 Net Rating @ 39 Minutes played (Get Wright in leu of JRich now)
#2 J. Richardson, D. Robinson, J. Jaquez, C. Martin, O. Robinson +19.9 Net Rating @ 43 Minutes played
#3 K. Lowry, J. Richardson, J. Jaquez, J. Butler, K. Love +17.6 Net Rating @ 43 Minutes played

What's interesting here is that Jimmy + Jaquez + Love + Duncan is Jimmy's best lineup with bench unit while Jimmy Plays PF spot.
I guess you would add Wright in this lineup since he is a better version of JRich from a defensive standpoint and still good enough to hit the corner three ball.