Winslow

[Bishop45]

I enjoy watching Winslow but I can understand frustration, lost too often for a 3rd year player

He's essentially a second year player though. We should treat him that way - all the Sixers fans treat Simmons as a rookie and Embiid as a second year. The only difference is they lost their first year and Winslow lost his second.

He was being trialled for a very different role in those 18 games, and one that didn't fit where he was at. Spo does this all the time in the front 1/2, but normally the players end up normalising their efficiency, etc. Justise got injured and now just has statistical diarrhoea representing his "season".

Essentially a second year player, but frustration stems from him being a "third year" player. Permanent in fans minds, to be fair

[twix2500]

The frustration is him missing easy shots that you would expect most college players make. We all know he not a good 3 pt shooter but he has knock that 1 wide open 3pter consistently this yr. Lately he been getting easy back door shots.

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[gom]

James Johnson bothers me a lot more than Justise Winslow at the moment. Wade & JJ missing free throws in the 4th quarter makes me tear my hair out. I already don't have much hair.

I'm looking forward to the Heat extending Winslow. I can't wait to hear the board's reaction. It will be fun.

[Wiltside]

If he can finish strong to the season, he'll pretty much be in the exact same situation as JRich was in last year. People forget that Rich was pretty bad until Waiters went down, and found his game once he could settle on a role in the starting lineup.

[Zasterror]

I hope these growing pains finally manifest themselves

[RexBoyWonder]

If Hassan had Winslow's attitude of team needs first, grinding and improving and playing hard - Hassan would've been an allstar.

I can live with Justise's weakness because his overall demeanor is one of bonafide Heat culture.

I can't hate on a guy that keeps playing smart and hard and trying to improve without selfishness or ego.

[RexBoyWonder]

Good in depth analysis of Justise : strengths, weakness and potential (compared to Stanley Johnson, and another interesting name) :

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/5/17079390/draft-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-dangelo-russell-emmanuel-mudiay-stanley-johnson-justise-winslow

Stanley Johnson vs. Justise Winslow (2015)

Johnson, the eighth pick by Detroit, and Winslow, the 10th pick by Miami, were billed as versatile defenders with offensive skill sets that were works in progress. I gave Winslow the edge at the time because of his leadership and consistency on the defensive end. But you could have made a strong argument for Johnson, too — he was a more advanced ball handler with the sort of quick-twitch athleticism you see in great scorers.

Both players had solid rookie seasons and made an impact in the 2016 playoffs. Remember when Johnson said he was in LeBron’s head? Or when Winslow played center in a second-round series against the Raptors? It wasn’t long ago that both were on the rise. But their progress has stalled ever since their sophomore seasons, when Johnson laid an egg and Winslow underwent season-ending surgery for a torn labrum in his right shoulder.

Johnson has had moments playing hard-nosed defense against the likes of Giannis and C.J. McCollum, which speaks to the immense versatility of the 6-foot-7 245-pounder. But he’s still plagued by consistency issues — he’ll fall into lulls where he misses rotations or doesn’t close out with full effort. It’s possible he’s merely a reflection of his environment, but he was drafted to set a tone defensively, and it hasn’t happened with the Pistons. It needs to soon, because his offense hasn’t come along, either.

Shot Locations: Stanley Johnson vs. Justise Winslow

Shot Area

Johnson % (Attempts)

Winslow % (Attempts)


Shot Area : Restricted Area Johnson % (Attempts) : 63.4% (93) Winslow % (Attempts) : 53.5% (129)
Shot Area : Mid-Range Johnson % (Attempts) : 31.9% (141) Winslow % (Attempts) : 24.3% (103)
Shot Area : 3-Point Johnson % (Attempts) : 29.9% (174) Winslow % (Attempts) : 43.8% (73)

Stats via NBA.com, as of March 3

Johnson is average or worse scoring from all levels of the floor. Winslow, meanwhile, is shooting 43.8 percent from 3 this season, but it’s coming on only 73 attempts (not counting long-range heaves). Until he proves it over an extended period of time, defenses won’t respect him behind the line. Winslow has similarly struggled scoring inside; it can be infuriating watching him drive the lane, only to blow a layup because he can’t elevate enough in traffic. These are the limitations an NBA team will have to live with.


It’s easy to say a player will learn to shoot, but often times they just never do — even ones who can still have long careers without a shot, like Johnson and Winslow. Duke center and 2018 draft prospect Marvin Bagley III is shooting a solid 36 percent from 3, but like Winslow, has shaky mechanics, lacks range, and shoots a low free throw percentage. Texas center Mo Bamba gets labeled “Rudy Gobert with a 3,” but at only 26.5 percent from downtown this season with an inconsistent, funky shooting form, he’s going to have to improve his shot selection and revise his mechanics, much like Johnson. Bagley and Bamba are centers, and have interior scoring skills that give them a chance to thrive even without a jumper. Johnson doesn’t have a secondary skill yet. Winslow does.

Winslow is quietly developing into an interesting player because of his passing ability, so the Heat use Winslow as a both a screener and ball handler in the pick-and-roll.


Winslow is a sturdy screener with a good feel for making the right decision on the roll. The Heat have Hassan Whiteside setting most screens, but they could play more lineups with Winslow at the 4 or 5.


Winslow has always had a great first step with natural feel for passing, and in the pros, he’s learned how to use hesitations to create space. He still can’t shoot off the dribble, and his at-rim finishing is an eyesore, but the feel is there for Winslow to make an impact as a playmaker.

Let’s play a quick game. Who is Player X from the chart below?


Name That Player: Justise Winslow vs. ...


Player

Height

Weight

Wingspan

Reach

Points Per Possession


Player : Winslow Height : 6'7" Weight : 225 Wingspan : 6'10" Reach : 8'8" Points Per Possession : 0.8
Player : Player X Height : 6'7' Weight : 230 Wingspan : 7'1" Reach : 8'9" Points Per Possession : 0.86

Any guesses?

It’s Draymond Green!

It sounds sacrilegious, but Winslow — who has a similar body type, strengths, and weaknesses — is being used like Draymond Lite. Winslow, 21, would’ve been a senior right now had he stayed all four years at Duke. Green played four years at Michigan State, then made a minimal impact as a rookie. It wasn’t until his third season, at age 24, that his abilities became obvious.

Winslow’s defense would have to reach an even higher level to come close to Green’s, but his passing vision and versatility fit the Draymond mold. Johnson shares Winslow’s youth and potential, but lacks the intangible qualities that the Heat forward displays. Teams shouldn’t offer six draft picks for Winslow, but he’d be near the top of my trade target list for young players who are perceived as underperformers. ■

[Wiltside]

Pretty accurate summation of Justise's play so far, as well as strengths and weaknesses.

The mini-Draymond comparison is one that has been around a little while, and is likely the most accurate. I don't think Justise will ever be the menace that Green is - he doesn't have the in your face attitude or shot blocking ability - but he's a canny passer, solid defender and an improving shooter. He could develop into that elite level role player like Green is, in the right system. There's still plenty to like there if he can clean up some of the glaring holes in his game, in particular the finishing ability in the paint. The floater is starting to come back for him a little, but we'll see if it stays. He does get his shot blocked a fair bit, so the floater simply has to be part of the arsenal going forward.

The shot still looks kinda ugly form wise, but results are getting there. He's made 32 threes in 49 games. He made 32 threes in 78 games his rookie year. Only 7 in 18 games last year. While he does still frustrate with the occasional inexplicable airball, right now he's at 42.7% (32/75) from three for the season. Over his first 2 years, he was a 25.8% shooter from deep (39/151), so a 16.9% increase this year to date. While I'm not sure he's truly a 42% shooter given the limited sample size, I think we'd all have settled for a % somewhere in the mid 30's as a positive jump this season.

Lately he's been more aggressive offensively, which I think gets him into the game in other ways. He definitely plays better when he sees an early shot go down, so the real challenge is to persevere, stay confident, and find ways to impact the game when the shot isn't going down.

I don't feel it's a coincidence he's had his best stretch of the season while TJ and Wayne have been out. He's a G/F, and has spent more time at his natural positions in the past week or so. I still worry about overall fit with this roster, particularly when Dion returns next year too.

We do still control his rights for one more year, but have a decision to make on an extension. If he closes strong this year, we may look to package him and Hassan (and perhaps something else) to try and find a star. I don't see how we can move JJ or Dion (or TJ) to free up space and time for him really.

[Bourne85]

Winslow will be a RFA soon. Let’s see if Riley digs us an even bigger hole with his contract. Winslow absolutely better not make more than JRich or even Waiters. Anything more than that is a massive overpay and yet another massive contract on our hands for yet another role player.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Justice traded this offseason. And I’m all for that.

[Flash4thewin]

Pretty accurate summation of Justise's play so far, as well as strengths and weaknesses.

The mini-Draymond comparison is one that has been around a little while, and is likely the most accurate. I don't think Justise will ever be the menace that Green is - he doesn't have the in your face attitude or shot blocking ability - but he's a canny passer, solid defender and an improving shooter. He could develop into that elite level role player like Green is, in the right system. There's still plenty to like there if he can clean up some of the glaring holes in his game, in particular the finishing ability in the paint. The floater is starting to come back for him a little, but we'll see if it stays. He does get his shot blocked a fair bit, so the floater simply has to be part of the arsenal going forward.

The shot still looks kinda ugly form wise, but results are getting there. He's made 32 threes in 49 games. He made 32 threes in 78 games his rookie year. Only 7 in 18 games last year. While he does still frustrate with the occasional inexplicable airball, right now he's at 42.7% (32/75) from three for the season. Over his first 2 years, he was a 25.8% shooter from deep (39/151), so a 16.9% increase this year to date. While I'm not sure he's truly a 42% shooter given the limited sample size, I think we'd all have settled for a % somewhere in the mid 30's as a positive jump this season.

Lately he's been more aggressive offensively, which I think gets him into the game in other ways. He definitely plays better when he sees an early shot go down, so the real challenge is to persevere, stay confident, and find ways to impact the game when the shot isn't going down.

I don't feel it's a coincidence he's had his best stretch of the season while TJ and Wayne have been out. He's a G/F, and has spent more time at his natural positions in the past week or so. I still worry about overall fit with this roster, particularly when Dion returns next year too.

We do still control his rights for one more year, but have a decision to make on an extension. If he closes strong this year, we may look to package him and Hassan (and perhaps something else) to try and find a star. I don't see how we can move JJ or Dion (or TJ) to free up space and time for him really.

I like the mini-Draymond comparison but it also begs the question how important is a player like that with this roster? Without Curry or Klay and im not even going to touch Durant how effective would an inferior Green do, not much as seen by Winslow's play here? Without getting his offense up he just doesnt match up with this roster and he has so far shown he is not good enough to retool the team around. I want him to succeed here, make easier plays to get him to score, get him on a role but we do have Spo as the coach unfortunately and our assistant coaches seems to leave much to be desired on the offensive side of the court. Pat is not a patient person, Winslow needs years of patients to get to where we think, hope he might become.

[Zasterror]

Dat poster doe

[Kobewade11]

12 pts/6 rebs/2 steals per game the last 5. The scoring opportunities are going to dwindle with TJ and Ellington coming back into the rotation but it would be encouraging to see him string together some more productive games like these.

[Mos_Heat]

I still think that his main problem is playing out of position.

[BFRESH44]

I still think that his main problem is playing out of position.

No, his main problem is still his inability to consistently shoot, finish, or make foul shots. You have to be able to do these things at least league average levels in order to be a good starting wing on a playoff caliber team. He's shooting well from 3 this year, but it's very low volume at 1.5 attempts per game. That's a start, though.

He turns 22 in a couple weeks. That's the age Wade was his rookie year. A little perspective on how young he still truly is, and that there is still plenty of time, no matter what anyone says.

[ElDoggo]

He needs to finish at the rim more consistently and shoot better jumpers. His athleticism is great though although he isnt a huge leaper, nor does he really play above the rim much. Wade said it best : Metta World Peace 2.0

[twix2500]

Spoiler:

Good in depth analysis of Justise : strengths, weakness and potential (compared to Stanley Johnson, and another interesting name) :

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/5/17079390/draft-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-dangelo-russell-emmanuel-mudiay-stanley-johnson-justise-winslow

Stanley Johnson vs. Justise Winslow (2015)

Johnson, the eighth pick by Detroit, and Winslow, the 10th pick by Miami, were billed as versatile defenders with offensive skill sets that were works in progress. I gave Winslow the edge at the time because of his leadership and consistency on the defensive end. But you could have made a strong argument for Johnson, too — he was a more advanced ball handler with the sort of quick-twitch athleticism you see in great scorers.

Both players had solid rookie seasons and made an impact in the 2016 playoffs. Remember when Johnson said he was in LeBron’s head? Or when Winslow played center in a second-round series against the Raptors? It wasn’t long ago that both were on the rise. But their progress has stalled ever since their sophomore seasons, when Johnson laid an egg and Winslow underwent season-ending surgery for a torn labrum in his right shoulder.

Johnson has had moments playing hard-nosed defense against the likes of Giannis and C.J. McCollum, which speaks to the immense versatility of the 6-foot-7 245-pounder. But he’s still plagued by consistency issues — he’ll fall into lulls where he misses rotations or doesn’t close out with full effort. It’s possible he’s merely a reflection of his environment, but he was drafted to set a tone defensively, and it hasn’t happened with the Pistons. It needs to soon, because his offense hasn’t come along, either.

Shot Locations: Stanley Johnson vs. Justise Winslow

Shot Area

Johnson % (Attempts)

Winslow % (Attempts)


Shot Area : Restricted Area Johnson % (Attempts) : 63.4% (93) Winslow % (Attempts) : 53.5% (129)
Shot Area : Mid-Range Johnson % (Attempts) : 31.9% (141) Winslow % (Attempts) : 24.3% (103)
Shot Area : 3-Point Johnson % (Attempts) : 29.9% (174) Winslow % (Attempts) : 43.8% (73)

Stats via NBA.com, as of March 3

Johnson is average or worse scoring from all levels of the floor. Winslow, meanwhile, is shooting 43.8 percent from 3 this season, but it’s coming on only 73 attempts (not counting long-range heaves). Until he proves it over an extended period of time, defenses won’t respect him behind the line. Winslow has similarly struggled scoring inside; it can be infuriating watching him drive the lane, only to blow a layup because he can’t elevate enough in traffic. These are the limitations an NBA team will have to live with.


It’s easy to say a player will learn to shoot, but often times they just never do — even ones who can still have long careers without a shot, like Johnson and Winslow. Duke center and 2018 draft prospect Marvin Bagley III is shooting a solid 36 percent from 3, but like Winslow, has shaky mechanics, lacks range, and shoots a low free throw percentage. Texas center Mo Bamba gets labeled “Rudy Gobert with a 3,” but at only 26.5 percent from downtown this season with an inconsistent, funky shooting form, he’s going to have to improve his shot selection and revise his mechanics, much like Johnson. Bagley and Bamba are centers, and have interior scoring skills that give them a chance to thrive even without a jumper. Johnson doesn’t have a secondary skill yet. Winslow does.

Winslow is quietly developing into an interesting player because of his passing ability, so the Heat use Winslow as a both a screener and ball handler in the pick-and-roll.


Winslow is a sturdy screener with a good feel for making the right decision on the roll. The Heat have Hassan Whiteside setting most screens, but they could play more lineups with Winslow at the 4 or 5.


Winslow has always had a great first step with natural feel for passing, and in the pros, he’s learned how to use hesitations to create space. He still can’t shoot off the dribble, and his at-rim finishing is an eyesore, but the feel is there for Winslow to make an impact as a playmaker.

Let’s play a quick game. Who is Player X from the chart below?


Name That Player: Justise Winslow vs. ...


Player

Height

Weight

Wingspan

Reach

Points Per Possession

Player : Winslow Height : 6'7" Weight : 225 Wingspan : 6'10" Reach : 8'8" Points Per Possession : 0.8
Player : Player X Height : 6'7' Weight : 230 Wingspan : 7'1" Reach : 8'9" Points Per Possession : 0.86

Any guesses?

It’s Draymond Green!

Spoiler:

It sounds sacrilegious, but Winslow — who has a similar body type, strengths, and weaknesses — is being used like Draymond Lite. Winslow, 21, would’ve been a senior right now had he stayed all four years at Duke. Green played four years at Michigan State, then made a minimal impact as a rookie. It wasn’t until his third season, at age 24, that his abilities became obvious.

Winslow’s defense would have to reach an even higher level to come close to Green’s, but his passing vision and versatility fit the Draymond mold. Johnson shares Winslow’s youth and potential, but lacks the intangible qualities that the Heat forward displays. Teams shouldn’t offer six draft picks for Winslow, but he’d be near the top of my trade target list for young players who are perceived as underperformers. ■

[Hallstar]

I still think that his main problem is playing out of position.

No, his main problem is still his inability to consistently shoot, finish, or make foul shots. You have to be able to do these things at least league average levels in order to be a good starting wing on a playoff caliber team. He's shooting well from 3 this year, but it's very low volume at 1.5 attempts per game. That's a start, though.

He turns 22 in a couple weeks. That's the age Wade was his rookie year. A little perspective on how young he still truly is, and that there is still plenty of time, no matter what anyone says.

Not contract wise though, that's the problem. I don't hate him, but when guys don't perform early it puts teams in a bind.

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[Wiltside]

Thing is, if recent play really is Justise starting to figure it out (not sold yet but one can hope), we should still be able to lock him up pretty cheap. Probably less than Rich got last offseason, something like 4/32?

[orphicwhip]

Thing is, if recent play really is Justise starting to figure it out (not sold yet but one can hope), we should still be able to lock him up pretty cheap. Probably less than Rich got last offseason, something like 4/32?

If Winslow finishes the rest of the year averaging 14/15 ppg(not whole season average but March through playoffs) then he's not accepting 4/32, I could see him taking the QO and trying to get more like what Jimmy Butler did.

If we can move Whiteside or Waiters in the offseason, that would free up the cap quite a bit.

[twix2500]

Thing is, if recent play really is Justise starting to figure it out (not sold yet but one can hope), we should still be able to lock him up pretty cheap. Probably less than Rich got last offseason, something like 4/32?

If Winslow finishes the rest of the year averaging 14/15 ppg(not whole season average but March through playoffs) then he's not accepting 4/32, I could see him taking the QO and trying to get more like what Jimmy Butler did.

If we can move Whiteside or Waiters in the offseason, that would free up the cap quite a bit.

Winslow hasnt come close to playing at JRich contract even the past few games. Some of yall get WAAAY ahead of yourselves when it comes to Winslow. He has been decent he past few games. He been playing at McGruder level. Which is an improvement and its good to see. I know some of you are eager to say something positive in regards to Winslow because of all the beat down he been getting and deservedly so. I happy to see he is making open shots that teams are giving him. Sooner or later teams might start defending him, then its going to be can he score efficiently under pressure. Improvement but he has a long way to go.