The Retooling Thread: What do we do now

[tsherkin]

If Marion opts out, and they resign Dorrel for about 3-5 per year and a top 2 draft pick, how much money would they have? I'm guessing from your post tsherkin, that they would have about 20 million?

If Marion opts out and Dorell is signed for $3M, then there should be about $17M free.

[MartyConlonJr]

Heat are at $36,184,781 with Wade, Smush, Blount, Haslem, Banks and Cook. Dorell at $3,000,000, + our draft pick at $4,019,000 (That's the salary of the first pick) leaves us with 8 players, so we need three cap holds of $442,114

$36,184,781
$3,000,000
$4,019,000
$442,114
$442,114
$442,114
------------
$44,530,123

Salary cap is expected to be about $58,000,000 leaving us with $13,469,977 for a free agent. If the salary cap is $58,000,000, then the max salary for a guy like Brand, Maggette, Artest or Davis is $17,400,000 (30% of salary cap), $14,500,000 for a guy like Arenas (25% of salary cap)and $20,300,000 for a guy like Iverson or Jermaine (35% of salary cap).

[LEIF]

Marion isnt going to opt out, he wont get $17-20 million from any of the very few teams that have cap space, he will have to realize a sizeable extension from us is his best route to guarentee a substantial payday until he is 35 years old.

our most likely scenario is Marion resigned long term, we use our draft pick combined with Haslem/Blount to attract a team like the Clippers in hopes we can pry Elton Brand away via trade.

Elton Brand and the Clippers 08 First Rounder (probably 6-9 range, where we could select someone like Augustin of Texas) for Haslem/Blount/Beasley and a future first rounder.

[Wade2k6]

Marion isnt going to opt out, he wont get $17-20 million from any of the very few teams that have cap space, he will have to realize a sizeable extension from us is his best route to guarentee a substantial payday until he is 35 years old.

our most likely scenario is Marion resigned long term, we use our draft pick combined with Haslem/Blount to attract a team like the Clippers in hopes we can pry Elton Brand away via trade.

Elton Brand and the Clippers 08 First Rounder (probably 6-9 range, where we could select someone like Augustin of Texas) for Haslem/Blount/Beasley and a future first rounder.

I'm sorry but if we get the first pick of the draft I'm not trading Beasley along with Haslem and a future 1st for Brand. Beasley is too good a prospect to give up on.

If i were the GM i just wouldnt be in favor of trading a 19 year old stud for a 29 year old PF who's coming off a season long injury. Not only that, but he will want a 5 year deal when his contracts up, which means we would be paying him 14-15 million when he's 34-35 years old.

[LEIF]

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I'm sorry but if we get the first pick of the draft I'm not trading Beasley along with Haslem and a future 1st for Brand. Beasley is too good a prospect to give up on.

If i were the GM i just wouldnt be in favor of trading a 19 year old stud for a 29 year old PF who's coming off a season long injury. Not only that, but he will want a 5 year deal when his contracts up, which means we would be paying him 14-15 million when he's 34-35 years old.

maybe the deal I mentioned is a bit too steap a price but I could absolutely see Riley trade the chance to draft Beasley for a vet like Brand.

[Wade2k6]

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maybe the deal I mentioned is a bit too steap a price but I could absolutely see Riley trade the chance to draft Beasley for a vet like Brand.

I could see him doing that too. If we fell out of the top 2 (rose or Beasley) then I'd do the deal you mentioned. Brand would be a major upgrade over Haslem, while you could still grab a very good player at 6-8. Problem is they probably would want the pick in the top 2.

Brand, 08 first for Haslem, 08 first, Blount, and future 1st. (assuming we fell out of the top 2)

[Hoops23]

our most likely scenario is Marion resigned long term, we use our draft pick combined with Haslem/Blount to attract a team like the Clippers in hopes we can pry Elton Brand away via trade.

Elton Brand and the Clippers 08 First Rounder (probably 6-9 range, where we could select someone like Augustin of Texas) for Haslem/Blount/Beasley and a future first rounder.

The question is, which do you prefer, Marion or Haslem/Beasley/Blount & a future 1st?

I think I'll choose the latter than Marion. Since I preferred that package, I'll let Marion walked and sign Brnad in the '09 off-season. Not only it keeps us the picks & Haslem, its a safe move because we can sign Brand long term than the trade where there is no assurance he will resign with Miami. With the trade also, while we're getting Brand it also weaken the frontline position because Miami is giving out three big man in Blount, Haslem and Beasley.

Since Brand is going to be a free agent, I think the clipps will bargain for him than losing him for nothing. The Lakers got a cheap deal for Gasol, much more for a free agent to be.

[Mourning_Heat_33]

S&T JWill to GSW for Pietrus

S&T Ricky + Wright + future unprotected first round pick to MEM for Miller

Blount + Cook + Smush + #1 or #2 pick to LAC for Brand + #8 pick

Extend Marion.

Resign Mourning.

Draft Thabeet (7'3 defensive beast from UConn at 8th pick)

Sign Chris Duhon with MLE.

Wade 35 mins
Miller 30 mins
Marion 35 mins
Haslem 30 mins
Brand 35 mins

Duhon 28 mins
Pietrus 28 mins
Mourning 19 mins

Deep reserves: Banks, Quinn, Barron, Anthony, Thabeet

Good team. Time to get NBA 2K9 and make it.

[MartyConlonJr]

S&T Ricky + Wright + future unprotected first round pick to MEM for Miller

Wow, at least put some protection on the pick. Its's a 2011 pick at the earliest. Who knows where we'll be then. Wade, Miller and Brand could all have left by then, and Marion will be 33.

[SA37]

*snicker*

I don't mean to be an arse but do you really believe that Marion is going to take a $5M/year paycut to play for the Heat after the season they're having now? I find that stunningly unlikely. Man's on schedule to be paid over $17M next year, remember, and is making over $16M this year.

He isn

[heat4life]

Let's not forget that if we can't land Brand because we don't have enough money to offer him, there'll be other FA at a lower price tag like Jermaine O'Neal and/or our own Lamar Odom. We could sign either of them for around $11-$12 millions per season. With Wade and lottery pick on the bag already, add one of those players and Marion and we could have a nice core right on their prime.

[SA37]

Heat are at $36,184,781 with Wade, Smush, Blount, Haslem, Banks and Cook. Dorell at $3,000,000, + our draft pick at $4,019,000 (That's the salary of the first pick) leaves us with 8 players, so we need three cap holds of $442,114

$36,184,781
$3,000,000
$4,019,000
$442,114
$442,114
$442,114
------------
$44,530,123

Aww damnit, I forgot about the cap holds. Boo! Thanks Marty!

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He isn

[LEIF]

S&T JWill to GSW for Pietrus

S&T Ricky + Wright + future unprotected first round pick to MEM for Miller

Blount + Cook + Smush + #1 or #2 pick to LAC for Brand + #8 pick

Extend Marion.

Resign Mourning.

Draft Thabeet (7'3 defensive beast from UConn at 8th pick)

Sign Chris Duhon with MLE.

Wade 35 mins
Miller 30 mins
Marion 35 mins
Haslem 30 mins
Brand 35 mins

Duhon 28 mins
Pietrus 28 mins
Mourning 19 mins

Deep reserves: Banks, Quinn, Barron, Anthony, Thabeet

Good team. Time to get NBA 2K9 and make it.

no one is going to give something up to sign Ricky Davis or Jason Williams, especially Memphis, they only wanted Davis or Williams because their contract is coming off the books.

[Lane1974]

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no one is going to give something up to sign Ricky Davis or Jason Williams, especially Memphis, they only wanted Davis or Williams because their contract is coming off the books.

Apparently they didn't but should have. They are stoopid.

[SA37]

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I think Marion'll push for at least $13, personally, banking on his value as a great rebounder and a defender and a guy who doesn't need plays run for him to score in bunches. And frankly, I'd rather have the cap space than Marion.

Well, obviously he is going to push for as much as he can.

On one end you'll have Miami comparing the contract they want to give him to the likes of Gerald Wallace (6-years, $57 million), Tayshaun Prince (5-years, $48 million), and Josh Howard (4-years, $40 million).

Marion's stance would probably be, 'Hey, if Kirilenko (6-years, $86 million), Peja Stojakovic (5-years, $64 million), Lamar Odom (6-years, $65 million), and Rashard Lewis (6-years $118 million) got those kind of contracts and I am a better player, I should get a better contract than that.'

I don't mind seeing Marion stay as long as his contract isn't absurd. It is a tricky situation simply because he is only worth keeping around if we can form a competitive team quickly.

[MartyConlonJr]

Marion is in a bad spot to opt out this year.

Teams already over cap:
Boston, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Indiana, Milwaukee, Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Denver, Portland, Utah, Lakers, Phoenix,

Teams with ~MLE or less:
New Jersey (6.2 mill), Toronto (2.9 mill), Orlando (3.1 mill), Washington (4 mill), San Antonio (4.2 mill), Minnesota (2.9 mill), Clippers (4.7 mill), Seattle (6 mill), Sacramento (4.2 mill)

Teams with > MLE:
Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte, Memphis, Golden State

Chicago can't offer more than about $9 mill per, and thats if they choose to let Gordon and Deng go.

Atlanta can offer $7 million, as long as they let Josh Smith and Childress go.

Memphis have no RFA's, player options or anything. they have $14 mill in cap space, but will likely have 2 draft picks bringing that number down under $10 mill.

Golden State can offer around $8 mill, if they choose to let Andris Biendris go.

The only teams that can offer Marion a starting deal above $12 million:

Philadelphia would either have to renounce the rights to Andre Igoudala, or pay him significantly less than $8.5 million to re-sign. Marion doesn't make heaps of sense to a team that renounces their best player and is that far away from competing.

Charlotte can offer big money to Marion, but they need to let Adam Morrison go (no biggie) and either let Okafor go, or convince him to sign for the vet minimum.

[CRHeel94]

interesting that he called Miller a "perfect piece" that they missed out on, it's a shame because we probably can't trade for him in the offseason, we could have given them expirings for this year.

no I am really bummed, looking over the 08 free agents, there is not one major shooter who could be a starter/6th man out there.

While he doesn't have the same range as Miller, James Jones is an interesting name, but I think a lot of teams will be interested in him.

[CRHeel94]

I think we're headed towards an extension with Marion, say 4 years at $12M per which would be a pretty good deal in my book for both sides. If he asks for more he'll ge traded, but I'm not sure he would beat that number by a big amount on the open market.

*snicker*

I don't mean to be an arse but do you really believe that Marion is going to take a $5M/year paycut to play for the Heat after the season they're having now? I find that stunningly unlikely. Man's on schedule to be paid over $17M next year, remember, and is making over $16M this year.

If Riles doesn't want to deal with that, he's a huge expiring contract and definitely has trade value.

Actually, I not only think it's feasible but also very likely. The market for small forwards, as has been posted, is in the $10-15 range. I put it at $12 as a midpoint. If he pushes for much more than that the Heat will not give him an extension which means he would likely be traded next year or worst case for him, his contract expires in 09 and he can only sign with the three or four teams with big cap space. Would one of those teams sign him for more than $13M? Maybe some team takes a flier (after all you only need one GM to pull the trigger). By signing a 4 year extension with the Heat he is exchanging some money off the top of his contract for more years at a very nice wage level.

I actually thingk the Heat has the upper hand in that negotiation. They have a bigger decision to make: is Shawn Marion a cornerstone guy next to Wade? If the answer is yes, I would bet we'll see an extension in the 4 years $50M range.

[MartyConlonJr]

Marion in the 09 offseason?

Teams already over cap:
Boston, New York, Phoenix, Lakers, Dallas, Houston, Orlando

Teams with ~MLE or less: Cleveland (3.4 mill), Indiana (2.8 mill), Denver (2.6 mill), San Antonio (2.9 mill)

Teams with > MLE: Detroit (11 mill), Milwaukee (12 mill), New Orleans (12.7 mill), Utah (8 mill), New Jersey (12.6 mill), Toronto (12.2 mill), Sacramento (10 mill)

Teams with > $12 mill
Portland (30 mill), Washington (18 mill), Minnesota (20 mill), Clippers (28 mill), Seattle (33 mill), Philadelphia (34.8 mill), Chicago (21.6 mill), Atlanta (34.2 mill), Charlotte (20.2 mill), Memphis (30.8 mill), Golden State (27 mill)

Portland will surely take the Oden, Aldridge and Roy team options, putting them at about $15 mill in cap space. Add in their next 2 draft picks cap holds and they are down around the $12 mill mark.

Washington will re-sign Arenas the year before throwing them back into the MLE range.

Minnesota have team options on Foye and Brewer, they will take, as well as this years draft pick, next years for them and ours taking them under $10 mill in space (not even including Telfair and McCants RFA)

Clippers will only have that type of cap space if Brand leaves. If Brand goes, then I doubt it is enticing for a 31 year old to go to play with Kaman, Mobley, Tim Thomas and a draft pick or two. They would be rebuilding

Seattle will likely take options on Durant and Green and have two very high draft picks of their own, as well as 2 additional picks leaving them with around $15 mill to sign Marion to the position their franchise player plays.

Philadelphia have team options on Young, Carney and Jason Smith. Assuming Igoudala is signed for 10 mill or so, and add in two mid range draft picks and they would still have about $18 mill in cap space. This is concievable, but I don't think they'd want to pay Iggy and Marion that type of money if still in a rebuilding phase.

Chicago will have no money assuming they take player options on guys like Noah, Tyrus and Sefolosha, and give Deng, and possibly Gordon extensions.

Atlanta will likely resign Marvin Williams (at least 6 mill), take team options on Horford and Acie Law, and have signed Josh Smith to an 8 mill or more contract. That would leave them with around $13 mill, and loaded at the swing positions where Marion plays.

Charlotte, of course, will extend Okafor near the max the year before, although anything over $8 mill will put them out of Marions range.

Memphis will likely take team options on Conley, Gay, Crittenton and Lowry, putting them closer to $20 mill under the cap. Add in two high draft picks around 3 mill each and the Lakers pick around 1 mill and they are back around the $13 mill mark.

Golden State will re-sign Baron Davis for at least 15 mill per, sign Biendris for at least 6 per, and take the Bellinelli and Wright options, giving them no cap room.

So as it stands, 2 seasons away, most teams can't offer too much, unless Marion wants to go to teams with good young players at his position with the 76ers (Iggy), Memphis (Gay), Seattle (Durant) or Atlanta (Smith).

Or go to a Clippers team that was stripped bare (Brand leaving).

The only really enticing team that is logical is the Blazers.

[tsherkin]

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Actually, I not only think it's feasible but also very likely. The market for small forwards, as has been posted, is in the $10-15 range. I put it at $12 as a midpoint. If he pushes for much more than that the Heat will not give him an extension which means he would likely be traded next year or worst case for him, his contract expires in 09 and he can only sign with the three or four teams with big cap space. Would one of those teams sign him for more than $13M? Maybe some team takes a flier (after all you only need one GM to pull the trigger). By signing a 4 year extension with the Heat he is exchanging some money off the top of his contract for more years at a very nice wage level.

It's a thought, but I don't think it's much of one. I think he'll take his player's option to get one last year at peak salary and that'll screw Miami's chances for any kind of free agent pick-up this summer unless someone wants to come here for the MLE.

Then I think he'll definitely push the high end of the 13-15 range.

I actually thingk the Heat has the upper hand in that negotiation. They have a bigger decision to make: is Shawn Marion a cornerstone guy next to Wade? If the answer is yes, I would bet we'll see an extension in the 4 years $50M range.

I don't think Riley is that stupid; Marion isn't a cornerstone piece and he clearly wants a big man. I think what we're likely to see is a sign-and-trade, where Marion gets his extension and gets moved for something more valuable.